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Pitching Value Meter: Home Cookin'

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week June 28 - July 4

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

No-Brainers

1. Adam Wainwright - ARI, MIL
2. Ubaldo Jimenez - @SD, SF
3. Chris Carpenter - ARI, MIL
4. Stephen Strasburg - @ATL, NYM
5. Roy Halladay - @CIN
6. Tim Lincecum - @COL
7. Tim Hudson - WAS, FLA
8. Dan Haren - @STL, LAD (solid against the Yankees)
9. Matt Cain - LAD, @COL
10. Josh Johnson - @ATL
11. Chad Billingsley - @ARI, @SF
12. Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
13. Cole Hamels - @PIT
14. Ted Lilly - PIT, CIN
15. Ricky Nolasco - NYM, @ATL
16. Mike Leake - PHI, @CHC
17. Jamie Garcia - MIL
18. Roy Oswalt - @SD
19. Mike Pelfrey - @FLA
20. Ryan Dempster - CIN
21. Yovani Gallardo - HOU
22. Johnny Cueto - PHI, @CHC
23. Brett Myers - @MIL, @SD
24. Tommy Hanson - FLA
25. Jason Hammel - @SD, SF
26. Mat Latos - HOU
27. Johan Santana - @WAS (Wow this is low, but have you seen him pitch lately? More below. )
28. Edwin Jackson - @STL
29. Kris Medlen - FLA
30. Anibal Sanchez - @ATL
31. Jon Niese - @WAS
32. Bronson Arroyo - @CHC
33. Manny Parra - HOU, @STL
34. Ian Kennedy - LAD
35. Jair Jurrjens - WAS
36. Hiroki Kuroda - @ARI
37. Wade LeBlanc - COL, HOU
38. Barry Zito - LAD, @COL

Borderline

39. Derek Lowe - WAS
40. Livan Hernandez - NYM
41. Jeff Francis - @SD
42. Bud Norris - @MIL, @SD
43. Joe Blanton - @CIN, @PIT
44. Wandy Rodriguez - @MIL
45. Carlos Silva - CIN
46. Vicente Padilla - @SF (looked good Friday vs. NYY)
47. Jon Garland - HOU
48. Aaron Harang - PHI
49. Jhoulys Chacin - SF
50. Carlos Zambrano PIT (suspension?)
51. Kevin Correia - COL, HOU
52. John Ely - @SF
53. Madison Bumgarner - @COL (tentative as of late Friday)
54. Chris Volstad - NYM
55. Clayton Richard - COL
56. Hisanori Takahashi - @FLA, @WAS
57. R.A. Dickey - @FLA, @WAS
58. Jonathan Sanchez - LAD
59. Kyle Kendrick - @CIN, @PIT
60. Randy Wells - PIT, CIN
61. Randy Wolf - @STL
62. Jamie Moyer - @PIT
63. Doug Davis - HOU, @STL
64. Brad Lincoln - @CHC
65. Rodrigo Lopez - LAD

Extreme Caution Advised

66. Aaron Cook - SF
67. J.D. Martin - @ATL
68. Adam Ottavino - MIL
69. Nate Robertson - NYM
70. Luis Atilano - NYM
71. Sam LeCure - @CHC
72. Brian Moehler - @SD
73. David Bush - @STL
74. Daniel McCutchen - PHI
75. Paul Maholm - @CHC, PHI
76. Jeffrey Karstens - @CHC, PHI
77. Matt Chico - @ATL, NYM
78. Ross Ohlendorf - PHI
79. Jeff Suppan - ARI
80. Dontrelle Willis - @STL

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
None

Two-start starters:
Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, R.A. Dickey (tentative), Hisanori Takahashi (tentative), Joe Blanton, Stephen Strasburg, Matt Chico, Randy Wells, Ted Lilly, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Bud Norris (tentative), Brett Myers, Manny Parra, Doug Davis, Paul Maholm, Jeffrey Karstens, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Dan Haren, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hammel, Chad Billingsley, Kevin Correia, Wade LeBlanc, Barry Zito, Matt Cain

