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Pitching Value Meter: Down the Stretch They Come

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week Sept. 6-12

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

It's getting tougher and tougher to sit here Friday afternoon/evening and figure out who is going to pitch for each time this far in advance. With guys getting shut down, coming back from injuries, nearing workload limits and more, there are guaranteed to be changes to how this list stacks up for next week. Just be sure to keep an eye on the RotoWire player notes this weekend before you set next week's lineups.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'EM

1.Clayton Kershaw - @SD, @HOU
2.Tim Lincecum - @ARI, @SD
3.Ubaldo Jimenez - CIN, ARI
4.Roy Halladay - @NYM
5.Adam Wainwright - @ATL
6.Tim Hudson - @PIT, STL
7.Roy Oswalt - FLA, @NYM
8.Tommy Hanson - @PIT, STL
9.Johnny Cueto - @COL, PIT
10.Josh Johnson - @WAS
11.Mat Latos - LAD
12.Chris Carpenter - @ATL
13.Wandy Rodriguez - @CHC, LAD
14.Cole Hamels - FLA
15.Chad Billingsley - @SD
16.Anibal Sanchez - @PHI, @WAS
17.Brett Myers - @CHC
18.Ryan Dempster - HOU, @MIL
19.Yovani Gallardo - STL, CHC
20.Matt Cain - @SD
21.Dan Hudson - SF
22.Hiroki Kuroda - @HOU
23.Ted Lilly - @HOU
24.Jordan Zimmerman - NYM, FLA
25.Wade LeBlanc - LAD, SF (very good at home)
26.Jhoulys Chacin - CIN, ARI
27.Joe Blanton - FLA, @NYM
28.Homer Bailey - PIT
29.Jair Jurrjens - STL
30.Jaime Garcia - @MIL
31.Clayton Richard - SF
32.Jorge De La Rosa - ARI
33.Mike Pelfrey - @WAS, PHI
34.Madison Bumgarner - @ARI, @SD
35.Barry Enright - SF
36.Jon Garland - SF
37.R.A. Dickey - @WAS
38.Jonathan Sanchez - @SD
39.Ian Kennedy - SF, @COL
40.Bronson Arroyo - @COL
41.Randy Wells - HOU
42.Mike Minor – STL
43.Carlos Zambrano - @MIL
44.Jon Niese - PHI

Borderline

45.Bud Norris - LAD
46.Jake Westbrook - @MIL, @ATL
47.Livan Hernandez - NYM
48.Randy Wolf - CHC
49.Kevin Correia - LAD, SF
50.Jason Hammel - CIN
51.Alejandro Sanabia - @WAS
52.J.A. Happ - LAD
53.Vicente Padilla - @SD, @HOU
54.John Lannan - FLA
55.Andrew Carpenter - FLA
56.Kyle Lohse - @MIL, @ATL
57.Casey Coleman - @MIL
58.Travis Wood - @COL
59.Jenrry Mejia - PHI
60.David Bush - CHC
61.Joe Saunders - @COL
62.Jeffrey Karstens - ATL, @CIN
63.Paul Maholm - @CIN
64.Barry Zito - @ARI
65.James McDonald - ATL
66.Zach Duke - ATL
67.Kenshin Kawakami - @PIT
68.Rodrigo Lopez - @COL

Extreme Caution Advised

69.Aaron Harang - @COL, PIT
70.Jason Marquis - FLA
71.Pat Misch - @WAS
72.Scott Olsen - NYM
73.Nelson Figueroa - @CHC, LAD
74.Chris Capuano - STL
75.Chris Narveson - STL
76.Aaron Cook - CIN
77.Sean West - @PHI
78.Carlos Silva - HOU
79.Chris Volstad - @PHI
80.Colt Morton - @CIN
81.Andrew Miller - @PHI

Two-start starters:

ATL – Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson
FLA – Anibal Sanchez
NYM – Mike Pelfrey
PHI – Roy Oswalt, Joe Blanton – Blanton tentative, but I think the Phils skip Kyle Kendrick
WAS – Jordan Zimmerman – tentative – may get extra rest due to TJ surgery
CHC – Ryan Dempster
CIN – Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto – Cueto tentative (family issue)
HOU – Wandy Rodriguez, Nelson Figueroa – Figueroa should always be tentative
MIL – Yovani Gallardo
PIT – Jeffrey Karstens – Brad Lincoln could get a start
STL – Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse – Jeff Suppan could get a Lohse start
ARI – Ian Kennedy
COL – Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin
LAD – Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla – assuming Padilla's neck fine for Mon/Tue
SD – Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia
SF – Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner – tentative as Bumgarner could be on IP limit

