Justin Turner

39-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Toronto Blue Jays

2024 Stats

AVG

.362

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

While it wasn't by design, the Red Sox and Dodgers switched designated hitters with Turner signing in Boston on a one-year contract, with a player option. The deal called for a bonus every 20 plate appearances between 480 and 560. Turner should have kept going in the negotiation as he finished with a career-high 626 trips to the dish, mostly at designated hitter, but he also played ample first base to qualify at the spot next season, as well as appearing at second and third base. Turner set a new personal best with 96 RBI while falling one short of tying his career mark in runs. Even so, Turner's 114 wRC+ was his lowest since 2013, his last season with the Mets. Turner declined his $13.4 million player option, so his role entering 2024 is unclear. He's avoided the IL for two of the past three seasons, but at 39-years-old, he can't be counted on for another full season. Even so, especially with first base eligibility, Turner can be a mixed league asset, just have a backup corner at the ready. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#242

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'11"

Weight 202

DOB 11/23/1984

Born Long Beach, CA

College Cal State Fullerton

Drafted 7th Rd 2006 CIN

Three hits, three RBI in win

1BToronto Blue Jays

April 14, 2024

Turner went 3-for-4 with a double and three RBI in Sunday's 5-0 victory over Colorado.

ANALYSIS
Turner made his mark early Sunday, notching an RBI single in the first inning. He later added an RBI double in the fourth frame before driving in another run on a base knock in the fifth inning. Turner has now recorded at least one hit in six consecutive games, batting .526 with three doubles, four RBI and three runs scored over those contests.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+12%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+228%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+18%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+10%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.873	323	45	12	51	3	.298	.375	.498
Since 2022vs Right	.781	893	109	25	134	4	.274	.345	.437
2024vs Left	2.318	11	1	1	6	0	.800	.818	1.500
2024vs Right	.707	47	6	0	2	0	.243	.383	.324
2023vs Left	.900	164	25	8	24	1	.285	.372	.528
2023vs Right	.765	462	61	15	72	3	.273	.335	.430
2022vs Left	.734	148	19	3	21	2	.275	.345	.389
2022vs Right	.809	384	42	10	60	1	.279	.352	.457
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+12%

OPS at Home

2024

+28%

OPS at Home

2023

+4%

OPS at Home

2022

+21%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.851	587	81	23	94	3	.301	.361	.490
Since 2022Away	.761	629	73	14	91	4	.260	.345	.416
2024Home	1.197	23	1	0	3	0	.474	.565	.632
2024Away	.936	35	6	1	5	0	.286	.400	.536
2023Home	.816	314	46	12	47	1	.293	.347	.469
2023Away	.783	312	40	11	49	3	.257	.343	.440
2022Home	.864	250	34	11	44	2	.296	.360	.504
2022Away	.716	282	27	2	37	1	.260	.340	.376
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Stat Review

How does Justin Turner compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

1.00

BB Rate

15.5%

K Rate

15.5%

BABIP

.421

ISO

.213

AVG

.362

OBP

.466

SLG

.574

OPS

1.040

wOBA

.447

Exit Velocity

92.4 mph

Hard Hit Rate

48.7%

Barrels/PA

3.4%

Expected BA

.339

Expected SLG

.516

Sprint Speed

Ground Ball %

20.5%

Line Drive %

30.8%

Fly Ball %

48.7%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Blue Jays Depth Chart

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Decision forthcoming?

1BFree Agent

January 29, 2024

Turner is likely to sign with a team this week, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.

ANALYSIS
Morosi lists the Giants, Mets, Blue Jays and Cubs as potential destinations for the free-agent infielder. The Red Sox have also reportedly been keeping tabs on the 39-year-old. Turner slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs and 96 RBI last season with Boston and accrued a career-high 626 plate appearances.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Turner was on his way to avoiding the IL for the second straight season when he was felled by an abdominal strain just after the break. He played sparingly over the final two weeks after fouling a ball off his left shin. Turner continued to produce at an above-average clip in 2022, posting a 123 wRC+, but his .438 slugging percentage was his lowest since 2013. Turner maintained a high 43.4% fly ball rate, but he posted a low 7.7% HR/FB as his fly ball velocity dropped to its lowest level since 2018. Turner's strikeout and walk rates remained stellar, he's just lost some bat speed in his twilight years. Turner's defense is league average according to defensive runs saved, but his range is decreasing. That shouldn't be much of an immediate concern after he signed with the Red Sox, as he should see most of his time at designated hitter with Rafael Devers locked in at third base. Turner is still a mixed-league asset but be ready to pull the plug if his already waning power is slow to show itself.

