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Pitching Value Meter: All-Star Week

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week July 9-15

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.


Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

It's All-Star week, so I'll start with the caveat that I have even less certainty this week than normal about how managers will slot their pitchers coming out of the break. I'm going to go with the following assumptions:

1. For the most part, stud veteran pitchers will get a start.

2. Young pitchers on innings limits likely will get skipped (Stephen Strasburg comes to mind).

3. Pitchers with injuries expected to return "just after the break" will pitch. This means starts from the likes of Clay Buchholz.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. R.A. Dickey - @ATL
2. Zack Greinke - PIT
3. Clayton Kershaw - SD
4. Cole Hamels - @COL
5. Mat Latos - STL
6. Johnny Cueto - STL
7. Madison Bumgarner - HOU
8. Matt Cain - HOU
9. James McDonald - @MIL
10. Johan Santana - @ATL
11. Cliff Lee - @COL
12. Adam Wainwright - @CIN
13. Tommy Hanson - NYM
14. Gio Gonzalez - @MIA
15. Matt Garza - ARI
16. Ryan Dempster - ARI
17. Jordan Zimmermann - @MIA
18. Tim Hudson - NYM
19. Josh Johnson - WAS
20. Bud Norris - @SF
21. Yovani Gallardo - PIT
22. Edwin Jackson - @MIA
23. A.J. Burnett - @MIL
24. Ian Kennedy - @CHC
25. Lance Lynn - @CIN
26. Chad Billingsley - SD
27. Mark Buehrle - WAS
28. Ricky Nolasco - WAS
29. Chris Young - @ATL
30. Bronson Arroyo - STL
31. Trevor Cahill - @CHC
32. Aaron Harang - SD
33. Edinson Volquez - @LAD
34. Clayton Richard - @LAD

Borderline Depending on League Format

35. Paul Maholm - ARI
36. Joe Blanton - @COL
37. Lucas Harrell - @SF
38. Marco Estrada - PIT
39. Dallas Keuchel - @SF
40. Ben Sheets - NYM
41. Erik Bedard - @MIL
42. Jake Westbrook - @CIN
43. Wade Miley - @CHC

Extreme Caution Advised

44. Jason Marquis - @LAD
45. Christian Friedrich - PHI
46. Tim Lincecum - HOU
47. Jeff Francis - PHI
48. Jeremy Guthrie - PHI

Notes: Lance Lynn
and Wade Miley over James McDonald and Johnny Cueto. Sigh ... I saw Edinson Volquez pitch against the Reds this week, and he looked really good, striking out 10 in seven one-run innings. That could give him a boost of confidence headed into the second half. ... The player Volquez (plus others) was traded for, Mat Latos, tossed seven scoreless in the same game and has allowed just two runs in his last 25 innings. ... Matt Cain has a 4.26 ERA in four starts since his perfect game. At least he's no Phil Humber. ... It was just the Astros, but Jeff Karstens' eight shutout innings (eight Ks) Thursday should put him on your radar in deeper formats. ... Trevor Bauer could be pitching to avoid Triple-A when he squares off against the Dodgers on Sunday. With Joe Saunders (shoulder) set to return soon, either Bauer or Josh Collmenter will get the boot. ... I'm projecting Ben Sheets to join the Atlanta rotation this week. He was amazingly in the 89-93 mph with his fastball in a Double-A appearance and fanned six over five uneven innings. ... Ryan Dempster has returned from his shoulder injury and could find himself in another uniform as soon as he shows he's healthy. ... Clayton Kershaw hasn't been quite as good as last year, but he's still seventh in the NL in ERA (2.65) and tied for fifth in strikeouts with 112. Edit: Things didn't go so well Friday, and his ERA is up to 2.91. Time to trade him, Dodgers. ... R.A. Dickey is averaging 7.1 innings per start to Stephen Strasburg's 5.8. That spread, if it continues, should help Dickey's chances at the NL Cy Young. ... Johan Santana sprained his ankle on Friday, but it's not expected to impact him, particularly with the All-Star break next week. ... That's three straight quality starts for Ricky Nolasco after he held the Cardinals to one unearned run over six innings Friday. Now you can safely put him in your lineup and watch him get shelled. ... Jake Westbrook pitched well again Friday with one earned run in 6.2 innings against Miami. I figured by now that he'd be replaced by Shelby Miller, but Westbrook has a 3.75 ERA, and until recently, Miller has struggled in Triple-A.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - @BAL
2. Chris Sale - @KC
3. David Price - BOS
4. CC Sabathia - LAA
5. Felix Hernandez - TEX
6. Jered Weaver - @NYY
7. Hiroki Kuroda - LAA
8. James Shields - BOS
9. Jake Peavy - @KC
10. Max Scherzer - @BAL
11. Bartolo Colon - @MIN
12. C.J. Wilson - @NYY
13. Yu Darvish - @SEA
14. Jon Lester - @TB
15. Matt Harrison - @SEA
16. Francisco Liriano - OAK
17. Phil Hughes - LAA
18. Derek Holland - @SEA
19. A.J Griffin - @MIN
20. Travis Blackley - @MIN
21. Gavin Floyd - @KC
22. Wei-Yin Chen - DET
23. Scott Diamond - OAK

Borderline Depending on League Format

24. Kevin Millwood - TEX
25. Jason Hammel - DET
26. Jeremy Hellickson - BOS
27. Josh Beckett - @TB
28. Ubaldo Jimenez - @TOR
29. Justin Masterson - @TOR
30. Derek Lowe - @TOR
31. Ervin Santana - @NYY
32. Clay Buchholz - @TB
33. Doug Fister - @BAL
34. Ricky Romero - CLE

