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Pitching Value Meter: This is It: The 2010 Finale

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week Sept. 27 - Oct. 3

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

This is it, the last edition of the 2010 Pitching Value Meter. Hopefully at least one of you who’s not on my payroll or related to me enjoyed this piece from time-to-time this year. For this week's rankings, take them in context. Several teams are going to be setting up their rotations for the playoffs, so there will be changes to the below. Still others will be shutting pitchers down early due to IP limits. For the latest, make sure you keep an eye on the RotoWire player notes.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Roy Halladay - @WAS, @ATL
2.Roy Oswalt - @WAS, @ATL
3.Adam Wainwright - PIT
4.Jonathan Sanchez - ARI, SD
5.Carlos Zambrano - @SD, @HOU
6.Tim Lincecum - ARI
7.Ubaldo Jimenez - LAD, @STL
8.Clayton Kershaw - @COL
9.Tim Hudson - FLA
10.Mat Latos - CHC, @SF (will he get that second start?)
11.Dan Hudson - @LAD
12.Cole Hamels - @ATL
13.Wandy Rodriguez - @CIN, CHC
14.Brett Myers - @CIN
15.Chris Carpenter - COL
16.Yovani Gallardo - @NYM
17.Matt Cain - SD
18.Chad Billingsley - ARI
19.Jorge De La Rosa - @STL
20.Madison Bumgarner - ARI
21.Randy Wolf - @NYM, @CIN
22.Mike Pelfrey - MIL, WAS
23.R.A. Dickey - MIL
24.Tim Stauffer - CHC, @SF
25.Ian Kennedy - @SF
26.Edinson Volquez - HOU, MIL
27.Clayton Richard - @SF
28.Bronson Arroyo - HOU
29.Tommy Hanson - FLA
30.J.A. Happ - CHC
31.Ted Lilly - @COL, ARI
32.Jhoulys Chacin - LAD
33.Chris Volstad - PIT
34.James McDonald - @STL
35.Hiroki Kuroda - @COL
36.Jonathon Niese - MIL, WAS
37.Barry Enright - @SF
38.Dillon Gee - MIL
39.Chris Young - CHC
40.Randy Wells - @SD, @HOU

Borderline

41.Rodrigo Lopez - @SF, @LAD
42.John Lannan - PHI, @NYM
43.Joe Blanton - @WAS
44.Homer Bailey - MIL
45.Travis Wood - MIL
46.Bud Norris - CHC
47.Chris Narveson - @CIN
48.Jon Garland - CHC
49.Anibal Sanchez - @ATL, PIT
50.Johnny Cueto - HOU
51.Casey Coleman - @HOU
52.Joe Saunders - @LAD
53.Barry Zito - SD
54.Derek Lowe - PHI
55.Brandon Beachy - FLA, PHI
56.Adalberto Mendez - PIT
57.Ryan Dempster - @SD (that last start was U-G-L-Y)
58.Alex Sanabia - @ATL, PIT
59.Yunesky Maya - @NYM

Extreme Caution Advised

60.Jair Jurrjens – PHI (tentative – knee)
61.Jordan Zimmerman - @NYM
62.Tom Gorzelanny - @SD
63.Nelson Figueroa - @CIN
64.Ross Detwiler - PHI
65.David Bush - @NYM, @CIN
66.John Ely - ARI
67.Mark Rogers - @NYM
68.Paul Maholm - @FLA
69.Jake Westbrook - COL
70.Jason Hammel - @STL
71.Pat Misch - WAS
72.Brian Burres - @STL, @FLA
73.Scott Olsen - PHI
74.Zach Duke - @FLA
75.Andrew Miller - @ATL
76.Colt Morton - @STL, @FLA
77.Kyle Lohse - PIT, COL
78.Jeff Francis - LAD, @STL
79.Jeff Suppan - PIT, COL

Two-Start Starters:

ATL – Tommy Hanson – very tentative
FLA – Adalberto Mendez, Alejandro Sanabia
NYM – Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese – Niese especially tentative
PHI – Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt – Halladay a lock, Oswalt assumes Kyle Kendrick skipped
WAS – John Lannan
CHC – Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells – both tentative, especially Wells
CIN – Edinson Volquez
HOU – Wandy Rodriguez
MIL – Randy Wolf, David Bush
PIT – Brian Burres, Colt Morton – two starts NOT a good thing for this pair
STL – Kyle Lohse, Jeff Suppan
ARI – Joe Saunders
COL – Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeff Francis
LAD – Ted Lilly
SD – Tim Stauffer, Mat Latos – If the division is on the line, Latos probably gets two, but consider him tentative
SF – Jonathan Sanchez

