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Pitching Value Meter: Weaver's the One

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week Sept. 20-26

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

It's getting tougher and tougher to sit here Friday afternoon/evening and figure out who is going to pitch for each time this far in advance. With guys getting shut down, coming back from injuries, nearing workload limits and more, there are guaranteed to be changes to how this list stacks up for next week. Just be sure to keep an eye on the RotoWire player notes this weekend before you set next week's lineups.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Roy Halladay - ATL, NYM
2.Cole Hamels - ATL, NYM
3.Chris Carpenter - @FLA, @CHC
4.Adam Wainwright - @CHC
5.Chad Billingsley - SD, @ARI
6.Matt Cain - @CHC, @COL
7.Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
8.Mat Latos - @LAD
9.Tim Lincecum - @COL
10.Ubaldo Jimenez - @ARI
11.J.A. Happ - @WAS, @PIT
12.Roy Oswalt - ATL
13.Jonathan Sanchez - @CHC
14.Jake Westbrook - @PIT, @CHC
15.Jorge De La Rosa - @ARI, SF
16.Homer Bailey - @MIL, @SD
17.Dan Hudson - LAD
18.Bronson Arroyo - @SD
19.Tim Hudson - @WAS
20.Yovani Gallardo - FLA
21.Clayton Richard - @LAD, CIN
22.Brett Myers - @PIT
23.Tommy Hanson - @PHI
24.Wandy Rodriguez - @WAS
25.Edinson Volquez - @MIL
26.Carlos Zambrano - SF
27.James McDonald - HOU
28.Madison Bumgarner - @CHC
29.Mike Pelfrey - @FLA
30.R.A. Dickey - @FLA
31.Ryan Dempster - SF
32.Johnny Cueto - @MIL
33.Anibal Sanchez - @MIL
34.Jair Jurrjens - @PHI, @WAS
35.Hiroki Kuroda - SD
36.Jaime Garcia - @PIT
37.Barry Enright - LAD
38.Joe Saunders - COL, LAD
39.Travis Wood - @SD
40.Ian Kennedy - COL
41.Jhoulys Chacin - SF

Borderline

42.Chris Capuano - CIN, FLA
43.Livan Hernandez - HOU, ATL
44.Bud Norris - @WAS, @PIT
45.Tim Stauffer - @LAD
46.Randy Wells - SF
47.Alex Sanabia - NYM
48.Dillon Gee - @PHI
49.Joe Blanton - NYM
50.Derek Lowe - @WAS
51.Jon Garland - CIN
52.John Lannan - HOU
53.Jordan Zimmerman - ATL
54.Randy Wolf - CIN
55.Ted Lilly - SD
56.Jonathon Niese - @PHI
57.Jason Hammel - SF
58.Yunesky Maya - ATL
59.Chris Young - CIN
60.Tom Gorzelanny - STL
61.Adalberto Mendez - NYM, @MIL
62.Kyle Lohse - @PIT
63.Brian Burres - STL
64.Rodrigo Lopez - COL

Extreme Caution Advised

65.Jeff Francis - @ARI
66.David Bush - CIN
67.John Ely - @ARI
68.Mike Minor - @PHI
69.Chris Volstad - STL, @MIL
70.Barry Zito - @COL
71.Ross Detwiler - HOU
72.Casey Coleman - STL
73.Jeff Samardzija - STL
74.Nelson Figueroa - @WAS
75.Mark Rogers - FLA
76.Paul Maholm - STL, HOU
77.Jason Marquis - HOU
78.Chris Narveson - FLA
79.Andrew Miller - @MIL
80.Colt Morton - STL
81.Zach Duke - HOU
82.Oliver Perez/TBA - @PHI

Two-Start Starters:

ATL – Jair Jurrjens
FLA – Adalberto Mendez, Chris Volstad
NYM – NONE – two off-days
PHI – Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels – TENTATIVE – Halladay could get just one unless Kyle Kendrick is skipped
WAS – Livan Hernandez
CHC – NONE – projecting a six-man rotation
CIN – Homer Bailey
HOU – Bud Norris, J.A. Happ
MIL – Chris Capuano
PIT – Paul Maholm
STL – Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook
ARI – Joe Saunders
COL – Jorge De La Rosa
LAD – Chad Billingsley
SD – Clayton Richard
SF – Matt Cain

