This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Julio Teheran Profile
Jeremy Hellickson of the Tampa Bay Rays is the top pitcher on my most recent RotoWire Top 100 prospects list. The second pitcher is Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves. You will be hearing a lot about him over the next year, so as the minor league season approaches conclusion, this seems like a good time to profile him.
BACKGROUND
Julio Teheran was the best prospect to come out of Columbia in a long time, earning a $850,000 bonus in 2007, the highest bonus given to any international pitcher that year. He didn't make his pro debut until 2008, but even that was limited to 15 innings by a sore shoulder. He was healthy in '09 but the Braves took it easy with his workload, with 82 innings of work between the Appalachian and South Atlantic Leagues. He was impressive enough to earn praise as the best prospect in the Appy League in Baseball America's assessment of managers, scouts, and coaches opinions. 2010 has been even better, as you will see in the numbers below.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Teheran is a right-handed hitter and thrower, born January 27, 1991. Listed at 6-2, 150, he is probably closer to 6-2, 170, and is a wiry athlete who is still gaining strength and stamina. He has excellent arm speed that generates 93-96 MPH fastballs, and has gained a good 3-5 MPH in pro ball. More velocity is possible as he matures, given that he's just 19 years old
Julio Teheran Profile
Jeremy Hellickson of the Tampa Bay Rays is the top pitcher on my most recent RotoWire Top 100 prospects list. The second pitcher is Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves. You will be hearing a lot about him over the next year, so as the minor league season approaches conclusion, this seems like a good time to profile him.
BACKGROUND
Julio Teheran was the best prospect to come out of Columbia in a long time, earning a $850,000 bonus in 2007, the highest bonus given to any international pitcher that year. He didn't make his pro debut until 2008, but even that was limited to 15 innings by a sore shoulder. He was healthy in '09 but the Braves took it easy with his workload, with 82 innings of work between the Appalachian and South Atlantic Leagues. He was impressive enough to earn praise as the best prospect in the Appy League in Baseball America's assessment of managers, scouts, and coaches opinions. 2010 has been even better, as you will see in the numbers below.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Teheran is a right-handed hitter and thrower, born January 27, 1991. Listed at 6-2, 150, he is probably closer to 6-2, 170, and is a wiry athlete who is still gaining strength and stamina. He has excellent arm speed that generates 93-96 MPH fastballs, and has gained a good 3-5 MPH in pro ball. More velocity is possible as he matures, given that he's just 19 years old right now. His changeup was excellent even as an amateur. His curveball was troublesome early in his career, but he's made strong progress refining the pitch and it is now a very good asset. The fastball/changeup/curve combination gives him three plus major league pitches, an unusually complete arsenal for a pitcher his age. He is considered a "tough customer" on the mound who doesn't bend under pressure. Some scouts worry about Teheran's long-term durability, due to his size and his mechanics, which aren't picture-perfect. But aside from the shoulder problems in '08, he's had no serious physical issues, and has held up under a pro workload this year. His command is sharp for a young power pitcher.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Teheran entered 2010 with a career line of 4.11 ERA, 84:22 K:BB in 96 innings with 96 hits, split between Danville in the Appy League ('08 and '09) and Low-A Rome ('09). That wasn't awful for a pitcher his age, but generally the scouting reports were better than the numbers. This year the statistics have improved to match what scouts see. He started off with a 1.14 ERA in seven starts for Rome, with a 45:10 K:BB ratio in 39 innings, with just 23 hits allowed. Obviously too good for the level, he was promoted Myrtle Beach in the High-A Carolina League. There, he made 10 starts with a 2.98 ERA and a 76:13 K:BB in 63 innings, 56 hits allowed. The K:IP and K:BB ratios were excellent. Although it would have been perfectly acceptable from a developmental standpoint to leave him in High-A due to his age, the Braves were aggressive and moved him up to Double-A Mississippi in late July. He's been very good there: 3.34 ERA, 33:17 K:BB in 35 innings, 24 hits. His command has wobbled a bit in Double-A with an increase in his walk rate, but given his age and the competition, that's hardly unexpected. The fact that he's held his own and is still striking people out at a good clip is a strong sign. He is a fly ball pitcher but hasn't been excessively vulnerable to home runs so far. Teheran's composite line this year: 2.55 ERA, 154:40 K:BB in 138 innings, 103 hits, 2.98 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Overall, there are no holes in his sabermetric profile.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Teheran's combination of three plus pitches, sharp command for his age and excellent statistics makes him a great fantasy investment, as young pitchers go. He has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter, and is with an organization that knows something about pitching. The problem, of course, is that any fantasy investment in young pitching carries considerable risk of injury or unexpected backsliding. The best you can do is load the odds in your favor. With that in mind, Teheran is about as good as it gets.
