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Pitching Value Meter: Time's Up?

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week July 26 – Aug. 1

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Josh Johnson - @SF, @SD
2.Stephen Strasburg - ATL, PHI
3.Cole Hamels - ARI, @WAS
4.Dan Haren - @PHI, @NYM
5.Adam Wainwright - @NYM
6.Ubaldo Jimenez - PIT
7.Roy Halladay - ARI
8.Ricky Nolasco - @SF, @SD
9.Matt Cain - FLA, LAD
10.Chad Billingsley - @SD, @SF
11.Tommy Hanson - @WAS, @CIN
12.Brett Myers - CHC, MIL
13.Chris Carpenter - PIT
14.Clayton Kershaw - @SF
15.Jaime Garcia - @NYM, PIT
16.Roy Oswalt - MIL
17.Tim Lincecum – LAD (looked awful in last start against Dodgers)
18.Tim Hudson - @WAS
19.Bronson Arroyo - @MIL, ATL
20.Yovani Gallardo - CIN
21.Jon Niese - STL, ARI
22.Mat Latos - FLA
23.Johan Santana - STL
24.Hiroki Kuroda - @SD
25.Ryan Dempster - @COL
26.Edinson Volquez - @MIL
27.Barry Zito - FLA, LAD
28.Ian Kennedy - @NYM
29.Anibal Sanchez - @SF
30.Jair Jurrjens - @CIN
31.Joe Blanton - COL, @WAS
32.Johnny Cueto - ATL
33.Kris Medlen - @CIN
34.Vicente Padilla - @SD
35.Randy Wells - @HOU
36.Madison Bumgarner - FLA
37.Bud Norris - CHC
38.J.A. Happ - @WAS
39.Jonathan Sanchez - FLA
40.Ted Lilly - @HOU
41.Barry Enright - @NYM
42.Clayton Richard - LAD
43.Derek Lowe - @WAS
44.Jon Garland - LAD, FLA

Borderline

45.Jorge De La Rosa - PIT, CHC
46.Travis Wood - @MIL
47.Livan Hernandez - ATL
48.Mike Leake - ATL
49.R.A. Dickey - ARI
50.Carlos Silva - @HOU, @COL
51.Edwin Jackson - @PHI
52.Hisanori Takahashi - STL
53.Mike Pelfrey - ARI
54.Tom Gorzelanny - @COL
55.Wade LeBlanc - FLA
56.Wandy Rodriguez - MIL
57.Aaron Cook - PIT
58.Alejandro Sanabia - @SF
59.Blake Hawksworth - PIT
60.Chris Volstad - @SD
61.Jason Hammel - @PHI, CHC
62.Jeff Francis - CHC
63.Kevin Correia - LAD

Extreme Caution Advised

64.David Bush - @HOU
65.Paul Maholm - @COL
66.Randy Wolf - CIN, @HOU
67.Rodrigo Lopez - @PHI
68.Zach Duke - @COL, @STL
69.Carlos Monasterios - @SF
70.Craig Stammen - ATL
71.Doug Davis - CIN
72.Kyle Kendrick - ARI
73.Manny Parra - @HOU
74.Ross Detwiler - PHI
75.Brad Lincoln - @STL
76.J.D. Martin - PHI
77.Ross Ohlendorf - @COL
78.Jeffrey Karstens - @STL
79.Wesley Wright – CHC
80.Jeff Suppan - @NYM

Two-Start Starters:

Note: The Brewers could choose to skip Manny Parra this week and make Yovani Gallardo a two-start starter.