Notes:
One Friday headline on ESPN.com read, “McCourts in mediation over Dodgers ownership.” If only Judge Wapner was the presiding judge in the case. He’d certainly do the right thing and force these tools to sell the team. … After pitching like he was wanting to make a run at hardware other than just the NL ROY award, Mat Latos has now allowed 16 runs in his last 10.1 innings. At the very least, expect his next start to be pushed back. … Carlos Silva won’t likely return this year from a tender elbow. The disappointment is palpable. … Anibal Sanchez has made a remarkable and rare recovery from a torn labrum, but he’s clearly shot for this year. Three of his last four starts have been clunkers. … You couldn’t have asked for much more from Madison Bumgarner this year – 3.06 ERA and a 79:25 K:BB in 106 innings. He may never be the strikeout pitcher we thought he could be after his first full pro season, but all the concerns around his velocity last year and this spring are now moot. … Ross Detwiler was a former No. 6 overall pick, and while that was a clear overdraft in hindsight, at least he’s finally looking like a legitimate big league starter. It is a bit curious that he’s fanned just one batter in his last 10 innings, however. … With a 20-10 record, Roy Halladay has as many decisions as walks (also 30) this year. He has to be a shoo-in for the NL Cy Young with Adam Wainwright a solid choice for runner-up. … I’m going to be very bullish on Jorge De La Rosa again next year. In four September starts, the lefty has a 26:4 K:BB in 26.1 innings. … I don’t like a lot of what the Astros have done the last few years (barren farm system, three years for Brandon Lyon, etc.), but giving Brett Myers a reasonable three-year extension was a solid move. Myers is a rock for a young and emerging rotation that will be even better once Jordan Lyles settles in next year. … Jonathan Sanchez is probably the Giants’ second-best starter right now, so kudos to them for resisting the urge to deal him for a bat this year. Sanchez has allowed just three runs over his last 32.2 innings. … Kyle Lohse is making eight figures and has an ERA over 7.00. The Cardinals have to just hope rest does enough to bring him back to the point where he can be a tolerable innings eater. Exhibit One of many why $40 million multi-year deals for No. 4/5 starters are rarely a wise investment. … Carlos Zambrano has a 1.42 ERA in 57 innings since rejoining the rotation following his well-publicized bout with anger issues. He might be sliding into 2011 sleeper status. … Bud Norris is 3-0 with 20 K’s in 20 IP over his last three starts. A hard thrower, he should be on your radar next year. … Jaime Garcia has been officially shut down after an impressive rookie season in which the southpaw posted a 2.70 ERA over 28 starts. He’ll finish somewhere in the top three, along with Jason Heyward and Mat Latos, for the NL Rookie of the Year award.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Felix Hernandez - @TEX, OAK
2.David Price - BAL, @KC
3.Max Scherzer - @CLE, @BAL
4.Cliff Lee - SEA, LAA
5.Brett Anderson - @LAA, @SEA
6.Clay Buchholz - @CHW, NYY
7.Dan Haren - OAK, @TEX
8.C.J. Wilson - SEA, LAA
9.Jon Lester - @CHW
10.Ervin Santana - OAK, @TEX
11.Justin Verlander - @CLE
12.Francisco Liriano - @KC
13.Edwin Jackson - BOS, CLE
14.CC Sabathia - @TOR
15.Jered Weaver - @TEX
16.Matt Garza - @KC
17.Trevor Cahill - @SEA
18.Wade Davis - BAL, @KC
19.Zack Greinke - TB
20.John Lackey - @CHW, NYY
21.Josh Beckett - @CHW
22.Gavin Floyd - CLE
23.Dallas Braden - @LAA, @SEA
24.James Shields - @KC
25.Shaun Marcum - @MIN
26.John Danks - BOS
27.Ricky Romero - @MIN
28.Fausto Carmona - @CHW
29.Andy Pettitte - @BOS
30.Nick Blackburn - @KC, TOR
31.Carlos Carrasco - DET, @CHW
32.Gio Gonzalez - @SEA
33.Carl Pavano - TOR
34.Colby Lewis – SEA
35.Scott Baker - @KC, TOR
36.Tommy Hunter - SEA
37.Derek Holland - LAA

