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Pitching Value Meter: Johan's Future ... ?

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.


For the week Sept. 13-19

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

It's getting tougher and tougher to sit here Friday afternoon/evening and figure out who is going to pitch for each time this far in advance. With guys getting shut down, coming back from injuries, nearing workload limits and more, there are guaranteed to be changes to how this list stacks up for next week. Just be sure to keep an eye on the RotoWire player notes this weekend before you set next week's lineups.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Adam Wainwright - CHC, SD
2.Clayton Kershaw - @SF, COL
3.Roy Halladay - @FLA
4.Tim Lincecum - MIL
5.Brett Myers - MIL, CIN
6.Ubaldo Jimenez - @LAD
7.Cole Hamels - @FLA
8.Tommy Hanson - @NYM
9.Roy Oswalt - WAS
10.Jaime Garcia - CHC, SD
11.Bronson Arroyo - ARI, @HOU
12.Dan Hudson - @CIN, @PIT
13.Chris Carpenter - CHC
14.Jorge De La Rosa - SD
15.J.A. Happ - MIL
16.Yovani Gallardo - @SF
17.Jair Jurrjens - WAS
18.Mat Latos - @STL
19.Tim Hudson - @NYM
20.Travis Wood - ARI, @HOU
21.R.A. Dickey - PIT, ATL
22.Chad Billingsley - @SF
23.Anibal Sanchez - CHC
24.Ryan Dempster - @FLA
25.Johnny Cueto - @HOU
26.Barry Enright - @PIT
27.Matt Cain - LAD
28.Hiroki Kuroda - COL
29.Dillon Gee - PIT, ATL
30.Wandy Rodriguez - CIN
31.Jhoulys Chacin - @LAD
32.Ted Lilly - @SF
33.Carlos Zambrano - @STL
34.Jonathan Sanchez LAD

Borderline

35.Derek Lowe - WAS, @NYM
36.Yunesky Maya - @ATL, @PHI
37.James McDonald - @NYM, ARI
38.Jenrry Mejia - PIT
39.Joe Blanton - @FLA, WAS
40.Jonathon Niese - ATL
41.Jordan Zimmerman - @PHI
42.Homer Bailey - ARI
43.Bud Norris - MIL
44.Mike Minor - WAS
45.Cory Luebke - @COL, @STL
46.Ian Kennedy - @PIT
47.Randy Wolf - @SF
48.Jon Garland - @COL, @STL
49.Jake Westbrook - SD
50.Livan Hernandez - @ATL
51.Jason Hammel - SD
52.Madison Bumgarner - MIL
53.Mike Pelfrey - PIT
54.John Lannan - @ATL
55.Casey Coleman - @FLA

Extreme Caution Advised

56.Jeff Francis - SD, @LAD
57.Chris Capuano - @HOU
58.Joe Saunders - @CIN
59.David Bush - @HOU
60.Brian Burres - ARI
61.Paul Maholm - @NYM
62.Zach Duke - @NYM, ARI
63.Kyle Lohse - SD
64.Rodrigo Lopez - @CIN
65.Vicente Padilla - COL
66.Tim Stauffer - @STL
67.Clayton Richard - @COL
68.Barry Zito - LAD, MIL
69.Adalberto Mendez - PHI
70.Chris Volstad - CHC
71.Alejandro Sanabia - PHI
72.Andrew Miller - PHI, CHC
73.Kyle Kendrick - WAS
74.Jason Marquis - @PHI
75.Randy Wells - @STL
76.Carlos Silva - @FLA, @STL
77.Edinson Volquez - ARI
78.Nelson Figueroa - CIN
79.Chris Narveson - @HOU, @SF
80.Colt Morton - @NYM
81.Aaron Cook - CIN

Two-start starters:

