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Pitching Value Meter: Week of Intrigue

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Sleeper of the week: Brandon Beachy, ATL (@SEA, BAL)

OK, so after his 11-strikeout effort in his last start, Beachy isn't much of a sleeper, but in shallower semi-competitive leagues, he could still be out there for the taking. He is 42-percent owned in Yahoo leagues, but with two favorable starts this week, that number should be closer to 100 percent. Beachy has a 3.22 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 57:14 K:BB in 50.1 innings. He doesn't get the publicity of the other four Braves starters, or even of their kids like Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and others, but Beachy's numbers stand up to all those guys. A 148:28 K:BB in just 120 minor league innings last year led to three solid starts in September for the Braves, and this year has been even better.

Note to major league GMs: If you hire me to manage your team (or heck, clean the toilets and pick up dry cleaning), I promise not to quit and get hammered with hot young chicks. Thanks.

Twitter: Yes, I'm on Twitter (@vtadave).

For this week June 27 July 3

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Zack Greinke - @NYY, @MIN
2. Cliff Lee - BOS, @TOR
3. Roy Halladay - @TOR
4. Ian Kennedy - CLE, @OAK
5. Clayton Kershaw - @LAA
6. Tim Lincecum - @CHC
7. Brandon Beachy - @SEA, BAL
8. Mat Latos - KC, @SEA
9. Matt Garza - COL, SF
10. Johnny Cueto - @TB, CLE
11. Jair Jurrjens - BAL
12. Chris Carpenter - @BAL
13. Ubaldo Jimenez - CHW
14. Ryan Vogelsong - @CHC, @DET
15. Chad Billingsley - @MIN, @LAA
16. Tommy Hanson - @SEA
17. Cole Hamels - @TOR
18. John Lannan - @LAA, PIT (maybe he should be higher. ... but I can't)
19. Matt Cain - @DET
20. Jaime Garcia - @TB
21. Dan Hudson - CLE
22. Tim Hudson - BAL
23. Wandy Rodriguez - TEX
24. Mike Pelfrey - @DET
25. Josh Collmenter - @OAK
26. Jhoulys Chacin - KC
27. Hiroki Kuroda - @LAA
28. Tim Stauffer - KC
29. Yovani Gallardo - @MIN
30. Ricky Nolasco - @OAK
31. Paul Maholm - @TOR
32. Jordan Zimmermann - @LAA
33. Mike Leake - @TB
34. Carlos Zambrano - SF
35. Jeff Karstens - @WAS
36. Jason Marquis - @LAA, PIT
37. Ryan Dempster - SF
38. Livan Hernandez - PIT
39. Derek Lowe - @SEA
40. Chris Capuano - @DET (check status)
41. Dustin Moseley - @SEA
42. Shaun Marcum - @NYY
43. Anibal Sanchez - @TEX
44. R.A. Dickey - @DET, NYY

Borderline Depending on League Format

45. Randy Wolf - @NYY
46. Dillon Gee - NYY
47. Kyle Lohse - @BAL, @TB
48. Cory Luebke - @SEA
49. Chris Volstad - @OAK
50. Edinson Volquez - @TB
51. Brett Myers TEX
52. Kyle McClellan - @TB
53. Jonathon Niese - NYY
54. Joe Saunders - @OAK
55. Clayton Richard - KC
56. Kevin Correia - @TOR
57. Jordan Lyles - TEX, BOS
58. Homer Bailey - CLE
59. Chris Narveson - @MIN
60. Javier Vazquez - @OAK, @TEX
61. Bronson Arroyo - CLE
62. Bud Norris - BOS
63. Rubby De La Rosa - @MIN
64. Tom Gorzelanny - PIT
65. Randy Wells - CHW
66. Charlie Morton - @TOR, @WAS
67. James McDonald - @WAS
68. Jason Hammel - CHW, KC

