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Pitching Value Meter: Cy Young Campaign

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

(Very deep) Sleeper of the week: Jeff Karstens, PIT

Use in NL-only leagues please. Karstens somehow has his ERA less than 3.00. Karsten's control remains solid with a 1.7 BB/9. His GB% is average, and while he's striking out more batters than in the past, his K/9 remains a modest 6.2. I realize both of his starts this week are on the road where he has a 5.23 ERA, but for now I'm going to attribute that split (1.98 ERA at home) to a small sample size of 20.2 innings. Give him a go in NL-only formats.

Twitter: Yes, I'm on Twitter (@vtadave).

For the week, June 13-19

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Cole Hamels - FLA, @SEA
2. Jair Jurrjens - NYM, TEX
3. Jaime Garcia - @WAS, KC
4. Matt Cain - @ARI, @OAK
5. Ricky Nolasco - ARI, @TB
6. Tim Lincecum - @OAK
7. Roy Halladay - FLA
8. Bud Norris - PIT, @LAD (may have to face Tony Gwynn Jr., but should be OK)
9. Yovani Gallardo - @CHC, @BOS
10. Cliff Lee - FLA
11. Zack Greinke - @CHC
12. Clayton Kershaw - CIN
13. Derek Lowe - @HOU, TEX
14. Roy Oswalt - @SEA
15. Chris Carpenter - KC
16. Johnny Cueto - @LAD
17. Ryan Vogelsong - @ARI
18. Ubaldo Jimenez - DET
19. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
20. Madison Bumgarner - @ARI (runs, please, Giants offense)
21. Tommy Hanson - TEX
22. Hiroki Kuroda - CIN, HOU
23. Josh Collmenter - SF, CHW
24. Charlie Morton - @HOU
25. Chad Billingsley - CIN
26. Tim Hudson – NYM (scuffled v. Mets last time out – back still an issue?)
27. Jordan Zimmerman - BAL
28. Matt Garza - MIL
29. Kyle Lohse - @WAS
30. Paul Maholm - NYM, @CLE
31. Bronson Arroyo - @LAD, TOR
32. Jonathon Niese - @ATL, LAA
33. Shaun Marcum - @BOS
34. Ian Kennedy - SF
35. Jhoulys Chacin - SD
36. Randy Wolf - @CHC, @BOS
37. Tim Stauffer - @MIN
38. Dillon Gee - @ATL
39. Carlos Zambrano - MIL
40. Rubby De La Rosa – HOU (hedging, but I expect a nice start here)
41. John Lannan - BAL
42. Dan Hudson - CHW
43. Jonathan Sanchez - @OAK
44. Edinson Volquez - TOR

Borderline Depending on League Format

45. Jeff Karstens - @HOU, @CLE
46. Wandy Rodriguez - ATL, @LAD
47. Juan Nicasio - SD
48. Zach Duke - @FLA, CHW
49. Kyle McClellan - @WAS
50. R.A. Dickey - @ATL
51. Ryan Dempster - MIL, NYY
52. Mat Latos - @COL (Yes, seems low, but he's still not his 2010 self, and it's Coors...)
53. Mike Leake - TOR
54. J.A. Happ - PIT
55. Mike Minor - NYM
56. Brad Hand - @TB
57. Chris Capuano - LAA
58. Kevin Correia - @CLE
59. Jake Westbrook - KC
60. Jason Hammel - DET
61. Ted Lilly - HOU
62. Vance Worley - @SEA
63. James McDonald - @HOU
64. Clayton Richard - @MIN

Extreme Caution Advised

65. Javier Vazquez - @PHI
66. Aaron Harang - @COL
67. Chris Volstad - @PHI, @TB
68. Kyle Kendrick - FLA
69. Dustin Moseley - @COL, @MIN (bench for COL, start in MIN, if possible)
70. Livan Hernandez - STL
71. Jason Marquis - STL
72. Brett Myers - @LAD
73. Joe Saunders - SF
74. Chris Narveson - @CHC
75. Mike Pelfrey - @PIT, LAA
76. Yunesky Maya - STL, BAL
77. Randy Wells - MIL, NYY
78. Travis Wood - @LAD
79. Aneury Rodriguez - PIT
80. Aaron Cook - SD, DET
81. Rodrigo Lopez - NYY
82. Undecided FLA - @PHI

