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Pitching Value Meter: Sale-a-brate Good Times

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week July 2-8

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Johnny Cueto - @LAD, @SD
2. Zack Greinke - MIA, @HOU
3. Cole Hamels - ATL
4. Stephen Strasburg - COL
5. James McDonald - HOU, SF
6. R.A. Dickey - PHI
7. Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
8. Tommy Hanson - CHC, @PHI
9. Jordan Zimmermann - SF, COL
10. Matt Cain - @WAS
11. Wade Miley - LAD
12. Johan Santana - CHC
13. Trevor Cahill - SD, LAD
14. A.J. Burnett - HOU, SF
15. Gio Gonzalez - COL
16. Ian Kennedy - SD
17. Madison Bumgarner - @WAS
18. Jon Niese - PHI, CHC
19. Jeff Samardzija - @ATL, @NYM
20. Homer Bailey - @LAD, @SD
21. Anibal Sanchez - @MIL, @STL
22. Vance Worley - @NYM, ATL
23. Trevor Bauer - SD
24. Mat Latos - @SD
25. Josh Johnson - @MIL
26. Tim Lincecum - @WAS, @PIT
27. Matt Garza - @ATL
28. Chris Capuano - CIN, @ARI
29. Yovani Gallardo - @HOU
30. Tim Hudson - @PHI
31. Kyle Lohse - COL, MIA
32. Chad Billingsley - CIN, @ARI
33. Dillon Gee - CHC
34. Cliff Lee - @NYM (great recent track record, but ...)
35. Edwin Jackson - SF
36. Bronson Arroyo - @SD
37. Bud Norris - @PIT
38. Erik Bedard - SF
39. Ryan Vogelsong - @PIT
40. Ross Detwiler - SF
41. Adam Wainwright - COL
42. Lance Lynn COL (look up "regression to the mean")
43. Mark Buehrle - @MIL
44. Ryan Dempster - @NYM (check status)
45. Mike Leake - @LAD
46. Wandy Rodriguez - MIL
47. Lucas Harrell - @PIT
48. Nathan Eovaldi - @ARI
49. Dallas Keuchel - @PIT
50. Clayton Richard - @ARI, CIN (better lately but these are relatively tough matchups)

Borderline Depending on League Format

51. Michael Fiers - MIA
52. Chris Young - PHI
53. Travis Wood - @NYM
54. Jordan Lyles - @PIT, MIL
55. Jair Jurrjens - CHC, @PHI
56. Joe Blanton - ATL
57. Randy Wolf - MIA
58. Jake Westbrook - MIA
59. Joe Saunders - LAD
60. Joe Kelly - COL, MIA
61. Aaron Harang - CIN
62. Paul Maholm - @ATL (which Maholm this week?)
63. Carlos Zambrano - @MIL, @STL
64. Edinson Volquez - CIN
65. J.A. Happ - MIL
66. Marco Estrada - MIA, @HOU
67. Ricky Nolasco - @STL
68. Kevin Correia - HOU
69. Andrew Cashner - @ARI, CIN
70. Jeff Karstens - HOU
71. Josh Collmenter LAD

Extreme Caution Advised

72. Christian Friedrich - @STL, @WAS
73. Barry Zito - @PIT
74. Mike Minor - CHC
75. Randall Delgado - CHC
76. Chris Volstad - @ATL (tentative)
77. Drew Pomeranz - @STL
78. Kyle Kendrick - @NYM
79. Anthony Bass - CIN
80. Jason Marquis - @ARI
81. Josh Outman - @STL, @WAS
82. Jeff Francis - @STL, @WAS

