Joe Sheehan's Team Predictions
Ranking all the teams in baseball, from #30 through #1. Projected records are primarily
based on projected runs scored and allowed, although I have made some manual
adjustments to account for bullpens - which can affect run distribution and
cause records to separate from RS/RA - and to correct rounding errors.
#30. Kansas City Royals (60-102, fifth in AL Central, 644 RS, 838 RA). The
signings made this winter will push a mediocre offense off the ledge, with
Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel a brutal trio. The Royals are
the worst team in baseball up the middle, they have maybe five major-league
pitchers and quite possibly just one above-average hitter (Billy Butler).
There's supposed to be help coming in a few years, although the Royals are developing
a disturbing tendency to not develop their high draft picks. Beautiful
ballpark, though.
#29. Houston Astros (64-98, sixth in NL Central, 637 RS, 802 RA). The Astros
would be thin at full health; missing Lance Berkman for any amount of time
would push a bad offense over the edge. Even with Berkman, the infield is a
mess, with Fat Elvis the only above-average hitter. Like last year, the
rotation is Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez and a huge drop-off, in this case to
Brett Myers, and the bullpen is heavy on a 30-year-old coming off a 5.89 ERA
and the guy who signed the most laughed-at contract of the winter. It's time to
shop Berkman and Oswalt, in addition to Carlos Lee, because the Astros
desperately need to restock a bad system.
#28. Pitsburgh Pirates (65-97, fifth in NL Central, 662 RS, 814 RA). Even
though they're projected at just one game ahead of the Astros, the Pirates
should get much more from their 2010 season than will the team in Houston. They're evaluating a whole host of players for roles in 2011 and beyond, they
don't have the veteran dead weight of the Astros, and they can even trade lefty
starters Paul Maholm and Zach Duke during the year. With that said there's just
one very good player here, and that's Andrew McCutchen. The bullpen might end
up being the worst in the game. Neal Huntington can and should still be very
active in moving his low-upside players - Zach Duke, Paul Maholm - for future
pieces.
#27. Washington Nationals (67-95, fifth in NL East, 697 RS, 840 RA). A team
that's going to suck this much shouldn't have as many veterans in its lineup.
The Nationals are wasting all kinds of playing time on Ivan Rodriguez and Adam
Kennedy and Cristian Guzman and Willie Harris, none of whom are good enough to
make any difference in their season. Finding any 25-year-old player with
potential would be a better idea than running that kind of lineup out there,
and that goes for Adam Dunn as well. (This is why no one believed that the
release of Elijah Dukes was baseball-related. Yes, he was disappointing, but he
was let go so that Harris and Willy Taveras might play, and that's just
senseless.) Look for the Nats to be more interesting in the second half when
three highly-regarded prospects and Chien-Ming Wang make up a third of the
staff.
#26. San Diego Padres (72-90, fifth in NL West, 651 RS, 752 RA). All that
matters is that the Padres get good returns for Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell and
Chris Young. Trading Gonzalez will have the very positive effect of getting
Kyle Blanks out of left field; you might be able to get away with that in
Fenway or Wrigley, but not where it's 404 to the gap. The Padres' outfield
defense hasn't been good enough for their park since PETCO opened, and they
eventually need to find three flyers and just let them run. Those players
aren't currently in the system. As with the Nats, there's a lot of veteran dead
weight here, with the Hairstons and David Eckstein and Tony Gwynn Jr. On the
other hand, they seem to have mastered the "find live arms and have an
effective pen thanks to the park" approach. The interesting player here is
Everth Cabrera, who looked legit for about eight weeks last year, but only
eight weeks. Is he a blown-up pinch-runner or a real shortstop?
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