Extreme Caution Advised

35. Henderson Alvarez - CLE
36. Chris Tillman - DET
37. Luke Hochevar - CHW
38. Jason Vargas - TEX
39. Brett Cecil - CLE
40. Luis Mendoza - CHW
41. Cole DeVries - OAK
42. Jonathan Sanchez - CHW

Notes: Neftali Feliz
(elbow) will work as a starter in his rehab assignment, but still no determination as to what his big-league role will be. With Derek Holland (shoulder) and Colby Lewis (forearm) getting healthy, there's really no room for Feliz unless Roy Oswalt's struggles continue. ... Incredibly, Jake Arrieta is 3-9 with a 6.13 ERA, and when I say that, I'm referring to his solid ratios - 7.9 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP. I have to say that he'll improve, but he might have to prove his worth via a Triple-A stint first. ... I saw that the Blue Jays released Jamie Moyer. He might want to put in a call to the Royals, but it could still be the end for the 49 year-old. ... Dan Haren was placed on the DL with a stiff lower back, perhaps something that helps explain his struggles. The rest could do him a ton of good. ... With Hector Noesi shipped to Triple-A, we could see the beginning of the Danny Hultzen era. Hisashi Iwakuma gets the nod for now, but see if the Mariners tap Hultzen after the break. ... I don't see A.J. Griffin having a lot of long-term value despite a 1.50 ERA in three starts. I'm a bit wary of pitchers who don't throw hard and don't have much of a prospect track record. ... One of the more remarkable stories from the season's first half is that Jake Peavy has made 16 starts. He's 6-5 with a 2.96 ERA and has posted solid ratios to boot - 8.1 K/9IP, 1.9 BB/9IP. ... If Eric Hurley's name sounds familiar, it was because he was a top prospect with the Rangers at one point. Fast forward a few years and he's now in line to start for the Angels after a 5.38 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts. He can be safely avoided. ... So far so good for Brett Anderson (Tommy John surgery) in his recovery. He should be back in the rotation in August, so stash him in deeper leagues if you can. ... Drew Smyly fanned a career-best 10 on Friday against the Royals and should be a solid option in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues in the second half. ... That Jonathan Sanchez deal hasn't worked out so well for the Royals, as Melky Cabrera is an All-Star and Sanchez's latest beatdown came on Friday.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 90

1. Justin Verlander - @BAL
2. R.A. Dickey - @ATL
3. Zack Greinke - PIT
4. Clayton Kershaw - SD
5. Chris Sale - @KC
6. David Price - BOS
7. Cole Hamels - @COL
8. CC Sabathia - LAA
9. Felix Hernandez - TEX
10. Jered Weaver - @NYY
11. Mat Latos - STL
12. Johnny Cueto - STL
13. Madison Bumgarner - HOU
14. Matt Cain - HOU
15. James McDonald - @MIL
16. Johan Santana - @ATL
17. Cliff Lee - @COL
18. Hiroki Kuroda - LAA
19. James Shields - BOS
20. Jake Peavy - @KC
21. Adam Wainwright - @CIN
22. Max Scherzer - @BAL
23. Tommy Hanson - NYM
24. Bartolo Colon - @MIN
25. Gio Gonzalez - @MIA
26. Matt Garza - ARI
27. Ryan Dempster - ARI
28. Jordan Zimmermann - @MIA
29. C.J. Wilson - @NYY
30. Yu Darvish - @SEA
31. Jon Lester - @TB
32. Tim Hudson - NYM
33. Matt Harrison - @SEA
34. Josh Johnson - WAS
35. Bud Norris - @SF
36. Yovani Gallardo - PIT
37. Edwin Jackson - @MIA
38. A.J. Burnett - @MIL
39. Ian Kennedy - @CHC
40. Lance Lynn - @CIN
41. Francisco Liriano - OAK
42. Chad Billingsley - SD
43. Mark Buehrle - WAS
44. Ricky Nolasco - WAS
45. Phil Hughes - LAA
46. Derek Holland - @SEA
47. Chris Young - @ATL
48. Bronson Arroyo - STL
49. Trevor Cahill - @CHC
50. Aaron Harang - SD
51. Edinson Volquez - @LAD
52. A.J Griffin - @MIN
53. Clayton Richard - @LAD
54. Travis Blackley - @MIN
55. Gavin Floyd - @KC
56. Wei-Yin Chen - DET
57. Paul Maholm - ARI
58. Scott Diamond - OAK
59. Joe Blanton - @COL
60. Lucas Harrell - @SF
61. Marco Estrada - PIT
62. Dallas Keuchel - @SF
63. Ben Sheets - NYM
64. Erik Bedard - @MIL
65. Jake Westbrook - @CIN
66. Wade Miley - @CHC
67. Kevin Millwood - TEX
68. Jason Hammel - DET
69. Jeremy Hellickson - BOS
70. Tim Lincecum - HOU
71. Josh Beckett - @TB
72. Ubaldo Jimenez - @TOR
73. Justin Masterson - @TOR
74. Derek Lowe - @TOR
75. Ervin Santana - @NYY
76. Clay Buchholz - @TB
77. Doug Fister - @BAL
78. Ricky Romero - CLE
79. Christian Friedrich - PHI
80. Jason Marquis - @LAD
81. Henderson Alvarez - CLE
82. Chris Tillman - DET
83. Luke Hochevar - CHW
84. Jason Vargas - TEX
85. Brett Cecil - CLE
86. Luis Mendoza - CHW
87. Cole DeVries - OAK
88. Jeff Francis - PHI
89. Jonathan Sanchez - CHW
90. Jeremy Guthrie - PHI

Regan, a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

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