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Pitching Value Meter: In Full Control

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.


For the week April 18-24

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Roy Halladay - MIL, @SD
2. Cliff Lee - MIL, @SD
3. Josh Johnson - PIT, COL
4. Tim Lincecum - @COL, ATL
5. Tim Hudson - @LAD, @SF
6. Shaun Marcum - @PHI, HOU
7. Clayton Kershaw - ATL
8. Ubaldo Jimenez - SF, @FLA
9. Travis Wood - ARI, @STL
10. Cole Hamels - @SD
11. Jorge De La Rosa - SF
12. Yovani Gallardo - HOU
13. Hiroki Kuroda - ATL, @CHC
14. Matt Cain - @COL
15. Roy Oswalt - MIL
16. Ricky Nolasco - PIT
17. Chris Carpenter - CIN
18. Matt Garza - SD
19. Dan Hudson - @CIN
20. Ryan Dempster - LAD
21. Brett Myers - @MIL
22. Bronson Arroyo - ARI
23. Chad Billingsley - @CHC
24. Derek Lowe - @LAD
25. Kevin Correia - @CIN, WAS
26. Aaron Harang - @CHC
27. Chris Young - ARI
28. Jaime Garcia - WAS
29. Edinson Volquez - ARI
30. Jhoulys Chacin - @FLA
31. Tommy Hanson - @SF
32. Joe Blanton - @SD
33. Jonathan Sanchez - @COL
34. Jordan Zimmerman - @STL
35. Kyle Lohse - WAS

Borderline Depending on League Format

36. Mat Latos - PHI
37. Ted Lilly - ATL, @CHC
38. Carlos Zambrano - SD, LAD
39. Randy Wolf - @PHI, HOU
40. Wandy Rodriguez - @NYM, @MIL
41. Brandon Beachy - @LAD, @SF
42. Anibal Sanchez - COL
43. Barry Enright - @NYM
44. Clayton Richard - PHI
45. Chris Capuano - HOU
46. Dustin Moseley - @CHC, PHI
47. Esmil Rogers - SF
48. J.A. Happ - @NYM
49. Colt Morton - @FLA
50. Jason Hammel - @FLA
51. Kyle McClellan - CIN
52. Tim Stauffer - @CHC, PHI
53. Jair Jurrjens - @LAD
54. Jonathon Niese - HOU, ARI
55. Mike Leake - @STL
56. Bud Norris - @NYM
57. Chris Narveson - @PHI
58. Jason Marquis - @PIT
59. Jake Westbrook - WAS, CIN
60. James McDonald - @FLA
61. Paul Maholm - @FLA, WAS
62. John Lannan - @STL, @PIT
63. Livan Hernandez - @PIT
64. Madison Bumgarner - ATL

Extreme Caution Advised

65. Ian Kennedy - @CIN, @NYM
66. R.A. Dickey - HOU
67. Sam LeCure - @STL
68. Jon Garland - ATL
69. Armando Galarraga - @NYM
70. Barry Zito - ATL
71. Casey Coleman - LAD
72. Chris Volstad - COL
73. Javier Vazquez - PIT
74. Jeff Karstens - WAS
75. Jeff Samardzija - SD
76. Joe Saunders - @CIN
77. Mike Pelfrey - ARI
78. Nelson Figueroa - @MIL
79. Tom Gorzelanny - @STL
80. Barry Zito - @ARI

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Marco Estrada

Two-start starters:
Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Josh Johnson, Jonathon Niese, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, John Lannan, Carlos Zambrano, Sam LeCure, Travis Wood, Wandy Rodriguez, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Jake Westbrook, Ian Kennedy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Tim Lincecum