ATL Derek Lowe
FLA Adalberto Mendez - if youre thinking who?, then see below.
NYM Dillon Gee, R.A. Dickey
PHI Joe Blanton
WAS Yunesky Maya
CHC Carlos Silva TENTATIVE The old Silva is back.
CIN Bronson Arroyo, Travis Wood
HOU Brett Myers
MIL Chris Narveson
PIT James McDonald, Zach Duke
STL Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia Garcia should be considered tentative for two
ARI Barry Enright, Dan Hudson
COL Jeff Francis
LAD Clayton Kershaw
SD Cory Luebke
SF Barry Zito

Notes:
Pretty stunning news Friday that Johan Santana would be undergoing shoulder surgery that would leave his availability for Opening Day 2011 in doubt. Dillon Gee is the obvious choice to fill in and has some NL-only value. Derek Lowe generated 16 ground ball outs in his last start, so perhaps hes gearing up for a strong finish to a disappointing season. Andrew Miller continues to disappoint. No. 6 overall draft pick was solid against the Braves and awful against Philadelphia. I have no idea what to expect this week, but I would avoid. Dillon Gee would deserve another start just on the basis of his impressive debut (7-2-1-1-3-4) against Washington, but he probably will end up getting shut down after having pitched a total of 168.1 innings this year. Still, a sleeper to watch in 2011. Vance Worley doesnt have overwhelming minor league strikeout rates, but he had a solid debut against Florida and deserves to fill the troublesome No. 5 slot in Philadelphia. For now though its Kyle Kendrick, though that could change quickly depending on how he fares against the Mets on 9/11. Four runs in five innings doesnt constitute a great debut for Yunesky Maya, but his last three innings were hitless. Hes a solid NL-only play. Aaron Harang has allowed 12 hits with six walks in 6.1 innings since returning from the DL. Its time for Edinson Volquez. Harang has been banished to the bullpen. I dont have an explanation for J.A. Happ other than maybe hes better than I gave him credit for. After seven shutout innings against the Braves in his last start, James McDonald has a 4.17 ERA and 40:16 K:BB in 41 innings with the Pirates. Nice work, but hey, the Dodgers have 16 mediocre appearances from Octavio Dotel, who wont be with the team next year. Nice work LA. Jaime Garcia is headed for a 1-2 finish with Jason Heyward for the NL ROY award, but he was shelled last time out against Milwaukee. Wouldnt be a surprise if he was tiring given the 157.1 innings this season versus last years 37.2. Just thinking that if the Dbacks can someone grab a top-of-the-rotation starter (yeah, easy to do, I know) this winter, then their rotation becomes quite interesting with Dan Hudson, the surprising Barry Enright, Ian Kennedy, and Joe Saunders. Dan Haren would look nice there. Jeff Francis returns this week to replace Aaron Cook in the Colorado rotation. Hell be maxed out at 70 pitches Monday, but given his two projected starts are against the Padres and Dodgers, hes worth a play in deeper leagues. I have Tim Stauffer getting another start this week, but the Padres may very well do some rotation shuffling, so watch the player notes this week. Adalberto Mendez allowed just one hit over six scoreless innings to win his major league debut last week. That it came in Philadelphia was all the more impressive. Mendez made his debut at age 28, so we have to figure his upside is somewhat limited, but he did have an impressive 88:41 K:BB in 86 innings in the minors this year, so who knows?

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.CC Sabathia - @TB, @BAL
2.David Price - NYY, LAA
3.Jon Lester - @SEA, TOR
4.Francisco Liriano - OAK, @CHW
5.John Danks - MIN, DET
6.Jered Weaver - @CLE
7.Felix Hernandez - TEX
8.Clay Buchholz - @SEA
9.Edwin Jackson - DET
10.Cliff Lee - @SEA
11.Gio Gonzalez - @KC, MIN
12.Max Scherzer - @CHW
13.Justin Verlander - @CHW
14.Zack Greinke - OAK
15.Brett Anderson - @MIN
16.Trevor Cahill - @KC
17.Josh Beckett - TOR
18.Dan Haren - @TB
19.Philip Hughes - @TB
20.Colby Lewis - DET
21.Jeremy Hellickson - LAA
22.Brett Cecil - @BAL
23.Matt Garza - NYY
24.Shaun Marcum - @BOS
25.John Lackey - TOR
26.Gavin Floyd - MIN
27.Rick Porcello - @CHW
28.Carl Pavano - @CHW
29.C.J. Wilson - @SEA
30.James Shields - NYY
31.Wade Davis - LAA
32.Ricky Romero - @BOS
33.Ervin Santana - @TB
34.Mark Buehrle - MIN