Notes:
Chris Carpenter’s hamstring won’t prevent him from going this week, and as a two-start starter, you have to roll with him. He has had two poor starts (11 ER), but don’t use him and he’ll probably pitch lights-out on your bench. … The Dodgers have given up, but a 12:0 K:BB from Jonathan Sanchez on Thursday was well, pretty good. He’s probably the Giants’ No. 2 starter right now. … Jake Westbrook has a 3.26 ERA for the Cardinals after eight shutout innings against San Diego. He’s quietly been a huge deadline acquisition. … Charlie Morton would have to compete for a Cy Young before I trust him. So no, I don’t buy the back-to-back decent starts. … With a 17:3 K:BB in 13.2 innings in his last two starts, it looks like Edinson Volquez has “figured things out”. Don’t be afraid to go all-in, as he’s throwing easily in the mid-90s. … John Ely fared well, tossing a QS in Houston in his first start since an ugly ending in LA and a poor showing in Triple-A. He’s obviously a risk. … Things are so bad in Queens that we could have an Oliver Perez-as-a-starter sighting this week. I just don’t know who the fifth guy is going to be there. I do know that the Mets have no problem with Dillon Gee accumulating close to 200 innings this year after 48.1 (torn labrum) last year. That’s real smart. … The Cubs appear to be going with a six-man rotation that includes both Casey Coleman and Jeff Samardzija. The latter tossed 5.2 scoreless in St. Louis last time out, but that came with a 1:4 K:BB. … We could see teen-ager Jordan Lyles start this week, perhaps in the Washington series in place of Nelson Figueroa. The Astros, though, may sober up and realize they need to shut him down. … Chris Young has totaled 36 starts the last three seasons, but he’s back, facing the Cardinals in St. Louis this weekend (9/18). Grab him in NL-only leagues. … Consider Jaime Garcia tentative this week, as the Cardinals aren’t 100 percent on shutting him down just yet. Seems like a good idea to do so, however. … Mike Minor was 3-0, 3.91 in his first four starts, but just 0-1, 9.00 in three starts in September. Not liking him so much in Philly this week. … Former first-round flame-out Mark Rogers is in line to get a start at home against the Marlins this week. Rogers has some upside remaining, but a 114:72 K:BB in 116 minor league innings is concerning. … Ned Colletti’s first trade as a GM was stealing Andre Ethier from the A’s for Milton Bradley. Since then, he’s done things like deal Edwin Jackson for Lance Carter and Danys Baez, Carlos Santana for Casey Blake (ownership partially to blame here), and more recently, James McDonald, Andrew Lambo, and Blake DeWitt (all controllable for several more years) for two months of Ted Lilly, a below average 2B in Ryan Theriot and Octavio Dotel. Just incredible. McDonald incidentally has allowed zero earned runs over his last two starts (15 innings) while Lilly has a 7.97 ERA in his last four. Sorry, rant over.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'EM

1.Jered Weaver - TEX, CHW
2.CC Sabathia - TB
3.Felix Hernandez - @TOR
4.Cliff Lee - @OAK
5.David Price - @NYY
6.Edwin Jackson - @OAK
7.Jon Lester - @NYY
8.Fausto Carmona - @MIN, KC
9.Clay Buchholz - BAL
10.Trevor Cahill - CHW, TEX
11.Max Scherzer - KC
12.Zack Greinke - @DET, @CLE
13.Francisco Liriano - @DET
14.Brian Duensing - CLE, @DET
15.Colby Lewis - @LAA, @OAK
16.Justin Verlander - MIN
17.Brett Anderson - CHW
18.Gio Gonzalez - CHW, TEX
19.Dan Haren - TEX
20.James Shields - @NYY, SEA
21.Derek Holland - @LAA, @OAK
22.Carl Pavano - CLE
23.Ricky Romero - BAL
24.Josh Beckett - @NYY
25.Matt Garza - @NYY, SEA
26.Shaun Marcum - BAL
27.John Danks - @LAA
28.Jeremy Guthrie - @TOR
29.Brett Cecil - BAL
30.Rick Porcello - KC, MIN
31.C.J. Wilson - @LAA
32.Philip Hughes - TB, BOS
33.Ervin Santana - TEX
34.Andy Pettitte - BOS
35.John Lackey - BAL
36.Gavin Floyd - @OAK, @LAA
37.Nick Blackburn - CLE

