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Pitching Value Meter: Beckett in Blue

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

I've been a Dodgers fan and a baseball fan since the 70s, and I can honestly say that I've never seen or known what to think about a deal such as the one that looks imminent between the Dodgers and Red Sox. Here's how things break down:

Dodgers Get:

LF Carl Crawford (approx. $116 million owed)
RHP Josh Beckett (approx. $40 million owed)
1B Adrian Gonzalez (approx. $114 million owed)
INF Nick Punto

Red Sox Get:

RHP Allen Webster
RHP Rubby De La Rosa
OF/1B Jerry Sands
INF Ivan DeJesus
1B James Loney

It's a massive amount of budget transfer and unless the Red Sox are sending a ton of cash the Dodgers' way, it's essentially a re-boot for Ben Cherington and Boston. Webster and De La Rosa are the prizes in this deal for the Sox, and they essentially become the frontrunner for the services of Josh Hamilton and any other high-priced 2012 free agent. The Dodgers swap out Loney and Aaron Harang for Gonzalez and Beckett, with a 2012 playoff spot still up in the air. Safe to say that Frank McCourt wouldn't have signed off on this deal eh?

Cy Young Tracker

NL:

1. R.A. Dickey
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Clayton Kershaw

In the conversation: Jordan Zimmermann, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Matt Cain (added)

AL:

1. Justin Verlander
2. David Price
3. Felix Hernandez

In the conversation: Jered Weaver, Chris Sale

For the week Aug. 27 - Sept. 2

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Stephen Strasburg - @MIA, STL
2. Matt Cain - @HOU, @CHC
3. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
4. R.A. Dickey - @PHI
5. Cole Hamels - NYM
6. Madison Bumgarner - @CHC
7. Johnny Cueto - @ARI
8. Roy Halladay - @ATL
9. Jordan Zimmermann - STL
10. Gio Gonzalez - STL
11. Cliff Lee - @ATL
12. A.J. Burnett - STL, @MIL
13. Adam Wainwright - @PIT
14. Mat Latos - @ARI
15. Kris Medlen - @SD
16. Josh Johnson - NYM
17. Jake Westbrook - @PIT, @WAS
18. Edwin Jackson - STL
19. Marco Estrada - @CHC, PIT
20. Kyle Lohse - @PIT, @WAS
21. Jeff Samardzija - MIL
22. Ian Kennedy - @LAD
23. Chris Capuano - @COL, ARI
24. Tim Hudson - PHI
25. Jon Niese - @MIA
26. Tommy Hanson - @SD
27. Paul Maholm - @SD
28. Vance Worley - NYM, @ATL
29. Mike Leake - @HOU
30. Patrick Corbin - CIN
31. Ryan Vogelsong - @HOU
32. Chad Billingsley - @COL
33. Ben Sheets - PHI
34. Yovani Gallardo - @CHC, PIT (attractive starts, but ...)
35. Lance Lynn - @PIT
36. Michael Fiers - @CHC
37. Wade Miley - CIN
38. Mike Minor - PHI
39. Shaun Marcum - @CHC
40. Trevor Cahill - CIN, @LAD
41. Tim Lincecum - @CHC
42. Tyler Skaggs - CIN
43. Travis Wood - MIL, SF
44. Jaime Garcia - @WAS
45. Chris Young - @PHI, @MIA
46. Mark Buehrle - NYM
47. Matt Harvey - @PHI
48. Ross Detwiler - @MIA
49. Joe Saunders - @LAD
50. Bronson Arroyo - @ARI, @HOU
51. Homer Bailey - @HOU
52. Mark Rogers - PIT
53. Bud Norris - SF, CIN

