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Pitching Value Meter: Lone Star All-Star

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week 7/12 – 7/18

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

It's All-Star week, so I'll start with the caveat that I have even less certainty this week than normal around how managers will slot these guys coming out of the break. I'm going to go with the following assumptions:

1. For the most part, stud veteran pitchers will get a start.

2. Young guys with probably innings limits will get skipped (Mat Latos and Phil Hughes to name a couple).

3. Guys with injuries expected to return "just after the break" will pitch. This means starts from Shaun Marcum and Jorge De La Rosa.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Josh Johnson - WAS
2.Tim Lincecum - NYM
3.Johan Santana - @SF
4.Ubaldo Jimenez - @CIN
5.Roy Halladay - @CHC
6.Adam Wainwright - LAD
7.Stephen Strasburg - @FLA
8.Clayton Kershaw - @STL
9.Cole Hamels - @CHC
10.Chris Carpenter - LAD
11.Roy Oswalt - @PIT
12.Tim Hudson - MIL
13.Dan Haren - @SD
14.Matt Cain - NYM
15.Tommy Hanson - MIL
16.Ricky Nolasco - WAS
17.Ryan Dempster - PHI
18.Johnny Cueto - COL
19.Ted Lilly - PHI
20.Jamie Garcia - LAD
21.Chad Billingsley - @STL
22.Bronson Arroyo - COL
23.Brett Myers - @PIT
24.Vicente Padilla - @STL
25.Jonathan Sanchez - NYM
26.Jair Jurrjens - MIL
27.Edwin Jackson - @SD
28.Mike Pelfrey - @SF

Borderline

29.Derek Lowe - MIL
30.R.A. Dickey - @SF
31.Tom Gorzelanny - PHI
32.Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT
33.Edinson Volquez - COL
34.Hiroki Kuroda - @STL
35.Wade LeBlanc - ARI
36.Kevin Correia - ARI
37.Barry Zito - NYM
38.Jon Garland - ARI
39.Nate Robertson - WAS
40.Hisanori Takahashi - @SF
41.Joe Blanton - @CHC
42.Jamie Moyer - @CHC
43.Rodrigo Lopez - @SD
44.Carlos Silva - PHI
45.Manny Parra - @ATL

Extreme Caution Advised

46.Paul Maholm - HOU
47.Doug Davis - @ATL
48.Zach Duke - HOU
49.Ross Ohlendorf - HOU
50.Jorge De La Rosa - @CIN
51.Craig Stammen - @FLA
52.J.D. Martin - @FLA
53.David Bush - @ATL
54.Aaron Cook - @CIN
55.Jeff Suppan - LAD
56.Chris Narveson - @ATL

Skipped This Week

57.Kris Medlen
58.Anibal Sanchez
59.Chris Volstad – demoted to AAA
60.Jon Niese
61.Kyle Kendrick
62.Luis Atilano
63.Livan Hernandez
64.Randy Wells
65.Aaron Harang - injured
66.Mike Leake
67.Brian Moehler
68.Bud Norris
69.Randy Wolf
70.Daniel McCutchen – demoted to AAA
71.Brad Lincoln
72.Blake Hawksworth
73.Ian Kennedy
74.Barry Enright
75.Jeff Francis
76.Jason Hammel
77.John Ely
78.Clayton Richard
79.Mat Latos -
80.Madison Bumgarner

