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Pitching Value Meter: Everything's Aces

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

There isn't a much better day than Opening Day for one's favorite team. For me that's the Dodgers, and though I had to put up with seeing Frank McCourt's mug on a 52-inch TV, I did like seeing an ex-Laker right next to him.

Saturday is my final fantasy draft in a 10-team NL-only keeper league. My keepers:
Lucroy - $2, Belt - $11, Weeks - $19, Uggla - $17, J.D. Martinez - $2, Kemp - $17, Storen - $10, Kimbrel - $14, Garza - $14, A. Sanchez - $6, Nolasco - $12, Maholm - $2. Minor leaguers are Bryce Harper, Brett Jackson, Billy Hamilton (one HR and one SB in High-A debut) and Zack Cox.

That gives me $134 to spend on 11 positions. I usually like to end up with around 65 percent spent on hitting, and I'm at 54 percent, so I'll target a big bat early. Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez are available and would be great fits, of course, but do I pay the $45 projected price? Maybe instead I target Jed Lowrie and grab an outfielder like Andre Ethier? I honestly won't know until I'm in the flow of the auction, as it's an unpredictable group of owners.

On to pitching ...

For the week April 915.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Clayton Kershaw - PIT, SD
2. Cole Hamels - MIA, NYM
3. Roy Halladay - MIA
4. Cliff Lee - MIA
5. Stephen Strasburg - @NYM
6. Zack Greinke - @CHC
7. Chad Billingsley - PIT, SD
8. Tim Lincecum - @COL
9. Ian Kennedy - @SD
10. Brandon Beachy - @HOU, MIL
11. Tommy Hanson - @HOU
12. Matt Cain - PIT
13. Matt Garza - MIL
14. Yovani Gallardo - @CHC
15. Josh Johnson - @PHI
16. Madison Bumgarner - @COL
17. Mat Latos - @WAS
18. Dan Hudson - @COL
19. Johnny Cueto - STL
20. Gio Gonzalez - CIN
21. Ryan Dempster - MIL
22. Vance Worley - NYM
23. Adam Wainwright - CHC
24. Cory Luebke - ARI
25. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI, HOU
26. Mark Buehrle - @PHI
27. Edwin Jackson - @NYM, CIN
28. Jordan Zimmermann - CIN
29. Kyle Lohse - @CIN
30. Erik Bedard - @LAD
31. Randy Wolf - @ATL
32. Jaime Garcia - @CIN
33. Edinson Volquez - ARI, @LAD
34. Johan Santana - WAS
35. Trevor Cahill - @SD, @COL
36. Shaun Marcum - @CHC, @ATL
37. Jair Jurrjens - MIL
38. Jhoulys Chacin - SF, ARI
39. Ricky Nolasco - HOU
40. Chris Capuano - PIT
41. Mike Minor - MIL
42. Aaron Harang - SD
43. Lance Lynn - CHC
44. Jon Niese - @PHI
45. Wandy Rodriguez - ATL
46. Bud Norris - @MIA
47. Juan Nicasio - ARI
48. Joe Blanton - NYM
49. Bronson Arroyo - @WAS
50. Mike Leake - STL, @WAS

Borderline Depending on League Format

51. Jeff Samardzija - @STL
52. Randall Delgado - @HOU
53. Joe Saunders - @SD
54. Homer Bailey - STL, @WAS
55. R.A. Dickey - @PHI
56. Dustin Moseley - ARI
57. James McDonald - @SF
58. Jeremy Guthrie - SF
59. Dillon Gee - WAS
60. Ted Lilly - SD
61. Clayton Richard - @LAD
62. Ryan Vogelsong - PIT
63. Ross Detwiler - @NYM
64. Chris Volstad - MIL, @STL
65. Drew Pomeranz - ARI
66. Paul Maholm - MIL, @STL
67. Jeff Karstens - @LAD
68. Jake Westbrook - @CIN, CHC
69. Chris Narveson - @CHC, @ATL

Extreme Caution Advised

70. Kevin Correia - @LAD, @SF
71. J.A. Happ - ATL, @MIA
72. Carlos Zambrano - HOU
73. Jamie Moyer - SF
74. Josh Collmenter - @COL
75. Barry Zito - @COL, PIT
76. Lucas Harrell - @MIA
77. Kyle Weiland - ATL
78. Mike Pelfrey - WAS, @PHI
79. Charlie Morton - @SF
80. SD TBD - @LAD