Notes:
Wow that was an ugly start from Edwin Jackson on Thursday (eight runs in three innings versus Colorado). The ERA increase: 0.66. ... Stunning to see Kip Wells back in the big leagues, but with the Padres, who knows, he may actually have success. That said, he might be replaced by Anthony Bass this week. ... Terrible news for Daniel Hudson, who seems headed for Tommy John surgery. Fortunately the Dbacks have the likes of Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs ready to contribute. Bauer seems likely to stick for the rest of the year now, barring some weird Gibson fascination with Josh Collmenter. ... As a Dodgers fan, it's sickening to watch James McDonald this year. Even with a poor outing last time out, the Pirates ace still has a 2.44 ERA this year. ... Congrats to Lucas Harrell, but I wonder how many pitchers have recorded their first career shutout against the Padres in recent years? ... Joe Kelly has a 3.38 ERA through four starts, but with a 4.6 K/9, I'm not buying. ... Trevor Cahill gets the Dodgers and Padres at home this week. If there was ever a week to use him, this is it. ... If we go strictly by ERA, the Nationals have the top 1-2-3 in baseball with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez all ranking in the top-18 in the league in that stat. The Mets and Giants are the only two other teams to have three pitchers ranked in the top-40 overall. ... I need to see more from Tim Lincecum than holding a pathetic Dodgers lineup scoreless before I move him back way up this list.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Chris Sale - TEX, TOR
2. Justin Verlander - MIN
3. Jered Weaver - @CLE, BAL
4. James Shields - NYY, @CLE
5. Felix Hernandez - BAL
6. David Price NYY (check status of back)
7. Max Scherzer - MIN, KC (over/under on Ks for the week: 19.5)
8. Jon Lester - @OAK, NYY
9. C.J. Wilson - BAL
10. Yu Darvish - MIN
11. Dan Haren - @CLE, BAL (good ratios, but poor recent results)
12. Justin Masterson - TB
13. Tom Milone - SEA
14. Jason Vargas - @OAK
15. Matt Moore - NYY, @CLE
16. Roy Oswalt - @CHW, MIN
17. Franklin Morales - @OAK
18. Doug Fister - MIN, KC
19. Josh Beckett - NYY
20. Alex Cobb - @CLE
21. Ubaldo Jimenez - LAA, TB
22. Hiroki Kuroda - @BOS
23. Ivan Nova - @TB, @BOS
24. Wei-Yin Chen - @SEA, @LAA
25. Phil Hughes - @BOS
26. Jeremy Hellickson - @CLE
27. Jake Peavy - TOR
28. Ricky Romero - KC, @CHW (that was ugly ... see last start)
29. Matt Harrison - @CHW
30. Jason Hammel - @SEA, @LAA (see notes below)
31. Gavin Floyd - TOR
32. Rick Porcello - MIN
33. Jarrod Parker - BOS
34. Derek Lowe - LAA
35. Henderson Alvarez - KC
36. Ervin Santana - @CLE
37. Garrett Richards - BAL
38. Erasmo Ramirez - @OAK
39. Felix Doubront - NYY
40. Travis Blackley - SEA
41. Kevin Millwood - @OAK (tentative)

Borderline Depending on League Format

42. Brett Cecil - KC, @CHW
43. Daisuke Matsuzaka - @OAK, NYY
44. Freddy Garcia - @TB, @BOS
45. Jacob Turner - KC
46. Scott Diamond - @DET
47. Bruce Chen - @DET
48. Dylan Axelrod - TEX
49. Luke Hochevar - @DET
50. Martin Perez - MIN
51. Josh Tomlin - TB
52. Aaron Laffey - @CHW
53. Jose Quintana - TEX
54. Brian Duensing - @DET
55. Francisco Liriano - @TEX
56. Zach McAllister - LAA, TB
57. Luis Mendoza - @TOR
58. Hector Noesi - BAL
59. Jonathan Sanchez - @TOR
60. A.J. Griffin - BOS
61. Jake Arrieta - @SEA
62. Nick Blackburn - @DET, @TEX

Extreme caution advised

63. Scott Feldman - @CHW
64. Hisashi Iwakuma - BAL
65. Dana Eveland - @LAA
66. Adam Warren - @TB
67. Carlos Villanueva - KC
68. Brian Matusz - @LAA
69. Vincent Mazzaro - @TOR
70. Bartolo Colon - BOS (tentative)
71. P.J. Walters - @TEX
72. Everett Teaford - @TOR, @DET
73. Liam Hendriks - @DET