Tommy Hanson
Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Jonathon Niese
Joe Blanton
Cole Hamels
Stephen Strasburg
Carlos Silva
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez – TENTATIVE – assumes Mike Leake is skipped (to limit innings)
Brett Myers – TENTATIVE – assumes Wesley Wright is skipped (and why wouldn’t he be?)
Randy Wolf
Zach Duke
Jaime Garcia
Dan Haren
Jason Hammel
Jorge De La Rosa
Chad Billingsley
Jon Garland
Barry Zito
Matt Cain

Notes:
If you believe the rumors, Roy Oswalt is all but signed, sealed and delivered to St. Louis. This obviously gives the Cardinals an elite 1-2-3 punch atop the rotation (No. 4 Jaime Garcia wouldn’t be so bad either), but I’m having trouble seeing how the Cardinals can afford all these guys past 2011 considering Albert Pujols’ upcoming contract. … NL-only leaguers may want to prepare for the loss of Dan Haren. Four of the five teams supposedly in the lead for his services are AL squads, and the other, St. Louis, appears more focused on Roy Oswalt. … Be wary of Clayton Kershaw’s suspension this week. He’ll have a start pushed back at some point, but no word on when the appeal will be heard. … If my projections hold, Stephen Strasburg will face Tommy Hanson and Cole Hamels this week. Big leagues are tough, eh kid? … Jamie Moyer is done for the foreseeable future with an elbow injury, one that could require Tommy John surgery and unfortunately end his career. Moyer will turn 50 in November 2012 and it would have been a nice story to see him pitch at that age, but this isn’t looking good. J.A. Happ (forearm) will be recalled from his rehab assignment and take Moyer’s rotation spot. Happ was reportedly hitting 92-93 mph and makes for a nice deeper league pickup. … Homer Bailey (shoulder) is nearing a return, but it’s unclear where he fits (if anywhere) right now. Travis Wood and Mike Leake don’t deserve to be bumped. … It sounds as if Mike Pelfrey’s (12.89 ERA in his last four starts) recent struggles are mental rather than physical, but what has happened to him is a big mystery considering he had a 2.71 ERA through June 25. … Ross Detwiler will get the nod over Matt Chico to replace the injured Luis Atilano (elbow) in the Nats’ rotation. Detwiler is a former No. 6 overall pick (ahead of Madison Bumgarner and Jason Heyward) back in 2007 and is worth a shot in NL-only leagues despite how disappointing he’s been since being drafted. … Matt Cain appears poised for a strong second half, as he’s opened with a 1.20 ERA and wins in both of his starts after the break. … James McDonald was given just one start (5 IP, 4 ER) before being banished to the bullpen. Unless the Dodgers pull off a trade this week, expect McDonald, Carlos Monasterios (next up) and John Ely to be a revolving door in the No. 5 hole. … Carlos Zambrano will apparently rejoin the Cubs this week, but will work out of the bullpen, perhaps for the rest of the season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Cliff Lee - OAK, @LAA
2.CC Sabathia - @CLE, @TB
3.Felix Hernandez - @CHW, @MIN
4.Francisco Liriano - SEA, @KC
5.Justin Verlander - @TB, @BOS
6.Clay Buchholz - @LAA, DET
7.Zack Greinke - MIN, BAL
8.Gavin Floyd - SEA, OAK
9.Jered Weaver - BOS, TEX (tough matchups)
10.Jon Lester - DET
11.Max Scherzer - @TB, @BOS
12.John Danks - SEA, OAK
13.James Shields - DET, NYY
14.David Price - DET
15.Brandon Morrow – BAL (could be two-start starter – monitor status)
16.Javier Vazquez - @CLE, @TB
17.Josh Beckett - @LAA
18.Philip Hughes - @TB
19.Brett Cecil - CLE
20.Ricky Romero - BAL
21.Matt Garza - DET, NYY
22.Jeff Niemann - DET
23.Shaun Marcum - CLE
24.C.J. Wilson - OAK
25.John Lackey - @LAA (got boos?)
26.Trevor Cahill - @TEX
27.Carl Pavano - @KC
28.Colby Lewis - OAK
29.A.J. Burnett - @CLE
30.Mark Buehrle - SEA
31.Jason Vargas - @CHW
32.Scott Baker - SEA
33.Brett Anderson - @CHW
34.Dan Hudson - OAK
35.Freddy Garcia - SEA
36.Daisuke Matsuzaka - DET
37.Joel Pineiro - BOS, TEX (use him, but these matchups don’t look good)
38.Brian Matusz - @KC
39.Jeanmar Gomez – NYY, @TOR
40.Jeremy Bonderman - @TB
41.Ben Sheets - @CHW