Turner was able to stay mostly healthy in 2021 and reach his highest plate appearance total since 2016. As a result he was able to provide fantasy managers with useful power and batting average while chipping in a few steals. Everything was in line with previous seasons besides his batting average being dragged down by a 10-year low .292 BABIP. He is slowing down as seen by his lowest time-to-first speed and near-low sprint speed. While he didn't miss much time in 2021, Turner was hitting .304/.391/.512 before knee (July) and groin (August) injuries slowed him down. After returning from the first injury, he hit .237/.314/.408 over the rest of the season. When Turner is healthy, he provides some of the best power and average numbers in the league. The problem is that he's rarely 100% healthy.

His decision to celebrate with his teammates post positive COVID test overshadowed the accomplishment for many, but Turner finally won his championship with Los Angeles. He'd been a big part of the Dodgers' NL dominance before that, anchoring the lineup with six straight seasons with well-above-average batting lines. Turner showed few signs of slowing down in 2020, with his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA all ranking in the top 10% of the league. His strikeout rate was 14.9%, a near match for his 14.6% career mark. Missed time is part of the deal; Turner has appeared in more than 135 games only once in his career, and that was back in 2016. Now 36, Turner should not be expected to play every single day even when he's healthy, as he's focused on the ultimate goal of hoisting the World Series trophy at the end of the year. Turner remains a great hitter, but with no speed and limited counting-stat upside.

Last season was a tale of two halves for Turner. The third baseman did not hit a home run until his 29th game of the season and reached the break with a modest 10 round trippers, though he sat with a solid .294 average and .375 on-base percentage. Turner then turned on the power in the second half, slugging 17 long balls and posting an 11.2 AB/HR -- 10th best in the majors among players with 150 or more plate appearances -- despite missing most of September with ankle and back injuries. Turner has been hampered by various injuries over the past three seasons, but he has proven his hitting prowess when healthy, finishing 12th among qualified players with a .388 wOBA during that three-year span. He turned 35 in November and his injury history is a concern, but Turner's sample size of success is large enough to inspire confidence in another season of solid production at the hot corner in 2020.

Turner has often been nicked up the past two seasons, but the 34-year-old has shown little evidence of decline when he's been on the field. Turner's plate approach remains exceptional, as he's ranked in the top 10 in both BB/K and contact rate among all hitters with at least 400 plate appearances since 2017. Although a wrist issue was the major culprit for his low games total in 2018, Turner's power didn't suffer as a result. He posted a career-best 45% hard-hit rate last season and finished 15th among all qualified hitters in average flyball distance, per Statcast. While the slew of injuries he's endured in recent years could eventually take their toll, Turner at least enters 2019 with his health intact. The usual caveats apply in offsetting a player of his ilk with the appropriate amount of safety, but if Turner can merely re-emerge as the 130-game player he was in 2017, he should contend for a top-10 finish among fantasy third basemen.

Cast off by several clubs earlier in his career (including the Mets, if you hadn't heard), Turner has blossomed into one of the game's premier hitters, posting wRC+ marks over 140 in three of the past four seasons (123 in the other). His .322 batting average ranked fifth among qualified hitters last season, and he broke the 20-homer threshold for a second straight season despite not hitting his first long ball until Apr. 29 and later missing nearly three weeks with a hamstring injury. Turner walked more than he struck out, finishing second behind only Joey Votto in BB/K, while maintaining a top-30 hard-hit rate. He boosted his flyball rate to almost 48 percent (from 40 percent), so the pop seems here to stay along with the stellar average. There is some injury risk at 33 years old -- Turner has averaged 129 games played per season over his last four -- but there is virtually no performance risk.

