This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Report on Derek Holland
BACKGROUND
Derek Holland was drafted by the Rangers in the 25th round in 2006, out of Wallace State Community College in Alabama. He didn't sign until May of 2007, one of the last of the "draft-and-follow" picks, as that procedure was eliminated for 2008. He had a reasonably good pro debut in the Northwest League, but this year he has been unstoppable, emerging as one of the key components in a revived Rangers farm system, and one of the best southpaw prospects in the game. He is still a bit under the radar nationally, but that will change as soon as the post-season prospect press gets ramped up.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Holland is a 6-2, 185 pound switch-hitter who throws left-handed. At the beginning of this season, he was throwing 90-92 MPH in the Midwest League, but as the campaign has progressed his velocity has increased, throwing 94-96 MPH consistently, hitting 97-98 at times, and holding his velocity late into games. His slider and changeup are somewhat erratic, but both have the potential to be consistently plus pitches as he gains experience. Both have flashes of excellence now, just not all the time. Holland's feel for pitching is unusually good for a young power pitcher, and his composure and mound presence are also strong assets. He has shown no problems adjusting to competition as he moves up. His basic need is for more experience to put the finishing touches on his secondary offerings.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Holland's pro career began with a 3.22 mark and an 83:21 K:BB ratio in 67 innings for Spokane in the Northwest League in 2007, with 57 hits allowed, showing strong component ratios across the board. The only negative last year was a 0.64 GO:AO ratio, possibly indicating gopher ball problems at higher levels. This has NOT been a problem: his GO:AO ratio in 2008 was 1.20, almost double the ground ball tendency of last year. He began the season going 7-0, 2.40 with a 91:29 K:BB in 94 innings at Low-A Clinton. Promoted to Bakersfield in the Cal League, he went 3-1, 3.19 with a 37:5 K:BB in 31 innings and just 20 hits allowed. Promoted to Frisco in the Texas League, he kept up the momentum with a 3-0, 0.69 mark in four starts, with a 29:6 K:BB in 26 innings and just 14 hits allowed. His component ratios actually improved as he moved up this year, getting better at each level. Note that this was concurrent with the increase in his velocity. Usually pitchers tire as the season progresses, but Holland seemed to get stronger. Overall he went 13-1, 2.27 with a 157:40 K:BB in 150.2 innings, 111 hits allowed, and just three homers given up all season. There were no flaws in the statistics that I can see.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Holland's stunning rise this summer doesn't look like a fluke to me, as long as he remains healthy. That's a big if for any young pitcher, of course, but his efficiency should help him stay away from injuries, in theory anyway. He could begin 2009 as high as the Triple-A level, and should be a candidate to help out the Rangers staff sometime next year. If you are willing to invest in a risky demographic like young pitching, take a close look at Holland.
Article first appeared 9/10/08