Borderline

42.Dallas Braden - @TEX, @CHW
43.Doug Fister - @MIN
44.Tommy Hunter - @LAA
45.Jeremy Guthrie - @TOR
46.Sergio Mitre - @CLE
47.Wade Davis - NYY
48.Rick Porcello - @TB
49.Jesse Litsch - CLE
50.Sean O'Sullivan - BAL
51.Justin Masterson - @TOR
52.Brian Bannister - MIN
53.Brian Duensing - @KC
54.Kevin Slowey - SEA
55.Joe Saunders - BOS
56.Ervin Santana - TEX
57.Gio Gonzalez - @TEX

Extreme Caution Advised

58.Kyle Davies - BAL
59.Rich Harden - @LAA
60.Bruce Chen – MIN, BAL
61.Kevin Millwood - @TOR, @KC
62.Jake Arrieta - @KC
63.Bradley Bergesen - @TOR, @KC
64.Jake Westbrook - NYY, @TOR
65.Fausto Carmona – NYY
66.Eddie Bonine - @TB (tentative)
67.Mitch Talbot - NYY
68.Armando Galarraga - @BOS
69.Brian Tallet - BAL
70.David Pauley - @CHW
71.Ryan Rowland-Smith - @CHW

Two-Start Starters:

Bradley Bergesen
Kevin Millwood
Clay Buchholz
Javier Vazquez
CC Sabathia
Matt Garza
James Shields
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Jeanmar Gomez - TENTATIVE
Jake Westbrook
Max Scherzer
Justin Verlander
Zack Greinke
Bruce Chen
Francisco Liriano
Joel Pineiro
Jered Weaver – TENTATIVE assumes No.5 slot (whomever that is) is skipped
Dallas Braden
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Ryan Rowland-Smith

