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Pitching Value Meter: Two for Tim

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week June 21-27

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

No-Brainers

1. Tim Lincecum - @HOU, BOS
2. Tommy Hanson - @CHW, DET
3. Clayton Kershaw - @LAA, NYY
4. Ubaldo Jimenez - BOS
5. Stephen Strasburg - KC
6. Roy Halladay - TOR
7. Ryan Dempster - @SEA, @CHW
8. Jamie Garcia - @TOR, @KC
9. Adam Wainwright - @TOR
10. Josh Johnson - SD
11. Roy Oswalt - SF, @TEX
12. Mat Latos - @TB, @FLA
13. Johan Santana - MIN
14. Anibal Sanchez - @BAL, SD
15. Matt Cain - @HOU
16. Tim Hudson - @CHW
17. Cole Hamels - TOR
18. Ted Lilly - @CHW
19. Chris Carpenter - @TOR
20. Mike Pelfrey - MIN
21. Kris Medlen - DET
22. Bronson Arroyo - @OAK, CLE
23. Yovani Gallardo - SEA
24. Ricky Nolasco - @BAL
25. Jon Niese - MIN, DET
26. Mike Leake - @OAK, CLE
27. Carlos Silva - @SEA
28. Randy Wells - @SEA
29. Carlos Zambrano - @CHW
30. Johnny Cueto - @OAK
31. Ian Kennedy - @TB
32. Brett Myers - SF
33. Jonathan Sanchez - BOS
34. Derek Lowe - @CHW

Borderline

35. R.A. Dickey - DET
36. Dan Haren NYY (I guess you have to use Dan Haren if you drafted/bought him, right?)
37. Jason Hammel - BOS
38. Joe Blanton - CLE
39. Clayton Richard - @FLA
40. Jamie Moyer - CLE, TOR
41. Livan Hernandez - KC, @BAL
42. Hiroki Kuroda - NYY
43. Chris Volstad - SD
44. Kyle Kendrick - CLE
45. Wade LeBlanc - @TB
46. Jhoulys Chacin - BOS, @LAA
47. Randy Wolf - SEA
48. Brad Lincoln - @OAK
49. Edwin Jackson - @TB
50. Manny Parra - MIN
51. Jeff Francis - @LAA
52. Jon Garland - @FLA
53. Barry Zito - @HOU
54. Kenshin Kawakami - DET
55. Wandy Rodriguez - SF
56. Aaron Harang - CLE
57. Nate Robertson - @BAL
58. Hisanori Takahashi - DET
59. Chris Narveson - MIN
60. Zach Duke - @TEX, @OAK

Extreme Caution Advised

61. Jeffrey Karstens - @OAK
62. Rodrigo Lopez - NYY, @TB
63. Jeff Suppan - @KC
64. Aaron Cook - @LAA
65. John Lannan - @BAL
66. John Ely - @LAA
67. Kevin Correia - @TB
68. Madison Bumgarner - BOS
69. Luis Atilano - KC
70. David Bush - MIN, SEA (late edit will be skipped this week)
71. J.D. Martin - @BAL
72. Brian Moehler - @TEX
73. Felipe Paulino - @TEX
74. Paul Maholm - @TEX
75. Ross Ohlendorf - @TEX
76. Adam Ottavino - @KC
77. Dontrelle Willis - NYY
78. Vicente Padilla - NYY
79. Carlos Monasterios - @LAA

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Reds fifth slot (Sam LeCure)

Two-start starters:
Tommy Hanson, Anibal Sanchez, Jonathon Niese, Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo, Roy Oswalt, David Bush, Zach Duke, Jamie Garcia, Rodrigo Lopez, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum

