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Pitching Value Meter: Cy Young Race

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.


Quick hits for the week:

I find the NL Cy Young race fascinating. There are really three obvious candidates:

Roy Halladay - 18 wins, 2.34 ERA, 211 strikeouts, 30 walks, 219.2 innings
Clayton Kershaw - 19 wins, 2.30 ERA, 236 strikeouts, 56 walks, 218.2 innings
Cliff Lee - 16 wins, 2.38 ERA, 223 strikeouts, 42 walks, 219.2 innings

All three have at least five complete games, with Lee and his six shutouts standing out.

I could see Craig Kimbrel finishing in the top-10 along with guys like Ian Kennedy, Tim Lincecum, and Cole Hamels, but these are the easy top three. Halladay has the advantage in his control with the 30 walks, while Kershaw has a decent-sized advantage in strikeouts. One has to wonder how the voting will play out with two of the pitchers being on the same team. This one looks like it will come down to the wire.

Sleeper (potential) two-start starter:
Travis Wood, CIN - I'm assuming Wood gets the nod to replace Mike Leake (innings limit), and with starts at home against the Astros and on the road in Pittsburgh, Wood could have some value this week.

Email: vtadave@yahoo.com - I respond to these much quicker than tweets or the comments section.

Twitter: @vtadave

For the week Sept. 19-25

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Roy Halladay - STL, @NYM
2. Cliff Lee - STL, @NYM
3. Clayton Kershaw - SF, @SD
4. Cole Hamels - @NYM
5. Ian Kennedy - PIT, SF
6. Zack Greinke - FLA
7. Shaun Marcum - @CHC, FLA
8. Tim Lincecum - @LAD, @ARI
9. Chris Carpenter - CHC
10. Madison Bumgarner - @LAD
11. Javier Vazquez - ATL
12. Vance Worley - WAS
13. Yovani Gallardo - FLA
14. Dan Hudson - PIT
15. Jaime Garcia - NYM
16. Ryan Vogelsong - @LAD
17. Brandon Beachy - @WAS
18. Roy Oswalt - WAS
19. Matt Cain - @ARI
20. Tim Hudson - @WAS
21. Mike Minor - @FLA
22. Randall Delgado - @FLA
23. Matt Garza - MIL
24. Homer Bailey - HOU
25. Randy Wolf - @CHC
26. Mat Latos - @COL
27. Anibal Sanchez - ATL
28. Cory Luebke - @COL, LAD
29. Hiroki Kuroda - SF
30. Ricky Nolasco - ATL, @MIL
31. Ryan Dempster - @STL
32. Edwin Jackson - NYM
33. Aaron Harang - LAD
34. Tommy Hanson - @WAS
35. Bronson Arroyo - HOU
36. Jake Westbrook - NYM
37. Kevin Millwood - SD, @HOU
38. Eric Surkamp - @ARI
39. Stephen Strasburg - ATL
40. Bud Norris - @CIN, COL
41. Kyle Lohse - @PHI, CHC
42. Joe Saunders - SF
43. Jhoulys Chacin - SD
44. Drew Pomeranz - @HOU
45. Ted Lilly - SF
46. Wandy Rodriguez - @CIN
47. Travis Wood - HOU, @PIT
48. Josh Collmenter - SF
49. Chad Billingsley - @SD

Borderline depending on league format

50. James McDonald - CIN
51. Brett Myers - COL
52. Tim Stauffer - @COL
53. Chris Capuano - @STL
54. Randy Wells - MIL
55. Charlie Morton - @ARI
56. Dontrelle Willis - @PIT
57. Wade Miley - PIT
58. Derek Lowe - @FLA
59. Kyle Kendrick - WAS
60. Edinson Volquez - @PIT
61. Chien-ming Wang - @PHI, ATL
62. Brad Peacock - @PHI
63. J.A. Happ - @CIN, COL
64. Brad Lincoln - CIN
65. Casey Coleman - MIL, @STL
66. R.A. Dickey - PHI
67. Dillon Gee - PHI
68. John Lannan - @PHI
69. Chris Narveson - @CHC
70. Aaron Cook - SD
71. Mike Pelfrey - @STL, PHI
72. Wade LeBlanc - LAD

Extreme caution advised

73. Chris Schwinden - @STL
74. Ross Detwiler - ATL
75. Tim Milone - @PHI
76. Esmil Rogers - @HOU
77. Ross Ohlendorf - @ARI
78. Alex White - @HOU
79. Jeff Locke - CIN
80. Chris Volstad - @MIL
81. Brad Hand - @MIL
82. Rodrigo Lopez - @STL
83. Henry Sosa - COL
84. Jeff Karstens - @ARI
85. Dana Eveland - @SD