Notes:
The Pirates are going to go with Jeffrey Karstens in place of Ross Ohlendorf (shoulder) only because Brad Lincoln is still building up stamina after being hit in the forearm by a batted ball this spring. Lincoln could replace Karstens later this week. ... Don't sleep on Bud Norris off his 5.06 ERA. His 20:6 K:BB in 16 innings is pretty impressive. ... Cliff Lee entered Thursday's start with a 7.84 ERA, so naturally he put up this line: 9-3-0-0-1-12. He's now 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA and Lee-like 26:2 K:BB in 19.1 innings. ... Mike Minor put up a 6-6-2-1-0-9 line in his Tuesday Triple-A start while Brandon Beachy has struggled in his last two outings. Beachy gets the Dodgers on Tuesday so that will help, but his leash is getting shorter. ... Jordan Zimmerman has a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, and those aren't flukish numbers. He looks like a solid future No. 2 starter to that other guy's No. 1. ... The Rockies have recalled some guy I'm less than familiar with, Alan Johnson, to make a spot start this Sunday (4/17). Yes, a pitcher coming off a 5.91 ERA season in Triple-A is a guy to pass on. ... Josh Johnson has added a curveball to his repertoire this year, throwing it so far 4.4 percent of the time at the expense of his slider. Yeah. that's really a guy who needs another pitch. ... That didn't take long. Congratulations if you took the under on April 30 for Chris Young's first reported injury. Young is dealing with biceps tendinitis. Young is off to a nice start (1.46 ERA in two starts), but some things never change. ... Obvious corrections alert award goes to Charlie Morton with a 2.08 ERA and 3:10 K:BB. Yes, 10 walks. Oh, and because baseball is so predictable, here's a late edit to this section: Weird baseball game of the day: Morton almost shutting out the Reds. Morton's K:BB sits at 6:12 after the game, so it's hard to say this is real progress. Regardless, it at least makes him an NL-only FAAB play this week. ... Not surprisingly for a post-TJ survivor, Edinson Volquez is struggling with his command. Should he get that turned around, look out, as he also carries a 9.5 K/9 and 1.8 G/F. ... Javier Vazquez must be pitching his left hand. He's not even hitting 90 mph these days. ... Clayton Kershaw's 3.0 BB/9 after the break last year looks to be a real step forward in refining his control. Kershaw's mark this year through three starts: 1.8. ... Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have combined for a 48:5 K:BB. Not bad. Does the defense even pay attention when these guys are on a roll? ...

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. David Price - CHW, @TOR
2. Brett Anderson - BOS, @SEA
3. Jered Weaver - @TEX
4. Jon Lester - @LAA
5. Edwin Jackson - @TB, @DET
6. Colby Lewis - LAA, KC
7. CC Sabathia - @BAL
8. Felix Hernandez - OAK
9. Justin Verlander - CHW
10. Ricky Romero - @BOS, TB
11. John Danks - @TB, @DET
12. Max Scherzer - @SEA, CHW
13. Dan Haren - BOS
14. Trevor Cahill - @SEA
15. Michael Pineda - OAK
16. Ervin Santana - @TEX, BOS
17. Alexi Ogando - KC
18. C.J. Wilson - LAA
19. Carl Pavano - @BAL, CLE
20. Josh Beckett - @LAA
21. Derek Holland - KC
22. Jeremy Hellickson - @TOR
23. Carlos Carrasco - @KC, @MIN
24. Jeremy Guthrie - MIN
25. Matt Harrison - LAA
26. Justin Masterson - @KC
27. Gavin Floyd - @TB
28. Clay Buchholz - @OAK
29. Zach Britton - MIN
30. A.J. Burnett - @TOR
31. Brandon Morrow - TB
32. Mark Buehrle - @DET
33. Francisco Liriano - @BAL, CLE
34. Fausto Carmona - @KC, @MIN

Borderline Depending on League Format

35. John Lackey - @OAK, @LAA
36. James Shields - CHW, @TOR
37. Wade Davis - CHW
38. Kyle Drabek - NYY
39. Gio Gonzalez - BOS
40. Josh Tomlin - @KC
41. Mitch Talbot - @MIN
42. Nick Blackburn - @BAL
43. Jake Arrieta - MIN, NYY
44. Brian Duensing - @CLE
45. Bruce Chen - CLE, @TEX
46. Scott Baker - @BAL
47. Dallas Braden - @SEA
48. Jason Vargas - DET, OAK
49. Doug Fister - DET, OAK
50. Phil Coke - @SEA
51. Freddy Garcia - @BAL
52. Jeff Niemann - CHW