Notes:
Personally, I have no problem with A.J. Hinch letting Edwin Jackson go 149 pitches in his no-hitter Friday. What does Hinch have to lose anyway? He's likely getting fired at some point this season. Johan Santana admitted Friday that he's still "recovering" from elbow surgery. That would explain the loss of velocity and 5.7 K/9. Joe Martinez has performed admirably (7-1, 3.16 ERA) for Triple-A Fresno, but the Giants are likely to turn to Madison Bumgarner this week considering his 2.23 ERA over his last 10 starts and the season-high 11 strikeouts last time out. Dontrelle Willis has a 44:50 K:BB in 60.2 innings this year. If he didn't have a cool nickname and threw right-handed instead of left, would he be a big league starter? Helps that the D-backs are utterly devoid of prospects at the upper levels of the minor leagues (I should know, as I live in Reno, the site of their Triple-A franchise). Roy Oswalt won't be going to the Cardinals due to his hefty salary and the pending mega-contract for Albert Pujols, but the Cards certainly will do something about the fact that they are using both Jeff Suppan and Adam Ottavino in the rotation. Like many teams, the Cards would be a great fit for Pedro Martinez. I'm back on board the Manny Parra bandwagon 3.52 ERA, 29:9 K:BB in 23 June innings. Bud Norris (biceps) returns for a two-start week, and with glowing reports on his rehab work, he's a sneaky two-start starter this week. Doug Davis (chest) should be returning this week. He struck out nine over five innings in his last rehab start and probably replaces Chris Narveson in the rotation. Sounds like the Reds are leaning toward using Aroldis Chapman as a reliever soon. Not the best of news for his fantasy owners, but $30 million says that he's a starter long-term. With a 5.5 BB/9, Chapman's command issues have kept him down a bit longer than expected given his impressive spring. Beyond Stephen Strasburg and Livan Hernandez, the Nats rotation is, to be kind, "unsettled." Matt Chico might join the rotation this week, but please look elsewhere for rotation help. Jair Jurrjens (hamstring) returns this week. The Braves have yet (as of Friday) to announce whether Kris Medlen or Kenshin Kawakami will move to the bullpen, but logic dictates the latter. Chad Billingsley (groin) makes his return this week, and it's none too soon for the pitching-thin Dodgers. Meanwhile, as of Friday afternoon, Dodger fans were still on pins and needles as to Charlie Haeger's fate.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

No-Brainers

1. Cliff Lee - @NYY, @DET
2. Philip Hughes - SEA, TOR
3. Francisco Liriano - DET, TB
4. Ricky Romero - @CLE, @NYY
5. Brandon Morrow - @CLE, @NYY
6. Javier Vazquez - SEA, TOR
7. Jon Lester - BAL
8. CC Sabathia - SEA
9. Jake Peavy - @KC
10. Jered Weaver - TEX
11. Clay Buchholz - BAL
12. Felix Hernandez - @NYY
13. David Price - @MIN
14. Andy Pettitte - TOR
15. Justin Verlander - SEA
16. Jeff Niemann - @MIN
17. Jeremy Bonderman - @MIN, SEA
18. Gavin Floyd - @KC
19. Zack Greinke - CHW
20. Colby Lewis - CHW
21. James Shields - @BOS, @MIN
22. Shaun Marcum - @CLE
23. Trevor Cahill - @CLE (love what I'm seeing from him lately)
24. John Danks - @TEX (re: Floyd v. Danks this week look at the matchups)
25. Fausto Carmona - TOR, OAK
26. Mark Buehrle - @KC, @TEX
27. Carl Pavano - TB
28. Dallas Braden - @BAL, @CLE
29. Ervin Santana - KC
30. Joel Pineiro - TEX, KC
31. Gio Gonzalez - @CLE
32. Jason Vargas - @DET
33. Andrew Oliver - @MIN
34. C.J. Wilson - @LAA

Borderline

35. Ben Sheets - @BAL
36. John Lackey - TB, BAL
37. Scott Baker - TB
38. Brian Matusz - OAK, @BOS
39. Daisuke Matsuzaka - TB
40. Matt Garza - @BOS
41. Brett Cecil - @NYY
42. Max Scherzer - SEA
43. Scott Kazmir - TEX
44. Doug Fister - @DET
45. Jake Arrietta - OAK
46. Justin Masterson - TOR
47. Freddy Garcia - @TEX
48. Jesse Litsch - @CLE
49. Jake Westbrook - TOR, OAK
50. Joe Saunders - KC
51. Vincent Mazzaro - @BAL
52. Kevin Millwood - OAK
53. Jeremy Guthrie - @BOS
54. A.J. Burnett - TOR
55. Armando Galarraga - @MIN

