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Collette Calls: NFBC ADP Movers

Jason Collette

Jason Collette

Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at theprocessreport.net. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Towers of Power Baseball Hour Podcast on iTunes. He was selected as the Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year by FSWA in 2013.

ADP is an interesting or mundane thing to track depending on your point of view. Tracking week-to-week ADP changes is an exercise in futility because any bit of news that would affect a player's status is not likely to show up right away. However, if we take month-to-month peeks at the data, we can learn more about how the fantasy marketplace is viewing certain players.

I first started tracking the NFBC ADP data back on February 7th and have compared it to the latest report provided by Greg Ambrosius on Thursday. Over the past five weeks, several players have become injured, have had awful springs, great springs, or so many fantasy pundits have written about them that their ADP has changed at least two full rounds in a 12-team mixed draft. In fact, 120 different players have seen their February 7th ADP change two rounds in either direction in the most recent report. The list is rather extensive but some of these guys deserve some commentary as to why there are rising up or sliding down the charts:

Drew Storen (-103): The signing of Rafael Soriano turns Storen from a good closer target to a middle reliever once again.
Mark Teixeira (-84): Teixeira's fantasy value was already taking a hit since the shift has turned his batting average into a similar word but a wrist injury gets him off to a late start and is likely to affect his power once he is back.
Logan Forsythe (-69): An intriguing sleeper coming into the season but he has fought a foot problem throughout much of camp while Jedd Gyorko has crushed the baseball.
David Ortiz (-59): The feet issues are definitely worrisome. The latest news says he is feeling better but he is almost certainly not going to be ready to start the season and the concern about his base affecting his power lingers.
Corey Hart (-57): If Hart can come back as quickly as he thinks he can, this provides a bargain since Hart's current ADP is 141. His return from injury presents a lesser risk than that of Teixeira.
Curtis Granderson (-53): The same concerns with Teixeira apply with Granderson to a point. He is still being drafted as a top-100 player even though he could miss the first six weeks of the season.
Darin Ruf (-53): Cinderella's chariot is looking like a pumpkin in spring training. Maybe Phillies' fans can table the 30 HR/100 RBI talks that are polluting the sports radio waves in the City of Brotherly Out Of Control Love.
Jed Lowrie (-48): He went from an everday player, when healthy, to a utility role and a pitcher's park in Oakland. It is one thing to lose the park factors, but to lose it and a guaranteed role is a double whammy to Lowrie's fantasy value.
Matt Garza (-44): Death by slider. Garza has thrown a ton of them since leaving the Rays and he too is not going be able to start on Opening Day.
Daniel Murphy (-43): Murphy has fought an intercostal muscle all spring and has not yet played in a game.
Logan Morrison (-41): Morrison, like Murphy, has not been able to play in the spring as he continues his recovery from issues in 2012.
Phil Hughes (-38): A bulging disc in his back makes the potential sleeper pick a risk once again.
Chris Young (-37): He is now the fourth outfielder with no clear path to playing time until the fragile Coco Crisp or Cespedes have injury issues.
Michael Young (-36): Has a spot to play but simply is not that good.
Miguel Gonzalez (-36): He has now fallen out of the top 420, where he actually belongs. He is as fungible as starting pitchers go.
Mike Olt (-36): Talent is not the issue here, playing time is. When it comes to someone like Olt, he is better off playing every day in Triple-A than he is riding the bench in Arlington.
Delmon Young (-35): Combine the explanations of the previous Youngs: reserve outfielder who simply isn't that good.
Jonny Gomes (-35): He should be on the short side of a platoon in Boston but says he can play every day. Trust me, he can't. The fewer at-bats he has against righties, the better.
Manny Machado (-33): The sophomore slump is a factor here, especially for someone who skipped over Triple-A and walks so infrequently.
Jhonny Peralta (-33): Shortstop is not that deep of a position for him to fall this far. This is one of the guys I would be willing to take a chance on.
Yonder Alonso (-32): Nothing has really changed with him to dictate a near three-round drop. He remains a low power option at first base.
Travis Snider (-31): He got up as high as 389 but is now out of the top-420 players.
Alexei Ramirez (-31): He's dropped out of the Top 200 overall, based on what?
Ryan Madson (-31): He is still battling his way back from offseason surgery but at 261, presents a nice saves bargain.
Michael Morse (-31): Has hit five spring homers and has dropped 30 spots. No respect I tell ya, no respect.
Gordon Beckham (-29): He went from 293 to 322, and the later ranking is more appropriate for this name who has not produced as expected.
Trevor Plouffe (-29): Most of his home runs seemingly came in the same three weeks last year and regression could return him to a has-been. Still worth a look at 279.
Adam Lind (-27): 2009 was amazing, but 2009 is never happening again.
Carl Crawford (-28): His recovery has taken longer than expected and this former fantasy stud has now fallen out of the top 150 two years removed from being a top 20 player.
Adam Dunn (-28): He has fallen to 184 now, which is a late pick for someone that could hit 40 home runs again, but could also hit .205 and negate the gains.
Tyler Skaaggs (-26): Rookies are NFBC boobie traps and Skaggs has fallen out of the top 420
Russell Martin (-26): Maybe there are a lot of Canadians upset at him for not playing in the WBC?
Cody Ross (-25): A lower leg injury in camp has him nearly sliding out of the top 300
Omar Infante (-25): No real reason for this slide as he was recovered enough from his broken hand in the World Series to play in the WBC.
Will Middlebrooks (-25): The wrist scare in early March seems to have spooked people as he has moved from the top 120 to nearly out of the top 150 which is more reasonable.