Borderline

35.Brian Matusz - TOR
36.A.J. Burnett - @BAL
37.Fausto Carmona - LAA
38.Javier Vazquez - @BAL
39.Mitch Talbot - @KC
40.Carlos Carrasco - @KC
41.Andy Pettitte - @TB
42.Derek Holland - DET
43.Jeanmar Gomez - @KC
44.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @SEA
45.Jason Vargas - TEX
46.Josh Tomlin - LAA
47.Dallas Braden - @MIN
48.Luke Hochevar - OAK, CLE
49.Kevin Slowey - OAK
50.Tommy Hunter - @SEA
51.Brian Duensing - @CHW
52.Jake Arrieta - TOR

Extreme Caution Advised

53.Armando Galarraga - @TEX
54.Jeremy Bonderman - @TEX
55.Bradley Bergesen - TOR
56.Chris Tillman - NYY
57.Kyle Davies - CLE
58.Nick Blackburn - OAK
59.Joel Pineiro - @TB
60.Jeremy Guthrie - NYY
61.Trevor Bell - @CLE
62.Doug Fister - TEX, BOS
63.Scott Kazmir - @CLE
64.Kevin Millwood - NYY
65.Shawn Hill - @BAL
66.Marc Rzepczynski - @BAL, @BOS
67.Freddy Garcia - DET
68.Justin Masterson - LAA
69.Brian Bannister - CLE
70.Bruce Chen - OAK
71.David Pauley - BOS
72.Luke French - BOS
73.TBD As starter - @KC

Two-start starters:

BAL NONE assuming a six-man rotation
BOS Jon Lester
NYY C.C. Sabathia
TB David Price
TOR Marc Rzepczynski two starts unless start #1 bombs
CHW John Danks
CLE NONE though rotation is rather unsettled
DET Jeremy Bonderman
KC Luke Hochevar - tentative
MIN Francisco Liriano
LAA NONE assumes Joel Pineiro returns this week
OAK Gio Gonzalez
SEA Doug Fister
TEX Probably NONE two off-days this week for Texas