Borderline

38.David Pauley - @TOR
39.Tommy Hunter - @OAK
40.Josh Tomlin - KC
41.Scott Kazmir - CHW
42.Wade Davis - @NYY
43.Bobby Cramer - TEX
44.Mark Buehrle - @OAK
45.Chris Tillman - @TOR
46.Jeanmar Gomez - @MIN, KC
47.Ivan Nova - TB, BOS
48.Carlos Carrasco - @MIN
49.Armando Galarraga - KC
50.Bradley Bergesen - @BOS
51.Kevin Slowey - @DET
52.Jeremy Bonderman - MIN
53.Jake Arrieta - @BOS
54.A.J. Burnett - TB
55.Brian Matusz - @BOS
56.Jason Vargas - @TB
57.Kyle Drabek - SEA

Extreme Caution Advised


58.Daisuke Matsuzaka - BAL, @NYY
59.Dallas Braden - TEX
60.Sean O'Sulllivan - @CLE
61.Luke French - @TOR, @TB
62.Bruce Chen - @DET, @CLE
63.Joel Pineiro - CHW
64.Kevin Millwood - @TOR
65.Jeff Niemann - SEA
66.Marc Rzepczynski - SEA
67.Doug Fister - @TB
68.Lucas Harrell - @LAA
69.Mitch Talbot - KC
70.Luke Hochevar - @CLE
71.Kyle Davies - @DET
72.Shawn Hill - SEA

Two-Start Starters:

BAL – NONE – assuming a six-man rotation
BOS – Daisuke Matsuzaka
NYY – Ivan Nova, Philip Hughes
TB – Matt Garza, James Shields
TOR – NONE – assuming a six-man rotation
CHW – Gavin Floyd
CLE – Jeanmar Gomez, Fausto Carmona
DET – Rick Porcello – TENTATIVE – check status of finger
KC – Zack Greinke, Bruce Chen
MIN – Brian Duensing
LAA – Jered Weaver
OAK – Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill – TENTATIVE – one or both pushed back for IP limits?
SEA – Luke French
TEX – Derek Holland, Colby Lewis