Conversely, there are even more players who have seen their ADP skyrocket over the last five weeks. Here are the top-20 helium balloons on the charts:

Julio Teheran (+117): He went from 424 to 307 in five weeks. There is upside in his arm, but wow.
Jose Veras (+114): Hello, closer role. A guy can still get 25-30 saves on a 65-win team.
David Phelps (+100): The uncertainty with Phil Hughes is Phelps' gain and he has looked good in camp.
Domonic Brown (+96): Yes, this will be the year the Phillies finally stop jerking him around and let him sink or swim. Right? Right?
Lance Berkman (+96): Sign a contract to mostly DH in a hitter's park and watch your value go from 347 to 251.
Leonys Martin (+95): Is now a top-300 player and if Ron Washington gives him enough at-bats, has the talent to be a top-200 player.
Brian Roberts (+94): He is healthy, for now. Caveat emptor in Latin translates to Brian Roberts.
Bobby Parnell (+94): Frank Francisco is “Nowhere near ready” to start the season so Parnell inherits a job he may not relinquish.
Oscar Taveras (+90): On a talent level, this makes a ton of sense. Yet, where is he going to find the playing time in that current outfield to be drafted 20 spots ahead of someone like Martin or 30 spots ahead of Brown?
Sean Marshall (+89): Um, why? If Chapman doesn't close, Broxton will.
Erasmo Ramirez (+88): I am going to claim personal responsibility for this and please try to ignore the scuttlebutt that both Blake Beavan and Jon Garland will bump Ramirez to Triple-A.
Gerrit Cole (+83): The talent is there, and the rotation spot should be there at some point.
Sergio Santos (+82): Like Madson, a risk coming back from surgery and frankly, was never that rock solid pre-injury.
Ubaldo Jimenez (+82): There is some end-game intrigue with Jimenez as the Indians' infield defense is better on paper than it was last season.
Chris Carter (+81): Gained a better ballpark and clearer path to playing time in trade from Oakland to Houston.
Chad Billingsley (+80): 2012 elbow issues gave way to 2013 groin issues. He's still outside of the top 300, but this spike is a headscratcher.
Adam Eaton (+77): Eaton is now in the top 175 based on a small sample size potential of last year and inflated PCL numbers. Did Desmond Jennings not teach us anything last year?
Trevor Rosenthal (+77): He has officially been moved to the bullpen which diminishes his value. That said, Jaime Garcia is still a health risk and Rosenthal would be next in line.
Ivan Nova (+77): The skills are there, and will shine through if he can get his HR/9 issue under control again. I am targeting him at 344.
Vinnie Pestano (+75): Chris Perez is sore, so we must run out and get the guy that can't get lefties out! Pass

If you would like to see the entire worksheet for this, please click here and good luck in your draft this weekend!