Notes:
Is it just me, or did the Nats do a great job setting up the traveling Stephen Strasburg show? Hes had one creampuff after another to mow down, with the Royals being this weeks victim. I have Dontrelle Willis listed this week, but theres a good chance this will be the last time that happens given his next opponent, the Yankees. Get Edinson Volquez (Tommy John surgery) back on your radar. Hes due back July 7 barring a setback, and is already reportedly hitting 96 mph in his rehab. Personally I find that hard to believe, but hes looking much better than expected so far. Just incredible progress. Grab him and stash him on your DL if you can. Bud Norris (shoulder) could be back as early as this week and hell replace with Brian Moehler or Felipe Paulino. Im going to guess the Astros hold Norris back until the week of June 28, but NL-only leaguers will want to monitor this situation over the next couple days. Im not sure how Kyle Kendrick held the Yankees to four hits in seven innings. Then again, Im equally unsure how Vernon Wells has turned back the clock four years. Looks like hitters have figured out John Ely, and at this rate, we may actually have a Claudio Vargas sighting in LA soon. Clayton Kershaw has arrived. In his last eight starts, the 22 year-old is 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA with a 61:21 K:BB in 54.1 innings. Thats a walk rate of 3.5. Still a tad high, but compare it to his mark in his first six starts this year 7.0. I can count on one hand how many NL pitchers Id rather have right now, and that list may shrink to one by years end. Dont forget how well Jonathon Niese was pitching late last year before getting hurt. What hes doing for the Mets right now is no fluke. A Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee probably puts the Mets over the top in the NL given how solid the rotation is 1-3 right now. Im anticipating Madison Bumgarner makes his 2010 debut this week, but its no certainty. Hes also likely to be slotted against the Red Sox, so unless we hear different, Id probably keep him benched this week. So Vicente Padilla (forearm) gets to make his return this Saturday (6/19) in Fenway Park, and then he gets the Yankees at home this coming week. Yeah, bench is a good place for him right now. .. Tough luck for LA with Chad Billingsley (groin) going down. Now theyre up to three big question marks in the rotation and no minor league ready starters.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

No-Brainers

1. Justin Verlander - @NYM, @ATL
2. Jon Lester - @COL, @SF
3. Cliff Lee - CHC
4. Jered Weaver - COL
5. David Price - ARI
6. Scott Baker - @MIL, @NYM
7. John Danks - ARL, CHC
8. Colby Lewis HOU (Houston is the new Washington)
9. CC Sabathia - @LAD
10. Francisco Liriano - @MIL
11. Zack Greinke - STL
12. Felix Hernandez - @MIL
13. Andy Pettitte - @ARI
14. Philip Hughes - @LAD
15. Matt Garza - SD
16. Jeff Niemann - ARI
17. Shaun Marcum - @PHI
18. James Shields - SD
19. Brett Cecil - STL, @PHI (tough starts)
20. Jeremy Guthrie - FLA, WAS
21. Wade Davis - SD, ARI (nice opponents here)
22. Jeremy Bonderman - @NYM
23. Clay Buchholz - @SF
24. Javier Vazquez - @ARI
25. Jason Vargas - CHC, @MIL
26. Gavin Floyd - ATL
27. Ricky Romero - STL
28. Jake Peavy - CHC
29. Mark Buehrle - ATL
30. A.J. Burnett - @ARI, @LAD
31. Max Scherzer - @ATL
32. C.J. Wilson - HOU
33. Joel Pineiro - LAD
34. Trevor Cahill - PIT
35. Jake Arrietta - WAS
36. Doug Fister - CHC
37. Brian Matusz - FLA

Borderline

38. John Lackey - @COL
39. Brandon Morrow - STL
40. Ben Sheets - PIT
41. Freddy Garcia - CHC
42. Kevin Slowey - @NYM
43. Rick Porcello - @ATL
44. Armando Galarraga - @NYM
45. Bruce Chen - @WAS, STL
46. Carl Pavano - @NYM
47. Scott Kazmir - LAD
48. Ervin Santana - LAD, COL
49. Dallas Braden - CIN
50. Gio Gonzalez CIN, PIT
51. Tim Wakefield - @COL
52. Daisuke Matsuzaka - @SF