Notes:
Shocking stat of the week: Brian Duensing has a 2.07 ERA in 113 innings. … White Sox GM Kenny Williams announced Friday that 2010 No. 13 overall pick and lights-out reliever Chris Sale will be given an opportunity to win a rotation spot next spring. A lot hinges on the health of Jake Peavy (back), but the White Sox apparently consider Sale a long-term starter. Good idea. … Still looking at a six-man rotation in Baltimore. Chris Tillman has a 20:22 K:BB, but I still like him as a solid No. 3 in the future. … Daisuke Matsuzaka hasn’t allowed fewer than four runs in any of his last six starts. He’s a shaky two-start guy this week, particularly considering the Sox travel to Yankee Stadium over the weekend. … Andy Pettitte (groin) makes his return this week, likely bumping Javier Vazquez (not Ivan Nova) to the bullpen. Just a guess, but thinking Vazquez will be wearing a new uniform next year. … Maybe part of the reason for my poor fantasy performance this year is in not giving up on guys quickly enough. For instance, I’m still somewhat optimistic that Luke Hochevar could break out one of these years. That optimism however stems solely from the fact that like David Price, Hochever was a No. 1 overall draft pick. Maybe instead I should focus on how much he’s stunk as a major leaguer. You decide. … Classic quote from Ozzie Guillen this week, saying he’ll have to “talk to his vodka” in deciding between Carlos Torres and Lucas Harrell to sub for Freddy Garcia (back). Hopefully the vodka is more Grey Goose than Popov. … Kevin Slowey could be a guy to target. He’s looked pretty solid (2.00 ERA in two starts) since returning from a triceps injury. … Thirty-year-old rookie Bobby Cramer won his first big league start and should pitch again this week as long as he doesn’t get shelled in Minnesota on Sunday (9/19). Of course, Cramer’s only start came against the Royals, so don’t get too excited here. … Cliff Lee isn’t going to win the AL Cy Young award, but a two-hitter over eight innings against the Yankees should alleviate fears about his back. … Back-to-back quality starts for David Pauley, who is looking like the Jason Vargas of the second half. Roll with him in AL-only formats. … Derek Holland has a 44:18 K:BB in 43.2 innings. His upside remains quite high. … Brett Anderson is looking more and more like the next Mark Mulder. That is, a Cy Young caliber guy who will force the A’s to deal him in three years because he’s too expensive. Let’s just hope Anderson’s career ends on more of a high note than Mulder’s did.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Roy Halladay - ATL, NYM
2.Jered Weaver - TEX, CHW
3.Cole Hamels - ATL, NYM
4.Chris Carpenter - @FLA, @CHC
5.CC Sabathia - TB
6.Adam Wainwright - @CHC
7.Felix Hernandez - @TOR
8.Chad Billingsley - SD, @ARI
9.Matt Cain - @CHC, @COL
10.Cliff Lee - @OAK
11.Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
12.Mat Latos - @LAD
13.David Price - @NYY
14.Tim Lincecum - @COL
15.Ubaldo Jimenez - @ARI
16.J.A. Happ - @WAS, @PIT
17.Roy Oswalt - ATL
18.Edwin Jackson - @OAK
19.Jon Lester - @NYY
20.Jonathan Sanchez - @CHC
21.Fausto Carmona - @MIN, KC
22.Clay Buchholz - BAL
23.Trevor Cahill - CHW, TEX
24.Max Scherzer - KC
25.Zack Greinke - @DET, @CLE
26.Jake Westbrook - @PIT, @CHC
27.Francisco Liriano - @DET
28.Brian Duensing - CLE, @DET
29.Jorge De La Rosa - @ARI, SF
30.Colby Lewis - @LAA, @OAK
31.Homer Bailey - @MIL, @SD
32.Dan Hudson - LAD
33.Bronson Arroyo - @SD
34.Tim Hudson - @WAS
35.Justin Verlander - MIN
36.Yovani Gallardo - FLA
37.Brett Anderson - CHW
38.Gio Gonzalez - CHW, TEX
39.Clayton Richard - @LAD, CIN
40.Dan Haren - TEX
41.Brett Myers - @PIT
42.James Shields - @NYY, SEA
43.Tommy Hanson - @PHI
44.Wandy Rodriguez - @WAS
45.Derek Holland - @LAA, @OAK
46.Edinson Volquez - @MIL
47.Carlos Zambrano - SF
48.James McDonald - HOU
49.Madison Bumgarner - @CHC
50.Mike Pelfrey - @FLA
51.R.A. Dickey - @FLA
52.Ryan Dempster - SF
53.Carl Pavano - CLE
54.Johnny Cueto - @MIL
55.Anibal Sanchez - @MIL
56.Jair Jurrjens - @PHI, @WAS
57.Hiroki Kuroda - SD
58.Ricky Romero - BAL
59.Jaime Garcia - @PIT
60.Josh Beckett - @NYY
61.Barry Enright - LAD
62.Matt Garza - @NYY, SEA
63.Shaun Marcum - BAL
64.John Danks - @LAA
65.Joe Saunders - COL, LAD
66.Travis Wood - @SD
67.Jeremy Guthrie - @TOR
68.Brett Cecil - BAL
69.Rick Porcello - KC, MIN
70.C.J. Wilson - @LAA
71.Philip Hughes - TB, BOS
72.Ervin Santana - TEX
73.Ian Kennedy - COL
74.Andy Pettitte - BOS
75.John Lackey - BAL
76.Gavin Floyd - @OAK, @LAA
77.Chris Capuano - CIN, FLA
78.Nick Blackburn - CLE
79.Livan Hernandez - HOU, ATL
80.Bud Norris - @WAS, @PIT
81.Tim Stauffer - @LAD
82.Randy Wells - SF
83.Alex Sanabia - NYM
84.Dillon Gee - @PHI
85.David Pauley - @TOR
86.Joe Blanton - NYM
87.Tommy Hunter - @OAK
88.Josh Tomlin - KC
89.Scott Kazmir - CHW
90.Wade Davis - @NYY
91.Derek Lowe - @WAS
92.Bobby Cramer - TEX
93.Jon Garland - CIN
94.Mark Buehrle - @OAK
95.John Lannan - HOU
96.Jordan Zimmerman - ATL
97.Randy Wolf - CIN
98.Ted Lilly - SD
99.Jonathon Niese - @PHI
100.Chris Tillman - @TOR