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Collette Calls: Reviewing Top 100 Prospects

Jason Collette

Jason Collette

Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at theprocessreport.net. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Towers of Power Baseball Hour Podcast on iTunes. He was selected as the Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year by FSWA in 2013.

Before moving forward with the next set of prospect rankings, I think it is a good idea to look back at 2011 and the four rankings that were done throughout the season. An end of season top-100 prospect list will be forthcoming after I make my trip out to the Arizona Fall League in early November because that trip will give me a chance to see more of these guys in live action as well as talk to some of the scouting types that are there who have been watching the players while in the AFL. Moving forward, we will likely be doing just a pre-, mid-, and post-season list because monthly rankings go against the same small sample size behaviors that Jeff, Derek, Dalton, Peter and others preach against throughout the regular season. Monthly rankings can be a bit reactionary by nature and sometimes when I give a guy a shot of helium, it is with the intent to get your attention focused on that player before your leaguemates are. On the other edge of that sword is that some deserving candidates get left off the list while I give others a chance to fail.

It is not an exact science, but where a prospect ranks should be lowest on your list as you are preparing your dynasty lists because skills and opportunity are the name of the game when it comes to prospects in fantasy baseball. Rankings are cute when it comes to trade talks or chatter, but results and opportunity are the name of the game in fantasy baseball. Having multiple highly-ranked prospects are great, but having prospects that produce within a season is free money because you have them on your reserves before your leaguemates get a chance to FAAB them to add to their own roster.

149 different prospects appeared in the four rankings during the 2011 season. By position, the breakdown was:

1B: 11
2B: 7
SS: 15
3B: 12
OF: 30
C: 11
P: 63

The lack of infield prospects, particularly up the middle, should make you pause when considering giving up prospects in a trade this offseason. In keeper leagues, having these prospects as free keepers is what allows you to take a $1 risk on a guy because you know that your rookie keeper is likely coming up in June. This is no different than what the Indians did this season when they signed Orlando Cabrera as a stopgap until Jason Kipnis was ready.

60 different prospects appeared on each of the four updates to John Sickels' original 2011 list while 89 players either came off the Top-100 list due to in-season promotions to the major leagues, major injuries, or severe production degradation. Injuries or ineffectiveness led to 84 different players moving out of the rankings and receiving a not-ranked (NR) status in either June, July, or August.

The overall Top 100 Rankings Matrix for the season is below:

