Ryan Vogelsong

On the surface, Vogelsong's 2015 season looks like a disappointment when you look at his 9-11 record and 4.67 ERA. However, it wasn't all that bad if you were able to start him exclusively at home. Like many Giants' starters, his home/road splits are glaring. He posted a 3.07 ERA at AT&T Park compared to a 5.90 ERA on the road. Still, the overall results weren't strong enough to warrant standard league consideration. From an arsenal standpoint, he continues to rely on a 91 mph fastball with two breaking balls and a changeup. At this advanced stage of his career, he will need to induce groundballs and rely on excellent command to have success at the big league level. Also, the ballpark he ends up calling home will have a big impact on his 2016 fantasy value. If he ends up back in San Francisco or in another pitcher-friendly park, then he will have deep league appeal for whenever he pitches at home.

Vogelsong rejuvenated his career with San Francisco at age 33 and enjoyed a pair of strong seasons before crumbling in 2013. It was easy to think that the miracle run was toast as a fractured hand cost him two and a half months, his velocity plummeted and his strikeout rate bottomed out. How much of it was the hand and how much of it was a skills drop? His 2014 suggests the former was more to blame. He didn’t wow with a 4.00 ERA, but he took on a full workload, regained his strikeout rate and probably deserved something a bit better than that ERA when you look at the indicators. As a free agent, there is a worry that he leaves San Francisco and loses some of what spurred his rebirth, namely that home ballpark. He posted a 3.12 ERA in 366 innings at home the last four years, and it’d be even better without the 5.29 nightmare from 2013. After re-signing with the Giants in January, the song should be similar with the veteran right-hander in 2015.

Vogelsong chased away the skeptics after repeating his 2011 success in 2012, but that skepticism has returned after having a horrific 2013 season. He had a 7.19 ERA through the first couple months of the season, and when it looked like he was finally putting a dominant start together, he got hit by a pitch while trying to bunt and was out for a couple of months with a broken hand. Vogelsong returned in August and put up a 4.55 ERA in the second half, but it wasn't nearly enough to save a lost season. A likely cause of his poor results could be a drop in velocity of approximately one mph off of all of his pitches from a year ago. His two-seam fastball also didn't have as much bite as it did in 2012, and it led to a -9.4 wFB after he posted a 9.5 wFB in 2012 and a 16.3 wFB in 2011. It is important to note that Vogelsong pitched deep into the the 2012 postseason and also partook in the 2013 World Baseball Classic prior to the season, so his drop in velocity could have been the result of a tired arm. It could also simply be that he is 36 years old, and his window for dominant pitching closed quickly after being opened so late in his career. Re-signed by the Giants in December, Vogelsong will attempt to chew up innings every fifth day again in 2014.

Vogelsong followed up his surprise 2011 campaign with a strong performance in 2012. As expected, his ERA increased to 3.37, but his strikeout rate also increased to 7.5 K/9 while he lowered his walk rate to a career-best 2.9 BB/9. His below average BABIP (.284) and HR/FB rate (8.2 percent) fall right in line with his career rates, and he has pitched extremely well in AT&T Park since last year (2.15 in 2011 and 2.79 in 2012). In addition, his below average line drive rate (18.5 percent) helped to contribute to his BABIP. It is more likely that Vogelsong will finish with an ERA above 3.50 this season as his peripherals will somewhat regress.

Vogelsong finished 2011 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.252 WHIP, and while his 139:61 K:BB ratio over 179.2 innings wasn't overly impressive, he was no fluke. There's little doubt his ERA will climb next season after leaving 80.4 percent of his baserunners stranded and carrying a .280 BABIP, but he'll enter 2012 as the Giants' No. 4 starter, and there's no reason to expect him to be a major bust, even if regression is a certainty. Just make sure not to draft him off last year's numbers, but he's in the right park to remain plenty valuable, especially if others in your league don't believe in him at all.

The Pirates are considering Vogelsong for the fifth starter's spot after he showed promise out of the bullpen with a decent second-half performance in 2005. Pittsburgh's primary return in the ill-fated 2001 Jason Schmidt deal, Vogelsong has gotten every possible chance to succeed at the major-league level. He hasn't been good. In 2004, he sported the major's worst earned run average among qualified starters, with a 6.50 ERA in 133 innings. Last year he started off on the same track, posting a pre All-Star game mark of 5.49. He cleaned things up a bit after the break, with a 3.49 ERA. It will take a lot to undo the last couple years of futility. He's always had the stuff to be successful, but has yet to put it all together.

Vogelsong secured the fifth spot in the Pittsburgh starting rotation after his outstanding performance in Spring Training last year, but he struggled with his command all season and lost his starting job to Sean Burnett before returning to the rotation after Kris Benson was traded in July. He’ll compete for the fifth rotation spot once again this spring, but unless he is light’s out, he figures to head north as a swing-man.

Vogelsong bounced back well enough from elbow troubles last season, but his upside is limited. Acquired from the Giants in the 2001 Jason Schmidt give-away, he has showed flashes of competence, but he will be just one of many fighting for the job as Pittsburgh's fifth starter.

Elbow surgery at the end of 2001 cost Vogelsong most of 2002. He made a dozen starts in the minors, almost none of them effective. He’ll have his ups and downs in 2003, and the Pirates would do well to let him work through them at Nashville until he has some success.