34-Year-Old Second Baseman – Cincinnati Reds
2016 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Phillips arrested a steady decline in his numbers by putting together a solid 2015 campaign, hitting .294 with 12 homers, 70 RBI and a surprising 23 stolen bases. The stolen bases in particular stand ...
Brandon Phillips Contract Information:
Agreed to a six-year, $72.5 million guaranteed contract with the Reds in April of 2012.
The Reds are unlikely to try to trade Phillips again after he turned down two trades this offseason, one with the Nationals and one with the Diamondbacks, the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
To instantly reveal our fantasy analysis of every player – including Brandon Phillips – simply subscribe now.
|2016 RotoWire Projections||Subscribe now to see our 2016 projections for Brandon Phillips|
|Career (View All)||1608||6,776||6,233||846||1,704||520||301||33||186||825||184||68||377||944||35||55||76||.273||.320||.422||.742|
|Sep. 29||ChC||Did not play.|
|Sep. 28||@Was||Did not play.|
|Last 7 Days||19||2||8||2||0||0||2||1||3||2||0||0||1||0||.421||.429||.526||.955|
|Last 14 Days||48||3||16||3||0||0||5||1||7||2||0||0||2||0||.333||.333||.396||.729|
|Last 30 Days||110||11||35||6||0||2||18||4||16||3||1||1||2||0||.318||.342||.427||.769|
Brandon Phillips: MLB Games Played By Position
Brandon Phillips Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||PA||AB||Walk Rate||Strikeout Rate||BB/K Ratio||Contact Rate||BABIP||Isolated Power|
|2016 RotoWire Projections||Subscribe now to see our 2016 projections for Brandon Phillips|
2015 Stat Review for Brandon Phillips As compared to the top 200 hitters in 2015 (min 420 PA)
Good contact skills often lead to better fantasy stats.
SLG and ISO are useful indicators of power.
Patience at the plate often leads to positive outcomes.
A couple of useful stats for evaluating a hitter.
2016 Projected Stats Breakdown for Brandon Phillips
2016 projections compared to top 200 hitters in 2015 (min 425 PA)
2016 projections compared to top 40 second basemen in 2015 (min 350 PA)
Cincinnati Reds Roster
MajorsBailey, Homer (P)
AAABalester, Collin (P)
A+Buckley, Sean (3B)
AArmstrong, Mark (P)
RookieAquino, Aristides (OF)
Brandon Phillips: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
The trends for Phillips are pretty ugly -- his OPS has dropped three consecutive years, dipping down to .678 last year after peaking at .810 in 2011; he stole a career-low two bases after formerly being a double-digit steal threat; and he hit only eight homers after four consecutive 18-homer seasons. A thumb injury that put him on the DL in July can only explain some of his low output, the rest can be attributed to normal decline. The good news for Phillips might not be such good news for the Reds -- he has three more years remaining on his contract, which virtually ensures that he's not going anywhere and can benefit from playing half his games at Great American Ballpark.
With the caveat that players don't improve nor decline in linear fashion, Phillips has entered the decline phase of his career. He's hitting for less power, making slightly less contact and running less frequently. And he's only got four more years left on his contract, a contract he's somehow unhappy with! What a bargain! Don't let the 103 RBI fool you - those were largely the byproduct of batting behind not one but two .400+ OBP guys, a circumstance that's unlikely to repeat in his career. We hate to bash Phillips - he's perennially been a top-10 second baseman - but don't let his reputation, his RBI count or positional scarcity persuade you to take him among the top-75 players in the draft.
For the most part, Phillips' numbers remain as steady as ever. Though his RBI and runs may fluctuate pending where in the lineup he'll hit, his power and batting average output are pretty steady. There are three small negatives - he's walking less (just 4.5% in 2012), running less frequently, albeit more successfully last year, and he's got a big home/road split (.830 home OPS, .673 road OPS). The latter factor isn't that big of a concern - he's not leaving anytime soon after signing a six-year contract extension in April. Barring injury, he'll likely remain among the top-10 fantasy second basemen for the next couple of seasons until he hits his mid-30's.