Borderline Depending on League Format

54. Alex White - SD
55. Jeff Karstens - @MIL
56. Jason Marquis - ATL, @COL
57. Erik Bedard - @MIL
58. Ricky Nolasco - WAS
59. Kyle Kendrick - NYM
60. Lucas Harrell - CIN
61. Drew Pomeranz - LAD
62. Barry Zito - @HOU
63. Wandy Rodriguez - STL
64. Tyler Chatwood - LAD
65. Jacob Turner - WAS
66. Nathan Eovaldi - NYM
67. Jeremy Hefner - @MIA
68. James McDonald - STL
69. Aaron Harang - ARI
70. Edinson Volquez - @COL
71. Clayton Richard - @COL

Extreme Caution Advised

72. Andrew Werner - ATL
73. Joe Blanton - @COL, ARI
74. Jhoulys Chacin - SD
75. Chris Volstad - SF
76. Jordan Lyles - SF
77. Chris Rusin - MIL, SF
78. Jeff Francis - LAD, SF
79. Dallas Keuchel - SF
80. Eric Stults - ATL
81. Brooks Raley - MIL
82. HOU TBD - CIN

Notes: Fernando Abad
is an option to start for the Astros this week, but the last three letters of his surname should define his big league career. ... The Dodgers reportedly were awarded the waiver claim on Josh Beckett. This is a deal that could very well happen unless Beckett vetoes it. We presume Aaron Harang would be bumped to the bullpen or released should Beckett join the Dodgers and the player, Hanley Ramirez, for whom he was once traded. ... Joe Saunders has apparently cleared waivers, so look for him to be dealt to make room for either Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs. It was a solid debut for Skaggs, so he'll stick in the major leagues as Arizona goes with a six-man rotation. ... Astros could sign Roger Clemens. Really. If you want to pass on stashing him on your roster, I'd be OK with that. ... The Mets optioned Collin McHugh to the minors after he shut out the Rockies over seven innings while striking out nine. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hefner has allowed six runs over his last 7.1 innings. Mets being the Mets? ...Mark Rogers has a 31:9 K:BB in 28.2 innings. Your patience could be rewarded here. ... The Marlins are going with Jacob Turner instead of Wade LeBlanc in their rotation. Good call. ... The good Jordan Lyles showed up against the Mets on Friday, but we just don't know what to expect from start to start. ...Here we are in September and the Cubs' best starter (by far) is Jeff Samardzija. Theo has to be kicking himself that he didn't unload Alfonso Soriano on the dumping ground that is the LA Dodgers these days. ... Lance Lynn has a 6.49 ERA in his last five starts. Might that have something to do with the fact he's already tossed 32.2 more innings this year than last? ... The Padres' Andrew Werner had a 110:31 K:BB in 126.1 minor league innings this year, so he could have continued success in that home park.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - @KC, CHW
2. Felix Hernandez - @MIN, LAA
3. David Price - @TEX, @TOR
4. Jered Weaver - BOS, @SEA
5. Chris Sale - @BAL, @DET
6. Clay Buchholz - KC, @OAK
7. James Shields - @TEX, @TOR
8. Jake Peavy - @BAL
9. Max Scherzer - CHW
10. Matt Moore - @TOR
11. CC Sabathia - TOR
12. Hiroki Kuroda - BAL
13. Brett Anderson - @CLE, BOS
14. Jason Vargas - @MIN
15. Jeremy Hellickson - @TOR
16. Doug Fister - CHW (tentative)
17. Tom Milone - @CLE, BOS
18. Scott Diamond - SEA, @KC (tentative - suspension)
19. Derek Holland - TB, @CLE
20. Jarrod Parker - @CLE
21. Matt Harrison - TB
22. Dan Straily - @CLE (tentative)
23. Yu Darvish - TB
24. Jon Lester - @LAA
25. Alex Cobb - @TEX
26. Jose Quintana - @BAL
27. Anibal Sanchez - @KC
28. Ryan Dempster - @CLE
29. Francisco Liriano - @BAL, @DET
30. David Phelps - TOR, BAL
31. Zack Greinke - BOS
32. Freddy Garcia - BAL
33. Rick Porcello - @KC
34. Ervin Santana - @SEA
35. Josh Beckett - @LAA (tentative - Dodgers?)
36. C.J. Wilson - BOS
37. Bruce Chen - DET