Borderline

38.A.J. Burnett - @TOR, @BOS
39.Brian Matusz - @TB, DET
40.Philip Hughes - @TOR
41.Joel Pineiro - OAK
42.Bradley Bergesen - @TB, DET
43.Brett Cecil - NYY
44.Daisuke Matsuzaka - NYY
45.David Pauley - @TEX, OAK
46.Mark Buehrle - BOS, CLE
47.Scott Kazmir - @TEX
48.Jeremy Bonderman - @BAL
49.Kevin Slowey - TOR
50.Rick Porcello - @BAL
51.Bobby Cramer - @LAA
52.Doug Fister - OAK
53.Jeremy Guthrie - DET
54.Armando Galarraga - @CLE, @BAL
55.Jeff Niemann - BAL

Extreme Caution Advised

56.Marc Rzepczynski - NYY, @MIN
57.Josh Tomlin - DET
58.Chris Tillman - DET
59.Ivan Nova - @BOS
60.Luke French - OAK
61.Kevin Millwood - @TB
62.Kyle Drabek - NYY, @MIN
63.Lucas Harrell - BOS
64.Jason Vargas - @TEX
65.Mitch Talbot - DET
66.Jeanmar Gomez - @CHW
67.Sean O'Sulllivan - MIN, TB
68.Luke Hochevar - MIN
69.Kyle Davies - MIN, TB
70.Bruce Chen - TB

Two-Start Starters:

BAL – Brian Matusz, Bradley Bergesen – Do they really use Matusz twice?
BOS – John Lackey, Clay Buchholz
NYY – A.J. BurnettCC Sabathia also a candidate for two, but that is unlikely
TB – David Price, Wade Davis – Price could be skipped to set up playoff rotation
TOR – Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek – Drabek the most tentative of the two
CHW – Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson
CLE – Carlos Carrasco
DET – Armando Galarraga, Max Scherzer – just one for Scherzer to protect arm?
KC – Sean O’Sullivan, Kyle Davies
MIN – Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker – very tentative as Twins set up playoff rotation
LAA – Dan Haren, Ervin Santana
OAK – Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden
SEA – Felix Hernandez, David Pauley – King shut down after one of these starts?
TEX – Cliff Lee, C.J. Wilson – very tentative as Rangers are in the playoffs