Notes:
Johnny Cueto is dealing with a strained lat that could have his season in doubt. He is hopefully of making at least one more start, but it won't come this week. ... Joe Torre did the right thing in not suspending Clayton Kershaw, though Kershaw obviously deserved to get tossed over his plunking of Gerardo "Punk" Parra. ... Homer Bailey quietly has a 3.71 ERA since the All-Star break, and is coming off a nine-strikeout outing. His stock is up. ... Johan Santana (shoulder) has run out of time in his rehab and is officially done for the year. Maybe keep him for a couple bucks in keeper leagues, but if he returns anywhere near his former Cy Young form, I'd be shocked. ... Tommy Hanson (shoulder) should get one more start this week. I'm slotting him in for a start against the Nationals. ... Jeff Karstens is limping to the finish and could find himself shut down this week. I'd look elsewhere for pitching help.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. CC Sabathia - MIN, BOS
2. Justin Verlander - BAL
3. Jered Weaver - OAK
4. Dan Haren - @TOR
5. James Shields - @NYY
6. Derek Holland - @OAK, SEA
7. Josh Beckett - BAL
8. David Price - TOR
9. Ervin Santana - @TOR
10. Felix Hernandez - @TEX
11. C.J. Wilson - @OAK
12. Doug Fister - BAL
13. Jon Lester - @NYY
14. Erik Bedard - BAL
15. Ricky Romero - LAA, @TB
16. Max Scherzer - @KC
17. Michael Pineda - @MIN
18. Alexi Ogando - @OAK
19. Ubaldo Jimenez - CHW
20. Jerome Williams - @TOR, OAK
21. Matt Harrison - SEA
22. Jason Vargas - @MIN
23. Colby Lewis - SEA
24. Wade Davis - @NYY, TOR
25. Zach Stewart - KC
26. Justin Masterson - MIN
27. Ivan Nova - TB
28. Gavin Floyd - @CLE, KC
29. Carl Pavano - @NYY, @CLE
30. Brandon McCarthy - TEX
31. Bartolo Colon - TB
32. Philip Humber - @CLE
33. Jeremy Hellickson - @NYY
34. Jeremy Guthrie - @BOS, @DET
35. David Huff - SEA, MIN
36. Anthony Swarzak - SEA
37. Guillermo Moscoso - @LAA
38. Gio Gonzalez - @LAA

Borderline depending on league format

39. Phil Hughes - BOS
40. Scott Diamond - @CLE
41. Brett Cecil - LAA
42. Dylan Axelrod - @CLE
43. Rick Porcello - BAL
44. Rich Harden - TEX, @LAA
45. Zach Britton - @DET
46. Henderson Alvarez - LAA
47. Jeanmar Gomez - CHW
48. Charlie Furbush - @CLE, @TEX
49. Joel Pineiro - @TOR, OAK
50. Mark Buehrle - @CLE
51. Felipe Paulino - DET
52. Bruce Chen - @CHW
53. Brandon Morrow - LAA, @TB
54. Liam Hendriks - SEA, @CLE
55. Kevin Slowey - SEA
56. John Danks - KC
57. Brad Penny - @KC, BAL
58. Dustin McGowan - @TB
59. Trevor Cahill - TEX
60. A.J. Burnett - TB, BOS
61. Jeff Niemann - @NYY
62. Blake Beavan - @MIN
63. Tommy Hunter - @BOS

Extreme caution advised

64. Undecided - @BOS
65. Jo-Jo Reyes - @DET
66. Alfredo Simon - @BOS, @DET
67. John Lackey - BAL, @NYY
68. Andrew Miller - BAL
69. Tim Wakefield - @NYY
70. Freddy Garcia - BOS
71. Undecided - TOR
72. Fausto Carmona - CHW, MIN
73. Undecided CLE - CHW
74. Josh Tomlin - MIN
75. Undecided KC - DET
76. Undecided KC - @CHW
77. Everett Teaford - @CHW
78. Brian Duensing - @CLE
79. Anthony Vasquez - @TEX

