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Pitching Value Meter: Two Starts for Tim

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week Aug. 9-15

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Tim Lincecum - CHC, SD
2.Ubaldo Jimenez - @NYM, MIL
3.Josh Johnson - @CIN
4.Adam Wainwright - @CIN
5.Stephen Strasburg - FLA, ARI
6.Chris Carpenter - @CIN, CHC
7.Roy Halladay - @NYM
8.Ryan Dempster - @SF, @STL
9.Cole Hamels - LAD
10.Johan Santana - PHI
11.Clayton Kershaw - @PHI
12.Anibal Sanchez - @WAS, @CIN
13.Mat Latos - @SF
14.Vicente Padilla - @PHI, @ATL
15.Brett Myers - PIT
16.Johnny Cueto - STL, FLA
17.Matt Cain - CHC
18.Tim Hudson - LAD
19.Ricky Nolasco - @WAS
20.Madison Bumgarner - CHC, SD
21.Roy Oswalt - LAD, @NYM
22.Yovani Gallardo - @COL
23.Jair Jurrjens - @HOU
24.Chad Billingsley - @PHI
25.Jamie Garcia - @CIN
26.Ted Lilly - @ATL
27.Jorge De La Rosa - MIL
28.Tommy Hanson - @HOU
29.Wandy Rodriguez - ATL
30.Bronson Arroyo - STL
31.Barry Zito - CHC
32.Dan Hudson - @MIL
33.Bud Norris - ATL, PIT
34.Ian Kennedy - @MIL, @WAS
35.Clayton Richard - @SF
36.Tom Gorzelanny - @SF

Borderline

37.Hiroki Kuroda - @ATL
38.Derek Lowe - LAD
39.Barry Enright - @MIL, @WAS
40.Edinson Volquez - FLA
41.Jake Westbrook - CHC
42.James McDonald - @SD
43.Chris Volstad - @WAS
44.Mike Minor - @HOU, LAD (just not sure what to expect)
45.Joe Blanton - LAD
46.Joe Saunders - @WAS
47.Jon Garland - PIT
48.Jon Niese - COL
49.Jonathan Sanchez - SD
50.Kevin Correia - PIT
51.Livan Hernandez - ARI
52.Randy Wolf - ARI
53.Travis Wood - FLA
54.Wade LeBlanc - PIT, @SF
55.Craig Stammen - FLA
56.Hisanori Takahashi - COL
57.Jason Hammel - @NYM
58.Jeff Francis - @NYM
59.Manny Parra - ARI, @COL
60.Paul Maholm - @HOU
61.Jhoulys Chacin – MIL (tentative)
62.R.A. Dickey - PHI
63.David Bush - ARI
64.Thomas Diamond - @STL
65.Randy Wells - @SF
66.Rodrigo Lopez - @MIL
67.Ross Ohlendorf - @HOU

Extreme Caution Advised

68.Wesley Wright - PIT
69.Zach Duke - @SD
70.Carlos Zambrano - @SF, @STL
71.Chris Narveson - ARI, @COL
72.J.A. Happ - ATL
73.Jason Marquis - ARI
74.Jeffrey Karstens - @SD, @HOU
75.Kyle Kendrick - @NYM
76.Jeff Suppan - CHC
77.Mike Leake - STL
78.Mike Pelfrey - COL, PHI
79.Scott Olsen - FLA
80.Sean West - @CIN

Two-Start Starters:

Mike Minor – unless debut on Monday goes horribly wrong
Anibal Sanchez
Mike Pelfrey – TENTATIVE – may be skipped
Roy Oswalt
Stephen Strasburg – doubt they push him back a day to endanger two-start status. But…
Carlos Zambrano – TENTATIVE – no idea what we'll see on Monday with him
Ryan Dempster
Johnny Cueto – TENTATIVE – assumes Mike Leake is pushed back
Bud Norris
Chris Narveson
Manny Parra
Jeffrey Karstens
Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy
Barry Enright
Ubaldo Jimenez
Vicente Padilla
Wade LeBlanc
Madison Bumgarner
Tim Lincecum

