This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Report on Scott Sizemore
The Tigers have named rookie Scott Sizemore as their starting second baseman for 2010. He hasn't received a huge amount of attention, and indeed I didn't include him in my most recent Top 100 list, although he should have at least been put in the Honorable Mention section. As with my previous profile subject David Freese, Sizemore is definitely a rookie to watch closely and could outperform more-heralded talents. Let's take a look.
BACKGROUND
Scott Sizemore was a successful player at Virginia Commonwealth University, earning a spot in the fifth round of the 2006 draft. Assigned to Oneonta in the New York-Penn League after signing, he adapted well to pro ball with a .327/.394/.435 mark in his pro debut, very fine performance in a pitching-oriented circuit. In '07 he moved up to West Michigan in the Low-A Midwest League (another difficult environment for hitters), producing .265/.376/.390 numbers. This wasn't great performance, but he did draw 73 walks against just 60 strikeouts in 438 at-bats, demonstrating a polished approach at the plate.
Promoted to High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League for '08, Sizemore hit .286/.365/.409 (in another pitcher's league), but was limited to just 53 games by a broken wrist. He continued to impress scouts with his work ethic and attitude, and his plate discipline remained sound. Sizemore began '09 with Double-A Erie in the Eastern League, hitting .307/.402/.535 in 59 games, showing greatly improved power. Moved up to Triple-A Toledo for the second half,
Report on Scott Sizemore
The Tigers have named rookie Scott Sizemore as their starting second baseman for 2010. He hasn't received a huge amount of attention, and indeed I didn't include him in my most recent Top 100 list, although he should have at least been put in the Honorable Mention section. As with my previous profile subject David Freese, Sizemore is definitely a rookie to watch closely and could outperform more-heralded talents. Let's take a look.
BACKGROUND
Scott Sizemore was a successful player at Virginia Commonwealth University, earning a spot in the fifth round of the 2006 draft. Assigned to Oneonta in the New York-Penn League after signing, he adapted well to pro ball with a .327/.394/.435 mark in his pro debut, very fine performance in a pitching-oriented circuit. In '07 he moved up to West Michigan in the Low-A Midwest League (another difficult environment for hitters), producing .265/.376/.390 numbers. This wasn't great performance, but he did draw 73 walks against just 60 strikeouts in 438 at-bats, demonstrating a polished approach at the plate.
Promoted to High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League for '08, Sizemore hit .286/.365/.409 (in another pitcher's league), but was limited to just 53 games by a broken wrist. He continued to impress scouts with his work ethic and attitude, and his plate discipline remained sound. Sizemore began '09 with Double-A Erie in the Eastern League, hitting .307/.402/.535 in 59 games, showing greatly improved power. Moved up to Triple-A Toledo for the second half, he remained hot with a .308/.378/.473 mark. Although he broke an ankle in the Arizona Fall League, he entered '10 as the favorite to earn the second base job in spring camp.
Sizemore has hit just .213 in 19 spring training games, but has done a terrific job controlling the zone with 10 walks against 11 strikeouts in 47 at-bats. He's solidified his hold on the job and will be in the lineup on Opening Day.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Sizemore is a 6-0, 185 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born January 4, 1985. He is a decent athlete with average tools, but plays with an intense attitude and makes the most out of his physical attributes, a "grinder" and a "baseball rat" in scout parlance. Offensively, he has average bat speed, but his swing is compact, simple, and repeatable. He has good plate discipline judgment and seldom gets himself out by chasing junk or garbage pitches outside the zone. Although he has just average running speed, he gets good jumps and is aggressive on the paths, stealing 21 bases in 25 attempts last year between Double-A and Triple-A.
Scouts give his defense adequate-but-not-excellent marks. His range and arm strength are sufficient for the position, and he has gradually improved his hands and quickness. He won't win any Gold Gloves, but he shouldn't be a defensive liability, either. He's shown some vulnerability to injuries, though he seems to heal quickly and well, at least from broken bones.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Sizemore was a career .296/.383/.441 hitter in the minor leagues, including a combined .308/.389/.500 last year in the high minors. He showed considerably more power last year, dramatically increasing his isolated power production without slippage in plate discipline. Getting away from the power-sapping parks of the New York-Penn, Midwest, and Florida State Leagues seemed to agree with him, though at the major league level he's not likely to slug .500. I think Sizemore projects as a .260-.280 hitter in the short run, with plenty of doubles, an occasional home run, and 10-15 steals a year. He could exceed that in his peak seasons once he gets some experience.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Sizemore doesn't have the tools to be a star player, but his polish at the plate, workmanlike approach, and ability to handle second base adequately promise that he should have a solid career. For 2010, he might have a few growing pains, but in the medium and long runs he should be a very useful player. Don't invest in him expecting another Chase Utley, but even without that he has a decent chance to outplay rookies who've received more attention. Upside numbers would be something like .285/.370 OBP, with 12 homers and 15 steals.
Article first appeared 3/30/10
