26-Year-Old Outfielder – Cincinnati Reds
2016 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Hamilton improved on the basepaths but regressed at the plate in 2015, and it's that latter quality that has us worried about his long-term prospects. But first, the good news: he was 57-for-65 in sto...
Billy Hamilton Contract Information:
Signed with the Reds in June of 2009.
It now "sounds unlikely" that Hamilton (left oblique) will be able to return this season, Zach Buchanan from the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
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|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2016 projections for Billy Hamilton||3-Year Averages||93||360||331||45||80||17||11||3||3||25||42||10||21||65||6||2||0||.242||.285||.320||.606|
|Career (View All)||398||1,547||1,405||206||348||81||54||14||13||94||184||40||100||289||30||9||3||.248||.297||.334||.631|
|Oct. 2||ChC||Did not play.|
|Oct. 1||ChC||Did not play.|
|Sep. 30||ChC||Did not play.|
|Sep. 29||@StL||Did not play.|
|Sep. 28||@StL||Did not play.|
|Sep. 27||@StL||Did not play.|
|Sep. 26||@StL||Did not play.|
|Sep. 25||@Mil||Did not play.|
|Sep. 24||@Mil||Did not play.|
|Sep. 23||@Mil||Did not play.|
|Sep. 21||@ChC||Did not play.|
|Sep. 20||@ChC||Did not play.|
|Sep. 19||@ChC||Did not play.|
|Sep. 18||Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 17||Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 17||Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 16||Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 14||Mil||Did not play.|
|Sep. 13||Mil||Did not play.|
|Sep. 12||Mil||Did not play.|
|Sep. 11||@Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 10||@Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 9||@Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 8||@Pit||Did not play.|
|Sep. 7||NYM||Did not play.|
|Sep. 6||NYM||Did not play.|
|Sep. 5||NYM||Did not play.|
|Last 7 Games||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||.000||.000||.000||.000|
|Last 14 Games||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||.000||.000||.000||.000|
|Last 30 Games||9||3||4||0||0||0||0||2||3||4||0||0||0||0||.444||.545||.444||.989|
Billy Hamilton: MLB Games Played By Position
Billy Hamilton Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||PA||AB||Walk Rate||Strikeout Rate||BB/K Ratio||Contact Rate||BABIP||Isolated Power|
|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2016 projections for Billy Hamilton||3-Year Averages||360||331||5.8%||18.1%||0.32||80%||.293||.078|
2016 Stat Review for Billy Hamilton As compared to the top 200 hitters in 2015 (min 420 PA)
Good contact skills often lead to better fantasy stats.
SLG and ISO are useful indicators of power.
Patience at the plate often leads to positive outcomes.
A couple of useful stats for evaluating a hitter.
Cincinnati Reds Roster
MajorsAdleman, Tim (P)
AAAAllen, Brandon (1B)
A+Aquino, Aristides (OF)
RookieFranklin, Kevin (3B)
Billy Hamilton: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
If the season ended on August 31, Hamilton's rookie season would have been a rousing success. He hit for more power than expected and was hitting .267/.302/.382 with 54 stolen bases. But he collapsed in September, hitting just .123 with 19 strikeouts in 65 at-bats and had just two more stolen bases before missing the final four games with a concussion. He fell short of his projected stolen base total in part because of that September slump, but also because he was caught a whopping 23 times on the season (seven of those coming on pickoffs). As he plays more at the major league level, his success rate should improve as he learns how to read opposing pitchers better, but he also has to get on base more frequently, having walked a mere 34 times in 611 plate appearances in 2014. While we don't ever expect him to be Tim Raines, we do suspect there will be some improvement in 2015, both in his ability to get on base and being able to run more without getting caught.
True speed demons like Hamilton have among the biggest fantasy swing potentials among all players. Is he going to be like Vince Coleman and dominate a category, or is he going to be more like Dee Gordon and lose playing time and struggle to keep a major league job? Much of Hamilton's value rests in the format of your league. If you play in the NFBC or any other no-trade league, Hamilton is especially tricky to value. A full season of him in the lineup gets you half of the way there in the stolen-base category, if not more. But if you draft him, chances are you are avoiding other elite stolen base guys, as a surplus in the category gets you nowhere, plus you have to draft power-heavy hitters to make up for Hamilton's shortfall there. If Hamilton scuffles and subsequently gets demoted, your team goes from likely winning the category to falling to the back of the pack. Hamilton struck out nearly 20 percent of the time at Triple-A without being a power threat (.343 slugging percentage) - there's a good chance that strikeout rate hits 25 percent or higher at the major league level, which will make it difficult for him to hit for a decent batting average. Be very cautious with Hamilton - the burn potential is high.
After Hamilton set the minor league single-season record for stolen bases in 2012, the Reds resisted the urge to call him up for the September stretch run, instead preserving their ability to keep him off the 40-man roster for another offseason. And in fairness, Hamilton probably isn't ready to face major league pitching, nor was there a place for him to play. Those things might change by midseason 2013, especially if the Reds don't reach outside the organization to find a leadoff hitter. Hamilton did more than steal bases last year - he also learned to master the strike zone, improving his walk rate as he climbed the organizational ladder. He still has no palpable power, so that ability to get on-base will need to translate at Triple-A and then the majors to allow him to cash in on his world-class speed. He played center field in the Arizona Fall League, so that could be his ultimate position once he hits the majors, especially if the Reds are locked in on Zack Cozart at shortstop.
Two numbers stand out when looking at Hamilton's 2011 stats: 103 and 39. That's 103 stolen bases (in 123 attempts) and 39 errors. Hamilton stayed at shortstop all season after playing much of 2010 at second base, so growing pains had to be expected. But while Hamilton has great range, he hasn't received good marks for his arm or his hands, so he might not stick at shortstop. He's a very raw prospect, so even with an organizational problem at shortstop, Hamilton is not a candidate for a quick promotion. However, it's worth noting that he really came on strong at Low-A Dayton after hitting .195 through May - he just needs plenty of time at each level to develop.
Hamilton was drafted out of a Mississippi high school in the second round of the 2009 draft and started to hit his stride last year in the Pioneer League, where he hit .318/.383/.456 with a whopping 48 stolen bases in 69 games. So far he hasn't hit for power, and this production came at a pretty low level, but Hamilton's raw tools should put him on your long-term radar.