Notes:
With Chris Volstad getting suspended for throwing at the buffoon that has become Nyjer Morgan, the Florida rotation is in a bit of flux this week. Expect Volstad to appeal, but he may not pitch this week. Andrew Miller and Sean West should also get starts this week due to the Monday doubleheader, but please avoid. … Don't expect Derek Lowe (elbow) to return this week, so look for Kenshin Kawakami to start Tuesday in Pittsburgh. He could be a decent streamer this week. … Doubtful we'll see Johan Santana (strained pectoral) this week, though his prognosis is improving. Look for Pat Misch to start in his place, though Dillon Gee could be another option. … The 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia put up this line in his first and only Triple-A start of the year: 8-5-1-1-1-9. He's an intriguing NL-only play, though command issues could resurface. … Yunesky Maya has a 0.89 ERA in two starts for Triple-A Syracuse. There's a chance we could see him in Washington as early as this week, perhaps in place of Scott Olsen or Jason Marquis. Maya is an unknown, but he's worth a couple bucks in an NL-only league. … Carlos Silva, Thomas Diamond and Jeff Samardzija are all candidates to replace Tom Gorzelanny (finger) in the Cubs rotation. Silva is probably the most likely candidate, but he allowed five runs over 4.2 innings in his last Triple-A appearance, so tread cautiously. … The Reds rotation is in flux this month, as Aaron Harang has returned from a back injury. We do know Mike Leake has been shut down and Edison Volquez will continue his recovery from Tommy John surgery as a reliever, so that would seem to give Homer Bailey and Travis Wood rotation spots for the rest of the year. I remain a huge Bailey fan despite his struggles in his last two outings. … Yovani Gallardo has an 8.42 ERA in his last seven starts, so his swoon can't be solely related to being held up at gunpoint in the clubhouse last week. Time to buy, as he has a 44:16 K:BB in those 36.1 innings, making a turnaround inevitable. … Vicente Padilla seems set to return from a neck injury on Monday, pushing Carlos Monasterios to the bullpen where he belongs anyway. … Mat Latos has surpassed the 150 innings the club had planned for him this year, but he'll still make at least a start a week the rest of the way with the Padres still in the race. The club will use off-days to give him extra rest. Latos would be the obviously NL Rookie of the Year if not for the two-thirds too many innings Latos accumulated last year. … Seven runs in six innings Friday for R.A. Dickey. A blip on the radar or a sign of things to come? I honestly don't know.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Jon Lester - TB, @OAK
2.Edwin Jackson - @DET, KC
3.Francisco Liriano - KC, @CLE
4.Max Scherzer - CHW, BAL
5.Justin Verlander - CHW, BAL
6.Ricky Romero - TEX, TB
7.Shaun Marcum - TEX, TB
8.CC Sabathia - BAL
9.Jered Weaver - SEA
10.Dan Haren - CLE, SEA
11.Felix Hernandez - @LAA
12.David Price - @BOS
13.Clay Buchholz - TB
14.Cliff Lee - @TOR, NYY
15.Brett Anderson - SEA, BOS
16.Zack Greinke - @MIN
17.John Danks - @DET
18.Ervin Santana - SEA
19.James Shields - @TOR
20.Josh Beckett - @OAK
21.Jason Vargas - @OAK, @LAA
22.John Lackey - @OAK
23.Matt Garza - @BOS
24.Philip Hughes - @TEX
25.Wade Davis - @TOR
26.Brett Cecil - TB
27.Mark Buehrle - KC
28.Rick Porcello - CHW
29.Trevor Cahill - BOS
30.Gavin Floyd - @DET
31.Gio Gonzalez - SEA
32.Carl Pavano - KC
33.Colby Lewis - @TOR
34.Jeanmar Gomez - @LAA
35.Daisuke Matsuzaka - TB
36.Ivan Nova - BAL
37.A.J. Burnett - BAL, @TEX
38.Freddy Garcia - @DET, KC
39.Jeff Niemann - @BOS, @TOR
40.Fausto Carmona - MIN