Notes:
Mike Minor makes his big league debut Monday in Houston and should stick around for the rest of the year assuming Kris Medlen's elbow injury is as serious as it sounds. Minor doesn't have the same upside as fellow Braves prospect Julio Teheran, but a 1.89 ERA and 10.1 K/9 in six Triple-A starts says he still has some upside. I'd bid fairly aggressively. … Carlos Silva is dealing with a heart condition in what has been a bit of a renaissance year for him, so hopefully he recovers quickly. Meanwhile, former top prospect Thomas Diamond gets a look, and early returns are good, if you like double-digit strikeout games that is. … Roy Oswalt stated Friday that he is going through a “dead arm” period. That would explain the 4.60 ERA in his last 12 starts. Phillies hope the arm awakens soon. I'm not too worried here just yet. … Esmil Rogers is filling in for the injured Aaron Cook (toe) on Sunday, but my money is on Jhoulys Chacin to get a start in Cook's spot in the coming week. … The Astros this week promoted top pitching prospect Jordan Lyles to Triple-A, and said he could even make his big league debut at some point this year. Nothing unusual there, except for the fact he's just 19. Lyles is a top-five pitching prospect. … James McDonald put on a new uniform and suddenly looked like a viable big league starting pitcher? I saw McDonald pitch this game and as a Dodgers fan, I'm wondering where that changeup came from? He certainly didn't use it much with the Dodgers. (Heads to NL-only league waiver wire to put a bid in on McDonald - $7 sounds about right). … Pretty sure Ross Detwiler finds himself back in the minors this week with Jason Marquis returning from an elbow injury. Hopefully we don't have to advise caution in considering Marquis as a fantasy option. … Mark Pri…err Stephen Strasburg makes his return on Aug. 10 at home versus the Marlins. He's a two-start starter this week, and considering there's no way the Nats roll him out there without complete confidence in his shoulder, go all in this week despite the news he'll be limited to just 90 pitches.. … Sean West's first big league start this year didn't go as planned, and it won't get any easier this week in Cincinnati. Avoid for now. … Mike Leake is scheduled to pitch on Monday, but look for the Reds to take advantage of a Thursday off-day and skip his next turn. He should have his innings limited significantly down the stretch. … Wesley Wright is an interesting NL-only guy based on his impressive first start, but keep in mind his 5.6 K/9 in Triple-A this year. … I'm projecting a Kyle Lohse (forearm) sighting this week. Move on. … Vicente Padilla has a 1.80 ERA in nine starts since his return from the DL in June. With two starts this week, I'm wondering where I'll slot him on the NL list – top 10? … Mike Pelfrey could be skipped this week, so consider the Mets' rotation a fluid situation.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.David Price - @DET, BAL
2.Cliff Lee - BOS
3.Ricky Romero - BOS, @LAA
4.Jon Lester - @NYY, @TEX
5.CC Sabathia - @KC
6.Felix Hernandez - OAK
7.Dan Haren - KC, TOR
8.Scott Baker - @CHW, OAK
9.Matt Garza - @DET
10.Jered Weaver - KC
11.John Danks - MIN
12.Gavin Floyd - MIN
13.Ervin Santana - KC, TOR
14.Justin Verlander - TB
15.Philip Hughes - @TEX, @KC
16.Clay Buchholz - @TOR
17.Zack Greinke - @LAA
18.James Shields - BAL
19.Brett Cecil - BOS
20.Francisco Liriano - @CHW
21.Trevor Cahill - @MIN
22.Jeff Niemann - BAL
23.Edwin Jackson - @BAL, DET
24.Max Scherzer - TB
25.Shaun Marcum - BOS
26.Brandon Morrow - @LAA
27.Josh Beckett - @TEX
28.Kevin Slowey - @CHW
29.Mark Buehrle - DET
30.Brett Anderson - @SEA
31.C.J. Wilson - NYY
32.Colby Lewis - BOS
33.Brian Matusz - CHW, @TB
34.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @TOR, @TEX

