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Pitching Value Meter: Read to Return, Finally

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Quick hits for the week:

Big news? Johan Santana appears set to return this week. Expectations should be tempered, but since he's Johan Santana, it's worth watching how he looks in his first start of 2011.

Placed several NFL bets this week. Like the Panthers +7 against Arizona, Jets -4 at Dallas, and I think the Colts cover the 9.5 against the Texans. I usually do better in college football where I like TCU to beat Air Force, Stanford and Oregon to cover 20-plus spreads against Duke and Nevada, respectively, and Utah to cover the nine against USC.

Good to know that if I ever get in economic trouble, all I have to do to get out of it is run up my credit cards. Oops, politics has no place here.

Expect teams to shuffle their rotations a bit this week to look at potential 2012 options. I'm forecasting a handful of teams going with six-man rotations.

Check out Drew Pomeranz's debut for the Rockies on Sunday. He alone could make the Ubaldo Jimenez trade a huge win for Colorado.

Email: vtadave@yahoo.com - I respond to these much quicker than tweets or the comments section.

Twitter: @vtadave

For the week Sept. 12-18

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Cole Hamels - @HOU, STL
2. Roy Halladay - @HOU
3. Cliff Lee - FLA
4. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
5. Zack Greinke - COL
6. Ian Kennedy - @LAD
7. Matt Cain - SD, @COL
8. Dan Hudson - @LAD
9. Tim Lincecum - SD
10. Stephen Strasburg - FLA
11. Roy Oswalt - @HOU, STL
12. Brandon Beachy - FLA, NYM
13. Johnny Cueto - CHC, MIL
14. Shaun Marcum - @CIN
15. Chris Carpenter - @PIT
16. Javier Vazquez - @WAS
17. Vance Worley - STL
18. Mat Latos - @SF
19. Ryan Dempster - @CIN, HOU
20. Tim Hudson - NYM
21. Matt Garza - HOU
22. Yovani Gallardo - @CIN
23. Mike Leake - CHC, MIL
24. Madison Bumgarner - @COL
25. Randy Wolf - @CIN
26. Ryan Vogelsong - @COL
27. Aaron Harang - @SF, ARI
28. Ted Lilly - ARI, PIT
29. Eric Surkamp - SD, @COL
30. Mike Minor - FLA
31. Hiroki Kuroda - PIT
32. John Lannan - @NYM
33. Drew Pomeranz - SF
34. Randy Wells - @CIN
35. R.A. Dickey - WAS, @ATL
36. Randall Delgado - FLA
37. Josh Collmenter - @SD
38. Jhoulys Chacin - SF
39. Edwin Jackson - @PIT
40. Dillon Gee - WAS, @ATL
41. Joe Saunders - @LAD, @SD
42. Cory Luebke - @SF
43. Wandy Rodriguez - @CHC
44. Homer Bailey - CHC
45. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
46. Jaime Garcia - @PHI
47. Ricky Nolasco - @ATL

Borderline Depending on League Format

48. Bronson Arroyo - MIL
49. Brett Myers - PHI, @CHC
50. Bud Norris - PHI, @CHC
51. Kyle Lohse - @PIT, @PHI (bench for start No. 2, if possible)
52. Chad Billingsley - ARI, PIT
53. Rodrigo Lopez - @CIN, HOU
54. Derek Lowe - NYM
55. Henry Sosa - @CHC
56. James McDonald - @LAD
57. Wade Miley - @SD
58. Tim Stauffer - ARI
59. Chris Narveson - COL
60. Brad Lincoln - STL, @LAD
61. Dana Eveland - PIT
62. Dontrelle Willis - MIL
63. Chien-ming Wang - @NYM, FLA
64. Chris Capuano - @ATL
65. Casey Coleman - @CIN
66. Kyle Kendrick - FLA
67. Mike Pelfrey - WAS
68. Johan Santana - WAS
69. Kevin Millwood - @MIL

Extreme Caution Advised

70. Esmil Rogers - @MIL, SF
71. Chris Volstad - @ATL, @WAS
72. Tom Milone - @NYM
73. Alex White - SF
74. Wade LeBlanc - ARI
75. Ross Detwiler - @NYM, FLA
76. Jeff Locke - @LAD
77. Charlie Morton - @LAD
78. J.A. Happ - PHI
79. Jake Westbrook - @PHI
80. Brad Hand - @ATL, @WAS
81. Brian Burres - STL
82. Ross Ohlendorf - STL
83. Alex Sanabia - @PHI

