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Pitching Value Meter: Maximum Effort

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

Note:
The All-Star Game presents a challenge this week. All-Star pitchers scheduled for Sunday, July 14, likely won't make those starts in anticipation of pitching in the All-Star Game the following Tuesday.

That includes, in the AL:

Bartolo Colon, A's
Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
Justin Verlander, Tigers

In the NL:

Matt Harvey, Mets
Jeff Locke, Pirates
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Travis Wood, Cubs

Rotations likely will be juggled in those cases, but since there is no way to predict how that will shake out, rankings are based on current schedules.

For the week July 8-14

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Matt Harvey - at SF, at PIT (how much do fantasy owners drool when they see a two-start week for Harvey?)
2. Adam Wainwright - HOU
3. Stephen Strasburg - at MIA (seven shutout IP in last outing pushes him to a 1.29 ERA over last 56 IP, spanning nine starts)
4. Cliff Lee - WAS
5. Clayton Kershaw - COL
6. Mike Minor - at MIA, CIN (most impressive aspect of breakthrough season has been the 24-percent K rate)
7. Homer Bailey - at MIL, at ATL
8. Shelby Miller - HOU, at CHC (great two-start slate to help erase some of the damage of a 5.55 ERA in his last five)
9. Mat Latos - at ATL
10. Madison Bumgarner - at SD
11. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
12. Jordan Zimmermann - at PHI (modest K rate plus a handful of two-start guys keeps him lower than his pure talent merits)
13. Patrick Corbin - MIL (K rate is just 17.5 percent in last 7 GS after a 21 percent through his first 10)
14. Lance Lynn - at CHC
15. A.J. Burnett - NYM (returns from the DL on Sunday at CHC)
16. Cole Hamels - WAS, CWS (two of the worst teams vs. LHP sets up nicely for Hamels)
17. Julio Teheran - at MIA, CIN
18. Jeff Locke - OAK, NYM
19. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at ARI (allowed a high of three runs - and just twice - in last 10 GS)
20. Francisco Liriano - OAK
21. Kris Medlen - CIN
22. Matt Cain - NYM (just when he looked like reliable ace-self again, he lays an egg vs. LAD)
23. Jeff Samardzija - LAA
24. Jose Fernandez - WAS (value in redraft leagues plummets each start with looming IP limit)
25. Tony Cingrani - at MIL, at ATL
26. Matt Garza - at CWS, STL (we'll see if he's a Cub for either of these, let alone both)
27. Zack Greinke - at ARI, COL
28. Travis Wood - LAA, STL (he's only gone fewer than 6 IP once in 17 GS this year)
29. Kyle Lohse - CIN, at ARI
30. Ricky Nolasco - at ARI, COL (slated for Monday before trade, but even Tuesday with LAD offers 2-start week)
31. Tyler Chatwood - at SD, at LAD
32. Eric Stults - COL, SF (shaky in last two; let's see how a pair of home starts go before overreacting)
33. Mike Leake - at MIL
34. Gerrit Cole - OAK (132 IP last year; at 98 now so he should finish the season without an insane jump)
35. Jorge De La Rosa - at SD
36. Dillon Gee - at SF (horrid first 10 GS masks the 2.47 ERA from latest seven)
37. Andrew Cashner - COL
38. Paul Maholm - at MIA
39. Jacob Turner - ATL
40. Nathan Eovaldi - WAS (acquitted himself well at STL; sharp through 4 GS)
41. Jhoulys Chacin - at SD, at LAD
42. Randall Delgado - LAD, MIL (really sharp since promotion)
43. Ross Detwiler - at PHI, at MIA
44. Tim Lincecum - NYM, at SD (if you're not using him here, you're not using him anywhere)
45. Ian Kennedy - LAD, MIL
46. John Lannan - WAS, CWS (again, two horrid teams v. LHP makes a nice spot-start week)
47. Robbie Erlin - SF (trip to BOS worried me, but still like him overall)
48. Tim Hudson - CIN
49. Yovani Gallardo - at ARI
50. Shaun Marcum - at PIT
51. Bronson Arroyo - at ATL
52. Jeremy Hefner - at PIT
53. Barry Zito - NYM, at SD (similar to Lincecum in that he's either usable here or completely useless)
54. Charlie Morton - NYM
55. Jake Westbrook - at CHC
56. Dan Haren - at PHI (let's see if it was injury or a complete loss of skill; I'm betting the former)
57. Kyle Kendrick - WAS
58. Joe Kelly - at CHC (second straight favorable start; wasn't terrible vs. MIA)
59. Wade Miley - MIL

