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Pitching Value Meter: Dodger Blues

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.


Quick hits for the week:

For all of you on the East Coast, I wish you luck as Hurricane Irene bears down on that part of the country. The hurricane will also affect a far less important item, and that is the accuracy of this list. We've already seen games called off, which will result in some rotation restructuring, so keep that in mind if you are counting on two starts from teams in New York, Boston, etc.

Hurricane round 2: Cliff Lee had his Saturday start canceled due to weather, and this could make him a two-start pitcher next week. That said, you're starting Lee in all formats every week anyway.

Please don't kill me if Jered Weaver is a two-start pitcher this week. I have him with one as RotoWire's player notes have Weaver starting on Sunday, making him a one-start guy.

I posted this Friday on Facebook:

"Watching the Dodgers losing 1-0 (not the first time), but I just got chills as Vin Scully just announced that he will return next year. To say this is the highlight of what has been a horrific season on and off the field would be a bit of an understatement."

Matt Kemp: 30/30 season before September, MVP candidate and a chance at the Triple Crown if he gets red-hot. P.S. Apologies (not really) for the Dodgers talk, but this is a great day.

Email: vtadave@yahoo.com - I respond to these much quicker than tweets or the comments section.

Twitter: @vtadave

For the week 8/29 - 9/4

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Clayton Kershaw - SD, @ATL
2. Cliff Lee - @CIN, @FLA
3. Cole Hamels - @CIN, @FLA
4. Tim Lincecum - CHC, ARI
5. Roy Halladay - @FLA
6. Zack Greinke - @HOU
7. Mat Latos - @LAD, COL
8. Hiroki Kuroda - SD, @ATL
9. Dan Hudson - COL, @SF
10. Shaun Marcum - STL, @HOU
11. Johnny Cueto - @STL
12. Matt Garza - @SF
13. Tim Stauffer - @LAD
14. Chris Carpenter - CIN
15. Tim Hudson - WAS
16. Javier Vazquez - @NYM, PHI
17. Ian Kennedy - @SF
18. Madison Bumgarner - CHC
19. Brandon Beachy - WAS
20. Jair Jurrjens - LAD
21. Matt Cain - ARI
22. Ted Lilly - SD
23. Mike Minor - LAD
24. Yovani Gallardo - STL
25. Vance Worley - @CIN
26. Wandy Rodriguez - PIT, MIL
27. Bronson Arroyo - PHI, @STL
28. Jaime Garcia - @MIL, CIN (scuffling this month)
29. Roy Oswalt - @CIN
30. Chad Billingsley - @PIT
31. Cory Luebke - COL
32. Derek Lowe - WAS, LAD
33. Ryan Dempster - PIT
34. Ryan Vogelsong - CHC
35. Chris Capuano - FLA
36. Randy Wolf - STL
37. Charlie Morton - @HOU, @CHC
38. Anibal Sanchez - @NYM
39. Ross Detwiler - NYM
40. James McDonald - @HOU
41. Nathan Eovaldi - @ATL
42. R.A. Dickey - FLA
43. Chris Narveson - @HOU
44. Jake Westbrook - @MIL
45. Josh Collmenter - COL, @SF
46. Jhoulys Chacin - @SD (19 hits in last 11 IP)

Borderline Depending on League Format

47. Edwin Jackson - @MIL
48. Ricky Nolasco - @NYM, PHI
49. Alex White - @ARI, @SD
50. Randy Wells - @SF, PIT
51. Jeff Karstens - LAD
52. Mike Pelfrey - FLA, @WAS
53. Bud Norris - MIL
54. Chien-Ming Wang - @ATL
55. Esmil Rogers - @ARI
56. Wade LeBlanc - @LAD
57. Brad Lincoln - @CHC
58. Aaron Harang - COL
59. Brad Peacock - NYM (tentative)
60. Homer Bailey - PHI, @STL
61. Henry Sosa - PIT
62. Wade Miley - COL
63. Mike Leake - PHI
64. Brett Myers - MIL
65. Kevin Millwood - @SD