Notes: Drew Pomeranz
makes his big league debut this weekend, marking an ultra-quick rise from being a first-round pick of the Indians last year to entering the Rockies rotation in 2011. He gets the Giants in start No. 2 this week, so if you need another arm, this is a guy with very good upside. He'll replace Aaron Cook in the rotation. ... It sounds like Julio Teheran is destined for the bullpen for the rest of this year despite notching the win in his last start, but he could be called on again if someone gets hurt. ... Chris Schwinden allowed five runs in five innings in his Milwaukee debut, and that's probably about all you should expect from him. ... Ross Detwiler's spot has been skipped, so I'm not quite sure how the Washington rotation will slot this week. Probably all you need to know is that Stephen Strasburg gets another home start - vs. Florida. ... Chad Billingsley has a 5.17 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break, making him a risky play. Billingsley's stuff still looks OK, but his location has just been brutal. He'll turn it around, but when? ... Zack Greinke has a 2.42 ERA since the All-Star break, and with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum, the Brewers are a real threat to the Phillies to represent the NL in the World Series. ... Gallardo has allowed six homers in his last two starts, both against St. Louis. I'd still use him this week and hope that was a fluke. ...Jeff Locke is getting a look for the Pirates on Saturday (9/10). He isn't any sort of savior (that's Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon), but he did have a decent 8.1 K/9 in the minors, and he's left-handed. ... Unless Dontrelle Willis is unexpectedly bumped from the rotation, the Reds appears set to roll with a six-man rotation down the stretch. Edinson Volquez has been called up after putting up a 2.37 ERA and impressive (especially for him) 3.0 BB/9 in Triple-A. He could be a decent NL-only filler. ... Numbers game: Last five GS BB/9: Clayton Kershaw - 1.18, Javier Vazquez - 0.79, Brandon Beachy - 1.6 (with an 11.5 K/9).

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - @CHW, @OAK
2. David Price - @BAL, @BOS
3. Jered Weaver - @OAK
4. CC Sabathia - @TOR
5. Dan Haren - @BAL
6. Felix Hernandez - NYY
7. James Shields - @BOS
8. Justin Masterson - @TEX, @MIN
9. C.J. Wilson - @SEA
10. Doug Fister - @OAK
11. Jon Lester - TB
12. Ervin Santana - @BAL
13. Max Scherzer - @OAK
14. Josh Beckett - TB
15. Gio Gonzalez - LAA, DET
16. Derek Holland - CLE, @SEA
17. John Danks - DET, @KC
18. Ivan Nova - @SEA
19. Jerome Williams - @OAK
20. Ubaldo Jimenez - @MIN
21. Ricky Romero - @BOS
22. Zach Stewart - @KC
23. Gavin Floyd - DET
24. Matt Harrison - @SEA
25. Luke Hochevar - MIN
26. Philip Humber - @KC
27. Wade Davis - @BAL
28. Brandon McCarthy - LAA
29. Colby Lewis - CLE
30. Jake Peavy - DET
31. Carl Pavano - @KC
32. Mark Buehrle - @KC
33. Erik Bedard - TB (check status)
34. Guillermo Moscoso - LAA, DET
35. Jeremy Guthrie - TB
36. Jeremy Hellickson - @BOS

Borderline Depending on League Format

37. Rick Porcello - @CHW, @OAK
38. Joel Pineiro - @OAK, @BAL
39. Kevin Slowey - CLE
40. Anthony Swarzak - CLE
41. Trevor Cahill - DET
42. Liam Hendriks - @KC
43. Rich Harden - DET
44. Phil Hughes - @SEA
45. Brett Cecil - NYY
46. Michael Pineda - TEX
47. Zach Britton - TB, LAA
48. Jeff Niemann - @BAL, @BOS
49. Tim Wakefield - TOR, TB
50. Bruce Chen - MIN, CHW
51. David Huff - @TEX

Extreme Caution Advised

52. A.J. Burnett - @SEA
53. Jason Vargas - NYY
54. Brandon Morrow - @BOS
55. Alexi Ogando - CLE
56. Jeff Francis - CHW
57. Charlie Furbush - NYY
58. Bartolo Colon - @TOR
59. Brad Penny - @CHW
60. Fausto Carmona - @MIN
61. Jeanmar Gomez - @TEX
62. John Lackey - TOR
63. Danny Duffy - CHW
64. Henderson Alvarez - NYY
65. Felipe Paulino - CHW
66. Tommy Hunter - LAA
67. Jo-Jo Reyes - LAA
68. Alfredo Simon - TB
69. Freddy Garcia - @TOR
70. Dustin McGowan - NYY
71. Brian Duensing - CLE
72. Blake Beavan - TEX
73. Anthony Vasquez - TEX