CAUTION

60. Henderson Alvarez - ATL
61. Edwin Jackson - STL
62. Carlos Villanueva - STL
63. Tyler Skaggs - LAD
64. Roy Oswalt - at LAD
65. Jason Marquis - SF
66. Zack Wheeler - at SF
67. Chris Capuano - COL (I'm guessing on how LAD adjusts their staff after Nolasco trade)
68. Jonathan Pettibone - CWS
69. Drew Pomeranz - at LAD
70. Tom Gorzelanny - at ARI
71. Tom Koehler - ATL, WAS (not sure if he'll be Nolasco's replacement or if he'll go right into his spot if so ... stay tuned)
72. Edinson Volquez - COL, SF
73. Wily Peralta - CIN, at ARI
74. Chad Gaudin - at SD
75. Donovan Hand - CIN

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Max Scherzer - at CLE, TEX (not an easy slate, but you don't get to 13-0 by simply beating up on tomato cans)
2. Felix Hernandez - BOS, LAA
3. Justin Verlander - CWS, TEX (keep trying to buy, worried owners might just see this as a chance to sell)
4. Hisashi Iwakuma - BOS, LAA
5. CC Sabathia - KC, MIN
6. James Shields - at NYY, at CLE (can't blame his support lately, but I'm not giving up)
7. David Price - HOU
8. Anibal Sanchez - CWS (excellent in return from DL at CLE)
9. Yu Darvish - at BAL (bunch of two-start guys and a tough matchup is the only way he ends up ninth)
10. Chris Sale - at DET
11. John Lackey - at OAK (QS in 8 of 9 yielding a 2.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 59.7 IP)
12. Bartolo Colon - at PIT, BOS
13. Derek Holland - at BAL, at DET (tough slate but has talent to at least survive if not excel)
14. Hiroki Kuroda - MIN
15. Matt Moore - MIN (posted 1.40 ERA in his last four including a 17.3 scoreless IP streak)
16. Jered Weaver - at SEA
17. Ervin Santana - at NYY (he's gone 7-plus in 12 of 17 and hasn't gone fewer than 6 IP even once)
18. Doug Fister - TEX (looking to rebound vs. TEX after getting dealt one of his worst outings of the year in Arlington on May 19)
19. Jarrod Parker - BOS
20. Jeremy Hellickson - MIN (surging with Moore, posting 1.38 ERA in last 4 GS over 26 IP)
21. Justin Masterson - TOR
22. Jon Lester - at SEA, at OAK (gem vs. SD doesn't allay all fears)
23. Miguel Gonzalez - TEX
24. Chris Tillman - TEX
25. A.J. Griffin - BOS (after I praised him for avoiding the implosion, the Cubs of all teams hang 7 ER on him)
26. Rick Porcello - CWS (escaped gauntlet with a passable 4.25 ERA that included starts at BAL, CLE, at MIN, BAL, LAA, at TB and at CLE)
27. C.J. Wilson - at CHC (good at winning the ones he's supposed to with an occasional gem vs. a good team)
28. Bud Norris - at STL (2.29 ERA over last 59 IP will be tested in STL)
29. John Danks - at PHI (each start is more encouraging than the last)
30. Corey Kluber - KC (skills are still rock solid, but results have faltered some lately)
31. Andy Pettitte - KC
32. Tommy Milone - at PIT (I'll copy myself from last week: usually a home-only guy, but this venue sets up nicely)
33. Dan Straily - at PIT (rarely struggles with the light-hitting teams)
34. Ryan Dempster - at SEA (solid, but not special especially since the Ks have faded drastically since April)
35. Jerome Williams - at SEA
36. Scott Feldman - TEX, TOR (tough two-start slate in AL return)
37. Phil Hughes - KC, MIN (nervous, but he's looked good in his last two)
38. Scott Kazmir - DET, KC
39. R.A. Dickey - at BAL (loves to erase every span of good work with a 6 ER outing)
40. Dallas Keuchel - at TB
41. Erik Bedard - at TB
42. Ivan Nova - KC (2.95 ERA in 21.3 IP since DL return including CG vs. BAL)
43. Joe Blanton - at CHC
44. Felix Doubront - at SEA (2.87 ERA and 52 Ks in last 10 GS spanning 59.7 IP)
45. Chris Archer - MIN, HOU (MIN start is no walkover, but this is a nice two-start setup)
46. Hector Santiago - CHC, at PHI
47. Jose Quintana - at DET, at PHI
48. Samuel Deduno - at TB, at NYY