Borderline

41.Josh Tomlin - @LAA
42.Dallas Braden - SEA
43.Doug Fister - @OAK
44.Kevin Slowey - @CLE
45.Derek Holland - @TOR
46.Mitch Talbot - MIN
47.Brian Duensing - KC
48.Vincent Mazzaro - BOS
49.Jeremy Guthrie - @DET
50.Chris Tillman - @DET
51.C.J. Wilson - NYY
52.Carlos Carrasco - @LAA
53.Brian Matusz - @NYY
54.Trevor Bell - CLE
55.Luke French - @OAK
56.Tommy Hunter - NYY
57.Armando Galarraga - BAL
58.Jeremy Bonderman - CHW
59.Scott Kazmir - CLE
60.Nick Blackburn - @CLE

Extreme Caution Advised

61.Justin Masterson – MIN
62.Javier Vazquez - @TEX
63.Kevin Millwood - @DET
64.Bradley Bergesen - @NYY
65.Sean O'Sullivan - @MIN, @CHW
66.Bryan Bullington - @MIN
67.Kyle Davies - @CHW
68.Bruce Chen - @CHW
69.David Pauley - @LAA
70.Scott Richmond - TEX
71.Marc Rzepczynski - TEX
72.Jake Arrieta - @NYY

Two-Start Starters:

BAL – NONE
BOS – Jon Lester
NYY – A.J. Burnett - tentative
TB – Jeff Niemann
TOR – Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum
CHW – Edwin Jackson, Freddy Garcia
CLE – NONE, though Carlos Carrasco is a possibility
DET – Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander
KC – Sean O'Sullivan
MIN – Francisco Liriano
LAA – Dan Haren
OAK – Brett Anderson
SEA – Jason Vargas
TEX – Tommy Hunter, Cliff Lee – Lee tentative considering recent struggles and the injection he received in his sore back