Borderline Depending on League Format

38. Luke Hochevar - @BOS, MIN
39. Phil Hughes - TOR
40. Wei-Yin Chen - CHW, @NYY
41. Brandon Morrow - TB
42. Sam Deduno - SEA
43. Blake Beavan - @MIN
44. Hisashi Iwakuma - @MIN, LAA
45. Zach Britton - CHW
46. Gavin Floyd - @DET
47. Dan Haren - @SEA
48. Kevin Millwood - LAA
49. Carlos Villanueva - @NYY
50. J.A. Happ - @NYY, TB
51. Brandon McCarthy - BOS
52. Corey Kluber - OAK
53. Miguel Gonzalez - CHW, @NYY
54. Justin Masterson - OAK

Extreme Caution Advised

55. Luis Mendoza - DET, MIN Cole DeVries - @KC
56. Scott Feldman - @CLE
57. Ubaldo Jimenez - TEX
58. Henderson Alvarez - TB
59. Will Smith - MIN
60. Daisuke Matsuzaka - @OAK (tentative)
61. Steve Johnson - CHW (tentative)
62. Tommy Hunter - @NYY
63. Franklin Morales - @LAA, @OAK (tentative)
64. Ricky Romero - @NYY, TB
65. Roberto Hernandez - OAK, TEX
66. Zach McAllister - OAK, TEX
67. Jeremy Guthrie - DET
68. Felix Doubront - @OAK (tentative)
69. Brian Duensing - SEA
70. Liam Hendriks - SEA, @KC