Extreme caution advised

53. Tommy Hunter - PIT, HOU
54. Brian Bannister - @WAS
55. Justin Masterson - @CIN
56. Kyle Davies - STL
57. Joe Saunders - COL
58. Vincent Mazzaro - CIN
59. Scott Feldman - PIT
60. Matt Harrison - PIT
61. Kevin Millwood - FLA
62. Jesse Litsch - @PHI
63. Jake Westbrook - @PHI
64. Fausto Carmona - @PHI
65. David Huff - @CIN
66. Nick Blackburn - @MIL (Fridays start not so good)
67. Mitch Talbot - @PHI, @CIN
68. Anthony Lerew - @WAS
69. Ryan Rowland-Smith - @MIL
70. Chris Tillman WAS (tentative)

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
none

Two-start starters:
Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lester, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Wade Davis, Brett Cecil, John Danks, Mitch Talbot, Justin Verlander, Bruce Chen, Scott Baker, Ervin Santana, Gio Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, Tommy Hunter

Notes:
Anthony Lerew is subbing for the injured Luke Hochevar (elbow), but despite a solid outing against the Astros, its still the Astros and Lerew brings a 5.1 K/9 with him from Triple-A. Bradley Bergensen is a possibility to replace Chris Tillman in the Baltimore rotation this week. Tillman (8.40 ERA) simply isnt ready to be a consistent big league pitcher, but then again, few 22-year-olds are. Jeremy Hellickson continues to prove hes done with Triple-A, putting up a 6-2-1-1-1-5 line in his last start to lower his ERA to 2.42. Wade Davis, though, has pitched better lately, so Hellickson continues to bide his time. From what Ive seen of him, Jeremy Bonderman has looked really good this year. His 1.24 WHIP would be a career-best, while a 7.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are solid ratios as well. I think his turnaround is real. Monster game from Scott Baker against the Rockies: 7-2-0-0-1-12. Perhaps this gets him rolling. The talent is certainly there. Scott Kazmir has been better this month (2.12 ERA), but dont be fooled. Id put more stock in a 12:10 K:BB and the fact two of those three starts came against the As and Royals. The two starts (10 ER in 10.1 IP) were against NL teams, so perhaps Gio Gonzalez prefers the AL? Either way, he continues to be maddeningly frustrating, but the talent keeps him on more than one of my fantasy squads. Mark Buehrle appears to have turned things around in his last two starts. Hes 12-team mixed league relevant again. Jason Vargas 2.88 ERA, 4.84 xFIP. Yes, we can expect the nosedive soon, but then again, Jarrod Washburn was a similar pitcher in Seattle who was then exposed in Detroit. Vargas to his credit, though, has increased his FB% by 7.5 points, he walks few batters and hes allowing fewer line drives. Maybe a 3.50 ERA is possible. Poor Zack Greinke. Never mind the lack of run support, but when youre in a rotation where Bruce Chen may be the second best starter, thats just sad. Fortunately, the Royals have Michael Montgomery and other pitching prospects on the way. Ricky Romero leads the AL with 96.1 innings, putting him on pace for 232, or 54 more than last years total. Look out for a second-half fade if the Jays arent carefully monitoring his workload. David