Notes:
Chris Tillman is back in the big leagues and starting on Sunday, Sept. 5. He had a 3.18 ERA in six August starts for Triple-A Norfolk, and my guess is he's here to stay and for a long time. The Orioles will go with a six-man rotation the rest of the way to limit innings on their young arms. … Jeff Niemann could be still dealing with some shoulder soreness considering the whopping 17 runs he's allowed in his last two starts. Fortunately, the Rays have baseball's best “No. 6 starter” in Jeremy Hellickson, so watch this one carefully. … I'm not sure who takes over Brandon Morrow's (shut down – IP limit) rotation spot, but it could be Scott Richmond. Avoid. … Carlos Torres would be the likely choice should the White Sox need a replacement for Freddy Garcia (sore back). Garcia, though, is expected to be OK for this week's action. … Carlos Carrasco's prospect star has dimmed somewhat in the last year or so, but he had a solid year in Triple-A this year with a 133:45 K:BB in 150.1 innings and a strong first big league start at home against Chicago. He's an interesting two-start starter this week. … … Anyone want to give me 10/1 on Max Scherzer throwing a no-hitter by the end of 2011? Scherzer has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last seven starts and has at least eight strikeouts in each of his last three. … Forecasting a six-man rotation for the Indians this week, but I could easily be wrong. … I really, really like the Royals farm system, but they'd better hope at least a couple of their young arms pan out (Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, etc.), as other than Zack Greinke, that is a brutal, brutal rotation. … Scott Baker will miss his next two starts after leaving his last outing with elbow soreness. Kevin Slowey will return from the disabled list (triceps) and start Monday, though Jeff Manship remains a possibility for extra work, as does Matt Fox who is starting on Friday (9/3). … Trevor Bell has pitched well in his last two starts against poor offenses (SEA, BAL), and considering he get another one this week (CLE), he's usable in AL-only formats. … Andy Pettitte (groin) could make a minor league rehab start this coming week and return to the Yankees rotation the week of 9/13. … It was pretty much a given that Doug Fister was due for a major correction after he opened with a 2.03 ERA in his first nine starts. That has happened, but Fister doesn't issue many free passes (1.7 BB/9) and he keeps the ball on the ground pretty well (1.52 GB/FB). He's not horrible despite the 5.1 K/9, but as a non-strikeout pitcher, if he misses, it's batting practice for opposing hitters.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Clayton Kershaw - @SD, @HOU
2.Tim Lincecum - @ARI, @SD
3.Ubaldo Jimenez - CIN, ARI
4.Jon Lester - TB, @OAK
5.Edwin Jackson - @DET, KC
6.Francisco Liriano - KC, @CLE
7.Max Scherzer - CHW, BAL
8.Justin Verlander - CHW, BAL
9.Roy Halladay - @NYM
10.Adam Wainwright - @ATL
11.Tim Hudson - @PIT, STL
12.Roy Oswalt - FLA, @NYM
13.Tommy Hanson - @PIT, STL
14.Ricky Romero - TEX, TB
15.Shaun Marcum - TEX, TB
16.CC Sabathia - BAL
17.Jered Weaver - SEA
18.Dan Haren - CLE, SEA
19.Felix Hernandez - @LAA
20.David Price - @BOS
21.Clay Buchholz - TB
22.Cliff Lee - @TOR, NYY
23.Johnny Cueto - @COL, PIT
24.Brett Anderson - SEA, BOS
25.Zack Greinke - @MIN
26.Josh Johnson - @WAS
27.Mat Latos - LAD
28.Chris Carpenter - @ATL
29.John Danks - @DET
30.Wandy Rodriguez - @CHC, LAD
31.Cole Hamels - FLA
32.Chad Billingsley - @SD
33.Anibal Sanchez - @PHI, @WAS
34.Ervin Santana - SEA
35.Brett Myers - @CHC
36.James Shields - @TOR
37.Ryan Dempster - HOU, @MIL
38.Josh Beckett - @OAK
39.Yovani Gallardo - STL, CHC
40.Matt Cain - @SD
41.Dan Hudson - SF
42.Hiroki Kuroda - @HOU
43.Ted Lilly - @HOU
44.Jordan Zimmerman - NYM, FLA
45.Wade LeBlanc - LAD, SF (very good at home)
46.Jason Vargas - @OAK, @LAA
47.Jhoulys Chacin - CIN, ARI
48.John Lackey - @OAK
49.Matt Garza - @BOS
50.Joe Blanton - FLA, @NYM
51.Philip Hughes - @TEX
52.Wade Davis - @TOR
53.Homer Bailey - PIT
54.Brett Cecil - TB
55.Jair Jurrjens - STL
56.Mark Buehrle - KC
57.Jaime Garcia - @MIL
58.Rick Porcello - CHW
59.Trevor Cahill - BOS
60.Clayton Richard - SF
61.Jorge De La Rosa - ARI
62.Mike Pelfrey - @WAS, PHI
63.Madison Bumgarner - @ARI, @SD
64.Barry Enright - SF
65.Gavin Floyd - @DET
66.Gio Gonzalez - SEA
67.Jon Garland - SF
68.R.A. Dickey - @WAS
69.Jonathan Sanchez - @SD
70.Ian Kennedy - SF, @COL
71.Bronson Arroyo - @COL
72.Carl Pavano - KC
73.Randy Wells - HOU
74.Colby Lewis - @TOR
75.Jeanmar Gomez - @LAA
76.Mike Minor – STL
77.Daisuke Matsuzaka - TB
78.Carlos Zambrano - @MIL
79.Ivan Nova - BAL
80.A.J. Burnett - BAL, @TEX
81.Freddy Garcia - @DET, KC
82.Jon Niese - PHI
83.Jeff Niemann - @BOS, @TOR
84.Bud Norris - LAD
85.Jake Westbrook - @MIL, @ATL
86.Livan Hernandez - NYM
87.Randy Wolf - CHC
88.Fausto Carmona - MIN
89.Kevin Correia - LAD, SF
90.Jason Hammel - CIN
91.Alejandro Sanabia - @WAS
92.J.A. Happ - LAD
93.Josh Tomlin - @LAA
94.Dallas Braden - SEA
95.Doug Fister - @OAK
96.Vicente Padilla - @SD, @HOU
97.Kevin Slowey - @CLE
98.Derek Holland - @TOR
99.John Lannan - FLA
100.Mitch Talbot - MIN