Extreme Caution Advised

66. John Lannan - @ATL
67. Dontrelle Willis - PHI
68. Joe Saunders - @SF
69. Chris Volstad - @NYM, PHI
70. Livan Hernandez - @ATL, NYM
71. Rodrigo Lopez - @SF
72. Kyle Lohse - CIN
73. Aaron Cook - @ARI
74. Jonathan Sanchez - ARI
75. Dillon Gee - @WAS
76. Ross Ohlendorf - @HOU, @CHC
77. Clay Hensley - @NYM
78. Undecided Mets No. 1 - FLA
79. Undecided Mets No. 2 - FLA
80. Casey Coleman - PIT
81. J.A. Happ - PIT

Notes:
It sounds like we won't see Johan Santana (shoulder) this year, as it's approaching September and a couple setbacks have Santana simply running out of time to return. ... J.A. Happ replaces Jordan Lyles in the Houston rotation this week after Happ posted a 1.50 ERA and 16:9 K:BB in 18 Triple-A innings. Avoid Happ like the plague, even against the Pirates this week. ... Miguel Batista is a top candidate to start on Monday for the Mets, but considering the 40-year-old had a 1.54 WHIP in Triple-A, he's to be avoided. Of course you know that, but I figured folks would want to know that yes, Miguel Batista is still around. ... Tommy Hanson has a partial tear of his rotator cuff that will keep him out until probably mid-September. It's not a serious injury and hopefully not a precursor of things to coming in his promising career. ... Eric Surkamp is getting a spot start Saturday (8/27) for the Giants, and if he pitches well, Jonathan Sanchez's job may be in jeopardy. Surkamp had a 2.02 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 23 Double-A starts this year and is probably the Giants' top pitching prospect now that Zack Wheeler is in New York. ... With a 2.03 ERA, Johnny Cueto has a chance to be the first starting pitcher to record a sub-2.00 ERA since Roger Clemens' 1.87 in 2005. Cueto, however, has a so-so 86:43 K:BB in 133.1 innings, so I'd say the odds are against it happening. ... Since the All-Star break, Rafael Betancourt hasn't allowed a run in 16.2 innings with a 28:1 K:BB. I know he's not a starting pitcher, but that's pretty amazing. ... Dillon Gee's stuff is merely average, so it's not surprising that his results have taken a nosedive. Gee has a 5.77 ERA and 25:23 K:BB in 39 innings since the All-Star break. ... Most unlikely start of the year in the NL? Maybe Chris Capuano's two-hit 13-strikeout night against the Braves on Friday. ... Ricky Nolasco has allowed 60 hits in his last 38.1 innings. His K/9 rates the last three years: 9.5, 8.4, 6.7. Not the progress we like to see.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. CC Sabathia - @BAL, TOR
2. Justin Verlander - KC
3. Jered Weaver - MIN
4. Ervin Santana - @SEA, MIN
5. Felix Hernandez - LAA
6. Dan Haren - @SEA
7. Ricky Romero - TB, @NYY
8. Josh Beckett - NYY
9. David Price - BAL
10. Jeremy Hellickson - @TEX, BAL
11. James Shields - @TEX
12. Jon Lester - TEX
13. Max Scherzer - KC, CHW
14. Wade Davis - @TOR, BAL
15. C.J. Wilson - @BOS
16. Jeff Niemann - @TEX
17. Colby Lewis - @BOS
18. Mark Buehrle - MIN, @DET
19. Justin Masterson - @KC
20. Rich Harden - @CLE
21. Gio Gonzalez - @CLE
22. John Danks - @DET
23. Jason Vargas - @OAK
24. Carl Pavano - @LAA
25. Brandon McCarthy - @CLE, SEA
26. Fausto Carmona - OAK
27. Erik Bedard - TEX
28. Doug Fister - KC, CHW
29. Guillermo Moscoso - SEA
30. Phil Hughes - @BOS, TOR
31. Brett Cecil - @BAL, @NYY
32. Jake Peavy - MIN
33. Ubaldo Jimenez - OAK
34. Ivan Nova - @BOS
35. Brandon Morrow - @NYY
36. Michael Pineda - @OAK
37. David Huff - OAK, @KC