Price is 10-2 (leads AL) with a 2.31 ERA (also tops), but the 64:35 K:BB in 85.2 innings doesnt support those numbers. Hes still good enough to finish with 18 wins and a 3.00 ERA, but I dont see him keeping this up. Then again, I watched him hit 97 in his last start, so what do I know? Jake Peavy is dealing with a sore arm, so watch his updates this weekend. Tommy Hunter is dealing with a hip flexor, putting his status in doubt for this weeks two starts. Probably best to bench him either way.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Tim Lincecum - @HOU, BOS
2. Justin Verlander - @NYM, @ATL
3. Tommy Hanson - @CHW, DET
4. Clayton Kershaw - @LAA, NYY
5. Jon Lester - @COL, @SF
6. Ubaldo Jimenez - BOS
7. Stephen Strasburg - KC
8. Cliff Lee - CHC
9. Roy Halladay - TOR
10. Jered Weaver - COL
11. Ryan Dempster - @SEA, @CHW
12. Jamie Garcia - @TOR, @KC
13. Adam Wainwright - @TOR
14. David Price - ARI
15. Scott Baker - @MIL, @NYM
16. Josh Johnson - SD
17. Roy Oswalt - SF, @TEX
18. John Danks - ARL, CHC
19. Colby Lewis HOU (Houston is the new Washington)
20. CC Sabathia - @LAD
21. Mat Latos - @TB, @FLA
22. Johan Santana - MIN
23. Francisco Liriano - @MIL
24. Anibal Sanchez - @BAL, SD
25. Matt Cain - @HOU
26. Tim Hudson - @CHW
27. Cole Hamels - TOR
28. Zack Greinke - STL
29. Felix Hernandez - @MIL
30. Andy Pettitte - @ARI
31. Ted Lilly - @CHW
32. Philip Hughes - @LAD
33. Chris Carpenter - @TOR
34. Matt Garza - SD
35. Jeff Niemann - ARI
36. Mike Pelfrey - MIN
37. Shaun Marcum - @PHI
38. James Shields - SD
39. Kris Medlen - DET
40. Bronson Arroyo - @OAK, CLE
41. Yovani Gallardo - SEA
42. Brett Cecil - STL, @PHI (tough starts)
43. Ricky Nolasco - @BAL
44. Jon Niese - MIN, DET
45. Mike Leake - @OAK, CLE
46. Jeremy Guthrie - FLA, WAS
47. Carlos Silva - @SEA
48. Wade Davis - SD, ARI (nice opponents here)
49. Jeremy Bonderman - @NYM
50. Randy Wells - @SEA
51. Carlos Zambrano - @CHW
52. Clay Buchholz - @SF
53. Javier Vazquez - @ARI
54. Jason Vargas - CHC, @MIL
55. Johnny Cueto - @OAK
56. Gavin Floyd - ATL
57. Ricky Romero - STL
58. Jake Peavy - CHC
59. Mark Buehrle - ATL
60. Ian Kennedy - @TB
61. A.J. Burnett - @ARI, @LAD
62. Brett Myers - SF
63. Max Scherzer - @ATL
64. C.J. Wilson - HOU
65. Joel Pineiro - LAD
66. Trevor Cahill - PIT
67. Jake Arrietta - WAS
68. Jonathan Sanchez - BOS
69. Doug Fister - CHC
70. Derek Lowe - @CHW
71. R.A. Dickey - DET
72. Dan Haren NYY (I guess you have to use Dan Haren if you drafted/bought him, right?)
73. Jason Hammel BOS
74. Joe Blanton - CLE
75. Clayton Richard - @FLA
76. Brian Matusz - FLA
77. Jamie Moyer - CLE, TOR
78. Livan Hernandez - KC, @BAL
79. Hiroki Kuroda - NYY
80. Chris Volstad - SD
81. Kyle Kendrick - CLE
82. John Lackey - @COL
83. Brandon Morrow - STL
84. Ben Sheets - PIT
85. Freddy Garcia - CHC
86. Kevin Slowey - @NYM
87. Rick Porcello - @ATL
88. Wade LeBlanc - @TB
89. Armando Galarraga - @NYM
90. Bruce Chen - @WAS, STL
91. Carl Pavano - @NYM
92. Scott Kazmir - LAD
93. Jhoulys Chacin - BOS, @LAA
94. Randy Wolf - SEA
95. Brad Lincoln - @OAK
96. Edwin Jackson - @TB
97. Manny Parra - MIN
98. Jeff Francis - @LAA
99. Jon Garland - @FLA
100. Barry Zito - @HOU