How to Play Fantasy Baseball - Basic Draft Strategy By Chris Liss RotoWire Editor Whether your league uses a draft, auction, or any other method to allocate players to their rightful owners, there are certain principles and considerations you ought to take into account. I list and explain them below in order of importance. 1. Be prepared. I am not an advocate of the mind-numbing process whereby you add up the total dollars to be spent in your league and allocate the proper amounts to every single player that might possibly be acquired. If you want to do this, good for you, but I don’t believe it’s necessary. What I do believe is necessary is a familiarity with every single major league regular and all of the important bench players on every team. Yes, you ought to know who the Florida Marlins outfielders are, and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, too. Every team in the major leagues will win forty-five games, score runs, and amass a few saves. Chances are that there will be a few players on even the worst teams that can help you fill in for an injured starter, jump start you in stolen bases, or even emerge as one of your stars. That these teams exist means that opportunities exist, and, in my mind, just about any player with enough talent to make it to the pros has the potential to put up numbers if he gets the chance to play. Know who these players are, whether they can run or hit for power, whether they have closer-type stuff, and whether they will get a chance to be on the field in ’99. 2. Make sure you get the best available players relative to the position(s) at which they’re eligible. To some, this is an obvious point, but I am always surprised when talking to veteran rotisserie owners who routinely ignore it. I suggested to a friend of mine recently that in a single list draft (one where all MLB players are included), I’d select Alex Rodriguez as the first pick. He said he’d take Ken Griffey, Jr. I said: "But Arod’s a 40/40 guy and a shortstop!" He said, "Yeah, but Griffey could hit 60 homers." The fact is, if Arod hits 40 homers and steals 40 bases again, he’ll likely be worth more than Griffey even if Griffey does crack 60. Why? Because Griffey is an outfielder and Arod is a shortstop. If your league has ten teams, each of which has five outfielders, 1 shortstop, and 1 middle infielder, then you know that you need only consider the top 50 outfielders and the top 15 or so shortstops. Anyone worse than that will not be drafted, even in the last round. Consider who the 50th best outfielder might be this year. It might be Brian McRae of the Mets, who was a 21/20 guy last year, or it could be Bobby Abreu of the Phillies, an up and coming hitter who batted .312 with 17 HR and 19 steals. Now compare that to the 15th best shortstop, possibly Jose Valentin or Gary DiSarcina? Valentin batted .224 with 16 HR and 10 SB. Disarcina did hit .287 but with only 3 HR and 56 RBI. The point is that if you get ARod, you have filled your SS slot, and thus still need five outfielders, but if you take Griffey, you’ll need four outfielders and a SS. So when you take Arod over Griffey, you get his numbers plus the difference between an average outfielder and an average shortstop. And you must always remember to factor in that difference when drafting. 3. Factor likelihood of injury into player values ahead of time. Another obvious, but often overlooked point. Larry Walker in Coors Field when healthy can put up numbers with the best of them. Just take a look at his monstrous ’97 campaign where he hit 49 HR, stole 33 bases, and batted .366. But Larry Walker has bad knees. In 1996, he managed only 272 at bats, and in ’98 only 454. Last year, I witnessed an auction filled with knowledgeable owners where Walker went for the same price as Griffey. Although his upside is equal to Griffey’s, he’s less likely to achieve it. Therefore, Walker should have been valued more in the Ray Lankford range, even though he could turn out to be a dominant player. Take the value out up front. Don’t draft Walker too high and then complain that you had bad luck if he gets hurt. 4. A great starting pitcher is usually the most valuable player on a rotisserie team, but pitchers are particularly unpredictable, and that unpredictability should be factored in ahead of time. I believe an ace starter is usually going to be the most valuable player on a given roto team. Why? Because in most roto formats you have only nine or ten pitchers, two or three of which are closers. That leaves roughly seven starters. Those seven starters will, in most formats, contribute to at least three, if not four categories, Wins, Ks, ERA, and sometimes WHIP. On the other hand, most roto formats have roughly thirteen offensive players contributing to four or five categories (HR, RBI, RUNS, SB, AVG.). Even if you conflate the middle infield positions and catchers into three rather than five players due to their limited production (which is dubious with Nomar, ARod, Biggio, and Piazza out there), you still have eleven players contributing to five categories versus seven pitchers contributing to four. That means that the average starting pitcher gives you four sevenths of a category, and the average hitter gives you five elevenths. Do the math. Four sevenths is 44/77, five elevenths is 35/77. That’s more than 25% more value for the pitcher. So starting pitchers are where the value is. (Unless your league has more hitting categories than pitching in which case it is much more even). That said, pitchers’ performances are harder to predict than their lumber-wielding counterparts. This is partly because pitchers are more likely to get injured than position players and are less able to play through injuries, and partly because pitchers are far more dependent on the performance of their teams than hitters. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched a rotten bullpen cost one of my starters a win. Bad defense, bad hitters, and even bad base running can also rob you of wins. ERA can be damaged by bad middle relief or bad defense. Hell, a manager might pull your guy in a tie game for a thirty-eight year old left-handed specialist. In sum, only Ks are in the pitcher’s hands, and one category does not a reliable player make. In general, take great pitchers just after great hitters, but before very good hitters. Take very good pitchers, just after very good hitters, but before good hitters... you get the idea. 5. Where the player plays and whom he plays against makes a big difference. Another obvious point with not so obvious implications. Everyone knows not to take Rockies pitchers and to go after Rockies hitters. Lefties hit home runs at Yankee stadium, righties hit doubles off the green monster at Fenway. Albert Belle might hit sixty at Camden Yards; Mike Piazza will be better off at Shea than at Dodger Stadium. Okay, you know all that. The second point relates to the competition. A Minnesota Twins pitcher must face the Yankees’, Indians’, Mariners’, Orioles’, Rangers’, and Angels’ lineups, replete with the DH, roughly half the time he takes the mound. If his name ain’t Brad Radke (who had a woeful second half last year) he probably doesn’t deserve a spot on your squad (unless you are playing in an AL only universe, or have 15-20 teams in your league). The point is that with the DH in the AL, National League pitchers are generally better for ERA and Ks, because the pitcher is an easy out, a welcome rest, and often a strikeout. That said, superstars like Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez are good enough largely to transcend the quality of competition, though all three had ERAs significantly higher than NL studs Maddux, Brown, and Glavine in ’98. 6. Don’t believe the opinions that you read. Gather the facts and decide for yourself. Just because I’m writing this article doesn’t mean I have a clue as to what’s going to happen in MLB next year. I may have all kinds of knowledge and roto experience, but for some reason I am out of the zone this year. My hand has slipped from the pulse of the game. Don’t take ARod first just because I said I would (I may change my mind between now and draft day anyway). Decide for yourself. What does it mean to decide for yourself? It means to make an informed decision based on the facts. Statistics are facts. Sure, an umpire’s opinion on an error-call may have crept in there, but for the most part, they are facts. Off-season injury prognoses, (these are often opinions of doctors but medical experts are held to a higher standard that roto-experts, so take them as fact), and off-season training regimens are facts. Last year I read about the talented but injury-prone Brian Jordan working out in the off-season with Jackie Joyner Kersee and her husband. I figured he was probably learning how to stretch properly and run with better form, thereby reducing the likelihood of injury. I got him cheap, and he produced very nicely, even though most of the "experts" had written him off as a bad draft-day investment. That said, read experts opinions and cheat sheets if you like, but don’t buy into their conclusions. Scour them for the hard facts upon which their conclusions are based, and then make your own decisions. Over time, (and it may take a little time before you get good at it), you will blow away anyone too timid to make their own roto calls. 7. Almost always take a potential star over a known mediocrity. During an auction in which I participated last year, I needed two more outfielders to complete my roster. Among those remaining were BJ Surhoff, Lance Johnson, Shawn Green, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon, and Jeffery Hammonds. I had wanted to go with Shawn Green and Guerrero, because these were two players with speed, power, and opportunities to play. But before I put in my bids, I phoned a friend and asked for his advice. He declared as if it were obvious: "Lance Johnson’s by far the best outfielder left." I ended up going with Green, who had a monster year for me, and Johnson, who got hurt. Unfortunately someone else got Guererro’s 38 HR and .324 average. Not only did I violate principle six (trusting someone else’s opinion), but I settled for a player who at his very best can give excellent SB and RUN production, along with good batting average, but actually damages your team in HR and RBI. With his best year (1996) two years behind him, I thought Lance Johnson was a mediocre roto outfielder, but, because I feared making a mistake, I went ahead and picked him anyway. Don’t fear making mistakes. If a player is slated to start and has shown signs of breaking out like Green and Guerrero did in ’97, don’t pass him up for a BJ Surhoff or a Lance Johnson. Set out to win the league that you’re in; don’t play simply to avoid last place. That said, don’t be ridiculous either. Green and Guerrero had demonstrated promise at the major league level, had tools, and were getting an opportunity to play. I wouldn’t take Troy Glaus or Adrian Beltre over Travis Fryman just yet until I witnessed some success from them at the major league level. But I would take Fernando Tatis over Cal Ripken, Jr. In general, be smart about it, but always keep an eye on the upside. If you keep these seven principles in mind, you should do very well in your roto draft and hopefully enjoy the process. Article first appeared 1/31/99