Borderline Depending on League Format

38. Bruce Chen - CLE
39. Zach Stewart - MIN
40. Jeanmar Gomez - OAK, @KC
41. Felipe Paulino - @DET
42. Jeremy Guthrie - NYY, @TB
43. Luke Hochevar - @DET, CLE
44. Derek Holland - TB
45. Alexi Ogando - TB
46. Jerome Williams - @SEA, MIN (tentative after relief appearance Friday)
47. Zach Britton - TOR
48. Bartolo Colon - TOR
49. Blake Beavan - LAA, @OAK
50. Henderson Alvarez - @BAL
51. Jo-Jo Reyes - TOR, @TB
52. Matt Harrison - TB, @BOS
53. Andrew Miller - NYY
54. Rick Porcello - KC
55. Luis Perez - @BAL

Extreme Caution Advised

56. Anthony Swarzak - @CHW
57. Tim Wakefield - TEX
58. Trevor Cahill - @CLE, SEA
59. Danny Duffy - @DET
60. Charlie Furbush - LAA
61. Tommy Hunter - TOR
62. Jeff Francis - @DET, CLE
63. Kevin Slowey - @CHW, @LAA
64. Brian Matusz - @TB
65. John Lackey - NYY
66. Gavin Floyd - @DET
67. Brad Penny - CHW
68. Anthony Vasquez - @LAA
69. Brian Duensing - @LAA
70. Joel Pineiro - @SEA
71. Scott Diamond - @CHW
72. A.J. Burnett - @BOS (pretty sure this start isn't happening)