Notes:
I have Bartolo Colon (oblique) slotted in the rotation this week, but it's no sure thing he goes. If he doesn't go, that makes Jarrod Parker a likely two-start starter. ... Guess here is that Brandon McCarthy's shoulder will eventually be donated to science. ... The Yankees don't have anyone better than Adam Warren to replace Andy Pettitte (oblique) and CC Sabathia (ankle) in the rotation? Nope, not with Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances failing to live up to their respective prospect statuses this year. ... Zach McAllister replaces Jeanmar Gomez in the Cleveland rotation, but despite some interesting minor league numbers in the past, McAllister is likely not worth owning in most formats. ... A lot of us were excited to add a Roy Oswalt this year, especially in deeper formats. Unfortunately Oswalt is now the proud owner of a 1.97 WHIP after two starts. Of some encouragement: a 12:3 K:BB in 12.2 innings. ... Really liked what I saw from Chris Archer in his two starts, particularly his 14:2 K:BB in 11.2 innings. Given his reputation for less than stellar control, he was really good before getting the Triple-A call. ... WHY DID I BUY IN TO Jason Hammel? That is all. ... If we were voting today, Justin Verlander is probably your AL Cy Young winner, but with nine wins and a league-best 2.27 ERA, Chris Sale is right up there. ... In Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz, the Orioles have three of the worst ERA-qualifying starting pitchers in the game. On a more positive note, they don't have Jeremy Guthrie any more. ... I'm assuming Kevin Millwood will go next weekend against the A's, but monitor his recovery from a groin injury. ... Derek Holland (shoulder) could return to the rotation this week, but I've left him off my lists, as even if he does return, I'd rather see one start before slotting him back in my lineups. ... Not all that excited about Martin Perez, as he's really taken a step back as a prospect.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Johnny Cueto - @LAD, @SD
2. Chris Sale - TEX, TOR
3. Zack Greinke - MIA, @HOU
4. Justin Verlander - MIN
5. Jered Weaver - @CLE, BAL
6. Cole Hamels - ATL
7. Stephen Strasburg - COL
8. James McDonald - HOU, SF
9. James Shields - NYY, @CLE
10. R.A. Dickey - PHI
11. Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
12. Tommy Hanson - CHC, @PHI
13. Jordan Zimmermann - SF, COL
14. Matt Cain - @WAS
15. Wade Miley - LAD
16. Johan Santana - CHC
17. Felix Hernandez - BAL
18. Trevor Cahill - SD, LAD
19. A.J. Burnett - HOU, SF
20. David Price NYY (check status of back)
21. Gio Gonzalez - COL
22. Ian Kennedy - SD
23. Max Scherzer - MIN, KC (over/under on Ks for the week: 19.5)
24. Jon Lester - @OAK, NYY
25. Madison Bumgarner - @WAS
26. C.J. Wilson - BAL
27. Yu Darvish - MIN
28. Dan Haren - @CLE, BAL (good ratios, but poor recent results)
29. Jon Niese - PHI, CHC
30. Justin Masterson - TB
31. Tom Milone - SEA
32. Jason Vargas - @OAK
33. Matt Moore - NYY, @CLE
34. Jeff Samardzija - @ATL, @NYM
35. Homer Bailey - @LAD, @SD
36. Anibal Sanchez - @MIL, @STL
37. Vance Worley - @NYM, ATL
38. Trevor Bauer - SD
39. Mat Latos - @SD
40. Josh Johnson - @MIL
41. Roy Oswalt - @CHW, MIN
42. Tim Lincecum - @WAS, @PIT
43. Franklin Morales - @OAK
44. Matt Garza - @ATL
45. Doug Fister - MIN, KC
46. Chris Capuano - CIN, @ARI
47. Josh Beckett - NYY
48. Yovani Gallardo - @HOU
49. Tim Hudson - @PHI
50. Kyle Lohse - COL, MIA
51. Chad Billingsley - CIN, @ARI
52. Dillon Gee - CHC
53. Cliff Lee - @NYM (great recent track record, but ...)
54. Edwin Jackson - SF
55. Alex Cobb - @CLE
56. Bronson Arroyo - @SD
57. Bud Norris - @PIT
58. Ubaldo Jimenez - LAA, TB
59. Erik Bedard - SF
60. Ryan Vogelsong - @PIT
61. Hiroki Kuroda - @BOS
62. Ivan Nova - @TB, @BOS
63. Wei-Yin Chen - @SEA, @LAA
64. Phil Hughes - @BOS
65. Jeremy Hellickson - @CLE
66. Jake Peavy - TOR
67. Ricky Romero - KC, @CHW (that was ugly ... see last start)
68. Ross Detwiler - SF
69. Matt Harrison - @CHW
70. Jason Hammel - @SEA, @LAA (see notes below)
71. Gavin Floyd - TOR
72. Rick Porcello - MIN
73. Jarrod Parker - BOS
74. Derek Lowe - LAA
75. Henderson Alvarez - KC
76. Ervin Santana - @CLE
77. Garrett Richards - BAL
78. Erasmo Ramirez - @OAK
79. Felix Doubront - NYY
80. Travis Blackley - SEA
81. Adam Wainwright - COL
82. Lance Lynn COL (look up "regression to the mean")
83. Mark Buehrle - @MIL
84. Ryan Dempster - @NYM (check status)
85. Mike Leake - @LAD
86. Kevin Millwood - @OAK (tentative)
87. Wandy Rodriguez - MIL
88. Lucas Harrell - @PIT
89. Nathan Eovaldi - @ARI
90. Dallas Keuchel - @PIT
91. Clayton Richard - @ARI, CIN (better lately but these are relatively tough matchups)
92. Michael Fiers - MIA
93. Chris Young - PHI
94. Travis Wood - @NYM
95. Jordan Lyles - @PIT, MIL
96. Jair Jurrjens - CHC, @PHI
97. Brett Cecil - KC, @CHW
98. Daisuke Matsuzaka - @OAK, NYY
99. Freddy Garcia - @TB, @BOS
100. Jacob Turner - KC

Regan, a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.