CAUTION

49. Josh Johnson - at CLE, at BAL (hard to have any confidence here; even with 5 unearned he wasn't throwing well vs. DET)
50. Martin Perez - at BAL, at DET (ERA says start, skills say relax a bit)
51. Ubaldo Jimenez - TOR, KC
52. Jeremy Guthrie - at NYY, at CLE
53. Jordan Lyles - at STL (Norris has the longer track record so he gets the trust in STL)
54. Jason Hammel - TOR
55. Esmil Rogers - at CLE
56. Nick Tepesch - at BAL
57. Kevin Correia - at TB
58. Roberto Hernandez - MIN, HOU
59. Zach Britton - TEX, TOR (keeping him on the watchlist, but this pair is tough)
60. Allen Webster - at SEA, at OAK
61. Kyle Gibson - at TB, at NYY
62. Mark Buehrle - at CLE
63. Joe Saunders - LAA
64. Luis Mendoza - at CLE
65. Justin Grimm - at DET
66. Scott Diamond - at NYY
67. Dylan Axelrod - at DET
68. Lucas Harrell - at TB
69. Wade Davis - at NYY
70. Todd Redmond - at BAL
71. Mike Pelfrey - at TB
72. Carlos Carrasco - TOR
73. Aaron Harang - BOS
74. Jeremy Bonderman - BOS
75. LAA Fifth Starter - at SEA

MLB TOP 100

1. Matt Harvey - at SF, at PIT
2. Max Scherzer - at CLE, TEX
3. Felix Hernandez - BOS, LAA
4. Justin Verlander - CWS, TEX
5. Adam Wainwright - HOU
6. Stephen Strasburg - at MIA
7. Cliff Lee - WAS
8. Clayton Kershaw - COL
9. Mike Minor - at MIA, CIN
10. Homer Bailey - at MIL, at ATL
11. Shelby Miller - HOU, at CHC
12. Mat Latos - at ATL
13. Madison Bumgarner - at SD
14. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
15. Hisashi Iwakuma - BOS, LAA
16. CC Sabathia - KC, MIN
17. James Shields - at NYY, at CLE
18. David Price - HOU
19. Anibal Sanchez - CWS
20. Yu Darvish - at BAL
21. Jordan Zimmermann - at PHI
22. Patrick Corbin - MIL
23. Chris Sale - at DET
24. John Lackey - at OAK
25. Lance Lynn - at CHC
26. A.J. Burnett - NYM
27. Cole Hamels - WAS, CWS
28. Julio Teheran - at MIA, CIN
29. Jeff Locke - OAK, NYM
30. Bartolo Colon - at PIT, BOS
31. Derek Holland - at BAL, at DET
32. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at ARI
33. Hiroki Kuroda - MIN
34. Matt Moore - MIN
35. Francisco Liriano - OAK
36. Jered Weaver - at SEA
37. Ervin Santana - at NYY
38. Doug Fister - TEX
39. Jarrod Parker - BOS
40. Kris Medlen - CIN
41. Matt Cain - NYM
42. Jeff Samardzija - LAA
43. Jose Fernandez - WAS
44. Tony Cingrani - at MIL, at ATL
45. Matt Garza - at CWS, STL
46. Zack Greinke - at ARI, COL
47. Travis Wood - LAA, STL
48. Kyle Lohse - CIN, at ARI
49. Ricky Nolasco - at ARI, COL
50. Tyler Chatwood - at SD, at LAD
51. Eric Stults - COL, SF
52. Mike Leake - at MIL
53. Jeremy Hellickson - MIN
54. Justin Masterson - TOR
55. Gerrit Cole - OAK
56. Jorge De La Rosa - at SD
57. Dillon Gee - at SF
58. Jon Lester - at SEA, at OAK
59. Miguel Gonzalez - TEX
60. Chris Tillman - TEX
61. Andrew Cashner - COL
62. Paul Maholm - at MIA
63. Jacob Turner - ATL
64. A.J. Griffin - BOS
65. Rick Porcello - CWS
66. C.J. Wilson - at CHC
67. Bud Norris - at STL
68. John Danks - at PH
69. Nathan Eovaldi - WAS
70. Jhoulys Chacin - at SD, at LAD
71. Randall Delgado - LAD, MIL
72. Ross Detwiler - at PHI, at MIA
73. Tim Lincecum - NYM, at SD
74. Ian Kennedy - LAD, MIL
75. Corey Kluber - KC
76. Andy Pettitte - KC
77. Tommy Milone - at PIT
78. Dan Straily - at PIT
79. Ryan Dempster - at SEA
80. Jerome Williams - at SEA
81. Scott Feldman - TEX, TOR
82. Phil Hughes - KC, MIN
83. Scott Kazmir - DET, KC
84. Josh Johnson - at CLE, at BAL
85. R.A. Dickey - at BAL
86. Dallas Keuchel - at TB
87. Erik Bedard - at TB
88. Joe Blanton - at CHC
89. Chris Archer - MIN, HOU
90. John Lannan - WAS, CWS
91. Robbie Erlin - SF
92. Tim Hudson - CIN
93. Yovani Gallardo - at ARI
94. Shaun Marcum - at PIT
95. Bronson Arroyo - at ATL
96. Jeremy Hefner - at PIT
97. Barry Zito - NYM, at SD
98. Charlie Morton - NYM
99. Jake Westbrook - at CHC
100. Felix Doubront - at SEA

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