Mitch Keller
27-Year-Old
2023 Stats
W-L
13-9
ERA
4.21
WHIP
1.25
K
210
SV
0
2024 Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Keller earned his first career All-Star nod in 2023 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts during the first half, but he fell apart after the break with a 5.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 13 outings. The good news is that the right-hander stayed mostly healthy and set a career high with 194.1 innings, and he also improved his strikeout rate to 25.5 percent and walk rate to 6.7 percent. Keller also may have received some unfortunate results, as indicated by a 3.83 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP compared to a 4.21 ERA. Despite the struggles down the stretch in 2023, it's a season to build on as he enters his age-28 campaign. Keller certainly shouldn't be the ace of a staff but is a strong option to round out a rotation for fantasy managers in 2024, especially if he can maintain the decent strikeout and win (13) totals. Read Past Outlooks
Not worried about decreased velo
Keller sat between 90-92 mph for much of his spring training outing Wednesday against the Orioles, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The decreased velocity is a red flag not only for his potential level of performance but also as a potential indication of injury. However, he completed four innings -- his longest outing of the spring -- and told reporters after the game that he wasn't worried and that his velocity would ramp back up as the intensity of games increased. Though his results were inconsistent, Keller is coming off a breakout season during which he struck out 210 batters across 194.1 innings, and he'll take the mound on Opening Day against the Marlins.
The decreased velocity is a red flag not only for his potential level of performance but also as a potential indication of injury. However, he completed four innings -- his longest outing of the spring -- and told reporters after the game that he wasn't worried and that his velocity would ramp back up as the intensity of games increased. Though his results were inconsistent, Keller is coming off a breakout season during which he struck out 210 batters across 194.1 innings, and he'll take the mound on Opening Day against the Marlins.
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2023 MLB Game Log
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
95
Last 10 Games
94
Last 5 Games
94
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2023
-4%
BAA vs RHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021vs Left | .281 | 203 | 98 | 246 | 23 | |||
Since 2021vs Right | .262 | 237 | 66 | 234 | 26 | |||
2023vs Left | .253 | 115 | 37 | 98 | 16 | |||
2023vs Right | .244 | 95 | 18 | 89 | 9 | |||
2022vs Left | .276 | 55 | 34 | 80 | 5 | |||
2022vs Right | .257 | 83 | 26 | 82 | 9 | |||
2021vs Left | .345 | 33 | 27 | 68 | 2 | |||
2021vs Right | .300 | 59 | 22 | 63 | 8 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-3%
ERA at Home
2023
-46%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021Home | 4.47 | 1.42 | 237.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | ||||
Since 2021Away | 4.61 | 1.41 | 216.2 | 9.6 | 3.1 | ||||
2023Home | 2.90 | 1.06 | 90.0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | ||||
2023Away | 5.35 | 1.41 | 104.1 | 10.9 | 2.8 | ||||
2022Home | 3.72 | 1.40 | 87.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | ||||
2022Away | 4.13 | 1.39 | 72.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | ||||
2021Home | 7.91 | 2.01 | 60.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | ||||
2021Away | 3.57 | 1.46 | 40.1 | 8.9 | 3.6 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.82K/9
9.7BB/9
2.5HR/9
1.2Fastball
94.6 mphERA
4.21WHIP
1.25BABIP
.324GB/FB
1.48Left On Base
70.0%Exit Velocity
81.5 mphBarrels/BBE
5.1%Spin Rate
2455 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
21.4%Swinging Strike
10.1%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Mitch Keller See More
Todd Zola considers the impact of extra rest on starting pitchers and wonders if the Orioles will treat Corbin Burnes with the same care that the Brewers did.
Ronald Acuna holds onto the top spot in the RotoWire Roundtable despite his knee scare, but there's plenty of movement behind him.
Brad Johnson has moved to the NL Central, and in Cincinnati, Hunter Greene, with one of the biggest arms in baseball, clearly has considerable potential.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Through his first seven starts of 2022, Keller had a 6.61 ERA. After he was briefly demoted to a relief role, it appeared the Keller was on a continued trajectory of an underwhelming MLB career. However, the narrative quickly took a turn, as Keller re-entered the rotation and closed the campaign by maintaining a 3.22 ERA across his last 120.1 innings. He turned into a contact-heavy pitcher in that span by maintaining only a 20.7 K%, but that also allowed him to fill the strike zone and maintain an 8.8 BB% (career 9.7 BB%). Even more of a revelation was Keller's ability to keep batted balls on the ground, as his GB% spiked to 49.4% and HR/9 fell to 0.7. While those exact numbers may not be replicable, the positive results were made more believable by a tangible change in Keller's pitch mix. He threw his four-seam fastball less in exchange for introducing a sinker, so the tradeoff of swings and misses for groundballs is sensible. While his role once seemed to be in danger, Keller is locked in as a top-three pitcher in the Pirates' rotation, and he could be capable of turning in solid ratios without much strikeout or win upside.
More Fantasy News
Draws Opening Day nod
Pirates manager Derek Shelton said Thursday that Keller will serve as the club's Opening Day starter March 28 in Miami, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Nabs five-year contract extension
Keller agreed to a five-year contract extension with the Pirates on Thursday, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Avoids arbitration
Keller signed a one-year, $5.4425 million contract with the Pirates on Thursday to avoid arbitration, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Gets early shutdown
Keller will not start Sunday's season finale against the Marlins, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Punches out six in no-decision
Keller did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Phillies, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.