Two-start starters:
none

Notes:
It's not surprising that Clayton Kershaw had a 12-strikeout game, but that he did it while tossing just 97 pitches is incredible. The formerly-erratic Kershaw now has a 48:8 K:BB in his last six starts and may already be a top-10 overall fantasy pitcher. … It's pretty impressive what Johnny Cueto is doing lately – holding the Phillies lineup to four hits in his last outing. Now we just need to see a few more strikeouts before Cueto ranks as a top fantasy starter. … Tim Lincecum had allowed eight runs over his previous two starts before Wednesday's gem against the Brewers. He'll be just fine. … Another ugly start from Chris Narveson on Wednesday. Manny Parra's job security just increased. … I watched all of Josh Johnson's start against the Dodgers and am wondering where I'd rank him among Lincecum, Strasburg, Jimenez and Halladay. With a sub-2.00 ERA, I think I'd have to slot him in the top-three somewhere. … The Pirates added yet another No. 5 starter type in Sean Gallagher who will, for now, replace Daniel McCutchen in the rotation. When is Bryan Morris going to be ready again? …. Jonathon Niese may already be the Mets' second-best starter. You can debate him versus Mike Pelfrey, but either way, at least both have secured rotation spots for the long haul. … Fortunately, Brad Penny's lat injury isn't as bad as Jake Peavy's. Peavy is done for the season and will undergo surgery on his detached right shoulder muscle. He hopes to be ready for spring training. … Yeah, I'm not excited about Oliver Perez's (knee) 5.2 solid innings in High-A ball. I think I'd rather take a chance on Dana Eveland, even if Eveland starts throwing right-handed. … The Dodgers were forced to give up stud-in-waiting Carlos Santana to acquire Casey Blake a couple years ago. They have an owner begging for spare change in front of the 110 freeway onramp near Chavez Ravine, and now they want to acquire Roy Oswalt? Fat chance. Maybe if Frank McCourt can convince his soon-to-be ex-wife that she only needs three houses and just two massages a week. … Alex Sanabia replaces the recently-demoted Chris Volstad in the Florida rotation. Sanabia had a 2.03 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 14 Double-A starts, so he's at least worth an NL-only flier. I probably wouldn't go more than $2, however. … This is looking very promising. Jordan Zimmerman appears way ahead of schedule from last year's Tommy John procedure. Zimmerman tossed two innings in his first minor league rehab outing last Saturday and was already clocked in the mid 90s. He's a worthy potential No. 2 to Stephen Strasburg. … Vicente Padilla has a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts and has looked very good doing it. I'm seeing the movement on his fastball that I saw at points last year.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Cliff Lee - @Bos
2.Jered Weaver - SEA
3.Jon Lester - TEX
4.Felix Hernandez - @LAA
5.Zack Greinke - OAK
6.CC Sabathia - TB
7.Ricky Romero - @BAL
8.John Danks - @MIN
9.Clay Buchholz - TEX
10.Brett Cecil - @BAL
11.Justin Verlander - @CLE
12.Max Scherzer - @CLE
13.Francisco Liriano - CHW
14.Trevor Cahill - @KC
15.Andrew Oliver - @CLE
16.Gio Gonzalez - @KC
17.Andy Pettitte - TB
18.Gavin Floyd - @MIN
19.Shaun Marcum - @BAL
20.Jeremy Bonderman - @CLE
21.Scott Baker - CHW
22.Ervin Santana – SEA

Borderline

23.Carl Pavano - CHW
24.Ben Sheets - @KC
25.Jeff Niemann - @NYY
26.Brian Matusz - TOR
27.Jeremy Guthrie - TOR
28.Colby Lewis - @BOS
29.John Lackey - TEX
30.Joel Pineiro - SEA
31.James Shields - @NYY
32.Mark Buehrle - @MIN
33.Joe Saunders - SEA
34.Freddy Garcia - @MIN
35.Fausto Carmona - DET
36.Jason Vargas - @LAA
37.Matt Garza - @NYY
38.Doug Fister - @LAA

Extreme Caution Advised

39.Chris Tillman - TOR
40.Tim Wakefield - TEX
41.A.J. Burnett - TB
42.Justin Masterson - DET
43.Jake Westbrook - DET
44.Kevin Slowey - CHW
45.C.J. Wilson - @BOS
46.Brian Bannister - OAK
47.Mitch Talbot - DET
48.Kyle Davies - OAK
49.Scott Feldman - @BOS
50.Tommy Hunter - @BOS

Skipped This Week

51.Kevin Millwood - injured
52.Jake Arrietta
53.Daisuke Matsuzaka
54.Javier Vazquez
55.Philip Hughes
56.David Price
57.Wade Davis
58.Brandon Morrow
59.Jesse Litsch
60.Dan Hudson
61.Aaron Laffey
62.Armando Galarraga
63.Anthony Lerew
64.Bruce Chen
65.Nick Blackburn
66.Scott Kazmir
67.Vincent Mazzaro
68.Dallas Braden
69.Erik Bedard
70.Omar Beltre