Notes:
The Rangers are reportedly going to take advantage of off days and move their rotation around to give guys like Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison extra rest. So, when you see Harrison listed as a two-start starter this week, note that as tentative. ... It's a little odd that the Indians aren't disclosing the nature of Josh Tomlin's injury, but it sounds like he could be headed to the DL. With Carlos Carrasco (elbow) out until September, expect the Indians to rely on David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez for the final two rotation spots. Zach McAllister is probably option No. 3. ... Andrew Miller's 6.1 shutout innings in Texas on Thursday may be the surprise start of the year considering the environment, opponent and the fact that Miller carried a 1.81 WHIP into that outing. Miller reportedly made an adjustment in his delivery this month that could be a reason for the results. ... Jeff Francis' road to 20 losses hit a bump on Thursday as the lefty went into Toronto and beat the Blue Jays to improve to 5-14. He'll try and turn things around this week against Detroit and Cleveland. ... The Red Sox have off days Sunday and Monday, so I'm not quite sure what they do with their rotation. Andrew Miller deserves another start, and Tim Wakefield is still an option, so might the Red Sox go with a six-man rotation this week? ... It seemed inevitable, but Francisco Liriano hit the DL on Thursday with a shoulder strain. He could return as early as mid-September, but don't expect much fantasy value the rest of the way. ... James Shields notched his 10th complete game of the season and surpassed 200 innings before the calendar turned to August. With Matt Moore waiting in Triple-A, the Rays could shop Shields for a king's ransom this winter. Think the Yankees would deal Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos for a top-of-the-rotation starter they can control through 2014? ... The Mariners will reportedly stick with a six-man rotation, with Anthony Vasquez getting a longer look in the rotation.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - SD, @ATL
2. Cliff Lee - @CIN, @FLA
3. CC Sabathia - @BAL, TOR
4. Cole Hamels - @CIN, @FLA
5. Tim Lincecum - CHC, ARI
6. Roy Halladay - @FLA
7. Justin Verlander - KC
8. Jered Weaver - MIN
9. Zack Greinke - @HOU
10. Mat Latos - @LAD, COL
11. Ervin Santana - @SEA, MIN
12. Felix Hernandez - LAA
13. Hiroki Kuroda - SD, @ATL
14. Dan Haren - @SEA
15. Dan Hudson - COL, @SF
16. Shaun Marcum - STL, @HOU
17. Ricky Romero - TB, @NYY
18. Johnny Cueto - @STL
19. Matt Garza - @SF
20. Tim Stauffer - @LAD
21. Josh Beckett - NYY
22. David Price - BAL
23. Jeremy Hellickson - @TEX, BAL
24. James Shields - @TEX
25. Jon Lester - TEX
26. Max Scherzer - KC, CHW
27. Chris Carpenter - CIN
28. Tim Hudson - WAS
29. Javier Vazquez - @NYM, PHI
30. Wade Davis - @TOR, BAL
31. Ian Kennedy - @SF
32. Madison Bumgarner - CHC
33. Brandon Beachy - WAS
34. C.J. Wilson - @BOS
35. Jeff Niemann - @TEX
36. Jair Jurrjens - LAD
37. Colby Lewis - @BOS
38. Mark Buehrle - MIN, @DET
39. Justin Masterson - @KC
40. Rich Harden - @CLE
41. Matt Cain - ARI
42. Ted Lilly - SD
43. Mike Minor - LAD
44. Yovani Gallardo - STL
45. Vance Worley - @CIN
46. Wandy Rodriguez - PIT, MIL
47. Gio Gonzalez - @CLE
48. John Danks - @DET
49. Bronson Arroyo - PHI, @STL
50. Jaime Garcia - @MIL, CIN (scuffling this month)
51. Roy Oswalt - @CIN
52. Chad Billingsley - @PIT
53. Cory Luebke - COL
54. Derek Lowe - WAS, LAD
55. Ryan Dempster - PIT
56. Ryan Vogelsong - CHC
57. Chris Capuano - FLA
58. Randy Wolf - STL
59. Jason Vargas - @OAK
60. Charlie Morton - @HOU, @CHC
61. Anibal Sanchez - @NYM
62. Ross Detwiler - NYM
63. Carl Pavano - @LAA
64. James McDonald - @HOU
65. Brandon McCarthy - @CLE, SEA
66. Fausto Carmona - OAK
67. Erik Bedard - TEX
68. Doug Fister - KC, CHW
69. Guillermo Moscoso - SEA
70. Phil Hughes - @BOS, TOR
71. Brett Cecil - @BAL, @NYY
72. Jake Peavy - MIN
73. Ubaldo Jimenez - OAK
74. Nathan Eovaldi - @ATL
75. Ivan Nova - @BOS
76. Brandon Morrow - @NYY
77. Michael Pineda - @OAK
78. David Huff - OAK, @KC
79. R.A. Dickey - FLA
80. Chris Narveson - @HOU
81. Jake Westbrook - @MIL
82. Josh Collmenter - COL, @SF
83. Jhoulys Chacin - @SD (19 hits in last 11 IP)
84. Edwin Jackson - @MIL
85. Ricky Nolasco - @NYM, PHI
86. Alex White - @ARI, @SD
87. Bruce Chen - CLE
88. Randy Wells - @SF, PIT
89. Jeff Karstens - LAD
90. Mike Pelfrey - FLA, @WA
91. Zach Stewart - MIN
92. Jeanmar Gomez - OAK, @KC
93. Felipe Paulino - @DET
94. Jeremy Guthrie - NYY, @TB
95. Luke Hochevar - @DET, CLE
96. Derek Holland - TB
97. Alexi Ogando - TB
98. Bud Norris - MIL
99. Chien-Ming Wang - @ATL
100. Esmil Rogers - @ARI

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.

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