Notes:
It appears Justin Masterson will be shut down in September due to workload issues. Masterson has had some ugly games, but he also has a two-hit shutout of the Red Sox to show for his work this year. … A.J. Burnett looked pretty good in a rain-shortened game on Friday. No word on how the door that met with Burnett’s fist is doing. … Rich Harden (glute) has a 7.94 ERA in three minor league rehab appearances. That said, starting him this week (assuming he does rejoin the club) is playing with fire. … With the Royals trading for Sean O’Sullivan, Bruce Chen, who allowed five runs in six innings (Yankees) last time out, will take his rotation spot. Anthony Lerew might have been the guy, but he’s been DFA’d. … Derek Holland may just be a week out from a return from shoulder and knee injuries. Harden bumps Scott Feldman this week, but I’m not sure where Holland fits in. … Jeanmar Gomez tossed seven scoreless innings in his big league debut before being sent to Triple-A. Of course, with Aaron Laffey (shoulder) going on the DL on Friday, Gomez is back and will get two starts this week. … With Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker disappointing this year, the Twins have been propped up by the pitching of Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano. At 12-6, Pavano has an outside chance at winning 20 games, despite a less-than-dominant 6.8 K/9. Still, an 81:19 K:BB is quite impressive. … We might just have to start a Cliff Lee K:BB watch. That ratio currently sits at a mind-boggling 101:7 (14.4). If that holds, it would be an all-time record, eclipsing the 11.0 mark (143:13) Bret Saberhagen recorded in 1994. … Maybe now we’re finally seeing some consistency from Gavin Floyd. In his last nine starts, Floyd has a 1.16 ERA and 52:14 K:BB.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Josh Johnson - @SF, @SD
2.Cliff Lee - OAK, @LAA
3.Stephen Strasburg - ATL, PHI
4.CC Sabathia - @CLE, @TB
5.Felix Hernandez - @CHW, @MIN
6.Cole Hamels - ARI, @WAS
7.Dan Haren - @PHI, @NYM
8.Francisco Liriano - SEA, @KC
9.Justin Verlander - @TB, @BOS
10.Zack Greinke - MIN, BAL
11.Adam Wainwright - @NYM
12.Ubaldo Jimenez - PIT
13.Clay Buchholz - @LAA, DET
14.Roy Halladay - ARI
15.Gavin Floyd - SEA, OAK
16.Jered Weaver - BOS, TEX (tough matchups)
17.Ricky Nolasco - @SF, @SD
18.Matt Cain - FLA, LAD
19.Jon Lester - DET
20.Chad Billingsley - @SD, @SF
21.Tommy Hanson - @WAS, @CIN
22.Brett Myers - CHC, MIL
23.Chris Carpenter - PIT
24.Clayton Kershaw - @SF
25.Max Scherzer - @TB, @BOS
26.Jamie Garcia - @NYM, PIT
27.Roy Oswalt - MIL
28.Tim Lincecum – LAD (looked awful in last start against Dodgers)
29.Tim Hudson - @WAS
30.John Danks - SEA, OAK
31.James Shields - DET, NYY
32.Bronson Arroyo - @MIL, ATL
33.David Price - DET
34.Yovani Gallardo - CIN
35.Brandon Morrow – BAL (could be two-start starter – monitor status)
36.Javier Vazquez - @CLE, @TB
37.Josh Beckett - @LAA
38.Philip Hughes - @TB
39.Jon Niese - STL, ARI
40.Mat Latos - FLA
41.Johan Santana - STL
42.Hiroki Kuroda - @SD
43.Brett Cecil - CLE
44.Ricky Romero - BAL
45.Ryan Dempster - @COL
46.Edinson Volquez - @MIL
47.Matt Garza - DET, NYY
48.Barry Zito - FLA, LAD
49.Ian Kennedy - @NYM
50.Jeff Niemann - DET
51.Shaun Marcum - CLE
52.Anibal Sanchez - @SF
53.C.J. Wilson - OAK
54.Jair Jurrjens - @CIN
55.John Lackey - @LAA (got boos?)
56.Trevor Cahill - @TEX
57.Joe Blanton - COL, @WAS
58.Carl Pavano - @KC
59.Colby Lewis - OAK
60.Johnny Cueto - ATL
61.Kris Medlen - @CIN
62.Vicente Padilla - @SD
63.A.J. Burnett - @CLE
64.Randy Wells - @HOU
65.Madison Bumgarner - FLA
66.Mark Buehrle - SEA
67.Bud Norris - CHC
68.J.A. Happ - @WAS
69.Jonathan Sanchez - FLA
70.Ted Lilly - @HOU
71.Barry Enright - @NYM
72.Clayton Richard - LAD
73.Derek Lowe - @WAS
74.Jason Vargas - @CHW
75.Jon Garland - LAD, FLA
76.Scott Baker - SEA
77.Brett Anderson - @CHW
78.Dan Hudson - OAK
79.Freddy Garcia - SEA
80.Daisuke Matsuzaka - DET
81.Joel Pineiro - BOS, TEX (use him, but these matchups don’t look good)
82.Jorge De La Rosa - PIT, CHC
83.Brian Matusz - @KC
84.Jeanmar Gomez – NYY, @TOR
85.Travis Wood - @MIL
86.Jeremy Bonderman - @TB
87.Ben Sheets - @CHW
88.Livan Hernandez - ATL
89.Mike Leake - ATL
90.Dallas Braden - @TEX, @CHW
91.R.A. Dickey - ARI
92.Carlos Silva - @HOU, @COL
93.Doug Fister - @MIN
94.Tommy Hunter - @LAA
95.Jeremy Guthrie - @TOR
96.Sergio Mitre - @CLE
97.Wade Davis - NYY
98.Rick Porcello - @TB
99.Edwin Jackson - @PHI
100.Hisanori Takahashi - STL

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