Notes:
Jeff Francis has been shut down due to an innings cap, finishing with 16 losses and a 4.82 ERA. Not the best fantasy season there. ... Jeremy Hellickson was a control freak in the minors, posting a 2.1 BB/9 in 580 innings. He's got a 2.49 ERA since the break, but if he can get his control turned around, he could be an All-Star. ... Hopefully this doesn't ruin your fantasy team, but Luke Hochevar has been shut down after tossing 198 innings of 4.68 ERA ball. He'll never be the No. 1 starter the Royals hoped they'd drafted No. 1 overall, but a long career as an innings-eater type looks likely. ... The Rays are going to need a starter for Wednesday's doubleheader. It could be Matt Moore if the Rays are still close to a playoff spot by then, but otherwise, we're looking at an uninspiring option such as Cesar Ramos. ... Brett Cecil could be shut down due to innings concerns. ... Dylan Axelrod's first big league start (vs. DET) went quite well: 6-6-2-2-2-8. He's a decent play this week in Cleveland. ... The Royals rotation has a guy named Everett Teaford? Really? Did his job as a butler for the Royal Family not work out? ... Michael Pineda's last start is scheduled for Wednesday. A couple more innings from Pineda and he'll find himself on 2012 Verducci candidate lists. ... Luis Mendoza and Vincent Mazzaro are options for the Royals this week, but they shouldn't be options for you. ... Josh Tomlin is going to be limited to a maximum of four innings in his Sept. 24 start, so he's probably useless this week.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Roy Halladay - STL, @NYM
2. Cliff Lee - STL, @NYM
3. Clayton Kershaw - SF, @SD
4. CC Sabathia - MIN, BOS
5. Justin Verlander - BAL
6. Jered Weaver - OAK
7. Cole Hamels - @NYM
8. Ian Kennedy - PIT, SF
9. Dan Haren - @TOR
10. Zack Greinke - FLA
11. Shaun Marcum - @CHC, FLA
12. James Shields - @NYY
13. Tim Lincecum - @LAD, @ARI
14. Chris Carpenter - CHC
15. Madison Bumgarner - @LAD
16. Derek Holland - @OAK, SEA
17. Javier Vazquez - ATL
18. Josh Beckett - BAL
19. Vance Worley - WAS
20. Yovani Gallardo - FLA
21. Dan Hudson - PIT
22. David Price - TOR
23. Jaime Garcia - NYM
24. Ryan Vogelsong - @LAD
25. Brandon Beachy - @WAS
26. Ervin Santana - @TOR
27. Felix Hernandez - @TEX
28. C.J. Wilson - @OAK
29. Doug Fister - BAL
30. Roy Oswalt - WAS
31. Matt Cain - @ARI
32. Jon Lester - @NYY
33. Erik Bedard - BAL
34. Ricky Romero - LAA, @TB
35. Tim Hudson - @WAS
36. Max Scherzer - @KC
37. Mike Minor - @FLA
38. Randall Delgado - @FLA
39. Matt Garza - MIL
40. Michael Pineda - @MIN
41. Homer Bailey - HOU
42. Randy Wolf - @CHC
43. Alexi Ogando - @OAK
44. Mat Latos - @COL
45. Anibal Sanchez - ATL
46. Cory Luebke - @COL, LAD
47. Ubaldo Jimenez - CHW
48. Hiroki Kuroda - SF
49. Ricky Nolasco - ATL, @MIL
50. Jerome Williams - @TOR, OAK
51. Ryan Dempster - @STL
52. Edwin Jackson - NYM
53. Matt Harrison - SEA
54. Aaron Harang - LAD
55. Tommy Hanson - @WAS
56. Jason Vargas - @MIN
57. Bronson Arroyo - HOU
58. Jake Westbrook - NYM
59. Colby Lewis - SEA
60. Wade Davis - @NYY, TOR
61. Kevin Millwood - SD, @HOU
62. Zach Stewart - KC
63. Justin Masterson - MIN
64. Ivan Nova - TB
65. Gavin Floyd - @CLE, KC
66. Eric Surkamp - @ARI
67. Stephen Strasburg - ATL
68. Bud Norris - @CIN, COL
69. Carl Pavano - @NYY, @CLE
70. Brandon McCarthy - TEX
71. Bartolo Colon - TB
72. Philip Humber - @CLE
73. Jeremy Hellickson - @NYY
74. Kyle Lohse - @PHI, CHC
75. Jeremy Guthrie - @BOS, @DET
76. David Huff - SEA, MIN
77. Anthony Swarzak - SEA
78. Guillermo Moscoso - @LAA
79. Joe Saunders - SF
80. Jhoulys Chacin - SD
81. Gio Gonzalez - @LAA
82. Drew Pomeranz - @HOU
83. Ted Lilly - SF
84. Wandy Rodriguez - @CIN
85. Travis Wood - HOU, @PIT
86. Josh Collmenter - SF
87. Chad Billingsley - @SD
88. Phil Hughes - BOS
89. Scott Diamond - @CLE
90. Brett Cecil - LAA
91. Dylan Axelrod - @CLE
92. Rick Porcello - BAL
93. Rich Harden - TEX, @LAA
94. Zach Britton - @DET
95. James McDonald - CIN
96. Brett Myers - COL
97. Tim Stauffer - @COL
98. Chris Capuano - @STL
99. Randy Wells - MIL
100. Charlie Morton - @ARI

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.