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Collette Calls: On ETAs

Jason Collette

Jason Collette

Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at theprocessreport.net. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Towers of Power Baseball Hour Podcast on iTunes. He was selected as the Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year by FSWA in 2013.

"#FREE_____"

"When is ____ going to be called up??!!"

Ever since social media has increased in its popularity, these kinds of tweets and posts have become annoyingly prevalent. The meme was cute at first but it gets all sorts of annoying these days and has been further complicated by the changes in baseball's CBA.

The common belief is that all great prospects get called up shortly after Memorial Day as the Super Two deadline passes. To best explain the Super Two status, here is the official language from the MLBPA site:

A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 22 percent (increased from 17 percent in previous agreements) in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

Simply put, there is not a hard-fast date on the calendar that fantasy players can circle with a red marker so they know when their stud prospect is coming up. General managers do not care about your fantasy team and will call these prospects up when they feel the player is ready or an injury presents itself, as we saw with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper earlier this season. Ideally, both teams would have kept the players down to control future costs, but both Jerry Dipoto and Mike Rizzo accurately assessed their rosters as contending teams. Instead of calling up Triple-A retreads to hold the spots, they called up their best talents and both teams are in a better place.

GM's manipulating service time in past seasons saved future dollars this season on a few guys. Derek Holland, Matt Joyce, Tommy Hanson, Matt Wieters, Ian Kennedy, and Gerardo Parra all had their service time clocks stalled when they were first called up and each fell short of the Super Two cutoff this past offseason allowing those teams for an extra year of control rather than having to go through an extra year of arbitration costs with those players.

With that said, none of that really helps you as fantasy players plan your rosters in keeper leagues where these types of prospects are taken and many asked we include the ETA years for the players Jesse and I ranked two weeks ago that included Bernie's comments. We have updated the overall list linked at the top of the page to reflect those dates but here is a grouping for each year as we use inexact science to try to read the mind of the 30 major league organizations.

  2012   2013   2014   2015
Rk Name Rk Name Rk Name Rk Name
3 Myers, Wil 1 Bundy, Dylan 2 Profar, Jurickson 21 Lindor, Francisco
4 Bauer, Trevor 5 Machado, Manny 8 Walker, Taijuan 36 Bogaerts, Xander
10 Hultzen, Danny 6 Hamilton, Billy 13 Sano, Miguel 46 Starling, Bubba
17 Rizzo, Anthony 7 Cole, Gerrit 15 Bradley, Archie 48 Williams, Mason
20 Teheran, Julio 9 Miller, Shelby 26 Yelich, Christian 52 Soler, Jorge
24 Odorizzi, Jake 11 d'Arnaud, Travis 33 Lee, Zach 53 Rosario, Eddie
28 Jackson, Brett 12 Taillon, Jameson 34 Martinez, Carlos 59 Story, Trevor
29 Harvey, Matt 14 Arenado, Nolan 35 Sanchez, Gary 67 Bell, Joshua
31 Franklin, Nick 16 Taveras, Oscar 40 Liriano, Rymer 74 Baez, Javier
38 Gyorko, Jedd 18 Gose, Anthony 42 Marisnick, Jake 78 Nicolino, Justin
47 Grandal, Yasmani 19 Castellanos, Nick 43 Brentz, Bryce 88 Guerrieri, Taylor
54 Banuelos, Manny 22 Wheeler, Zack 44 Barnes, Matt 90 Norris, Daniel
56 Turner, Jacob 23 Skaggs, Tyler 45 Fernandez, Jose 92 Bichette Jr., Dante
57 Perez, Martin 25 Rendon, Anthony 51 Biddle, Jesse    
63 Martin, Leonys 27 Olt, Mike 58 Springer, George    
64 Peacock, Brad 30 Paxton, James 60 Brown, Gary    
70 Vizcaino, Arodys 32 Singleton, Jonathan 62 Bradley, Jackie    
72 Peralta, Wily 37 May, Trevor 71 Syndergaard, Noah    
75 Kelly, Casey 39 Wong, Kolten 73 Mahtook, Mikie    
77 Archer, Chris 40 Liriano, Rymer 79 Bonifacio, Jorge    
80 Lavarnway, Ryan 41 Thornburg, Tyler 81 Cole, A.J.    
95 Mesoraco, Devin 49 Arcia, Oswaldo 84 Cron, C.J.    
102 Montgomery, Mike 50 Erlin, Robbie 89 Holmberg, David    
105 Grimm, Justin 55 Buckel, Cody 91 Cuthbert, Cheslor    
    61 den Dekker, Matt 93 Crick, Kyle    
    65 Wieland, Joe 94 Austin, Tyler    
    66 Marte, Starling 96 Nelson, Jimmy    
    68 Segura, Jean 97 Hanson, Alen    
    69 Wheeler, Tim 98 Sale, Josh    
    76 Cosart, Jarred 101 Jacobs, Brandon    
    82 Spangenberg, Cory 107 Chafin, Andrew    
    83 Davidson, Matt        
    84 Cron, C.J.        
    85 Corcino, Daniel        
    86 Webster, Allen        
    87 Cingrani, Anthony        
    99 Heston, Chris        
    100 Lee, Hak-Ju        
    103 Gray, Sonny        
    104 Eaton, Adam        
    106 Gattis, Evan        


I made my thoughts on aggressive promotions of prospects clear in an article I wrote last year and still believe everything I stated despite the success of Harper this season. The frustrations of waiting for prospects to come up and then produce at the level that they do is one reason why I choose to either steer clear of them or draft them for the sole purpose of trading them to other owners who are not yet as frustrated as I have grown to become with the process each season.
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