Extreme caution Advised

53. Chris Tillman - MIN, NYY
54. Luke Hochevar - CLE
55. Brett Cecil - NYY
56. Ivan Nova - @BAL
57. Jesse Litsch - TB
58. Jeff Francis - @TEX
59. Brandon McCarthy - @SEA
60. Erik Bedard - DET
61. Bradley Bergesen - NYY
62. Rick Porcello - @SEA
63. Tyler Chatwood - BOS
64. Bartolo Colon - @TOR (tentative)
65. Phil Humber - @TB
66. Brad Penny - CHW
67. Kyle Davies - CLE, @TEX
68. Sean O'Sullivan - CLE
69. Matt Palmer - @TEX, BOS
70. Daisuke Matsuzaka - TOR, @LAA

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
None

Two-start starters:
Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey, David Price, James Shields, Ricky Romero, Edwin Jackson, John Danks, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco, Max Scherzer, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Ervin Santana, Matt Palmer, Brett Anderson, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, C.J. Wilson

Notes: Chris Tillman
's recent performances are pretty disappointing. It's almost to the point where the Orioles may actually go with Ryan Drese if Tillman struggles Monday. Tillman's struggles seem to be cementing Zach Britton's spot in the rotation once Brian Matusz (intercostal strain) returns later this month. ... I invested in Phil Hughes in a couple leagues, so no, I'm not pleased about his 13.94 ERA. Unless you're in a league that doesn't count ERA and WHIP, he's obviously too risky to use. I wonder if Manny Banuelos gets the call soon? Both Banuelos and Dellin Betances are dealing with blisters right now. Hughes was placed on the DL with a phantom "dead arm" injury. This could mean we see the guy who stole one of Johan Santana's Cy Young awards, Bartolo Colon. ... Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the start Monday, something sure to incite a clubhouse brawl in Toronto over who gets to be in the Blue Jays' lineup that day. ... Alexi Ogando is the only AL starter (Chris Narveson in the NL) who has not allowed a run while making two or more starts. At this point it's hard to see the Rangers returning him to the bullpen, especially considering Texas' bullpen has seemed to survive (2.76 ERA) without him. ... Gio Gonzalez has walked 12 batters in 19 innings yet still has a 0.47 ERA. Ironing out his command a bit will go a long ways in offsetting the coming ERA correction. ... With just a 5.4 K/9 last year, I figured Trevor Cahill would take a small step back, but this year he's got that rate up to 9.4 after three starts. Enjoy him while you can A's fans. ... No pitcher in baseball is throwing harder than Michael Pineda (95.5 mph avg FB). Mix in excellent command and you have your early AL ROY front-runner. ... Speaking of velocity, Derek Holland's fastball is up 1.4 mph (93.5) over last year. Maybe he fades a bit there over the course of the season, but all signs point to a solid season from the southpaw. ... Matt Harrison's success is a surprise he's 3-0 and has already beaten the Red Sox and Yankees. He won't keep this up, but the Rangers arms continue to drink the Nolan Ryan Kool-Aid. ... Pretty much zero