Extreme Caution Advised

56. Mitch Talbot - OAK
57. Kevin Slowey - DET
58. Brian Bannister - CHW
59. Bruce Chen - @LAA
60. Scott Feldman - @LAA
61. Tommy Hunter - CHW
62. Wade Davis - @MIN
63. Aaron Laffey - TOR
64. Anthony Lerew - CHW, @LAA
65. Kyle Davies - @LAA
66. Ryan Rowland-Smith - @NYY
67. Bradley Bergensen - @BOS
68. Matt Harrison - @LAA, CHW
69. Nick Blackburn - DET, TB

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Tim Wakefield

Two-start starters:
Brian Matusz, John Lackey, Philip Hughes, James Shields, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Gavin Floyd, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Bonderman, Anthony Lerew, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Joel Pineiro, Dallas Braden, Cliff Lee, Matt Harrison (tentative), Mark Buehrle (likely two starts unless he's pushed back to keep Gavin Floyd on regular rest)

Notes:
With Chris Tillman having been sent to Triple-A, the Orioles will give Bradley Bergensen another shot. Bergensen's 6.50 ERA and ugly peripherals in Baltimore this year should have him at or near the bottom of your watch lists. With five walks in his last start and a 4.90 ERA overall, Wade Davis is on thin ice. He's not a bad No. 5, but when you have Jeremy Hellickson (2.33 ERA, 90:21 K:BB in 88 innings) at Triple-A, it might be time to flip-flop the two. Apparently Aaron Laffey's 9:15 K:BB in 20.1 innings in Triple-A was enough for the Indians to promote him back to Cleveland. He's about as good a fantasy option as I am right now. Detroit's Andrew Oliver is getting the call from Double-A, and should be added quickly in all AL-only and deeper mixed leagues. Oliver was a second-round pick of the Tigers in last year's draft and had a solid 70:25 K:BB in 77.1 innings. Late edit: Six innings, two earned in his debut. Not too shabby. Keep him on your radar in all formats. I get the whole "don't draft for need" philosophy, particularly in the top 10 picks, but the Royals have a solid bounty of hitting prospects, and other than Mike Montgomery and the struggling Aaron Crow, there isn't a lot of pitching in the pipeline. Poor Zack Greinke he's part of a rotation with guys that wouldn't be in most other big league rotations. On a side note, Bruce Chen (actually solid so far), Anthony Lerew and Kyle Davis are all ex-Braves prospects. Seems like the Braves know who to keep and who to let go for the most part (notable exception perhaps being Neftali Feliz). Speaking of failing ex-Braves, Matt Harrison rejoins the Texas rotation after Dustin Nippert's predictably bad outings. Harrison has allowed seven homers in 47.1 innings and should be avoided. Nick Blackburn's four-year extension should serve as a warning sign to other GMs considering locking up starters whose stuff rates as below average. Blackburn has the typical very good Minnesota command, but a 2.9 K/9 just won't do. It might be closing in on time for Brian Duensing (1.95 ERA in relief) to get another shot. One run in eight innings for Rick Porcello in his first Triple-A start. He should be back in Detroit in no more than two weeks. Brandon Morrow has a 1.33 ERA in his last five starts and has discovered his command. That's a scary proposition for AL batters considering Morrow's stuff. Brandon League has been OK for Seattle, but this trade is looking like a huge win for the Blue Jays. Josh Beckett (back) is looking at a mid-July return to the Boston rotation. In his 11 years with the Braves, Greg Maddux produced a stellar 4.8 K:BB. This year for Cliff Lee, the number sits at 19.0 (76:4 K:BB). He's probably going to net a better trade package for the Mariners than the one they gave up to get him. Whenever I see Ricky Romero pitch, I don't see top-10 AL stuff, but a 2.85 ERA and 101 strikeouts (4th in the AL) speak for themselves.