Notes:
I like Juan Nicasio long-term, but he's come back to Earth a bit in his last two starts against L.A. and San Francisco. He'll need to learn to miss a few more bats (4.5 K/9) to have consistent success. ... Josh Johnson is still felling some pain in his shoulder, so don't expect to see the Marlins rushing him back this week. ... Tom Gorzelanny is about two weeks from returning from an elbow injury, so two more starts for Yunesky Maya. Thrilling, I know. ... Kyle McClellan returns from a hip injury this week and will start Wednesday in Washington, with Lance Lynn headed to Triple-A. Lynn wasn't great, but he's shown enough to get another look later this year. ... Jon Garland (shoulder) is eligible to return this week, but we've yet to hear anything either way. The Dodgers have an off-day Thursday that they could use to skip Garland's spot (or is it Rubby De La Rosa's spot now?), but that is TBD. Doing so would give Clayton Kershaw an extra start. ... Kershaw has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts, both on the road against the Reds and Rockies. Certainly not the easiest places to pitch. With Kershaw, focus on his league-leading 102 strikeouts and vastly improved walk-rate. His wife is cute too, but still wondering how my wedding invite got lost in the mail. ... Brad Hand – any 80s movie come to mind when you hear that name? ... Chris Volstad has back-to-back quality starts, but both are losses. Let's mix in some runs, Fish. ... Edinson Volquez has a 9.0 K/9 and 6.2 BB/9, but his K:BB last time out was a solid 5:2. Let's see if that momentum continues. ... With a 1.93 ERA in seven starts, Johnny Cueto is pitching the best ball of his career. He's clearly the Reds' most reliable starter. ... Brett Myers has already allowed 16 home runs (80.2 innings), and he's striking out fewer batters and walking more than last year. That equates to a 5.02 ERA and declining trade value for the Astros this July. ... With Wandy Rodriguez back from an elbow injury, it's likely that Jordan Lyles heads back to Triple-A this week. He'll get one more start Saturday (6/11) to make his case that it should be Aneury Rodriguez to get demoted, but it's probably Lyles. ... Jeff Karstens somehow has a 2.94 ERA, a number that he attributes to a “changed mental attitude”. That said, I fully expect him to be shelled this week, though I did move him up in the rankings. ... Ryan Dempster has six starts in which he's allowed five or more runs and six more in which he's allowed two or fewer. Consistency, please. ... If you want to go ahead and stash Johan Santana (shoulder) on your injured list, feel free. Santana, though, isn't likely to return until late-July, and you have to wonder if he'll be effective right away. ... Just two NL starters have a GB% of at least 58 percent and a K/9 rate of 7-plus - Derek Lowe and Jhoulys Chacin.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - CLE, @COL
2. Dan Haren - @SEA, @NYM
3. CC Sabathia - TEX, @CHC
4. Alexi Ogando - @NYY, @ATL
5. James Shields - BOS, FLA
6. Zach Britton - @TOR, @WAS
7. Jered Weaver - @SEA
8. Felix Hernandez - PHI
9. Jon Lester - MIL
10. David Price - BOS
11. Josh Beckett - @TB
12. Bartolo Colon - TEX
13. Ricky Romero - BAL
14. Brandon Morrow - @CIN
15. Erik Bedard - LAA
16. Philip Humber - @ARI
17. Doug Fister - LAA
18. Colby Lewis - @ATL
19. Brian Matusz - @WAS
20. Mark Buehrle - @MIN
21. Carl Pavano - CHW, SD
22. Gio Gonzalez - SF
23. Michael Pineda – PHI (unless he's skipped – unlikely)
24. C.J. Wilson - @NYY
25. Jason Vargas - LAA, PHI
26. Francisco Liriano - SD
27. Justin Masterson - @DET, PIT
28. Ervin Santana - @SEA
29. Gavin Floyd - @MIN, @ARI
30. Scott Baker - SD
31. Jake Arrieta - @TOR
32. Edwin Jackson - @MIN
33. Clay Buchholz - @TB
34. John Danks - @ARI
35. Trevor Cahill – KC (A little worried here, but still start him outside of shallow leagues)

