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Pitching Value Meter: On the Prowl

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Sleeper of the Week: Chris Capuano, MIL (@LAD, @SF)

Capuano was touched for five runs in his last start, but that was against the Tigers (sixth in runs), and he had a 6:0 K:BB. This week he gets the 21st- and 29th-ranked offenses in pitcher's parks. For the year, Capuano has a 4.27 ERA with solid component ratios 7.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. As long as he pitches around Matt Kemp, Capuano should come out of these two starts with an overall ERA less than 4.00.

Like the Dodgers, I got paid on June 30. Fortunately for my family and the bank that holds the note on my house, my paycheck did not bounce.

Twitter: Yes, I'm on Twitter (@vtadave).

For this week July 4-10

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Tim Lincecum - SD, NYM
2. Cliff Lee - ATL
3. Matt Cain - SD, NYM
4. Cole Hamels - @FLA
5. Roy Halladay - ATL
6. Shaun Marcum - ARI, CIN
7. Chris Carpenter - CIN, ARI
8. Ubaldo Jimenez - @ATL, @WAS
9. Tommy Hanson - COL, @PHI
10. Tim Stauffer - @SF, @LAD
11. Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT, @FLA
12. Ryan Dempster - @WAS, @PIT
13. Dan Hudson - @MIL, @STL
14. Clayton Kershaw - NYM
15. Jordan Zimmermann - CHC, COL
16. Zack Greinke - CIN
17. Jaime Garcia - CIN, ARI
18. Jair Jurrjens - COL
19. Jeff Karstens - HOU
20. Yovani Gallardo - ARI
21. Ian Kennedy - @STL
22. Mat Latos - @LAD
23. Derek Lowe - COL, @PHI
24. Jhoulys Chacin - @ATL
25. Bud Norris - @PIT
26. Tim Hudson - COL
27. Ricky Nolasco - PHI, HOU
28. Vance Worley - @FLA, ATL
29. Matt Garza - @WAS
30. Edinson Volquez - @STL, @MIL
31. Johnny Cueto - @STL, @MIL
32. Randy Wolf - ARI, CIN
33. Paul Maholm - HOU, CHC
34. Madison Bumgarner - SD
35. Chris Capuano - @LAD, @SF
36. Chad Billingsley - NYM
37. Brett Myers - @PIT, @FLA
38. Hiroki Kuroda - SD
39. Ryan Vogelsong - SD
40. Rubby De La Rosa - NYM, SD
41. Mike Pelfrey - @LAD, @SF
42. Clayton Richard - @SF, @LAD
43. Jonathon Niese - @LAD
44. Brandon Beachy - @PHI
45. Jason Hammel - @WAS
46. Dustin Moseley - @SF
47. Mike Leake - @MIL
48. Chris Narveson - CIN
49. Cory Luebke - @SF

Borderline Depending on League Format

50. Juan Nicasio - @ATL
51. John Lannan - CHC
52. Anibal Sanchez - PHI
53. Dillon Gee - @LAD
54. Javier Vazquez - HOU
55. R.A. Dickey - @SF
56. Tom Gorzelanny - CHC
57. Kyle McClellan - ARI
58. Josh Collmenter - @MIL
59. Charlie Morton - HOU
60. Homer Bailey - @MIL
61. Jason Marquis - COL
62. Kyle Lohse - ARI
63. Chris Volstad - PHI, HOU
64. Brad Hand - HOU
65. Livan Hernandez - COL
66. Kevin Correia - CHC
67. Bronson Arroyo - @STL

Extreme Caution Advised

68. J.A. Happ - @FLA
69. Kyle Kendrick - @FLA
70. Jordan Lyles - @FLA
71. James McDonald - CHC
72. Joe Saunders - @STL
73. Ted Lilly - NYM, SD
74. Barry Zito - SD
75. Randy Wells - @WAS
76. Yunesky Maya - CHC, COL
77. Casey Coleman - @PIT
78. Jake Westbrook - CIN
79. Ramon Ortiz - @WAS, @PIT
80. Zach Duke - @MIL, @STL
81. Aaron Cook - @ATL, @WAS