Extreme Caution Advised

69. Vance Worley - BOS
70. Doug Davis - SF, CHW
71. Jake Westbrook - @BAL
72. Ted Lilly - @MIN
73. Jonathan Sanchez - @CHC
74. Juan Nicasio - KC
75. Brad Hand - @TEX
76. Kyle Kendrick - BOS
77. J.A. Happ - BOS
78. Brad Lincoln - @WAS
79. Zach Duke - CLE
80. Aaron Cook - CHW
81. Madison Bumgarner - @DET
82. Barry Zito - @CHC
83. Casey Coleman SF

Notes: Tommy Hanson
(shoulder) is slated to go this week barring any setbacks over the weekend. He'll likely throw a bit Sunday, but we don't anticipate any issues. ... Roy Oswalt is talking retirement related to his chronically sore back, an injury that limited him greatly in his last start. We'll see what the MRI reveals, but for now, just hope he misses the minimum 15 days. I have Kyle Kendrick slotted in his place for Wednesday's start. ... Why Chris Carpenter was left in there to throw 124 pitches Thursday with his team up 6-2 is beyond me. Carp has now accumulated 250 pitches in two starts. He's a horse, but this could be an issue going forward. ... Kyle Lohse has a solid 2.91 ERA, but he's now allowed seven homers over his last four starts. We could be seeing a major regression on the horizon. ... Tim Lincecum looked like his old self with 12 strikeouts against a surging Twins team in his last start. Perhaps he's over his rough patch for the year. ... Zack Greinke has a 35:3 K:BB in 26.1 innings this month, so I'm not exactly worried that he has a 4.77 ERA. A .375 BABIP is the main culprit here, but a .2.50 ERA the rest of the way wouldn't surprise. ... Clayton Kershaw's 9.8 K/9 leads all MLB starters who qualify for the ERA title. Kershaw had a rough start to June, but he's fine now. ... I've yet to hear what the Nationals are going to do with their rotation this week considering their upcoming doubleheader, but with the Thursday off-day, they could continue with a five-man rotation and avoid bringing up, say, Ross Detwiler for a spot start. At risk if they go that route would be Jason Marquis' two-start status. ... The Cubs also have a twin-bill, but no off day, so we'll go with Casey Coleman as a spot-starter and recommend not using him. ... The Pirates appear set to spot-start Brad Lincoln for their July 2 doubleheader. Probably a one-shot deal for the 2006 No. 4 overall pick. ... The Giants are in need of a spot-starter for Tuesday's doubleheader, and it is expected to be a guy named Barry Zito. The start should be a one-shot deal, with Zito transitioning to the bullpen, but if Madison Bumgarner's struggles continue, who knows? ... Chris Capuano left his last start with abdominal soreness (oblique?), but it appears he'll be able to make his next start. Monitor his progress over the weekend to be sure. ... Mat Latos' last two starts - @COL, @BOS. It doesn't get any tougher than that. Expect far better numbers this week given his matchups.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - NYM
2. Josh Beckett - @PHI, @HOU
3. Jered Weaver - LAD
4. Jon Lester - @PHI
5. Felix Hernandez - ATL
6. Erik Bedard - ATL, SD
7. James Shields - CIN
8. CC Sabathia - @NYM
9. Michael Pineda - ATL
10. David Price - CIN
11. C.J. Wilson - @HOU, FLA
12. Ervin Santana - WAS, LAD
13. Gio Gonzalez - FLA, ARI
14. Dan Haren - WAS
15. Ricky Romero - PHI
16. Brandon Morrow - PIT
17. Alexi Ogando - FLA
18. Max Scherzer - TOR, SF
19. Philip Humber - @CHC
20. Francisco Liriano - MIL
21. Jason Vargas - SD
22. Colby Lewis - @HOU
23. Doug Fister - SD
24. Nick Blackburn - LAD, MIL
25. Freddy Garcia - MIL, @NYM
26. Matt Harrison - @HOU
27. Scott Baker - LAD
28. Trevor Cahill - ARI
29. Brian Duensing - LAD
30. John Danks - @CHC
31. Tyler Chatwood - LAD
32. Derek Holland - FLA
33. Rick Porcello - NYM, SF
34. Carlos Carrasco - @ARI
35. Jeremy Hellickson - CIN, STL
36. Gavin Floyd - @COL, @CHC
37. Josh Outman - ARI
38. Jake Arrieta - STL, @ATL