Two-start starters:
none

Notes:
Cliff Lee was traded Friday to the Rangers for a package headlined by Justin Smoak. That's a solid ROI. The Mariners also received 2007 first-round pick Blake Beavan, who has a 2.78 ERA a Double-A Frisco this season. … I'm starting to think the Rays made the right selection in David Price at No. 1 overall a few years ago. With 12 wins (managers like that) and a 2.42 ERA, we could see Price starting the All-Star game, though Cliff Lee could have a beef. … With a 2.44 ERA and 10.6 K/9 since returning from a brief minor league stint, Max Scherzer is probably giving managers of struggling starters the idea that maybe a stint in Triple-A is beneficial. No word on whether the Indians are considering sending down their entire rotation. … It was looking like Chicago's Dan Hudson would have to wait for a trade or injury and now we have Jake Peavy (torn lat … ouch). Hudson should be the primary beneficiary of Peavy's injury and comes to the big leagues with a 108:31 K:BB in 93.1 innings. … The Jays have some solid young pitching in Toronto, with Brett Cecil being somewhat overlooked. Cecil has had a couple bumps in the road, but overall, we'll take eight wins and a 3.97 ERA. … After tossing a shutout in his last Triple-A start, Chris Tillman should be a fixture in the Baltimore rotation the rest of the year. He's probably not a 12-team mixed non-keeper option just yet, but he certainly has the talent to be so –watch his next start closely. … Perhaps Scott Baker is the new Javier Vazquez – great peripherals, continued mediocrity. Baker is apparently pitching with tendinitis in his elbow, so perhaps that's part of the reason his ERA is closing in on 5.00, but guys with a 95:19 K:BB should be getting better results. …

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Cliff Lee - @Bos
2.Josh Johnson - WAS
3.Tim Lincecum - NYM
4.Jered Weaver - SEA
5.Johan Santana - @SF
6.Ubaldo Jimenez - @CIN
7.Roy Halladay - @CHC
8.Jon Lester - TEX
9.Adam Wainwright - LAD
10.Felix Hernandez - @LAA
11.Zack Greinke - OAK
12.Stephen Strasburg - @FLA
13.CC Sabathia - TB
14.Clayton Kershaw - @STL
15.Ricky Romero - @BAL
16.John Danks - @MIN
17.Cole Hamels - @CHC
18.Clay Buchholz - TEX
19.Chris Carpenter - LAD
20.Roy Oswalt - @PIT
21.Brett Cecil - @BAL
22.Justin Verlander - @CLE
23.Tim Hudson - MIL
24.Max Scherzer - @CLE
25.Francisco Liriano - CHW
26.Dan Haren - @SD
27.Matt Cain - NYM
28.Trevor Cahill - @KC
29.Tommy Hanson - MIL
30.Andrew Oliver - @CLE
31.Ricky Nolasco - WAS
32.Ryan Dempster - PHI
33.Johnny Cueto - COL
34.Ted Lilly - PHI
35.Jamie Garcia - LAD
36.Chad Billingsley - @STL
37.Gio Gonzalez - @KC
38.Bronson Arroyo - COL
39.Andy Pettitte - TB
40.Gavin Floyd - @MIN
41.Brett Myers - @PIT
42.Vicente Padilla - @STL
43.Jonathan Sanchez - NYM
44.Jair Jurrjens - MIL
45.Edwin Jackson - @SD
46.Mike Pelfrey - @SF
47.Shaun Marcum - @BAL
48.Jeremy Bonderman - @CLE
49.Scott Baker - CHW
50.Derek Lowe - MIL
51.Ervin Santana – SEA
52.R.A. Dickey - @SF
53.Tom Gorzelanny - PHI
54.Carl Pavano - CHW
55.Ben Sheets - @KC
56.Jeff Niemann - @NYY
57.Brian Matusz - TOR
58.Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT
59.Jeremy Guthrie - TOR
60.Colby Lewis - @BOS
61.John Lackey - TEX
62.Edinson Volquez - COL
63.Joel Pineiro - SEA
64.Hiroki Kuroda - @STL
65.James Shields - @NYY
66.Mark Buehrle - @MIN
67.Wade LeBlanc - ARI
68.Kevin Correia - ARI
69.Barry Zito - NYM
70.Jon Garland - ARI
71.Joe Saunders - SEA
72.Freddy Garcia - @MIN
73.Fausto Carmona - DET
74.Nate Robertson - WAS
75.Hisanori Takahashi - @SF
76.Joe Blanton - @CHC
77.Jamie Moyer - @CHC
78.Rodrigo Lopez - @SD
79.Jason Vargas - @LAA
80.Carlos Silva – PHI (check status)
81.Matt Garza - @NYY
82.Manny Parra - @ATL
83.Paul Maholm - HOU
84.Doug Fister - @LAA
85.Doug Davis - @ATL
86.Zach Duke - HOU
87.Ross Ohlendorf - HOU
88.Chris Tillman - TOR
89.Tim Wakefield - TEX
90.A.J. Burnett - TB
91.Jorge De La Rosa - @CIN
92.Justin Masterson - DET
93.Jake Westbrook - DET
94.Kevin Slowey - CHW
95.C.J. Wilson - @BOS
96.Brian Bannister - OAK
97.Mitch Talbot - DET
98.Craig Stammen - @FLA
99.J.D. Martin - @FLA
100.David Bush - @ATL