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Adam Wainwright - ARI, MIL
2. Ubaldo Jimenez - @SD, SF
3. Cliff Lee - @NYY, @DET
4. Chris Carpenter - ARI, MIL
5. Stephen Strasburg - @ATL, NYM
6. Philip Hughes - SEA, TOR
7. Francisco Liriano - DET, TB
8. Roy Halladay - @CIN
9. Tim Lincecum - @COL
10. Ricky Romero - @CLE, @NYY
11. Tim Hudson - WAS, FLA
12. Dan Haren - @STL, LAD (solid against the Yankees)
13. Matt Cain - LAD, @COL
14. Brandon Morrow - @CLE, @NYY
15. Javier Vazquez - SEA, TOR
16. Jon Lester - BAL
17. CC Sabathia - SEA
18. Jake Peavy - @KC
19. Jered Weaver - TEX
20. Josh Johnson - @ATL
21. Chad Billingsley - @ARI, @SF
22. Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
23. Cole Hamels - @PIT
24. Ted Lilly - PIT, CIN
25. Ricky Nolasco - NYM, @ATL
26. Mike Leake - PHI, @CHC
27. Jamie Garcia - MIL
28. Clay Buchholz - BAL
29. Roy Oswalt - @SD
30. Felix Hernandez - @NYY
31. David Price - @MIN
32. Mike Pelfrey - @FLA
33. Andy Pettitte - TOR
34. Justin Verlander - SEA
35. Jeff Niemann - @MIN
36. Jeremy Bonderman - @MIN, SEA
37. Ryan Dempster - CIN
38. Yovani Gallardo - HOU
39. Gavin Floyd - @KC
40. Zack Greinke - CHW
41. Johnny Cueto - PHI, @CHC
42. Colby Lewis - CHW
43. James Shields - @BOS, @MIN
44. Brett Myers - @MIL, @SD
45. Tommy Hanson - FLA
46. Shaun Marcum - @CLE
47. Jason Hammel - @SD, SF
48. Mat Latos - HOU
49. Johan Santana - @WAS (Wow this is low, but have you seen him pitch lately?)
50. Trevor Cahill - @CLE (love what I'm seeing from him lately)
51. Edwin Jackson - @STL
52. Kris Medlen - FLA
53. Anibal Sanchez - @ATL
54. John Danks - @TEX (re: Floyd v. Danks this week look at the matchups)
55. Fausto Carmona - TOR, OAK
56. Jon Niese - @WAS
57. Mark Buehrle - @KC, @TEX
58. Bronson Arroyo - @CHC
59. Carl Pavano - TB
60. Dallas Braden - @BAL, @CLE
61. Ervin Santana - KC
62. Joel Pineiro - TEX, KC
63. Gio Gonzalez - @CLE
64. Jason Vargas - @DET
65. Manny Parra - HOU, @STL
66. Ian Kennedy - LAD
67. Andrew Oliver - @MIN
68. C.J. Wilson - @LAA
69. Jair Jurrjens - WAS
70. Hiroki Kuroda - @ARI
71. Wade LeBlanc - COL, HOU
72. Barry Zito - LAD, @COL
73. Derek Lowe - WAS
74. Livan Hernandez - NYM
75. Jeff Francis - @SD
76. Bud jNorris - @MIL, @SD
77. Ben Sheets - @BAL
78. John Lackey - TB, BAL
79. Scott Baker - TB
80. Joe Blanton - @CIN, @PIT
81. Brian Matusz - OAK, @BOS
82. Daisuke Matsuzaka - TB
83. Wandy Rodriguez - @MIL
84. Carlos Silva - CIN
85. Matt Garza - @BOS
86. Brett Cecil - @NYY
87. Max Scherzer - SEA
88. Vicente Padilla - @SF (looked good Friday vs. NYY)
89. Scott Kazmir - TEX
90. Jon Garland - HOU
91. Aaron Harang - PHI
92. Jhoulys Chacin - SF
93. Carlos Zambrano PIT (suspension?)
94. Doug Fister - @DET
95. Kevin Correia - COL, HOU
96. John Ely - @SF
97. Madison Bumgarner - @COL (tentative as of late Friday)
98. Jake Arrietta - OAK
99. Chris Volstad - NYM
100. Justin Masterson - TOR