Notes: Carlos Zambrano
appears headed for the DL with a back injury, though early indication are it's not serious. We'll leave him out of this week's projections. Ramon Ortiz is apparently taking Zambrano's start Thursday. Yes, pitching is a scarce commodity still. ... Jeff Karstens takes a 2.65 ERA into his start against the Astros this week. If the Pirates have just one All-Star representative, it's probably going to be Joel Hanrahan, but Karstens has been a nice surprise this year. ... The Nationals have a doubleheader Sunday, so I'm not quite sure what to make of their rotation this week. I imagine they'll use the uninspiring Yunesky Maya for a spot start or two. ... Two runs in seven innings in Wrigley for Barry Zito in his return was impressive, but it's not enough to bump Jonathan Sanchez to the bullpen once Sanchez returns from his biceps injury. Zito pitches Saturday (July 2) in Detroit. ... Zach Duke has allowed 20 runs in 19 innings over his last four starts and could be in danger of losing his job to Barry Enright or perhaps Jarrod Parker. ... Your NL pitcher of the month: Cliff Lee. "Just" 29 strikeouts in 42 innings, but Lee also allowed just one run all month. Look out Orel Hershiser. ... We knew it was coming when Charlie Morton had a 2.52 ERA despite a 42:31 K:BB. Morton's last three starts 15 runs on a whopping 26 hits in just 11 innings. He's a risky play in all formats, but hopefully having his last start skipped will help. Getting the Astros and Nationals in his next two starts won't hurt either. ... The inevitable Dillon Gee correction has come, as the surprising right-hander has allowed seven runs in 10 innings with a 2:8 K:BB over his last two starts. He won't completely collapse, but a 4.00ish ERA the rest of the way is probably a reasonable projection. He's also reportedly dealing with a "dead arm," so remain cautious. ... We'll see on Sunday whether Cole Hamels gets the All-Star nod, but he certainly deserves it. I noted in March that Hamels led the league in strikeouts after the All-Star break last year, so this isn't a huge surprise. At this point, I wouldn't argue with the statement that the Phillies have the top three pitchers in baseball. Apologies to Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw and others. ... Tim Lincecum finished June with 21 strikeouts over his last two starts (14 innings), and though he's fallen off slightly from his Cy Young years (2008-2009), he could still easily lead the NL in strikeouts for the fourth straight year in 2011.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - @LAA, @KC
2. Felix Hernandez - @OAK, @LAA
3. Michael Pineda - @OAK, @LAA
4. Jon Lester - TOR, BAL
5. Dan Haren - DET, SEA
6. James Shields - @MIN, @NYY
7. David Price - @MIN, @NYY
8. Brandon Morrow - @BOS, @CLE
9. Ricky Romero - @BOS, @CLE
10. Scott Baker - TB, @CHW
11. Jered Weaver - SEA
12. Josh Beckett - BAL
13. CC Sabathia - @CLE
14. C.J. Wilson - OAK
15. Jake Peavy - KC, MIN
16. Philip Humber - MIN
17. Matt Harrison - BAL, OAK
18. Bartolo Colon - TB
19. Trevor Cahill - SEA, @TEX
20. Colby Lewis - BAL, OAK
21. Mark Buehrle - KC, MIN
22. Carlos Carrasco - NYY, TOR
23. Francisco Liriano - TB
24. Ervin Santana - SEA
25. Jason Vargas - @OAK
26. Edwin Jackson - KC
27. Doug Fister - @LAA
28. Brian Duensing - TB, @CHW
29. A.J. Burnett - @CLE, TB
30. Ivan Nova - @CLE
31. Derek Holland - OAK
32. Gio Gonzalez - @TEX
33. Freddy Garcia - TB
34. Wade Davis - @MIN
35. Felipe Paulino - @CHW
36. Justin Masterson - NYY
37. Carl Pavano - @CHW
38. Nick Blackburn - @CHW
39. Max Scherzer - @KC