Borderline Depending on League Format

39. Felipe Paulino - @SD
40. Joel Pineiro - WAS
41. Zach Stewart - @DET, PHI
42. Carlos Villanueva - PIT
43. Bruce Chen - @SD
44. Josh Tomlin - @ARI
45. Jeremy Guthrie - @ATL
46. Jeff Niemann - STL
47. A.J. Burnett - MIL
48. Justin Masterson - @CIN
49. Zach Britton - STL
50. Graham Godfrey - FLA
51. Brian Matusz - @ATL
52. Edwin Jackson - @CHC
53. Jeff Francis - @SD, @COL
54. Carl Pavano - MIL
55. Guillermo Moscoso - FLA

Extreme Caution Advised

56. Mitch Talbot - @ARI, @CIN
57. Mark Buehrle - @COL
58. Andrew Miller - @HOU
59. Tim Wakefield - @HOU
60. Ivan Nova - @NYM
61. Chris Jakubauskas - STL
62. Brian Gordon - MIL
63. Wade Davis - STL
64. Jo-Jo Reyes - PIT, PHI
65. Brad Penny - SF
66. Phil Coke - NYM
67. John Lackey - @PHI
68. Fausto Carmona - @CIN
69. Luke Hochevar - @COL
70. Danny Duffy - @COL (could be Kyle Davies instead)