Turner picked a great time to register his first full season in the majors, playing a career-high 151 games, stepping to the dish 622 times, and blowing away the 439 plate appearances recorded the previous season. Given that 2014's .404 BABIP is an outlier, last season's .293 landed on the low end of Turner's career range, despite a typical line drive rate and hard-hit percentage. One reason for the depressed BABIP was that he hit more flyballs than ever but since that resulted in 27 homers, no one is complaining. Baselining Turner for 2017 is tricky since we don't know if he'll maintain that elevated flyball rate. Then there's the issue of health. While there are countless examples of players losing the injury prone tag, Turner needs to stay on the field for another 150 games before he's absolved. When healthy, solid plate skills render Turner a solid floor; pay for that, not for the 2016 level of production.

Leg and knee issues limited Turner to 385 at-bats in 2015, but when in the lineup, he was again effective for the club, batting a solid .294/.370/.491. His 16 home runs bested his previous career high by nine long balls and his 60 RBI were also a career best. Perhaps it's the way he plays with all-out effort, but despite being a relatively young 31, Turner doesn't appear to be a guy we can count on for 500+ at-bats. He'll likely continue to need a day or two off per week, someone limiting his fantasy value, but after notching back-to-back solid seasons at the plate, Turner looks to be a guy we can rely on for solid production when he's in the lineup. Headed into 2016, the Dodgers appear set to roll with Corey Seager at shortstop, freeing up a likely return to the Opening Day third base job for Turner. Expect though to see the club bring in someone who can spell him from time to time.

Turner has spent time in four different organizations (Reds, Orioles, Mets, and Dodgers) in his career that dates back to 2006. He hit for average in the minor leagues, but had hit .260/.323/.361 in over 926 plate appearances at the major league level heading into 2014, with little hint of upside. Naturally, he hit .340/.404/.493 in 322 plate appearances in 2014. When one sees an 80-point jump in batting average, it's natural to want to look at the BABIP column and there, we find a .404 BABIP for Turner in 2014. Over the past six seasons, even with that .404 number factored in, Turner has a .322 BABIP. To say the utility infielder is due for some regression is an understatement. He is in for a Chris Johnson-like regression in 2015 and that’s unfortunate for his current fantasy owners because he doesn’t do much else at the plate. Roster carefully.

Turner reprised his role as backup infielder in 2013, seeing at least 12 games at all four infield spots in between injury-related absences. His strikeout and contact rates dropped, which doesn't bode for future success as his mild rise in batting average was propelled by an inflated BABIP. Turner's 2011 numbers appear to be the outlier this point, and he will no longer play for the Mets after being non-tendered during the offseason, but he could still get a chance to earn a utility role with another club.

Thanks to improved health at third base with David Wright, Turner saw nearly 300 fewer plate appearances in 2012 while his walk rate (4.9%) dipped back closer to his more recent minor league results. Although his .392 slugging percentage was an improvement, 2011 is probably as good as it gets now that he is 28 years old and is not even guaranteed steady at-bats even if one of the Mets' regular infielders lands on the disabled list. You can probably do worse than Turner when looking at $1 options in the endgame of NL-only leagues, but others will gamble and do much better because of his limited ceiling.

Turner started 2011 at Triple-A Buffalo, but was up by the third week of the year and saw action in a surprising 117 games. He replaced David Wright at third while Wright was out, earning National League Rookie of the Month honors in May, before seeing most of his action at second. Turner struggled for a large portion of the last four months of the season, but excelled with runners in scoring position. Daniel Murphy should open the year as the starting second baseman, however, pushing Turner back into a utility role.

Turner opened 2010 as an Oriole, but was waived and claimed by the Mets in May. He turned out to be one of Triple-A Buffalo's best players with a .333 average, a .906 OPS, 11 home runs and 58 runs in 84 games. Turner will be in the mix for the second base job in spring training, but is likely to start the year back in the minors.

Turner does most things well, but no single tool stands out. He pushed his way to a September callup and he could win a utility infielder role out of camp. If there is an injury in the middle infield he could be primed for some playing time, but he doesn't warrant much fantasy praise.

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