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Pitching Value Meter: LA's K-Man

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week July 1-7

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - at COL, at SF (even trip to Coors can't take the top spot from Kershaw)
2. Jordan Zimmermann - MIL, SD
3. Patrick Corbin - at NYM, COL (June was easily his "worst" month; 3.05 ERA in 41.3 IP)
4. Lance Lynn - at LAA, MIA
5. Stephen Strasburg - MIL, SD (no more than 2 ER in last 8 GS: 1.47 ERA in 49 IP)
6. Kris Medlen - MIA, at PHI (2.14 ERA, 6-plus IP in all five June starts)
7. Homer Bailey - SF, SEA
8. Matt Harvey - ARI (only an extra start keeps those seven ahead of him)
9. Adam Wainwright - at LAA
10. Cliff Lee - ATL (7-plus in 10 straight: 2.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 71 K, 6.5 K:BB in 76.7 IP)
11. Mat Latos - SEA (25-year old rarely discussed among top young stars)
12. Matt Cain - at CIN (closed June with 4 straight QS)
13. Mike Minor - MIA
14. Madison Bumgarner - LAD
15. Gio Gonzalez - SD
16. Jeff Samardzija - PIT (too hittable in June, 4.54 ERA, but still fanned 35 in 33.7 IP)
17. Shelby Miller - at LAA (either smashed or dominant in six June starts)
18. Jose Fernandez - SD, at STL
19. Jeff Locke - PHI, at CHC (40 H in last 10 spanning 62.7 IP: 1.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
20. Cole Hamels - at PIT, ATL
21. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at SF
22. Francisco Liriano - at CHC (went at least six in all five June starts)
23. Mike Leake - SF (8 ER in last 8 GS: 1.31 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 4.4 K:BB in 55 IP)
24. Julio Teheran - MIA
25. Andrew Cashner - at WAS (workload increasing: 29.7 IP in four June starts with 2.73 ERA)
26. Gerrit Cole - PHI (No. 1 overall pick showing why he earned the distinction in 2011)
27. Tim Hudson - at PHI
28. Zack Greinke - at COL (ERA indicators leave him overrated, most wounds are self-inflicted)
29. Jorge de la Rosa - at ARI
30. Dillon Gee - ARI (2.62 ERA in last five even with 5 ER in 5 IP at PHI last time out)
31. Tyler Chatwood - LAD (2.12 ERA in 3 GS since DL return)
32. Eric Stults - at BOS (no more than 2 ER in five June starts: 1.98 ERA in 36.3 IP)
33. Travis Wood - at OAK
34. Yovani Gallardo - at WAS, NYM
35. Scott Feldman - at OAK, PIT
36. Kyle Lohse - NYM (rebounded from ugly 6.51 ERA in May to post a 2.45 in June)
37. Paul Maholm - at PHI
38. Johnny Cueto/Tony Cingrani - SF (Cueto left hurt in last start, Cingrani likely to replace him)
39. Jacob Turner - at ATL (want to see better supporting skills, but can't deny the excellent results)
40. Ricky Nolasco - at ATL
41. Jhoulys Chacin - LAD (if only he could recapture previous K levels; 15 scoreless IP streak)
42. Matt Garza - at OAK (huge 3-start run of 0.82 ERA is schedule influenced: at NYM, HOU, at MIL)
43. Zack Wheeler - at MIL
44. Bronson Arroyo - SF, SEA (7 ER in OAK shows why I'm reticent to fully trust results; blowup always around corner)
45. Kyle Kendrick - ATL
46. Ross Detwiler - MIL
47. Jeremy Hefner - ARI, at MIL (June: 1.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, but just 1-1 thanks to poor support)
48. Robbie Erlin - at BOS, at WAS (trip to BOS tempers expectations, but I'm definitely a huge fan)
49. Tim Lincecum - at CIN, LAD
50. Wade Miley - at NYM, COL
51. Shaun Marcum - ARI, at MIL
52. Ian Kennedy - at NYM
53. Nathan Eovaldi - at STL (would rate high with a better matchup, but I'm buying long-term for sure)
54. Jeanmar Gomez - PHI (strong in return from DL)
55. Randall Delgado - at NYM
56. Trevor Cahill - COL
57. John Lannan - at PIT
58. Roy Oswalt - LAD, at ARI (16 K in 11 IP)
59. Charlie Morton - at CHC (nice trio of outings to start season, including at CIN, at LAA)
60. Jake Westbrook - MIA (terrified of his 1.0 K:BB, but opponent keeps him barely above the cut line)

CAUTION:

61. Jason Marquis - at MIA, at WAS (1.2 K:BB and 1.5 HR:9 ... K:BB should never be lower than HR/9)
62. Tom Koehler - at ATL, at STL (inconsistent work and two tough opponents says be careful)
63. Jonathan Pettibone - at PIT
64. Drew Pomeranz - at ARI
65. Edwin Jackson - PIT
66. Barry Zito - at CIN
67. Wily Peralta - at WAS, NYM
68. Michael Kickham - at CIN, LAD (a lesser writer would tell you to kick him to the curb)
69. Chris Capuano - at COL
70. Edinson Volquez - at BOS
71. Donovan Hand - at WAS
72. Taylor Jordan - MIL
73. Tyler Lyons - MIA
74. Stephen Fife - at SF
75. Johnny Hellweg - at WAS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - HOU (just imagine what his ERA would be if he wasn't giving up 1.2 HR/9)
2. Max Scherzer - at TOR (0.90 WHIP and 5.2 K/BB says 3.10 ERA could be even lower)
3. Chris Sale - at TB (31-percent K rate in June with outings of 14, 13)
4. David Price - at HOU, CWS (would be the top AL arm if he wasn't returning from a long DL stint and carrying a 5.24 ERA)
5. John Lackey - SD, at LAA (three straight 7-IP/2-ER outings aided 3.03 ERA in June)
6. Doug Fister - at TOR, at CLE
7. James Shields - CLE (finally earns decision and win in sixth June start)
8. Felix Hernandez - at TEX
9. Hisashi Iwakuma - at TEX (4 ER in three straight, but still has 1.15 WHIP and 4.7 K:BB in that span)
10. Derek Holland - SEA
11. Jarrod Parker - CHC (intrigued to see how he finishes huge June with Saturday start v. STL)
12. Hiroki Kuroda - BAL
13. Justin Verlander - at TOR (hardly a slug, but not the untouchable JV of 2011-2012)
14. Justin Masterson - DET
15. A.J. Griffin - CHC, at KC (capped big June with 2-hitter: 2.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP in 34.7 IP)
16. Matt Moore - at HOU, CWS (not going to get a better setup to right the ship)
17. Jered Weaver - STL, BOS (sputtered through June, though gem at DET is encouraging)
18. CC Sabathia - at MIN
19. Ervin Santana - OAK (just 1 HR in June en route to 1.56 ERA over 34.7 IP)
20. Bartolo Colon - CHC (opponent doesn't matter, venue doesn't matter; just flat out good)
21. Chris Tillman - at NYY (allowed more than 3 ER once in his last 13 GS: 3.14 ERA over 80.3 IP)
22. Corey Kluber - at KC
23. Miguel Gonzalez - at CWS (allowed more than 3 ER once since May 3)
24. Jon Lester - SD (tough June schedule, but it's no excuse for his horrid 7.62 ERA)
25. Jeremy Hellickson - CWS (turning a corner with three gems in last four outings?)
26. R.A. Dickey - DET, MIN (0, 7, 1, 6, 0 ER in June; don't be surprised if DET rips him and then a gem v. MIN)
27. Andy Pettitte - at MIN, BAL
28. Bud Norris - TB
29. Josh Johnson - DET
30. Rick Porcello - at CLE (two huge lineups pasted him, erasing some gains of nine-start stretch before)
31. C.J. Wilson - BOS (clockwork implosion every 4-5 starts limits upside)
32. David Phelps - at MIN
33. Jerome Williams - STL (3.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP as SP, but tough opponent in STL)
34. Tommy Milone - at KC (usually a home-only guy, but this venue sets up nicely)
35. Dan Straily - at KC
36. Jordan Lyles - TB
37. Jason Hammel - at CWS, at NYY (decent work lately, friendly schedule earns him a look this week)
38. Phil Hughes - at MIN, BAL
39. Scott Kazmir - at KC, DET
40. John Danks - BAL, at TB (really like him as an asset the rest of the way even if there are short-term bumps)
41. Dallas Keuchel - TB, at TEX (unloaded 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 32 K, and 6.4 K:BB in last 34 IP)
42. Erik Bedard - TB, at TEX (like Keuchel he's on fire, but tough slate tempers expectations a bit)
43. Ryan Dempster - at LAA (riding a string of 6 straight QS)
44. Chris Archer - at HOU
45. Ubaldo Jimenez - DET (looking to cap strong June on Saturday; 2.67 ERA in 27 IP)