Borderline Depending on League Format

36. Jeremy Hellickson - BOS
37. Josh Outman - KC, SF
38. A.J. Burnett - @CHC
39. Jeremy Guthrie - @TOR
40. Fausto Carmona - @DET
41. Nick Blackburn - CHW
42. Rick Porcello - @COL
43. Brian Duensing - CHW
44. Tyler Chatwood - @NYM
45. Joel Pineiro - @NYM
46. Derek Holland - @NYY
47. Matt Harrison - @ATL
48. John Lackey - MIL
49. Alexander Cobb - @DET, FLA
50. Freddy Garcia - @CHC
51. Max Scherzer - CLE
52. Tim Wakefield - @TB, MIL
53. Carlos Carrasco - @NYY, PIT
54. Guillermo Moscoso - SF
55. Josh Tomlin - PIT
56. Carlos Villanueva - BAL, @CIN

Extreme Caution Advised

57. Wade Davis - FLA
58. Luke Hochevar - @OAK
59. Mitch Talbot - @DET
60. Chris Jakubauskas - @WAS
61. Brad Penny - CLE
62. Jeff Francis - @OAK
63. Graham Godfrey - KC
64. Phil Coke - TB, @COL
65. Jo-Jo Reyes - BAL
66. Ivan Nova - TEX
67. Kyle Drabek - @CIN
68. Felipe Paulino - @STL
69. Danny Duffy - @OAK, @STL
70. Vincent Mazzaro - @STL