Borderline Depending on League Format

40. Tyler Chatwood - DET
41. Alexi Ogando - BAL
42. Gavin Floyd - MIN
43. Jeremy Hellickson - @NYY
44. Carlos Villanueva - @CLE
45. Josh Tomlin - NYY, TOR
46. Charlie Furbush - @LAA, @KC
47. Phil Hughes - TB
48. Brad Penny - @LAA
49. Andrew Miller - BAL
50. Guillermo Moscoso - SEA, @TEX (tentative could be Brandon McCarthy)
51. Jeremy Guthrie - @TEX
52. Zach Britton - @BOS
53. John Lackey - TOR, BAL
54. Tim Wakefield - TOR
55. Jo-Jo Reyes - @CLE
56. Joel Pineiro - DET, SEA
57. Rich Harden - SEA
58. Rick Porcello - @KC

Extreme Caution Advised

59. Jake Arrieta - @BOS
60. Bruce Chen - @CHW
61. Jeff Niemann - @NYY
62. Chris Jakubauskas - @TEX, @BOS
63. Alfredo Simon - @TEX, @BOS
64. Brett Cecil - @BOS
65. Fausto Carmona - TOR
66. Mitch Talbot - TOR
67. Luke Hochevar - DET
68. Jeff Francis - @CHW, DET
69. Danny Duffy - DET
70. Kyle Davies - DET
71. Josh Outman - @TEX
72. Luke French - @LAA (tentative)

Notes:
The Yankees could go with a six-man rotation with Phil Hughes closing in on a return. That said, it isn't set in stone, but for now it's probably best to assume that CC Sabathia does not get two starts this week. ... I was pretty bullish on Brian Matusz during spring drafts, but I'll admit I was dead wrong. Matusz's fastball has averaged a Wakefield-like 86.7 mph this year, and now he's been optioned to Triple-A after getting lit up by the Cardinals in his last start. I have to think there's a lingering issue with his shoulder, but maybe it's just mechanical. ... This may not come as exciting news, but like the Yankees, the Royals are going to use a six-man rotation this week. Kyle Davies returns from the DL and for now, Danny Duffy, who gave up five runs in five innings Friday, avoids Triple-A. ... A lot of movement in the Oakland rotation recently, where Rich Harden is back and Brandon McCarthy is close to back. McCarthy could replace Guillermo Moscoso on Monday, though with that slot pitching in Texas next weekend, both should be avoided. ... Erik Bedard's 90 innings are the most he's thrown since 2007, but a minor knee injury forces him to the DL. He'll return after the All-Star break to a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Luke French appears to be the most likely candidate to fill in. ... Alexi Ogando's season has fallen apart to the point where he could be optioned to the minors in favor of Scott Feldman. We'll slot Ogando in our rankings this week, but monitor his status over the weekend. ... Your AL pitcher of the month for June is Justin Verlander in a landslide. Verlander was 6-0 with a 0.92 ERA while leading the league with 54 strikeouts. He or Jered Weaver will start the All-Star game. ... Teammates Matt Harrison and C.J. Wilson are tied for the major league lead with 18 induced double plays. Both show that GB pitchers can succeed in tough pitching environments. ... Opposing baserunners have combined to steal bases successfully in 32 of 33 attempts versus Edwin Jackson and Gavin Floyd. Yep, a solid defender behind the plate is a factor in evaluating pitchers from a fantasy perspective. ... I'm having a tough time wholeheartedly endorsing Felipe Paulino, but he's as good as it gets if you just have to have a K.C. starter 3.21 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a fastball that averages 95 mph.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100