CAUTION

46. Felix Doubront - at LAA (2.73 ERA in June, including vs. LAA, BAL, TB, DET)
47. Jeremy Guthrie - CLE
48. Hector Santiago - BAL
49. Jose Quintana - BAL
50. Esmil Rogers - DET
51. Samuel Deduno - NYY, at TOR
52. Nick Tepesch - HOU
53. Kevin Correia - at TOR (3.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4.8 K:BB in 30.7 June IP)
54. Joe Blanton - STL
55. Allen Webster - SD
56. Martin Perez - SEA
57. Kyle Gibson - NYY
58. Aaron Harang - at CIN
59. Jeremy Bonderman - at CIN
60. Luis Mendoza - CLE, OAK
61. Jose Alvarez - at TOR, at CLE (one of these likely going to Anibal Sanchez; didn't list Sanchez because these things are always subject to change)
62. Justin Grimm - SEA, HOU
63. Scott Diamond - NYY, at TOR
64. Kevin Gausman - at CWS
65. Roberto Hernandez - at HOU
66. Dylan Axelrod - at TB
67. Lucas Harrell - at TEX
68. Mark Buehrle - MIN
69. Joe Saunders - at TEX, at CIN
70. Chien-Ming Wang - DET, MIN
71. Wade Davis - OAK
72. Zach Britton - at NYY
73. Carlos Carrasco - DET
74. Tommy Hanson fill-in - BOS
75. P.J. Walters - NYY

MLB TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - at COL, at SF
2. Jordan Zimmermann - MIL, SD
3. Patrick Corbin - at NYM, COL
4. Lance Lynn - at LAA, MIA
5. Stephen Strasburg - MIL, SD
6. Kris Medlen - MIA, at PHI
7. Homer Bailey - SF, SEA
8. Matt Harvey - ARI
9. Yu Darvish - HOU
10. Adam Wainwright - at LAA
11. Max Scherzer - at TOR
12. Cliff Lee - ATL
13. Chris Sale - at TB
14. Mat Latos - SEA
15. David Price - at HOU, CWS
16. John Lackey - SD, at LAA
17. Doug Fister - at TOR, at CLE
18. James Shields - CLE
19. Matt Cain - at CIN
20. Mike Minor - MIA
21. Felix Hernandez - at TEX
22. Hisashi Iwakuma - at TEX
23. Derek Holland - SEA
24. Jarrod Parker - CHC
25. Madison Bumgarner - LAD
26. Gio Gonzalez - SD
27. Jeff Samardzija - PIT
28. Shelby Miller - at LAA
29. Hiroki Kuroda - BAL
30. Jose Fernandez - SD, at STL
31. Jeff Locke - PHI, at CHC
32. Justin Verlander - at TOR
33. Justin Masterson - DET
34. A.J. Griffin - CHC, at KC
35. Matt Moore - at HOU, CWS
36. Jered Weaver - STL, BOS
37. Cole Hamels - at PIT, ATL
38. CC Sabathia - at MIN
39. Ervin Santana - OAK
40. Bartolo Colon - CHC
41. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at SF
42. Francisco Liriano - at CHC
43. Mike Leake - SF
44. Julio Teheran - MIA
45. Chris Tillman - at NYY
46. Corey Kluber - at KC
47. Miguel Gonzalez - at CWS
48. Andrew Cashner - at WAS
49. Gerrit Cole - PHI
50. Tim Hudson - at PHI
51. Jon Lester - SD
52. Zack Greinke - at COL
53. Jorge de la Rosa - at ARI
54. Dillon Gee - ARI
55. Tyler Chatwood - LAD
56. Eric Stults - at BOS
57. Travis Wood - at OAK
58. Jeremy Hellickson - CWS
59. Yovani Gallardo - at WAS, NYM
60. Scott Feldman - at OAK, PIT
61. R.A. Dickey - DET, MIN
62. Andy Pettitte - at MIN, BAL
63. Josh Johnson - DET
64. Kyle Lohse - NYM
65. Bud Norris - TB
66. Paul Maholm - at PHI
67. Rick Porcello - at CLE
68. C.J. Wilson - BOS
69. Johnny Cueto/Tony Cingrani - SF
70. Jacob Turner - at ATL
71. David Phelps - at MIN
72. Jerome Williams - STL
73. Ricky Nolasco - at ATL
74. Jhoulys Chacin - LAD
75. Matt Garza - at OAK
76. Tommy Milone - at KC
77. Dan Straily - at KC
78. Jordan Lyles - TB
79. Zack Wheeler - at MIL
80. Bronson Arroyo - SF, SEA
81. Jason Hammel - at CWS, at NYY
82. Kyle Kendrick - ATL
83. Ross Detwiler - MIL
84. Jeremy Hefner - ARI, at MIL
85. Robbie Erlin - at BOS, at WAS
86. Tim Lincecum - at CIN, LAD
87. Wade Miley - at NYM, COL
88. Shaun Marcum - ARI, at MIL
89. Jason Hammel - at CWS, at NYY
90. Ian Kennedy - at NYM
91. Nathan Eovaldi - at STL
92. Jeanmar Gomez - PHI
93. Randall Delgado - at NYM
94. Trevor Cahill - COL
95. John Lannan - at PIT
96. Roy Oswalt - LAD, at ARI
97. Phil Hughes - at MIN, BAL
98. Scott Kazmir - at KC, DET
99. John Danks - BAL, at TB
100. Dallas Keuchel - TB, at TEX

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