Notes:
The A's already have Brett Anderson on the shelf and headed for elbow surgery, and now they have Trevor Cahill to worry about. After a Thursday shellacking in Chicago, Cahill has a 7.25 ERA in his last four starts with a 15:14 K:BB. I'd still use him this week against K.C., but he's scuffling to be sure. ... Derek Holland allowed four runs over seven innings Thursday, but did fan 10 Twins batters. This, on the heels of a shutout against the Indians in his previous start, means Holland is on a nice run. Holland's 1.1 HR/9 is a bit high, but I still like him as a solid No. 2. ... The Royals' rotation looks to be a mess this week (insert joke here), as Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen are about to return from injuries. They could very well both pitch during the Cardinals' series, replacing Danny Duffy and Vincent Mazzaro, but do yourself a favor and just avoid this entire train wreck. ... Graham Godfrey is the latest A's Triple-A starter to get the big-league call. Godfrey had a 45:14 K:BB in 50.1 innings in the tough environment that is the Pacific Coast League, so he's worth a look. ... At some point, look for the Mariners to skip Michael Pineda in the rotation. Perhaps this week with the Thursday off-day, though it has to be hard to skip a guy with a 2.33 ERA. ... Wade Davis has been a huge disappointment after signing that controversial seven-year deal. His velocity is down, strikeouts are down and walks are up. I still like him long-term, but he's probably going to top out as a No. 3 innings-eater type. ... Kyle Drabek has 10 strikeouts and 20 walks in 25.2 innings over his last five starts. Triple-A is looking like a definite possibility at some point. ... Carl Pavano still isn't striking anybody out (3.5 K/9), but he's a good value this week with two starts and a 2.70 ERA in his last five outings. ... Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver have to be the early front-runners for the AL Cy Young. Verlander has a 1.14 ERA in his last three starts and Weaver a 1.90 mark in the same. ... Edwin Jackson's .349 BABIP is the highest in baseball. His velocity remains very good, so I'd expect a strong second half assuming he's not booted to the bullpen once Jake Peavy is healthy.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Justin Verlander - CLE, @COL
2. Dan Haren - @SEA, @NYM
3. CC Sabathia - TEX, @CHC
4. Cole Hamels - FLA, @SEA
5. Jair Jurrjens - NYM, TEX
6. Jaime Garcia - @WAS, KC
7. Matt Cain - @ARI, @OAK
8. Alexi Ogando - @NYY, @ATL
9. James Shields - BOS, FLA
10. Ricky Nolasco - ARI, @TB
11. Tim Lincecum - @OAK
12. Roy Halladay - FLA
13. Zach Britton - @TOR, @WAS
14. Jered Weaver - @SEA
15. Felix Hernandez - PHI
16. Jon Lester - MIL
17. Bud Norris - PIT, @LAD (may have to face Tony Gwynn Jr., but should be OK)
18. David Price - BOS
19. Yovani Gallardo - @CHC, @BOS
20. Cliff Lee - FLA
21. Zack Greinke - @CHC
22. Josh Beckett - @TB
23. Clayton Kershaw - CIN
24. Derek Lowe - @HOU, TEX
25. Bartolo Colon - TEX
26. Roy Oswalt - @SEA
27. Chris Carpenter - KC
28. Johnny Cueto - @LAD
29. Ricky Romero - BAL
30. Brandon Morrow - @CIN
31. Ryan Vogelsong - @ARI
32. Ubaldo Jimenez - DET
33. Erik Bedard - LAA
34. Philip Humber - @ARI
35. Doug Fister - LAA
36. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
37. Colby Lewis - @ATL
38. Madison Bumgarner - @ARI (runs, please, Giants offense)
39. Tommy Hanson - TEX
40. Hiroki Kuroda - CIN, HOU
41. Josh Collmenter - SF, CHW
42. Brian Matusz - @WAS
43. Charlie Morton - @HOU
44. Mark Buehrle - @MIN
45. Chad Billingsley - CIN
46. Tim Hudson – NYM (scuffled v. Mets last time out – back still an issue?)
47. Jordan Zimmerman - BAL
48. Matt Garza - MIL
49. Kyle Lohse - @WAS
50. Paul Maholm - NYM, @CLE
51. Bronson Arroyo - @LAD, TOR
52. Carl Pavano - CHW, SD
53. Jonathon Niese - @ATL, LAA
54. Shaun Marcum - @BOS
55. Ian Kennedy - SF
56. Jhoulys Chacin - SD
57. Randy Wolf - @CHC, @BOS
58. Gio Gonzalez - SF
59. Tim Stauffer - @MIN
60. Dillon Gee - @ATL
61. Michael Pineda – PHI (unless he's skipped – unlikely)
62. Carlos Zambrano - MIL
63. C.J. Wilson - @NYY
64. Jason Vargas - LAA, PHI
65. Francisco Liriano - SD
66. Justin Masterson - @DET, PIT
67. Ervin Santana - @SEA
68. Gavin Floyd - @MIN, @ARI
69. Scott Baker - SD
70. Rubby De La Rosa – HOU (hedging, but I expect a nice start)
71. Jake Arrieta - @TOR
72. Edwin Jackson - @MIN
73. Clay Buchholz - @TB
74. John Danks - @ARI
75. Trevor Cahill – KC (A little worried here, but still start him outside of shallow leagues)
76. John Lannan - BAL
77. Dan Hudson - CHW
78. Jonathan Sanchez - @OAK
79. Edinson Volquez - TOR
80. Jeff Karstens - @HOU, @CLE
81. Wandy Rodriguez - ATL, @LAD
82. Jeremy Hellickson - BOS
83. Juan Nicasio - SD
84. Zach Duke - @FLA, CHW
85. Josh Outman - KC, SF
86. A.J. Burnett - @CHC
87. Jeremy Guthrie - @TOR
88. Kyle McClellan - @WAS
89. Fausto Carmona - @DET
90. Nick Blackburn - CHW
91. Rick Porcello - @COL
92. Brian Duensing - CHW
93. R.A. Dickey - @ATL
94. Ryan Dempster - MIL, NYY
95. Mat Latos - @COL (Yes, seems low, but he's still not his 2010 self, and it's Coors...)
96. Tyler Chatwood - @NYM
97. Joel Pineiro - @NYM
98. Mike Leake - TOR
99. Derek Holland - @NYY
100. Matt Harrison - @ATL

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.