Paul Wilson

Wilson is the putative ace for the Reds, but he's no better than a league average starter. Even if he's owned at a cheap price he makes for a lousy keeper because there's precious little upside to be gained. He doesn't strike out many hitters, he pitches for a team that gives him little defensive support and he's a health risk to boot. At best he's an innings-eater that you can use in spot starts.

Wilson often had a problem getting loose before a game, struggling most frequently in the first inning. He allowed a whopping 11 first-inning homers (24 total), and batters hit .349/.420/.690 against him overall in the first inning. Later in the season, Wilson was shut down due to biceps tendinitis and inflammation in his surgically repaired shoulder. Durability is an obvious question-mark for 2004. Oh yeah, he's also a lousy fighter (see Farnsworth, Kyle).

Wilson was a respectable 6-9, 4.13 at the end of August for Tampa Bay last season – pretty darn good, given how hard it is to get run support while pitching for the Rays. Then Wilson came down with a tired arm in September and was pretty awful down the stretch. He'll turn 30 in the spring, and he's as healthy as he's ever been since blowing out his arm in the minors, so the Wilson we saw for most of 2002 may be as good as it gets. His most effective fantasy role would be pitching for a run-producing team that'll utilize him for no more than 170 innings or so as a fourth or fifth starter. Signing with the Reds gives him that opportunity.