On Target: More Than Just The Looks

Before we start looking at the all the data Week 4 has brought us, allow me to address one thing that I've discussed back and forth with some readers via email and reiterate a point I tried to make early on in the season. While I've decided to organize the Top 60 list by target percentage, it is in no way the only statistic you should be using to make your decisions. I know that it's really easy to just look at a leaderboard and make your start/sit decisions based on the players' rankings, and while someday I hope to compile all of the data into one glorious number to make it that way, for now, you need to look at more than just the one column.

The primary reason I chose to organize by target percentage was for you to see who the top receivers (whether it's WR or TE) were for each team. It also helps illuminate one of the most basic principles – those with the greatest number of opportunities stand the best chance to put up the most points each week. The system isn't perfect, but it does help with these bye-week situations when you're trying to decide between starting Davone Bess or Alshon Jeffrey because Calvin Johnson is off in Week 5. Players on the Target Percentage Leaderboard (TPL) are, more often than not, a better bet than those that aren't listed, particularly in PPR leagues. However, once you get inside the leaderboard, your decision-making process should lead you to touchdowns, yardage and red zone statistics for your final call.

Now let's look at who was most active in Week 4 and what we can take away from it.

Top Targets from Week 4

While Brian Hartline's career day could be dismissed as a one-week wonder, I'm going to say that this just might be the tip of the iceberg. No, he's not going to get 19 targets and 12 receptions every week and no, he's certainly not going to rack up 253 yards per game, but based on his 12 targets per week average, there is obviously a fantastic on-field connection between him and rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins might prefer not to throw the ball 40-plus times a game, but Hartline is going to see the majority of looks regardless of how many times they air it out. Even better is the upcoming schedule – aside from the Week 7 bye week, the Fins are facing Cincinnati, St. Louis, the Jets, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Buffalo. I'd call those favorable match-ups and a definite reason to pick up Hartline if he's available.

While it was great seeing Marques Colston rebound, you had to be impressed with the number of looks Lance Moore got this week. The catch rate, on the other hand, was a bit disconcerting. Yes, some of those balls thrown by Drew Brees were a near impossibility, but there were others that made Moore look like Clifford Franklin before the stick'em.

But really, if there was ever a comparison to Clifford Franklin needed, it would have to go to Greg Little. Sooner or later, Brandon Weeden is going to give up on him.

Welcome back, Jason Witten. Who knew a healthy spleen was all it would take?

Roddy White was an absolute beast this week, hauling in 8-of-12 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Now Matt Ryan just has to figure out how to spread it out between White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones so that it's not feast or famine each week with those three.

A big week for Domenik Hixon here, but figuring out who gets the most work behind Victor Cruz when Hakeem Nicks is out is going to be a tough one. Between Hixon and Ramses Barden, this could be a tough roll of the dice each week. It could get even more complicated if Reuben Randle steps up and flashes some of his potential soon.

In case you needed another reason to use Danny Amendola, consider that not only is he the most targeted player on the Rams, but he recieved every red zone look this week also. Sam Bradford might have to mix it up a little to keep defenses honest, but more touchdown work for Amendola would be huge to his already outstanding value.

And the last thing before we look at and analyze the aggregate, while a season-high 10 targets for Justin Blackmon is encouraging, he didn't do too much with what he got, posting just 48 yards. If the Jaguars are serious about getting him more involved in the passing attack, he could soon be worthy of a roster spot. But for now, he's still just waiver wire material.

Target Percentage Leaderboard

Perfect examples of why you need to look beyond the target percentage: Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. Both are solid receivers and each has the trust of their respective quarterbacks (both are heavily leaned on during long third-down situations), but neither is putting up strong fantasy points due to limited yardage and few touchdowns. If either one could even sniff some extra red zone looks, there would be a serious value increase, especially in PPR leagues.

For the second week in a row, Greg Olsen was the most targeted receiver on the Panthers. While most defenses work to contain the explosiveness of Steve Smith, Cam Newton has, in the spirit of Brees and Brady, turned to his tight end for the majority of his pass attempts. With a 64.5% catch rate, Olsen certainly doesn't hurt when looking for reliability, something Brandon LaFell seems to be lacking right now.

Injuries are a primary reason for Kendall Wright's staying power here on the TPL, but there could be a significant shift coming, depending on the condition of Jake Locker's shoulder. With Matt Hasselbeck under center, a returning Kenny Britt could dominate the targets, and if Britt doesn't, then Nate Washington should. But if Locker is fine and can continue to air it out, then Wright should be able to maintain his current target percentage.

In the ongoing Eric Decker/Demaryius Thomas watch, Peyton Manning is doing an outstanding job getting both of them the ball in equal doses. However, Decker is going to ultimately have the better value if some of those extra red zone looks start to pan out.

If Andre Roberts is still on your waiver wire, then you might want to make a move on him now before his target percentage rises even more. He has emerged as a solid complementary receiver to Larry Fitzgerald and he's picking up on the red zone looks as well.

Clearly, Steve Johnson is the better value in Buffalo, but if he doesn't start to improve that catch rate, then some of those red zone looks are going to head over to Scott Chandler. That's not to say that I would start Chandler over Johnson as a flex play, but it's definitely a situation worth monitoring.

Potential Fallers from the TPL include: Nate Burleson, Brandon LaFell, Kendall Wright
Potential Risers to the TPL include: Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett, Denarius Moore, Anthony Fasano

Week 5 Matchup to Watch: Denver at New England – The epic battles between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady continue and both have the offensive weapons to put up major passing yardage and some serious total points. Brady has done a fantastic job of spreading the ball around to Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, so Champ Bailey isn't going to be able to shadow just one guy. Meanwhile, we already know Peyton's weapons, but throw in Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreesen and a Pats D that has allowed 282 passing yards per game and nine touchdowns through the air thus far and we could have ourselves a barn-burner here.

Week 5 Potential Breakouts:Andrew Hawkins, Percy Harvin, Robert Meachem (facing his old team), Mario Manningham

Week 5 Potential Busts:DeSean Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith (CAR), Steve Johnson

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Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com