Dontrelle Willis

Willis is a great human interest story (nice guy, great hitting-pitcher, good comeback meme), but he's not a fantasy asset. While he had an occasional nice start for the Reds, he got hit pretty hard down the stretch and still walks too many batters to be a useful starter. Lefties hit just .200/.274/.288 against him, so he might have a future as a lefty specialist.

The 2009 campaign was another disaster for Willis. He spent the majority of the season in the minors recovering from an anxiety disorder that was discovered prior to the start of the season. His stint in the minors did little good as he struggled and went 1-4 with a 7.49 ERA and a 17:28 K:BB ratio in seven games with the Tigers. The Tigers still owe Willis $12 million for the 2010 season before he comes off the books, so there's a chance he'll see another opportunity with the club this season, but fantasy owners will want to stay far away.

The Tigers made the foolish mistake of signing Willis to a three-year contract before he ever pitched in a game for them. Willis was coming off of a poor season in Florida and there was little reason to believe a move to Detroit would do anything to help him return to his earlier form. Willis struggled so badly that the Tigers sent him all the way back to Single-A and had him rework his trademark delivery with the hope of improving his poor command. Willis returned to the majors in September and the results indicated that the work in the minors didn't do a lot of good. The Tigers are now trying to find ways to unload Willis on another team but they are unlikely to find a match. Instead, the team will have to hope Willis can recapture his former magic. Fantasy owners are best off keeping away from Willis until he is able to show some consistency.

The slide in his numbers that started in 2006 gained momentum in 2007, and he posted career-worst numbers in almost every relevant category you can think of: BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, opponents BA, opponents OPS... Willis' success always seemed based more on deceptiveness than pure stuff, and while his low 90s fastball is a quality pitch he's never developed consistency with his slider or change-up. The change of scene provided by a trade to a league not quite as used to seeing Willis' leg kick, and perhaps more importantly a new pitching coach and organization to re-focus his shaky mechanics, could lead to a turnaround but wait to see some evidence of improvement before you risk having Willis on your roster.

Willis took a step back in 2006, setting new career worsts in walk rate and OAV, but his slight regression got lost amidst the hoopla surrounding all the successful major league debuts the Marlins enjoyed. Heading into his arbitration years, Florida has a tough decision to make with Willis. He is the much-loved face of the franchise, but he's also a pitcher who's had a heavy workload over the last few seasons and who's perceived value on the trade market might be greater than his actual value on the field. Depending on the development of a potential replacement for him in the high minors, don't be surprised if Willis gets dealt at mid-season to a team with deep pockets and prospects to burn.

Willis took a big step toward becoming one of the NL's true aces in 2005, leading the NL in wins and shutouts, and finishing in the top five in ERA, innings and complete games. With Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett now wearing different uniforms, Willis will front the Marlins rotation whether he's ready for it or not. Given the state of the offense his wins should take a tumble, but there's little reason to think the rest of his numbers will suffer. The only big danger is that his Rube Goldberg pitching motion will start flying apart if he presses too hard under the weight of his new status.

The D-Train didn't derail in his sophomore season, but he did regress. At this point, now that major leagues hitters are used to his funky delivery, it's more an obstacle for Willis to overcome in keeping his mechanics consistent than it is an asset -- how he makes the necessary adjustments will determine how successful he is.

Everyone climbed on board the D-Train after his promotion, and why not? He was charismatic, precocious and, most of all, unhittable. The league caught up with him a bit, and his home run rate jumped drastically in the second half, but for a 21-year-old the season was a huge success no matter how you look at it. Once the hype dies down, it'll be up to Willis to add some steak to the sizzle, something he may lack only experience to accomplish.

Willis was a raw 19-year-old when he was included as part of the package the Marlins received for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. But a dominating season that saw him post a sub-2.00 ERA between Low- and High-A (with an awesome 128:24 K:BB ratio in 158 innings) cemented his status as one of the best lefty prospects in the minors. Assuming he hits no roadblocks, he should see Double-A in the second half of 2003, and could be in the majors by 2004.