Borderline depending on league format

35.Wade Davis - @DET
36.Jeremy Bonderman - @CHW
37.Javier Vazquez - @TEX
38.Fausto Carmona - SEA
39.Jason Vargas - @CLE
40.Jake Arrieta - @CLE, @TB
41.Rich Harden - BOS
42.Carl Pavano - OAK
43.John Lackey - @TOR
44.A.J. Burnett - @KC
45.Justin Masterson - BAL, SEA
46.Freddy Garcia - MIN, DET
47.Jeanmar Gomez - BAL
48.Josh Tomlin - BAL
49.Mitch Talbot - SEA
50.Dallas Braden - @SEA
51.Brian Duensing - OAK
52.Vincent Mazzaro - @SEA, @MIN
53.Gio Gonzalez - @MIN

Extreme caution advised

54.Jeremy Guthrie - @TB
55.Bradley Bergesen - @CLE
56.Armando Galarraga - TB, @CHW
57.Doug Fister - OAK, @CLE
58.Kevin Millwood - @CLE
59.Tommy Hunter - NYY
60.Brad Mills - @LAA
61.Dustin Moseley – BOS, @KC
62.Rick Porcello - @CHW
63.Sean O'Sullivan - @LAA, NYY
64.Kyle Davies - @LAA, NYY
65.Scott Kazmir - TOR
66.Bruce Chen - NYY
67.David Pauley - @CLE
68.Luke French - OAK
69.Brian Bannister - NYY

Two-Start Starters:

Brian Matusz
Jake Arrieta
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Philip Hughes
Dustin Moseley – TENTATIVE – why? Because he's Dustin Moseley.
David Price
Ricky Romero
Edwin Jackson
Freddy Garcia
Justin Masterson
Armando Galarraga – TENTATIVE - perhaps he's skipped to give Max Scherzer two starts…
Kyle Davies
Sean O'Sullivan
Scott Baker
Ervin Santana
Dan Haren – TENTATIVE - assumes Trevor Bell is skipped
Vincent Mazzaro
Doug Fister – TENTATIVE – could skip him and give Felix Hernandez two starts