of my starting pitchers I drafted in my Scoresheet league are doing anything. Ivan Nova's ERA sits at 7.36, Rick Porcello has been brutal, and even Felix Hernandez has been less than his dominant self. Boy do the Yankees miss Cliff Lee at all? ... I still like Justin Masterson more than any other Indians starter, and after Friday's solid outing, Masterson's ERA sits at a sparkling 1.33. .. Major League players get paternity leave? Seriously though, congratulations to Colby Lewis. He's expected to make two starts in the coming week.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Roy Halladay - MIL, @SD
2.Cliff Lee - MIL, @SD
3.Josh Johnson - PIT, COL
4.Tim Lincecum - @COL, ATL
5.David Price - CHW, @TOR
6.Brett Anderson - BOS, @SEA
7.Tim Hudson - @LAD, @SF
8.Shaun Marcum - @PHI, HOU
9.Clayton Kershaw - ATL
10.Jon Lester - @LAA
11.Jered Weaver - @TEX
12.Ubaldo Jimenez - SF, @FLA
13.Edwin Jackson - @TB, @DET
14.Colby Lewis - LAA, KC
15.CC Sabathia - @BAL
16.Felix Hernandez - OAK
17.Justin Verlander - CHW
18.Travis Wood - ARI, @STL
19.Ricky Romero - @BOS, TB
20.John Danks - @TB, @DET
21.Max Scherzer - @SEA, CHW
22.Cole Hamels - @SD
23.Dan Haren - BOS
24.Trevor Cahill - @SEA
25.Jorge De La Rosa - SF
26.Yovani Gallardo - HOU
27.Hiroki Kuroda - ATL, @CHC
28.Michael Pineda - OAK
29.Matt Cain - @COL
30.Roy Oswalt - MIL
31.Ricky Nolasco - PIT
32.Chris Carpenter - CIN
33.Ervin Santana - @TEX, BOS
34.Alexi Ogando - KC
35.C.J. Wilson - LAA
36.Carl Pavano - @BAL, CLE
37.Josh Beckett - @LAA
38.Matt Garza - SD
39.Dan Hudson - @CIN
40.Ryan Dempster - LAD
41.Brett Myers - @MIL
42.Bronson Arroyo - ARI
43.Chad Billingsley - @CHC
44.Derek Lowe - @LAD
45.Kevin Correia - @CIN, WAS
46.Aaron Harang - @CHC
47.Derek Holland - KC
48.Chris Young - ARI
49.Jaime Garcia - WAS
50.Edinson Volquez - ARI
51.Jhoulys Chacin - @FLA
52.Jeremy Hellickson - @TOR
53.Tommy Hanson - @SF
54.Carlos Carrasco - @KC, @MIN
55.Joe Blanton - @SD
56.Jeremy Guthrie - MIN
57.Matt Harrison - LAA
58.Justin Masterson - @KC
59.Gavin Floyd - @TB
60.Clay Buchholz - @OAK
61.Jonathan Sanchez - @COL
62.Jordan Zimmerman - @STL
63.Zach Britton - MIN
64.A.J. Burnett - @TOR
65.Brandon Morrow - TB
66.Mark Buehrle - @DET
67.Francisco Liriano - @BAL, CLE
68.Fausto Carmona - @KC, @MIN
69.Kyle Lohse - WAS
70.Mat Latos - PHI
71.Ted Lilly - ATL, @CHC
72.Carlos Zambrano - SD, LAD
73.Randy Wolf - @PHI, HOU
74.Wandy Rodriguez - @NYM, @MIL
75.John Lackey - @OAK, @LAA
76.James Shields - CHW, @TOR
77.Wade Davis - CHW
78.Kyle Drabek - NYY
79.Brandon Beachy - @LAD, @SF
80.Anibal Sanchez - COL
81.Barry Enright - @NYM
82.Clayton Richard - PHI
83.Gio Gonzalez - BOS
84.Chris Capuano - HOU
85.Dustin Moseley - @CHC, PHI
86.Esmil Rogers - SF
87.Josh Tomlin - @KC
88.J.A. Happ - @NYM
89.Mitch Talbot - @MIN
90.Nick Blackburn - @BAL
91.Jake Arrieta - MIN, NYY
92.Colt Morton - @FLA
93.Brian Duensing - @CLE
94.Bruce Chen - CLE, @TEX
95.Jason Hammel - @FLA
96.Scott Baker - @BAL
97.Dallas Braden - @SEA
98.Jason Vargas - DET, OAK
99.Doug Fister - DET, OAK
100.Phil Coke - @SEA


Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.