Notes: Trevor Bauer
tossed five scoreless innings in his Double-A 2012 debut, and with Josh Collmenter set to open at home against the Giants and then in Colorado, Bauer might want to start packing. ... Brandon Beachy remains one of my favorite, more underrated pitchers. Just look at that strikeout rate. ... Johan Santana sat in the 87-88 range in his first game since September 2010, but I think he can still be effective. ... Boy did Stephen Strasburg look impressive, hitting 98 on the gun in his first start. Do we really only get 153 more innings from him? ... One fun projected matchup has lefties Jamie Moyer and Madison Bumgarner battling it out in Colorado. One of these things is not like the other. ... Tim Stauffer (triceps) could return as early as April 15, but as that is uncertain, he's not on the list this week. ... Chad Billingsley was very impressive Friday, but keep in mind this was against the Padres. Temper all expectations.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Yu Darvish - SEA, @MIN
2. Justin Verlander - TB
3. C.J. Wilson - @MIN, @NYY
4. Jon Lester - @TOR
5. Felix Hernandez - OAK
6. CC Sabathia - @BAL
7. James Shields - @DET
8. Jered Weaver - @MIN
9. Matt Moore - @DET, @BOS
10. Dan Haren - @MIN
11. David Price - @BOS
12. Josh Beckett - TB
13. John Danks - @CLE
14. Bartolo Colon - @SEA
15. Justin Masterson - CHW
16. Doug Fister - @CHW
17. Ervin Santana - @NYY
18. Brandon McCarthy - KC
19. Derek Holland - SEA
20. Ivan Nova - @BAL, LAA
21. Ricky Romero - BOS
22. Neftali Feliz - SEA, @MIN
23. Gavin Floyd - DET
24. Max Scherzer - @CHW
25. Colby Lewis - SEA
26. Clay Buchholz - TB
27. Ubaldo Jimenez - @KC
28. Matt Harrison - @MIN
29. Luke Hochevar - CLE
30. Jake Peavy - DET
31. Chris Sale - @CLE, DET
32. Hiroki Kuroda - LAA
33. Brandon Morrow - BAL
34. Felix Doubront - @TOR, TB
35. Rick Porcello - TB, @CHW
36. Francisco Liriano - LAA
37. Tom Milone - KC, @SEA
38. Bruce Chen - @OAK
39. Dan Bard - @TOR
40. Philip Humber - @CLE

Borderline Depending on League Format

41. Brian Matusz - NYY, @TOR
42. Henderson Alvarez - BAL
43. Luis Mendoza - @OAK, CLE
44. Jason Vargas - @TEX
45. Graham Godfrey - KC, @SEA
46. Jeremy Hellickson - @BOS
47. Jonathan Sanchez - CLE
48. Derek Lowe - @KC
49. Jeff Niemann - @DET
50. Phil Hughes - LAA
51. Carl Pavano - LAA
52. Drew Smyly - TB
53. Tommy Hunter - @TOR
54. Jeanmar Gomez - CHW
55. Danny Duffy - @OAK
56. Blake Beavan - @TEX, OAK

Extreme Caution Advised

57. Kyle Drabek - BOS, BAL
58. Liam Hendriks - TEX
59. Hector Noesi - @TEX, OAK
60. Freddy Garcia - @BAL
61. Josh Tomlin - CHW, @KC
62. Nick Blackburn - LAA, TEX
63. Kevin Millwood - @TEX
64. Jake Arrieta - NYY
65. Wei-Yin Chen - NYY
66. Jason Hammel - @TOR
67. Jason Marquis - TEX
68. Jerome Williams - @NYY

