Kirk Rueter

Rueter was on the wrong side of his personal edge last year, walking too many guys and watching the balls that were caught in 2002 fall for hits in 2003. He's as dependent on his defense as any pitcher in the last 25 years, so predicting what his numbers will be is hard. Pac Bell Park and the Giants offense get him 12 wins as long as he can walk to the mound.

Probably no other NL starter got you 14 wins and a 3.23 ERA as cheaply as Reuter did for you last year. Those numbers, plus a general increase in name recognition as a result of last year's postseason, may lead to relatively high early bidding for Rueter. Don't bite. Rueter has never been a strikeout pitcher – his peak was 5.4 K's per 9 IP in 1997 at the age of 26 (way below average), and since then, the trend has only gotten worse, averaging less than 4.0 K's per 9 IP in each of the last three years. Analysis from Bill James and others has shown us that pitchers with consistently low strikeout totals throughout their career tend to drop off the cliff in terms of effectiveness by their early thirties – and Rueter turns 33 in the offseason. Rueter could be one of the rare exceptions, but you shouldn't spend a mid-round draft pick banking on it. Draft him low if he's still available if you take him at all. We may have just seen his best season.