Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo has been slow to recover from June 2014 Tommy John surgery, ultimately sitting out all of 2015. Arroyo came to the Dodgers from the Braves as part of the Hector Olivera deal, functioning as nothing more than a salary dump. Arroyo won't strike out many guys, but when healthy, the 38-year-old has proven to be a reliable back-of-the-rotation option for teams. His fastball tops out in the mid-80s, but Arroyo has shown enough deception to have a long and successful career. Prior to 2014, he'd logged nine consecutive seasons with 32 or more starts, but coming off an injury and entering his twilight years, Arroyo's durability can no longer be relied upon. The Dodgers were quick to decline his $11 million option this winter, making him a free agent. He'll likely be in some team's camp on a minor league deal this spring unless he fails to find a suitable arrangement and elects retirement.

The one certainty you could rely on Arroyo for was a boatload of innings. They might not be good innings, but there will be a lot of them because this guy just doesn't get injured. Last season, Arroyo was injured. The Great Tommy John Wave of 2014 ate up another unsuspecting victim when it absorbed Arroyo in mid-June. After an incredibly rough start (9.50 ERA in first four starts), he got hot with a 2.65 ERA in his last 10 outings before succumbing to injury. Now the Diamondbacks won't expect to get him back until mid-summer. At his best, he's a touch better than average in ERA as a workhorse innings-eater, yet there is no reason to expect him to be at his best immediately upon returning from surgery. As a result, it's best to look elsewhere for endgame arms to stash.

The 2013 season brought more of the same for Arroyo – virtually identical ERA, strikeout, walk and even strand rates - and yet he once again performed better than his component stats might suggest, despite an uptick in his home-run rate. Tony Cingrani's development allowed the Reds to let Arroyo walk in the offseason, but just because he won't be plying his wares in Great American Ballpark doesn't mean you should expect better results in 2014 - last year Arroyo actually had 3.45 ERA at home and 4.31 ERA on the road. At any rate, when you invest in Arroyo, typically you'll get a durable, pitch-to-contact starter that brings the risk of the occasional blow-up start and plenty of homers allowed. An extreme home-run-depressing ballpark would be your best hope.

The pendulum swung back in Arroyo's favor in 2012, as he lowered his ERA by over a run, cut his home run rate from 2.1 HR/9 to 1.2, and shaved his already-low walk rate by half a walk per nine innings. Despite the improvement, the payoff was modest -- 12 wins and 129 strikeouts in 202 innings. This was as good as it gets and it is likely to be worse in 2013.

When we suggested that the Reds would eventually regret Arroyo's three-year, $35 million contract extension, we didn't expect the regret to set in so immediately and with such ferocity. Arroyo gave up a whopping 46 homers en route to posting a 5.07 ERA over 199 innings. What's frightening was that the season could have been worse - Arroyo's BABIP normalized from the .245 he allowed in 2010, but only up to .285, though when those hard-hit balls are always going over the fence, it's hard to raise the BABIP too high. Arroyo's fastball, never that fast to begin with, lost another mph last season, and he also dealt with a bout of mono in the spring. He may improve over his 2011 numbers, but only to the point of being a league average starter.

Arroyo was the Reds' steadiest starter last year, which earned him a three-year, $35 million contract extension this winter. While the market for useable starting pitchers was pretty robust this offseason, there's a good chance that the Reds will regret this contract as much as they did Aaron Harang's. For the second year in a row, Arroyo averaged just over 5.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and he gave up 29 homers. On the flip side, he walked just 2.46 batters per nine and held opposing hitters to a .246 BABIP against. The former stat seems repeatable, the latter does not. Expect some regression in 2011 and more beyond that.

Arroyo's season-ending 3.84 ERA and 15 wins make it look as if he were a valuable fantasy commodity all year, but that's not the case. He got pounded regularly early on, posting a 5.38 ERA at the All-Star break. A steady diet of Pirates and Astros in September helped him close with a 2.24 post-All-Star ERA. Arroyo's strikeout rate dropped to a dangerously low 5.19 K/9IP in 2009, which might have been a function of his continuing case of carpal tunnel syndrome in his right wrist. He opted not to have surgery on that malady over the offseason.

Because this is baseball and not Olympic figure skating, we can't throw out Arroyo's worst result when evaluating his season. That said, take out a one-inning, 10-run shellacking at the hands of the Blue Jays and his 4.77 ERA become 4.34. Statistically, there were some positives from Arroyo's season - he pitched much better over the second half, and his strikeout rate went up. But be wary of investing too much in his improvement - Arroyo increasingly is relying upon fooling opposing hitters instead of beating them with his stuff. That dependency on tricking opposing hitters is reflected by his higher walk and homer rates - when opponents aren't fooled, bad things happen.

As lucky as Arroyo was in 2006, he was equally unfortunate in 2007. His strikeout and walk rates remained fairly close to his 2006 rates, but his BABIP jumped nearly 40 points and his strand rate dropped from .776 to .734. The latter stat reflects how poorly the Reds bullpen supported him and the other starters, and explains why ex-manager Jerry Narron left him in to throw 129 pitches in a May 16 start against the Padres. After that start, Arroyo had a 2.64 ERA, but then got torched in five of his next six starts, blasting his ERA all the way up to 5.24. The Reds then gave him a couple of extra days of rest and adjusted his nutritional intake, which seemed to work. We'll see how hard new manager Dusty Baker works Arroyo, but we expect some improvement this year.

Arroyo best reflects the concept that the National League is significantly easier to pitch in than the American League, and he said as much on many occasions. Not only was Arroyo effective for the Reds, but he was durable, leading the majors in innings pitched. Look for some retrenchment this year. Not only was the workload 40 innings higher than he's ever pitched, but his batting average allowed on balls in play was only .262, indicating he caught a few breaks. This inference gains even more relevance when you consider that the Reds' defensive range behind him was fairly suspect.

Arroyo's won 24 games in the past two years and may finally have a secure spot in the starting rotation after being used in long relief at times in 2004 and 2005. The Red Sox have seven potential starters, but an expected deal of David Wells and rumors that the team is shopping Matt Clement portend a full-time starting role for Arroyo. Arroyo himself has been the subject of rumors as well.

Arroyo proved to be a very versatile pitcher in 2004, capable of quality relief work as well as a back-of-the-rotation guy. The back end of the Red Sox rotation is in flux with Tim Wakefield, Wade Miller and Arroyo vying for the final spots, but Arroyo will likely find a way to start 20 or more games again.

Arroyo pitched solidly as a starter for Triple-A Pawtucket before getting a late season promotion to Boston. He pitched well in several relief appearances for the Red Sox and was on their roster for the ALCS. He will be given an opportunity to win a spot at the back end of the rotation. He had little success starting for Pittsburgh, but he's still relatively young and could have learned a thing or two about pitching since then. With the Boston offense, Arroyo would have value if he wins the fifth starter job.

Decision time for the Pirates, who are out of options on Arroyo and need to commit to him or risk losing him on waivers. He’s been very good at Triple-A but poor in three rotation stints in Pittsburgh. He’d be a better use of innings than Brian Meadows or Salomon Torres and is a decent late-round gamble who could pick up ten wins with league-average peripherals.