Notes: Justin Masterson
fanned 10 Blue Jays while allowing just two hits over eight innings in his 2012 debut. I liked Masterson as a breakout candidate last year, and given his well above average groundball rate and improved control, I like him this year as well. ... Seeing the A's go with Graham Godfrey over Tyson Ross was a surprise given Godfrey's 5.09 spring ERA and Ross' 1.80 mark, but the latter will rejoin the team on April 17 as the fifth starter. ... Two games I'm tuning into regardless of work/family obligations Yu Darvish vs. somebody on April 9 and Justin Verlander vs. James Shields on April 11. ... Scott Baker had to exit a rehab start Thursday due to recurring elbow pain. An MRI on Baker's elbow showed a mild flexor strain similar to the injury that scratched him from a start last July. There's not timetable for his return.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - PIT, SD
2. Cole Hamels - MIA, NYM
3. Yu Darvish - SEA, @MIN
4. Justin Verlander - TB
5. Roy Halladay - MIA
6. C.J. Wilson - @MIN, @NYY
7. Cliff Lee - MIA
8. Stephen Strasburg - @NYM
9. Zack Greinke - @CHC
10. Chad Billingsley - PIT, SD
11. Jon Lester - @TOR
12. Tim Lincecum - @COL
13. Ian Kennedy - @SD
14. Brandon Beachy - @HOU, MIL
15. Felix Hernandez - OAK
16. Tommy Hanson - @HOU
17. Matt Cain - PIT
18. CC Sabathia - @BAL
19. James Shields - @DET
20. Jered Weaver - @MIN
21. Matt Moore - @DET, @BOS
22. Dan Haren - @MIN
23. David Price - @BOS
24. Josh Beckett - TB
25. Matt Garza - MIL
26. John Danks - @CLE
27. Yovani Gallardo - @CHC
28. Bartolo Colon - @SEA
29. Josh Johnson - @PHI
30. Madison Bumgarner - @COL
31. Mat Latos - @WAS
32. Justin Masterson - CHW
33. Dan Hudson - @COL
34. Doug Fister - @CHW
35. Johnny Cueto - STL
36. Ervin Santana - @NYY
37. Brandon McCarthy - KC
38. Gio Gonzalez - CIN
39. Derek Holland - SEA
40. Ryan Dempster - MIL
41. Ivan Nova - @BAL, LAA
42. Vance Worley - NYM
43. Adam Wainwright - CHC
44. Cory Luebke - ARI
45. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI, HOU
46. Neftali Feliz - SEA, @MIN
47. Mark Buehrle - @PHI
48. Edwin Jackson - @NYM, CIN
49. Ricky Romero - BOS
50. Jordan Zimmermann - CIN
51. Kyle Lohse - @CIN
52. Erik Bedard - @LAD
53. Gavin Floyd - DET
54. Max Scherzer - @CHW
55. Randy Wolf - @ATL
56. Jaime Garcia - @CIN
57. Edinson Volquez - ARI, @LAD
58. Johan Santana - WAS
59. Trevor Cahill - @SD, @COL
60. Shaun Marcum - @CHC, @ATL
61. Colby Lewis - SEA
62. Jair Jurrjens - MIL
63. Jhoulys Chacin - SF, ARI
64. Clay Buchholz - TB
65. Ubaldo Jimenez - @KC
66. Matt Harrison - @MIN
67. Ricky Nolasco - HOU
68. Luke Hochevar - CLE
69. Jake Peavy - DET
70. Chris Sale - @CLE, DET
71. Hiroki Kuroda - LAA
72. Brandon Morrow - BAL
73. Felix Doubront - @TOR, TB
74. Rick Porcello - TB, @CHW
75. Francisco Liriano - LAA
76. Chris Capuano - PIT
77. Tom Milone - KC, @SEA
78. Bruce Chen - @OAK
79. Mike Minor - MIL
80. Dan Bard - @TOR
81. Aaron Harang - SD
82. Lance Lynn - CHC
83. Jon Niese - @PHI
84. Wandy Rodriguez - ATL
85. Bud Norris - @MIA
86. Philip Humber - @CLE
87. Juan Nicasio - ARI
88. Joe Blanton - NYM
89. Bronson Arroyo - @WAS
90. Brian Matusz - NYY, @TOR
91. Henderson Alvarez - BAL
92. Luis Mendoza - @OAK, CLE
93. Jason Vargas - @TEX
94. Mike Leake - STL, @WAS
95. Graham Godfrey - KC, @SEA
96. Jeremy Hellickson - @BOS
97. Jonathan Sanchez - CLE
98. Derek Lowe - @KC
99. Jeff Niemann - @DET
100. Phil Hughes - LAA

Regan, a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.