Notes:
When Josh Beckett (flu) makes his start Tuesday, it will have been 13 days since he's last pitched. The illness might have come at a good time, as a little extra rest about half way through the season seems positive. ... Colby Lewis (4.44 ERA) has had his ups and downs, but he has 18 strikeouts over his last two starts, so he should be fine. ... Justin Verlander has a 1.06 ERA and 34:4 K:BB over his first four starts this month. He's a strong play to start next month's All-Star Game. ... I've been waiting for this kind of effort (3.24 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) from Scott Baker for a couple years now, so of course I own him in zero leagues. ... Josh Tomlin has a 20:2 K:BB in 30 innings this month, but a 6.60 ERA. His last two starts have been far better, but both have come against NL clubs, so we'll see if he can keep up the momentum once interleague play (mercifully) ends. ... After opening with a 2.35 ERA in his first 10 starts, Zach Britton may be hitting a bit of a wall with a 5.14 mark in his last five. ... Kyle Davies could return to the Royals rotation this week, pushing Danny Duffy and is 5.8 BB/9 back to Triple-A. Neither is recommended this week with that slot scheduled to pitch in Coors Field. ... It appears Clay Buchholz (back) won't start this coming week, but on July 4. He'd replace either Andrew Miller or Tim Wakefield. ... Brandon McCarthy (shoulder) is similarly close to returning, likely July 3. Graham Godfrey and Guillermo Moscoso are competing to remain in the rotation. ... Bruce Chen could be worth a look in AL-only leagues, as he's likely as reliable as it gets on waiver wires in those leagues. ... Kyle Gibson is probably the most major league ready pitching prospect left in the minors who's yet to make his MLB debut. Gibson has an impressive 80:20 K:BB in 76.1 innings, and though he probably has mid-rotation upside, he could be an asset when called upon. The Twins starters have been pitching great lately, so Gibson's debut will come later this summer barring an injury. ... I still believe in Chris Tillman's stuff, but since his demotion to Triple-A in early June, Tillman has a 4.56 ERA and 14:11 K:BB in 23.2 innings. So, the Orioles will continue to roll out other options such as Chris Jakubauskas. ... There are some interesting pitching matchups this week: Josh Beckett vs. Cliff Lee on Tuesday, Justin Verlander vs. the surprising Dillon Gee on Thursday, Francisco Liriano vs. Yovani Gallardo on Friday, and the best one (take the under, whatever it is) on Saturday, Jered Weaver vs. Clayton Kershaw. Michael Pineda vs. Tommy Hanson on Tuesday isn't so bad either.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Zack Greinke - @NYY, @MIN
2. Cliff Lee - BOS, @TOR
3. Justin Verlander - NYM
4. Roy Halladay - @TOR
5. Josh Beckett - @PHI, @HOU
6. Ian Kennedy - CLE, @OAK
7. Jered Weaver - LAD
8. Clayton Kershaw - @LAA
9. Jon Lester - @PHI
10. Felix Hernandez - ATL
11. Tim Lincecum - @CHC
12. Erik Bedard - ATL, SD
13. James Shields - CIN
14. Brandon Beachy - @SEA, BAL
15. CC Sabathia - @NYM
16. Mat Latos - KC, @SEA
17. Michael Pineda - ATL
18. David Price - CIN
19. C.J. Wilson - @HOU, FLA
20. Matt Garza - COL, SF
21. Johnny Cueto - @TB, CLE
22. Jair Jurrjens - BAL
23. Chris Carpenter - @BAL
24. Ervin Santana - WAS, LAD
25. Ubaldo Jimenez - CHW
26. Ryan Vogelsong - @CHC, @DET
27. Chad Billingsley - @MIN, @LAA
28. Gio Gonzalez - FLA, ARI
29. Tommy Hanson - @SEA
30. Cole Hamels - @TOR
31. Dan Haren - WAS
32. John Lannan - @LAA, PIT (maybe he should be higher. ... but I can't)
33. Ricky Romero - PHI
34. Brandon Morrow - PIT
35. Alexi Ogando - FLA
36. Matt Cain - @DET
37. Max Scherzer - TOR, SF
38. Philip Humber - @CHC
39. Jaime Garcia - @TB
40. Francisco Liriano - MIL
41. Dan Hudson - CLE
42. Tim Hudson - BAL
43. Wandy Rodriguez - TEX
44. Jason Vargas - SD
45. Mike Pelfrey - @DET
46. Josh Collmenter - @OAK
47. Jhoulys Chacin - KC
48. Hiroki Kuroda - @LAA
49. Colby Lewis - @HOU
50. Tim Stauffer - KC
51. Yovani Gallardo - @MIN
52. Doug Fister - SD
53. Nick Blackburn - LAD, MIL
54. Ricky Nolasco - @OAK
55. Freddy Garcia - MIL, @NYM
56. Matt Harrison - @HOU
57. Scott Baker - LAD
58. Trevor Cahill - ARI
59. Paul Maholm - @TOR
60. Brian Duensing - LAD
61. Jordan Zimmermann - @LAA
62. Mike Leake - @TB
63. John Danks - @CHC
64. Carlos Zambrano - SF
65. Jeff Karstens - @WAS
66. Jason Marquis - @LAA, PIT
67. Ryan Dempster - SF
68. Tyler Chatwood - LAD
69. Livan Hernandez - PIT
70. Derek Lowe - @SEA
71. Chris Capuano - @DET (check status)
72. Dustin Moseley - @SEA
73. Shaun Marcum - @NYY
74. Anibal Sanchez - @TEX
75. R.A. Dickey - @DET, NYY
76. Derek Holland - FLA
77. Randy Wolf - @NYY
78. Rick Porcello - NYM, SF
79. Carlos Carrasco - @ARI
80. Jeremy Hellickson - CIN, STL
81. Gavin Floyd - @COL, @CHC
82. Josh Outman - ARI
83. Jake Arrieta - STL, @ATL
84. Felipe Paulino - @SD
85. Dillon Gee - NYY
86. Kyle Lohse - @BAL, @TB
87. Joel Pineiro - WAS
88. Cory Luebke - @SEA
89. Chris Volstad - @OAK
90. Zach Stewart - @DET, PHI
91. Edinson Volquez - @TB
92. Brett Myers TEX
93. Carlos Villanueva - PIT
94. Bruce Chen - @SD
95. Kyle McClellan - @TB
96. Jonathon Niese - NYY
97. Josh Tomlin - @ARI
98. Joe Saunders - @OAK
99. Clayton Richard - KC
100. Jeremy Guthrie - @ATL

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.