Francisco Liriano

2013

Subscribe now to see our 2013 outlook.

2012

Liriano emerged as Minnesota's ace in 2010 as he seemed finally back to top form after Tommy John surgery. However, he took a major step backward last year and is an enigma for 2012. Liriano came down with a sore shoulder in spring training and never seemed right even though he threw a no-hitter in May (although it included six walks). He landed on the DL twice with a sore shoulder and made just nine starts after the All-Star break. His average fastball velocity slipped by two mph, his strikeout rate declined to 7.50 K/9IP (from 9.44) and his walk rate nearly doubled (to a staggering 5.02 BB/9IP). If there's some hope for a turnaround, Liriano seemed to struggle mentally with Minnesota's poor defense as he fell apart when runners reached base (.822 OPS with runners on) - and it's hard to see Minnesota's defense being worse. His shoulder problems also didn't appear to have any structural cause. When healthy, Liriano's slider is one of the toughest pitches in the game. He's just a year removed from a season with an excellent strikeout rate, good control and an ability to keep the ball on the ground. He's a bounce back candidate as a result.

2011

Last season, Liriano was finally back to the dominant form he had before his 2006 Tommy John surgery and he enters 2011 as the ace of the Minnesota staff. Liriano was an enigma in 2009 as he was in his second season back from surgery but struggled with a 5.80 ERA and mediocre control. He pitched in winter ball and finally said his arm felt strong and the change was marked once the regular season began. Liriano saw a strong bounceback in his velocity to an average of a 93.7 mph from 91.7 in 2009 - which almost approached his pre-surgery form (94.7 mph in 2006). His fastball went from one of the most hittable in the league in 2009 to league average in 2010. That allowed his slider to become a devastating pitch again, as it was among the top off-speed pitches in fewest average runs allowed. He also saw a dramatic increase in his groundball rate to 53.6 percent from 40.2 percent in 2009 along with fewer walks and home runs. One of the few concerns was that he only allowed 6.5 percent of home runs on flyballs, which may be unsustainable. With an excellent strikeout rate (9.4 K/9IP), good control and an ability to keep the ball on the ground, Liriano looks like one of the best starters in the AL now that the physical and mental trials of Tommy John surgery are behind him.

2010

Liriano may have been the biggest disappointment in fantasy baseball last season and his role with the Twins in 2010 is uncertain. It looked like Liriano was back to his pre-Tommy John surgery form entering 2009 as he went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 60:19 K:BB ratio in 65.2 innings at the end of the 2008 season. However, he struggled to begin last season (6.60 ERA on June 1), went on the DL with a sore forearm in July and was demoted to the bullpen in the second half. He was an enigma since he was healthy and at times resembled his top 2008 form (with a strong 8.03 K/9IP strikeout rate), but he fell apart with runners on base (.945 OPS allowed). It was also thought that after Tommy John surgery, he wouldn't be able to use his slider as his out pitch as often. However, it was his fastball that was the problem (allowing the third most runs in baseball on heaters) while his slider remained an above average pitch. He may be a buy-low candidate, but we'll need to see improved control (122:65 K:BB ratio) before we get too excited. He may begin the season in middle relief as he tries to work his way back to the player they used to call “The Franchise.”

2009

By the end of 2008, Liriano looked like the pitcher who had the baseball world abuzz before his 2006 rookie season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. However, it was a roller coaster ride to get back to his prior form. After sitting out the 2007 season, Liriano got a few tune-up starts in the minors before being called up to the majors in April and struggled, giving up 13 walks and 13 runs in 10.1 innings. He continued to scuffle in the minors in May as his control was slow to come along after surgery. Once the weather heated up, Liriano turned things around and went 9-0 at Triple-A Rochester with a 2.51 ERA and 73:9 K:BB ratio in 64.2 innings after June 10. Called up to the Twins in August, Liriano looked like his old self by going 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 60:19 K:BB ratio in 65.2 innings. Liriano featured a high-90s fastball and devastating slider before his surgery that saw him amass high strikeout totals with good control. However, his velocity was down to the low 90s after surgery and he decreased the use of his slider, which was seen as the primary culprit of his elbow woes. That he still had strong strikeout rates and control numbers late in the season bode well that his new mix of pitches can have similar results to his pre-surgery form. And with pitchers often gaining velocity back in their second season after Tommy John surgery, Liriano could see an improvement in 2009. He'll be a hot commodity as a result at the top of Minnesota's rotation.

2008

Liriano missed all of 2007 after Tommy John surgery, but threw full-speed bullpen sessions in November -- including sliders -- and is on track to return for the start of spring training. It's thought he'll be ready for the start of the regular season, but his health will be a big question mark this spring. When last healthy in 2006, Liriano may have been the best pitcher in baseball. With a high-90's fastball and devastating slider, he struck out 144 batters in 121 innings with just 32 walks. How quickly he'll be able to recapture that form is one of the bigger fantasy questions for 2008. It's possible he may start the season in the minors as he works his way back, and often pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery are better in their second season. Still, even if Liriano is a fraction of what he was in 2006, he could make a significant impact this year.

2007

Liriano may have been the best pitcher in baseball last year but will miss the entire 2007 season after Tommy John surgery. After opening the season in the bullpen, he moved into the rotation in May and went 11-3 with a 1.92 ERA as a starter. With a fastball that can hit the high 90s on the radar gun and a devastating slider, Liriano struck out 144 batters in 121 innings with just 32 walks. He strained his ulnar collateral ligament in August, and after trying to rehab the injury, had a setback in his first start back in September. A few months later he went under the knife. While there's no guarantee Liriano will be the same pitcher when he returns in 2008, his upside is so high he's worth holding onto.

2006

Liriano is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball after a season that saw him dominate hitters at three levels. He struck out over 11 batters per nine innings between two minor league levels with a 239/69 K/BB ratio. With a fastball that can hit the high 90s on the radar gun, Liriano will contend for a spot in the Minnesota rotation this spring. Even if he struggles initially in the majors (which he showed no signs of last year by posting a 33/7 K/BB ratio in six games with the Twins), he should post strong strikeout totals.

2005

After coming back from 2003 shoulder problems, Liriano is a rising star in the Twins minor league system. Acquired in the A.J. Pierzynski trade, Liriano posted a strong K/BB ratio at High Single-A (125/43) before looking strong in seven starts for Double-A New Britain. He has a fastball that can hit the high 90s on the radar gun. If he can prove his durability, a good year at Double-A could have him in the mix for a major league job as early as 2006.

2003

This lefty went 3-6, 3.49 in 16 starts in his pro debut at low Single-A in 2002. 85 K's in just 80 innings, with 31 walks and just six taters; turned 19 in October. Liriano will go to either high Single-A or Double-A in 2003. Won't see any time in the bigs, but an intriguing keeper league option.