Notes:
Zach Britton is probably the best of the AL major-league ready prospect in the minors. We'll see him in the big leagues no later than September, and potentially much sooner should Bradley Bergesen pitch like we all know he can. … Andy Pettitte's (groin) rotation spot comes up on Monday, but look for another start by Dustin Moseley as it now sounds like Pettitte will be out at least another couple weeks. We'll give two starts to Moseley this week. … I'm not going anywhere near Scott Kazmir (shoulder) until he proves he's over whatever was causing his 13.73 ERA in four starts before hitting the DL. … Brian Bannister is in danger of having his start skipped this week. Probably best to avoid any non-Greinke Royals pitchers anyway. … Jon Lester is 0-4 with a 4.39 ERA in his last four starts and has road games in New York and Texas this week. You have to use him, but I'd be a bit nervous. It does help calm fears that he did have 30 K's in 26.2 innings in those four starts, however. … Josh Tomlin had an 8.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 460-plus innings as a minor leaguer, so maybe his success so far is somewhat for real. Nothing worth noting outside of AL-only and very deep mixed leagues right now, but a guy worth watching nonetheless. … Rick Porcello – 2010 bust, 2011 post-hype sleeper. Still a lot to like considering he'll pitch all of 2011 as a 22-year-old. … Jason Vargas isn't this good, but he's made real progress in 2010, entering the season with a 1.6 K:BB ratio for his career and as of his last start, sitting at 2.4 this year. … Sean O'Sullivan was a solid return for Alberto Callaspo, but he gets his old team the Angels this week, then the Yankees. Avoid. … Jesse Litsch is likely done for the year with a tear in the hip. Brad Mills, and not Kyle Drabek, will get a chance to replace Litsch, but this could open up the door for Drabek later in August. … Chris Sale this week became the first 2010 draftee to make the big leagues. He'll pitch out of the bullpen for now, but he'll also be a candidate for the 2011 rotation, potentially replacing Freddy Garcia. … Wade Davis was 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA in July. August hasn't been quite as kind, but it's early, and Davis has done enough to hold off Jeremy Hellickson for the time being.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Tim Lincecum - CHC, SD
2.David Price - @DET, BAL
3.Ubaldo Jimenez - @NYM, MIL
4.Josh Johnson - @CIN
5.Cliff Lee - BOS
6.Adam Wainwright - @CIN
7.Ricky Romero - BOS, @LAA
8.Stephen Strasburg - FLA, ARI
9.Chris Carpenter - @CIN, CHC
10.Jon Lester - @NYY, @TEX
11.CC Sabathia - @KC
12.Roy Halladay - @NYM
13.Felix Hernandez - OAK
14.Dan Haren - KC, TOR
15.Ryan Dempster - @SF, @STL
16.Scott Baker - @CHW, OAK
17.Cole Hamels - LAD
18.Matt Garza - @DET
19.Johan Santana - PHI
20.Jered Weaver - KC
21.Clayton Kershaw - @PHI
22.Anibal Sanchez - @WAS, @CIN
23.Mat Latos - @SF
24.Vicente Padilla - @PHI, @ATL
25.Brett Myers - PIT
26.Johnny Cueto - STL, FLA
27.John Danks - MIN
28.Gavin Floyd - MI
29.Matt Cain - CHC
30.Ervin Santana - KC, TOR
31.Tim Hudson - LAD
32.Justin Verlander - TB
33.Philip Hughes - @TEX, @KC
34.Ricky Nolasco - @WAS
35.Madison Bumgarner - CHC, SD
36.Clay Buchholz - @TOR
37.Zack Greinke - @LAA
38.Roy Oswalt - LAD, @NYM
39.James Shields - BAL
40.Yovani Gallardo - @COL
41.Jair Jurrjens - @HOU
42.Brett Cecil - BOS
43.Francisco Liriano - @CHW
44.Trevor Cahill - @MIN
45.Chad Billingsley - @PHI
46.Jamie Garcia - @CIN
47.Jeff Niemann - BAL
48.Ted Lilly - @ATL
49.Edwin Jackson - @BAL, DET
50.Max Scherzer - TB
51.Jorge De La Rosa - MIL
52.Tommy Hanson - @HOU
53.Shaun Marcum - BOS
54.Brandon Morrow - @LAA
55.Josh Beckett - @TEX
56.Wandy Rodriguez - ATL
57.Bronson Arroyo - STL
58.Barry Zito - CHC
59.Kevin Slowey - @CHW
60.Mark Buehrle - DET
61.Dan Hudson - @MIL
62.Bud Norris - ATL, PIT
63.Brett Anderson - @SEA
64.Ian Kennedy - @MIL, @WAS
65.Clayton Richard - @SF
66.C.J. Wilson - NYY
67.Tom Gorzelanny - @SF
68.Colby Lewis - BOS
69.Brian Matusz - CHW, @TB
70.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @TOR, @TEX
71.Hiroki Kuroda - @ATL
72.Derek Lowe - LAD
73.Barry Enright - @MIL, @WAS
74.Edinson Volquez - FLA
75.Jake Westbrook - CHC
76.James McDonald - @SD
77.Chris Volstad - @WAS
78.Mike Minor - @HOU, LAD (just not sure what to expect)
79.Wade Davis - @DET
80.Joe Blanton - LAD
81.Jeremy Bonderman - @CHW
82.Javier Vazquez - @TEX
83.Fausto Carmona - SEA
84.Jason Vargas - @CLE
85.Joe Saunders - @WAS
86.Jake Arrieta - @CLE, @TB
87.Rich Harden - BOS
88.Carl Pavano - OAK
89.John Lackey - @TOR
90.Jon Garland - PIT
91.Jon Niese - COL
92.Jonathan Sanchez - SD
93.A.J. Burnett - @KC
94.Kevin Correia - PIT
95.Livan Hernandez - ARI
96.Randy Wolf - ARI
97.Travis Wood - FLA
98.Justin Masterson - BAL, SEA
99.Freddy Garcia - MIN, DET
100.Jeanmar Gomez - BAL