POSPLAYERORGAverageMayJuneJulyAugust
OFBryce HarperWAS11111
OFMike TroutLAA2222MLB
PMatt MooreTB47322
3BMike MoustakasKC44MLBMLBMLB
PShelby MillerSTL59433
1BEric HosmerKC55MLBMLBMLB
PJulio TeheranATL66665
SSManny MachadoBAL610554
CJesus MonteroNYY731276
OFDesmond JenningsTB91188MLB
2BBrett LawrieTOR101874MLB
2BDustin AckleySEA11129MLBMLB
PManny BanuelosNYY121510149
OFWil MyersKC138131516
3BLonnie ChisenhallCLE141314MLBMLB
2BJason KipnisCLE14161610MLB
PDrew PomeranzCLE152111918
CDevin MesoracoCIN152815117
PJacob TurnerDET16141816MLB
PJameson TaillonPIT1820202013
PMartin PerezTEX1926191317
PJohn LambKC1919NRNRNR
OFBrett JacksonCHC2027222110
PJake OdorizziKC204417128
PDelin BetancesNYY2230232214
PDanny DuffyKC2424MLBMLBMLB
PTyler MatzekCOL2525NRNRNR
PCasey KellySD2637232322
PZach WheelerSF2638242419
PJames PaxtonSEA27NRNR3915
PRandall DelgadoATL2940272720
PArodys VizcainoATL3157341912
SSJurickson ProfarTEX3364381711
PMike MontgomeryKC3517305141
PRobbie ErlinTEX3655333125
PZach LeeLAD3651353226
1BYonder AlonsoCIN37493229MLB
PJarrod ParkerARI3823474537
1BPaul GoldschmidtARI39NR5226MLB
PDeck McGuireTOR3961363327
PJarred CosartPHI4178441823
3BJed GyorkoSD41NR573729
PCarlos MartinezSTL41NRNR4933
OFAaron HicksMIN4239264755
PAlex ColomeTB4262373435
PJordan LylesHOU4242MLBMLBMLB
2BBilly HamiltonCIN4336285751
OFBen RevereMIN4343MLBMLBMLB
OFTim WheelerCOL44NR554334
PNeil RamirezTEX45NR544436
1BAnthony RizzoSD4545MLBMLBMLB
CWilin RosarioCOL4522615543
PMatt HarveyNYM4673413830
SSHak-Ju LeeTB4686492821
SSNick FranklinSEA4729316860
PKyle GibsonMIN4741252598
2BJose AltuveHOU48NR5342MLB
CDerek NorrisWAS4832295871
PWily PeraltaMIL48NRNRNR48
PAnthony RanaudoBOS4869393550
PTyler SkaggsARI4979454031
OFTrayvon RobinsonLAD49714036MLB
3BJames DarnellSD5197513024
OFRey FuentesSD5184464132
PBrody ColvinPHI5250595345
3BNick CastellanosDET5367564839
PTrevor MayPHI53NR676528
SSJose IglesiasBOS5454NRNRNR
PLiam HendriksMIN5485484638
CYasmani GrandalCIN5452635646
1BChris CarterOAK5531666457
3BZack CoxSTL5874426252
PErik SurkampSF59NR605463
OFJaff DeckerSD5976436354
PJoe WielandSD59NRNR7147
OFEngel BeltreTEX5959NRNRNR
SSJonathan VillarHOU6094505244
PStetson AlliePIT60586459NR
PBrad PeacockWAS61NR945040
PTrey McNuttCHC64635870NR
OFJoe BensonMIN64NR696658
CTravis D'ArnaudTOR65NR767642
CGary SanchezNYY6565NRNRNR
PSimon CastroSD6666NRNRNR
OFMichael ChoiceOAK6646817464
CTony SanchezPIT6770706759
PTyler ThornburgMIL68NRNR7362
PJason KnappCLE688749NRNR
PTaijuan WalkerSEA69NRNRNR69
SSGrant GreenOAK7034848577
3BMatt DominguezFLA7080716961
OFBrandon GuyerTB7199736149
1BJonathan SingletonPHI7135809770
2BJean SeguraLAA71336510084
OFOswaldo ArciaMIN7191786056
PAlex TorresTB7148828075
SSDee GordonLAD7272NRNRNR
OFLeonys MartinTEX73NRNR7867
OFDayan ViciedoCHW73NR797565
1BMatt AdamsSTL73NR957253
3BMiguel SanoMIN7453729379
SSZach CozartCIN769062MLBMLB
3BNolan ArenadoCOL7788777766
PChris DwyerKC77478599NR
2BDelino DeShieldsHOU7777NRNRNR
SSJonathan SchoopBAL78NRNR8273
PChris ArcherTB7860689292
PAlex WhiteCOL79NRNR8374
SSTim BeckhamTB79NR838172
PTanner ScheppersTEX79569091NR
SSChristian ColonKC8068868878
PChristian FriedrichCOL81897479NR
OFColin CowgillARI81NR7587MLB
OFCesar PuelloNYM8181NRNRNR
PAndy OliverDET8282MLBMLBMLB
CRyan LavarnwayBOS82NR938668
OFCharlie BlackmonCOL8383MLBMLBMLB
OFGary BrownSF83NRNRNR83
PEdwar CabreraCOL84NR928476
SSWilmer FloresNYM84758889NR
OFStarling MartePIT85NRNRNR85
3BVince CatricalaSEA86NRNRNR86
CSebastian VallePHI87NRNR9480
SSChase D'ArnaudPIT87NR87NRMLB
PAddison ReedCHA87NRNRNR87
OFAnthony GoseTOR88NRNR9581
OFCorey DickersonCOL88NRNRNR88
OFMatt SzczurCHC89NRNR9682
OFBryce BrentzBOS89NRNRNR89
PNathan EovaldiLAD90NRNR90MLB
3BWill MiddlebrooksBOS90NRNRNR90
PDavid PhelpsNYY91NR91NRNR
PAllen WebsterLAD91NRNRNR91
PRubby De La RosaLAD9292MLBMLBMLB
PChad JamesFLA929589NRNR
CWilson RamosWAS9393MLBMLBMLB
OFL.J. HoesBAL93NRNRNR93
1BC.J. CronLAA94NRNRNR94
1BNeftali SotoCIN95NRNRNR95
OFChih-Hsien ChiangSEA96NRNRNR96
PMauricio RoblesSEA9696NRNRNR
3BTaylor GreenMIL97NRNRNR97
1BTyler MooreWAS98NR9798NR
SSMatt LipkaATL9810096NRNR
PKyle McPhersonPIT98NR98NRNR
PAndrew BrackmanNYY9898NRNRNR
OFRobbie GrossmanPIT99NRNRNR99
1BClint RobinsonKC100NR99NR100
PJose CedaFLA100NR100NRNR