Notes:
I'm not sure what to make of the Boston pitching schedule this week. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz are the only sure things. Actually, per the above, Beckett is anything but a “sure thing.” Aaron Cook is 1-6 in his last eight starts, while Daisuke Matsuzaka and Felix Doubront (shoulder) are angling for returns. Franklin Morales has allowed 10 runs in his last 13.1 innings, but he's still listed as a starter. Just consider everything Boston “tentative” this week. ... Apparently stem cells weren't the only things Bartolo Colon was injecting into his body. Along with those and a healthy serving of donuts and chicken wings, Colon was also boosting his testosterone levels artificially. Dan Straily will benefit from Colon's 50-game suspension. ... Zach Britton replaces Tommy Hunter in the Baltimore rotation. *Collective yawn*. ... I have to wonder whether C.J. Wilson is hurt given the 13 runs he's allowed in his last two starts. ... David Phelps is expected to stay in the rotation with Ivan Nova headed to the DL. Phelps is a nice deep-league flier with a 2.69 ERA and 66:20 K:BB in 63.2 solid innings. .. “Discomfort in his groin” is not a term one wants applied to them, but that's Doug Fister. I have Fister slotted to start in the upcoming week, though it could be Drew Smyly. ... I kept expecting Ricky Romero to turn things around, but that 0:8 K:BB in his last start was the last straw. I'm done with him, at least until 2013. ... J.A. Happ has been excellent in two tough starts (TEX, DET) recently, but is trusting him a really good idea? I don't think it is. ... Eight innings of one-hit 10-K ball for Luke Hochevar last time out. Start him in AL-only formats, but I still can't trust him in most formats. ... Dan Haren is slated to pitch in Seattle this week, but manager Mike Scioscia is considering dropping him from the rotation. Given the opponent, this could be the week Haren turns things around perhaps. ... Getting shelled by the Twins isn't a good sign, so be careful with Brandon McCarthy this week. ... Jason Vargas hasn't surrendered more than three runs in any of his last 10 starts.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Stephen Strasburg - @MIA, STL
2. Justin Verlander - @KC, CHW
3. Matt Cain - @HOU, @CHC
4. Felix Hernandez - @MIN, LAA
5. David Price - @TEX, @TOR
6. Jered Weaver - BOS, @SEA
7. Chris Sale - @BAL, @DET
8. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
9. R.A. Dickey - @PHI
10. Cole Hamels - NYM
11. Clay Buchholz - KC, @OAK
12. James Shields - @TEX, @TOR
13. Madison Bumgarner - @CHC
14. Johnny Cueto - @ARI
15. Roy Halladay - @ATL
16. Jake Peavy - @BAL
17. Jordan Zimmermann - STL
18. Max Scherzer - CHW
19. Gio Gonzalez - STL
20. Cliff Lee - @ATL
21. Matt Moore - @TOR
22. A.J. Burnett - STL, @MIL
23. Adam Wainwright - @PIT
24. CC Sabathia - TOR
25. Hiroki Kuroda - BAL
26. Mat Latos - @ARI
27. Brett Anderson - @CLE, BOS
28. Kris Medlen - @SD
29. Jason Vargas - @MIN
30. Josh Johnson - NYM
31. Jake Westbrook - @PIT, @WAS
32. Edwin Jackson - STL
33. Jeremy Hellickson - @TOR
34. Marco Estrada - @CHC, PIT
35. Doug Fister - CHW (tentative)
36. Tom Milone - @CLE, BOS
37. Kyle Lohse - @PIT, @WAS
38. Scott Diamond - SEA, @KC (tentative - suspension)
39. Derek Holland - TB, @CLE
40. Jeff Samardzija - MIL
41. Ian Kennedy - @LAD
42. Chris Capuano - @COL, ARI
43. Tim Hudson - PHI
44. Jon Niese - @MIA
45. Tommy Hanson - @SD
46. Paul Maholm - @SD
47. Vance Worley - NYM, @ATL
48. Jarrod Parker - @CLE
49. Mike Leake - @HOU
50. Patrick Corbin - CIN
51. Ryan Vogelsong - @HOU
52. Matt Harrison - TB
53. Chad Billingsley - @COL
54. Ben Sheets - PHI
55. Yovani Gallardo - @CHC, PIT (attractive starts, but ...)
56. Dan Straily - @CLE (tentative)
57. Lance Lynn - @PIT
58. Yu Darvish - TB
59. Michael Fiers - @CHC
60. Jon Lester - @LAA
61. Alex Cobb - @TEX
62. Jose Quintana - @BAL
63. Anibal Sanchez - @KC
64. Wade Miley - CIN
65. Ryan Dempster - @CLE
66. Francisco Liriano - @BAL, @DET
67. Mike Minor - PHI
68. Shaun Marcum - @CHC
69. Trevor Cahill - CIN, @LAD
70. David Phelps - TOR, BAL
71. Zack Greinke - BOS
72. Freddy Garcia - BAL
73. Rick Porcello - @KC
74. Ervin Santana - @SEA
75. Tim Lincecum - @CHC
76. Josh Beckett - @LAA (tentative - Dodgers?)
77. Tyler Skaggs - CIN
78. Travis Wood - MIL, SF
79. Jaime Garcia - @WAS
80. C.J. Wilson - BOS
81. Chris Young - @PHI, @MIA
82. Mark Buehrle - NYM
83. Matt Harvey - @PHI
84. Ross Detwiler - @MIA
85. Joe Saunders - @LAD
86. Bronson Arroyo - @ARI, @HOU
87. Homer Bailey - @HOU
88. Mark Rogers - PIT
89. Bruce Chen - DET
90. Bud Norris - SF, CIN
91. Luke Hochevar - @BOS, MIN
92. Phil Hughes - TOR
93. Wei-Yin Chen - CHW, @NYY
94. Brandon Morrow - TB
95. Alex White - SD
96. Jeff Karstens - @MIL
97. Jason Marquis - ATL, @COL
98. Erik Bedard - @MIL
99. Ricky Nolasco - WAS
100. Sam Deduno - SEA

Regan, a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.

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