1. Justin Verlander - @LAA, @KC
2. Felix Hernandez - @OAK, @LAA
3. Tim Lincecum - SD, NYM
4. Michael Pineda - @OAK, @LAA
5. Jon Lester - TOR, BAL
6. Dan Haren - DET, SEA
7. James Shields - @MIN, @NYY
8. David Price - @MIN, @NYY
9. Cliff Lee - ATL
10. Brandon Morrow - @BOS, @CLE
11. Ricky Romero - @BOS, @CLE
12. Scott Baker - TB, @CHW
13. Matt Cain - SD, NYM
14. Jered Weaver - SEA
15. Cole Hamels - @FLA
16. Josh Beckett - BAL
17. Roy Halladay - ATL
18. CC Sabathia - @CLE
19. C.J. Wilson - OAK
20. Shaun Marcum - ARI, CIN
21. Chris Carpenter - CIN, ARI
22. Ubaldo Jimenez - @ATL, @WAS
23. Tommy Hanson - COL, @PHI
24. Tim Stauffer - @SF, @LAD
25. Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT, @FLA
26. Jake Peavy - KC, MIN
27. Ryan Dempster - @WAS, @PIT
28. Dan Hudson - @MIL, @STL
29. Clayton Kershaw - NYM
30. Jordan Zimmermann - CHC, COL
31. Zack Greinke - CIN
32. Jaime Garcia - CIN, ARI
33. Jair Jurrjens - COL
34. Philip Humber - MIN
35. Jeff Karstens - HOU
36. Matt Harrison - BAL, OAK
37. Bartolo Colon - TB
38. Yovani Gallardo - ARI
39. Trevor Cahill - SEA, @TEX
40. Colby Lewis - BAL, OAK
41. Ian Kennedy - @STL
42. Mat Latos - @LAD
43. Derek Lowe - COL, @PHI
44. Jhoulys Chacin - @ATL
45. Bud Norris - @PIT
46. Tim Hudson - COL
47. Ricky Nolasco - PHI, HOU
48. Vance Worley - @FLA, ATL
49. Matt Garza - @WAS
50. Edinson Volquez - @STL, @MIL
51. Johnny Cueto - @STL, @MIL
52. Randy Wolf - ARI, CIN
53. Mark Buehrle - KC, MIN
54. Paul Maholm - HOU, CHC
55. Madison Bumgarner - SD
56. Carlos Carrasco - NYY, TOR
57. Chris Capuano - @LAD, @SF
58. Chad Billingsley - NYM
59. Brett Myers - @PIT, @FLA
60. Hiroki Kuroda - SD
61. Francisco Liriano - TB
62. Ryan Vogelsong - SD
63. Ervin Santana - SEA
64. Jason Vargas - @OAK
65. Edwin Jackson - KC
66. Doug Fister - @LAA
67. Brian Duensing - TB, @CHW
68. Rubby De La Rosa - NYM, SD
69. A.J. Burnett - @CLE, TB
70. Ivan Nova - @CLE
71. Mike Pelfrey - @LAD, @SF
72. Derek Holland - OAK
73. Gio Gonzalez - @TEX
74. Clayton Richard - @SF, @LAD
75. Freddy Garcia - TB
76. Wade Davis - @MIN
77. Felipe Paulino - @CHW
78. Justin Masterson - NYY
79. Carl Pavano - @CHW
80. Jonathon Niese - @LAD
81. Brandon Beachy - @PHI
82. Nick Blackburn - @CHW
83. Jason Hammel - @WAS
84. Dustin Moseley - @SF
85. Max Scherzer - @KC
86. Mike Leake - @MIL
87. Chris Narveson - CIN
88. Cory Luebke - @SF
89. Tyler Chatwood - DET
90. Alexi Ogando - BAL
91. Gavin Floyd - MIN
92. Jeremy Hellickson - @NYY
93. Carlos Villanueva - @CLE
94. Josh Tomlin - NYY, TOR
95. Juan Nicasio - @ATL
96. Charlie Furbush - @LAA, @KC
97. John Lannan - CHC
98. Anibal Sanchez - PHI
99. Dillon Gee - @LAD
100. Phil Hughes - TB


Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.


Follow @vtadave on Twitter.

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