There's been little variance in Phillips' overall numbers from year-to-year with the Reds, though he's found different ways to get there in individual seasons. One note of caution from a fantasy standpoint - he's running less frequently and with worse results the last two seasons - a sharp drop in stolen bases could occur in the next year or two. At publication time, the Reds were close to working out a long-term contract extension that would keep him in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, the better to preserve his power and batting average.
Phillips is probably miscast as a leadoff hitter, given his lack of patience at the plate, but due to the utter lack of alternatives on the Reds' roster, that's where he was for much of the season. The result was that he scored 100 runs for the first time since 2007 hitting in front of Joey Votto, while driving in only 59. At the end of the day, he's better off lower in the lineup, but unless Drew Stubbs takes the leap in 2011, Phillips will probably spend another year toward the top. His overall numbers were hurt by a wrist injury that he tried to play through in September, a problem that shouldn't be present going forward.
Phillips is miscast as a middle-of-the-lineup hitter. While he has a modicum of power and drove in 98 runs last year, the latter is more of a function of his spot in the order, behind Joey Votto, than it is reflective of his abilities. He walked a career-high 44 times last year, but that was still a below-average walk rate, good for just a .329 OBP. He's more valuable in fantasy than in real life because of his speed, though his defense makes him a plus-player at second base.
Phillips regressed a little in 2008, in no small part due to a lack of patience at the plate. Some of that dropoff also occurred after the Reds traded away first Ken Griffey Jr. and then Adam Dunn - many within the Reds' organization believe that he pressed after those deals, trying to shoulder the load. Still, in fantasy terms, we're talking about a second baseman that had 21 homers and 23 steals in an injury-shortened season. Phillips broke his index finger early in September, so watch for updates on his progress in spring training.
Indians GM Mark Shapiro has done a lot of smart things, but giving up on Brandon Phillips wasn't one of them. In fairness, nobody foresaw the heights to which Phillips would rise in 2007, where he joined Alfonso Soriano as the only second basemen to have a 30-30 season. While we'd like to see him strike out less and walk more, Phillips has moved into the fantasy elite, behind only Chase Utley at second base.
There was a lot of blame to go around for the Reds' offensive collapse over the second half, but lost among them was Phillips' descent back to earth after the break, when he hit .243/.287/.416. Overall the team now has a significant OBP problem that Phillips doesn't help. Still, his defense is so good that there's no real argument for replacing him, especially if he hits for just a little bit of power. His overall numbers for the season probably represent his upside—he's not going to get much better than this.
The loser of the 2004 battle with Jhonny Peralta to decide who was going to take over for Omar Vizquel, Phillips is a former top prospect who has fallen on tough times and has nowhere to go in Cleveland. There are still some believers in his ability, which could help the Indians get some value out of him, but Phillips will have to perform on the field before most other teams will offer enough value to pry him away from what has become a bad situation.
Phillips, once one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, failed miserably at the plate in his chance with the big league club in 2003 and has since spent most of his time in Triple-A Buffalo. Compared to Barry Larkin, the shortstop/second baseman has a lot of confidence and is still hoping for a shot at the starting job come this spring after putting together some decent numbers at Buffalo. The Indians have tried to convert him into a second baseman since they have Jhonny Peralta in the minors and previously had Omar Vizquel locked in at the position.
Phillips was handed the starting second base job to start the season, but struggled mightily in his rookie season. To make a bad situation, Phillips reportedly whined and pouted after first being benched then demoted, and it showed in his play at Triple-A Buffalo. Don't write Phillips off just yet - plenty of rookies have gone in over their head and flopped, only to come back with a renewed commitment and purpose. He'll be on a much shorter leash in 2004, however, and a starting job isn't guaranteed, so bid cautiously.
Acquired from Montreal as part of the Bartolo Colon deal, Phillips is expected to take over the reigns at second base. Phillips may be a little overrated, because he is a free swinger (34 BB in 534 AB) who will strike out a lot (84 K). There is no denying his speed, defense or power, but may be a bottom of the order hitter that needs to learn how to manage an at-bat. 20-20 is not out of the question, but we'd like to see the increased patience that would allow him to be a potential superstar.