Notes:
It sounds like Josh Beckett (ankle) will be ready this week. I'll go ahead and slot him in for one start, but keep an eye on his progress. ... Andrew Miller has now struggled in back-to-back starts, making him the likely candidate to get the boot once Beckett returns. ... It appears Jake Peavy's final start of 2011 will come Monday, as Peavy is apparently dealing with some nagging injuries. He tossed 6.1 scoreless innings in his last start, but the White Sox may choose to exercise caution and use both Zach Stewart and Philip Humber on regular rest this month. ... Jerome Williams has been fantastic for the Angels, posting a 19:4 K:BB in 25.2 innings. Makes you wonder where the Angels would be in the standings if they'd utilized him over Tyler Chatwood earlier in the season. ... It appears that if injured Twins starters Scott Baker (elbow) and Francisco Liriano (shoulder) return at all this year it will be in relief. That's your cue to dump them in redraft leagues. ... It appears Michael Pineda's final 2011 start will come this week. Also with the Mariners, Anthony Vasquez has been awful, but they may have him make at least another couple starts. We'll see. I'm projecting a six-man rotations this week, which would mean just one start for Felix Hernandez, but I can see things changing and him getting two. Either way, you're using Felix, I would hope. ... Erik Bedard was scratched from his start Friday due to a couple nagging injuries. His status is up in the air for this week, with Andrew Miller as Plan B. ... Clay Buchholz (back) could return for a start or two before the end of the year, allowing the Sox to figure out their playoff rotation. ... Doug Fister's K/9 sits at just 5.9, so how to explain the 13 strikeouts against the Indians? Well how about the fact that the Cleveland hitters lead the AL in strikeouts?

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Justin Verlander - @CHW, @OAK
2. Cole Hamels - @HOU, STL
3. Roy Halladay - @HOU
4. David Price - @BAL, @BOS
5. Cliff Lee - FLA
6. Jered Weaver - @OAK
7. CC Sabathia - @TOR
8. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
9. Zack Greinke - COL
10. Ian Kennedy - @LAD
11. Dan Haren - @BAL
12. Matt Cain - SD, @COL
13. Dan Hudson - @LAD
14. Tim Lincecum - SD
15. Felix Hernandez - NYY
16. Stephen Strasburg - FLA
17. James Shields - @BOS
18. Justin Masterson - @TEX, @MIN
19. Roy Oswalt - @HOU, STL
20. Brandon Beachy - FLA, NYM
21. Johnny Cueto - CHC, MIL
22. C.J. Wilson - @SEA
23. Doug Fister - @OAK
24. Shaun Marcum - @CIN
25. Chris Carpenter - @PIT
26. Jon Lester - TB
27. Javier Vazquez - @WAS
28. Vance Worley - STL
29. Ervin Santana - @BAL
30. Mat Latos - @SF
31. Ryan Dempster - @CIN, HOU
32. Max Scherzer - @OAK
33. Tim Hudson - NYM
34. Josh Beckett - TB
35. Gio Gonzalez - LAA, DET
36. Derek Holland - CLE, @SEA
37. John Danks - DET, @KC
38. Matt Garza - HOU
39. Yovani Gallardo - @CIN
40. Mike Leake - CHC, MIL
41. Ivan Nova - @SEA
42. Jerome Williams - @OAK
43. Madison Bumgarner - @COL
44. Randy Wolf - @CIN
45. Ubaldo Jimenez - @MIN
46. Ricky Romero - @BOS
47. Ryan Vogelsong - @COL
48. Aaron Harang - @SF, ARI
49. Ted Lilly - ARI, PIT
50. Eric Surkamp - SD, @COL
51. Mike Minor - FLA
52. Zach Stewart - @KC
53. Hiroki Kuroda - PIT
54. John Lannan - @NYM
55. Drew Pomeranz - SF
56. Gavin Floyd - DET
57. Randy Wells - @CIN
58. R.A. Dickey - WAS, @ATL
59. Randall Delgado - FLA
60. Josh Collmenter - @SD
61. Matt Harrison - @SEA
62. Jhoulys Chacin - SF
63. Edwin Jackson - @PIT
64. Dillon Gee - WAS, @ATL
65. Joe Saunders - @LAD, @SD
66. Cory Luebke - @SF
67. Luke Hochevar - MIN
68. Philip Humber - @KC
69. Wandy Rodriguez - @CHC
70. Wade Davis - @BAL
71. Homer Bailey - CHC
72. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
73. Jaime Garcia - @PHI
74. Brandon McCarthy - LAA
75. Colby Lewis - CLE
76. Jake Peavy - DET
77. Ricky Nolasco - @ATL
78. Carl Pavano - @KC
79. Mark Buehrle - @KC
80. Erik Bedard - TB (check status)
81. Guillermo Moscoso - LAA, DET
82. Jeremy Guthrie - TB
83. Jeremy Hellickson - @BOS
84. Bronson Arroyo - MIL
85. Brett Myers - PHI, @CHC
86. Bud Norris - PHI, @CHC
87. Kyle Lohse - @PIT, @PHI (bench for start No. 2, if possible)
88. Chad Billingsley - ARI, PIT
89. Rick Porcello - @CHW, @OAK
90. Joel Pineiro - @OAK, @BAL
91. Rodrigo Lopez - @CIN, HOU
92. Derek Lowe - NYM
93. Henry Sosa - @CHC
94. James McDonald - @LAD
95. Kevin Slowey - CLE
96. Anthony Swarzak - CLE
97. Trevor Cahill - DET
98. Wade Miley - @SD
99. Liam Hendriks - @KC
100. Rich Harden - DET

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.