Notes:
As I write this, Jeremy Hellickson has not replaced Jeff Niemann in the Rays rotation, but doesnt he have to? Niemann has allowed 23 runs in 10 innings (20.70 ERA) over his last three starts, and Hellickson may already be the Rays second best starter. Im going out on a limb (not really) and swapping the two this week. Projecting the Orioles to go with a six-man rotation this week. This will help limit the workload of Brian Matusz in particular. Daisuke Matsuzaka hasnt exactly pitched well lately (eight runs last time out), but we havent had reports of any injury. Im pretty sure Andy Pettitte (groin) showed enough in his last rehab start to return to the Yankees this week. If not, Ivan Nova would get another start. Freddy Garcias last two starts have been cut short, but the team is hoping an epidural in his back will have him good to go this week. Im not so sure. I have Justin Masterson in a six-man Indians rotation this week, but we could get an announcement any minute that hes shifting to the bullpen to limit his workload. Luke Hochevar is a solid investment in AL-only leagues this week with projected starts against two subpar offenses at home versus Oakland and Cleveland. Scott Baker will miss at least his start this week with a sore elbow. His status for the week of 9/20 is up in the air. I had Joel Pineiro returning from his oblique injury this week, to replace Trevor Bell in the rotation, but Bell will get on more start because Pineiro isnt ready. Another rehab start for Pineiro on Sunday, so Im slotting him for a return next weekend. I dont have a clue who will function as the As fifth starter this week. It might even be Boof Bonser if you can believe that. Cliff Lee (back) is set to return Saturday or Sunday against the Yankees. Hes likely to get the Mariners this upcoming week and should be started in every format regardless of the sore back and rising ERA. Nice start by Carlos Zambrano on Friday, though Id be a bit wary using him in 12-team mixed leagues this week against St. Louis.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Adam Wainwright - CHC, SD
2.CC Sabathia - @TB, @BAL
3.David Price - NYY, LAA
4.Clayton Kershaw - @SF, COL
5.Roy Halladay - @FLA
6.Jon Lester - @SEA, TOR
7.Francisco Liriano - OAK, @CHW
8.John Danks - MIN, DET
9.Tim Lincecum - MIL
10.Jered Weaver - @CLE
11.Felix Hernandez - TEX
12.Brett Myers - MIL, CIN
13.Clay Buchholz - @SEA
14.Ubaldo Jimenez - @LAD
15.Edwin Jackson - DET
16.Cole Hamels - @FLA
17.Cliff Lee - @SEA
18.Tommy Hanson - @NYM
19.Roy Oswalt - WAS
20.Jaime Garcia - CHC, SD
21.Bronson Arroyo - ARI, @HOU
22.Dan Hudson - @CIN, @PIT
23.Chris Carpenter - CHC
24.Jorge De La Rosa - SD
25.J.A. Happ - MIL
26.Yovani Gallardo - @SF
27.Jair Jurrjens - WAS
28.Mat Latos - @STL
29.Tim Hudson - @NYM
30.Travis Wood - ARI, @HOU
31.R.A. Dickey - PIT, ATL
32.Chad Billingsley - @SF
33.Anibal Sanchez - CHC
34.Ryan Dempster - @FLA
35.Johnny Cueto - @HOU
36.Gio Gonzalez - @KC, MIN
37.Max Scherzer - @CHW
38.Justin Verlander - @CHW
39.Zack Greinke - OAK
40.Barry Enright - @PIT
41.Matt Cain - LAD
42.Brett Anderson - @MIN
43.Trevor Cahill - @KC
44.Hiroki Kuroda - COL
45.Dillon Gee - PIT, ATL
46.Josh Beckett - TOR
47.Dan Haren - @TB
48.Philip Hughes - @TB
49.Colby Lewis - DET
50.Jeremy Hellickson - LAA
51.Brett Cecil - @BAL
52.Wandy Rodriguez - CIN
53.Matt Garza - NYY
54.Shaun Marcum - @BOS
55.John Lackey - TOR
56.Jhoulys Chacin - @LAD
57.Gavin Floyd - MIN
58.Rick Porcello - @CHW
59.Ted Lilly - @SF
60.Carl Pavano - @CHW
61.Carlos Zambrano - @STL
62.C.J. Wilson - @SEA
63.Jonathan Sanchez LAD
64.James Shields - NYY
65.Wade Davis - LAA
66.Derek Lowe - WAS, @NYM
67.Ricky Romero - @BOS
68.Yunesky Maya - @ATL, @PHI
69.James McDonald - @NYM, ARI
70.Jenrry Mejia - PIT
71.Joe Blanton - @FLA, WAS
72.Ervin Santana - @TB
73.Jonathon Niese - ATL
74.Jordan Zimmerman - @PHI
75.Homer Bailey - ARI
76.Mark Buehrle - MIN
77.Bud Norris - MIL
78.Mike Minor - WAS
79.Cory Luebke - @COL, @STL
80.Ian Kennedy - @PIT
81.Randy Wolf - @SF
82.Jon Garland - @COL, @STL
83.Jake Westbrook - SD
84.Livan Hernandez - @ATL
85.Jason Hammel - SD
86.Madison Bumgarner - MIL
87.Brian Matusz - TOR
88.A.J. Burnett - @BAL
89.Fausto Carmona - LAA
90.Javier Vazquez - @BAL
91.Mitch Talbot - @KC
92.Mike Pelfrey - PIT
93.Carlos Carrasco - @KC
94.Andy Pettitte - @TB
95.Derek Holland - DET
96.Jeanmar Gomez - @KC
97.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @SEA
98.John Lannan - @ATL
99.Jason Vargas - TEX
100.Josh Tomlin - LAA