Notes: The Rangers have apparently not closed the book on Neftali Feliz as a starting pitcher. Good idea; 180-200 innings of Feliz > 60-75 innings. … David Price’s win over CC Sabathia may have tilted the Cy Young race in the former’s favor. Both are deserving, but Felix Hernandez has been the AL’s best pitcher this year. … Interesting player note on Felix Hernandez this week: He’s set to become just the 12th AL pitcher since 1920 to pitch more than 200 innings with a 2.40 ERA or less and 16 or fewer wins. Wonder how many wins he’d have as a Yankee? …Off topic, but is Jose Bautista the AL MVP? Sure, the .265 BA won’t wow voters, but his 1.005 OPS ranks third behind Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera. … Jon Lester faces the Yankees and White Sox on the road in his final two starts in a bid to win 20 games. He’s 18-8. … Your AL strikeout leader for September? It’s Max Scherzer with 39. He’s going to go justifiably very high in next spring’s drafts. … Kyle Drabek’s first two big league starts haven’t gone well, and this week he gets the Yankees and possibly the Twins if he’s not shut down after that first start. I still like his long-term prospects, but he’ll have to win a rotation job next spring to avoid a stint in Triple-A. … I’m not convinced Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot aren’t the same person. … Toronto’s Shawn Hill has a 13:3 K:BB in 16 innings this year. He’s unlikely to win a rotation spot next year however given his past injuries, but when healthy, he has flashed some occasional skill. … I need to get better at this whole pitching analysis thing, though maybe I shouldn’t beat myself up for not predicting C.J. Wilson’s 3.15 ERA. … Scott Kazmir has been somewhat better lately, but he still has just a 31:27 K:BB in 49.1 innings since the All-Star break. Is he a 2011 sleeper or have we already seen his best? Maybe a little of both. … A tailspin has Cliff Lee deservedly out of Cy Young consideration, but that doesn’t make a 177:18 K:BB any less impressive. … Yes, he’s just 21 still and, yes, he was rushed, but Rick Porcello has still been a big disappointment – 5.22 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.6 K/9. Still, the talent is there for a Trevor Cahill-like leap in 2011, so I’ll be a buyer. He’s not a lock to make a start this week. … Jason Vargas predictably has struggled in the second half (4.70 ERA), but his Strat card will still be solid next year. I just wouldn’t rely on him from a 2011 fantasy perspective. … The Angels should be fine next year. With Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana, they have arguably a top-five 1-2-3 top-of-the-rotation headed into 2011. With Kendry Morales returning, they should be fine with some minor re-tooling.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Roy Halladay - @WAS, @ATL
2.Felix Hernandez - @TEX, OAK
3.David Price - BAL, @KC
4.Roy Oswalt - @WAS, @ATL
5.Max Scherzer - @CLE, @BAL
6.Cliff Lee - SEA, LAA
7.Brett Anderson - @LAA, @SEA
8.Clay Buchholz - @CHW, NYY
9.Dan Haren - OAK, @TEX
10.Adam Wainwright - PIT
11.C.J. Wilson - SEA, LAA
12.Jonathan Sanchez - ARI, SD
13.Jon Lester - @CHW
14.Carlos Zambrano - @SD, @HOU
15.Tim Lincecum - ARI
16.Ubaldo Jimenez - LAD, @STL
17.Ervin Santana - OAK, @TEX
18.Justin Verlander - @CLE
19.Francisco Liriano - @KC
20.Edwin Jackson - BOS, CLE
21.CC Sabathia - @TOR
22.Clayton Kershaw - @COL
23.Jered Weaver - @TEX
24.Tim Hudson - FLA
25.Mat Latos - CHC, @SF (will he get that second start?)
26.Dan Hudson - @LAD
27.Cole Hamels - @ATL
28.Wandy Rodriguez - @CIN, CHC
29.Matt Garza - @KC
30.Brett Myers - @CIN
31.Chris Carpenter - COL
32.Trevor Cahill - @SEA
33.Yovani Gallardo - @NYM
34.Matt Cain - SD
35.Chad Billingsley - ARI
36.Jorge De La Rosa - @STL
37.Madison Bumgarner - ARI
38.Wade Davis - BAL, @KC
39.Zack Greinke - TB
40.Randy Wolf - @NYM, @CIN
41.Mike Pelfrey - MIL, WAS
42.R.A. Dickey - MIL
43.Tim Stauffer - CHC, @SF
44.John Lackey - @CHW, NYY
45.Ian Kennedy - @SF
46.Josh Beckett - @CHW
47.Gavin Floyd - CLE
48.Edinson Volquez - HOU, MIL
49.Dallas Braden - @LAA, @SEA
50.Clayton Richard - @SF
51.James Shields - @KC
52.Bronson Arroyo - HOU
53.Shaun Marcum - @MIN
54.Tommy Hanson - FLA
55.John Danks - BOS
56.J.A. Happ - CHC
57.Ted Lilly - @COL, ARI
58.Jhoulys Chacin - LAD
59.Ricky Romero - @MIN
60.Chris Volstad - PIT
61.James McDonald - @STL
62.Hiroki Kuroda - @COL
63.Fausto Carmona - @CHW
64.Jonathon Niese - MIL, WAS
65.Andy Pettitte - @BOS
66.Nick Blackburn - @KC, TOR
67.Carlos Carrasco - DET, @CHW
68.Gio Gonzalez - @SEA
69.Carl Pavano - TOR
70.Barry Enright - @SF
71.Colby Lewis – SEA
72.Dillon Gee - MIL
73.Scott Baker - @KC, TOR
74.Chris Young - CHC
75.Randy Wells - @SD, @HOU
76.Tommy Hunter - SEA
77.Derek Holland - LAA
78.Rodrigo Lopez - @SF, @LAD
79.A.J. Burnett - @TOR, @BOS
80.Brian Matusz - @TB, DET
81.John Lannan - PHI, @NYM
82.Joe Blanton - @WAS
83.Homer Bailey - MIL
84.Philip Hughes - @TOR
85.Joel Pineiro - OAK
86.Travis Wood - MIL
87.Bud Norris - CHC
88.Chris Narveson - @CIN
89.Bradley Bergesen - @TB, DET
90.Jon Garland - CHC
91.Brett Cecil - NYY
92.Anibal Sanchez - @ATL, PIT
93.Daisuke Matsuzaka - NYY
94.David Pauley - @TEX, OAK
95.Mark Buehrle - BOS, CLE
96.Johnny Cueto - HOU
97.Casey Coleman - @HOU
98.Joe Saunders - @LAD
99.Scott Kazmir - @TEX
100.Barry Zito - SD