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Pitching Value Meter: Max is Top Dog

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week July 22-28

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Patrick Corbin - CHC, SD (two juicy starts earns him top billing for the Senior Circuit)
2. Adam Wainwright - at ATL
3. Matt Harvey - at WAS (Harvey faces Lee, Zimmermann back-to-back)
4. Clayton Kershaw - CIN
5. Stephen Strasburg - PIT
6. Gio Gonzalez - PIT
7. Matt Garza - at ARI, at SF (we continued the dance: will he even make the ARI start with the Cubs?)
8. Jose Fernandez - at COL, PIT (all four of these next 2-start guys have at least one tough matchup hence the 1-start studs above them)
9. Julio Teheran - at NYM, STL
10. Travis Wood - at ARI, at SF
11. Shelby Miller - PHI, at ATL (fatigue of MLB season or league catching up? Don't panic yet)
12. Mat Latos -at LAD
13. Francisco Liriano - at WAS
14. A.J. Burnett - at WAS (WAS no longer easy, but these two Pirates start regardless of opponent)
15. Madison Bumgarner - CHC
16. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM
17. Cliff Lee - at DET (Philly super-studs drop as low as you'll ever really see them thanks to Motown trip)
18. Cole Hamels - at DET
19. Mike Leake - at SF (allowed more than 4 ER once in 18 starts and not since April 12)
20. Homer Bailey - at LAD
21. Zack Greinke - CIN
22. Lance Lynn - PHI
23. Matt Cain - CHC (good starts for Lynn and Cain to get on track - or stay on track if they succeed over the weekend)
24. Mike Minor - STL
25. Kyle Lohse - SD
26. Jeremy Hefner - ATL (hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in last 10 before Friday's shelling by PHI)
27. Jeff Locke - at MIA (only this low because he doesn't log many Ks and skills don't back ERA long-term)
28. Ricky Nolasco - at TOR
29. Paul Maholm - at NYM
30. Tim Hudson - at NYM
31. Dillon Gee - ATL, at WAS (even with two 5-ER starts in last 9 he has a 2.67 ERA)
32. Tim Lincecum - CIN, CHC (a big layoff and two home starts is great way to follow no-hitter)
33. Chris Capuano - at TOR, CIN (amazing or terrible recently: 1, 1, 5, 3, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0 ER in last 9)
34. Bronson Arroyo - at SF, at LAD (far from a favorite, but has a 2.96 ERA in his last 8 spanning 51.7 IP)
35. Tony Cingrani - at SF, at LAD (technically CIN will be the home team in SF during Cingrani's start, but it's in AT&T Park)
36. Andrew Cashner - at MIL, at ARI
37. Dan Haren - PIT, NYM (gets a second straight friendly slate)
38. Kris Medlen - at NYM, STL
39. Gerrit Cole - at WAS, at MIA
40. Charlie Morton - at WAS, at MIA (MIA start helps mitigate WAS risk for both Pirates)
41. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at TOR, CIN (2.96 ERA since April not backed by skills: 14-percent K rate, 9-percent BB rate)
42. Jeff Samardzija - at ARI
43. Zack Wheeler - ATL
44. Randall Delgado - SD (5 of 6 quality starts heading into his SF outing this weekend)
45. Jorge De La Rosa - MIA
46. Tyler Chatwood - CHC
47. Edwin Jackson - at SF (advanced indicators suggest skills have been worth an ERA nearly a run and a half lower)
48. Chad Gaudin - CIN (quietly doin' work for SF)
49. Carlos Villanueva - at ARI
50. Wade Miley - CHC
51. Yovani Gallardo - SD

CAUTION

52. Jhoulys Chacin - MIA, MIL (4.48 ERA at home, 1.90 on the road; even with MIA, I don't love this)
53. Eric Stults - at ARI (opposite of Chacin: 2.45 ERA at home, 4.31 on the road)
54. Nathan Eovaldi - at COL
55. Jacob Turner - at COL (sitting this one out with the MIA youngsters in Coors)
56. Kyle Kendrick - at STL (overall about average, but wouldn't mess with a trip to STL)
57. Juan Nicasio - MIA
58. Henderson Alvarez - PIT
59. Ian Kennedy - CHC
60. Edinson Volquez - at MIL
61. Joe Kelly - at ATL
62. Wily Peralta - at COL
63. Carlos Torres - ATL, at WAS
64. Taylor Jordan - PIT, NYM
65. Tyler Skaggs - CHC, SD
66. Sean O'Sullivan - at MIL, at ARI
67. Jonathan Pettibone - at STL, at DET
68. John Lannan - at STL, at DET
69. Tom Koehler - at COL, PIT
70. Donovan Hand - SD, at COL
71. Tom Gorzelanny - SD, at COL
72. Drew Pomeranz - MIA, MIL
73. Jason Marquis - at MIL
74. Jake Westbrook - PHI
75. WAS fill-in - NYM (Detwiler's not ready so Jordan stays on rotation; this could be Nate Karns who has a 1.57 ERA in July at AA)
76. Mike Kickham - CIN
77. CIN fill-in - at SF (8 games this week, including DH in SF, so someone like Pedro Villarreal or Greg Reynolds likely will come up)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Max Scherzer - at CWS, at PHI (easily the top dog)
2. Yu Darvish - NYY, at CLE (returning from the disabled list Monday)
3. Jarrod Parker - at HOU, LAA (his last 12: 2.49 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 79.7 IP)
4. Chris Sale - DET, KC
5. Felix Hernandez - MIN
6. Anibal Sanchez - at CWS
7. Justin Verlander - at CWS (ASB gave quad rest; I like him to avenge the CWS disaster)
8. David Price - at BOS (4 ER in 7 IP vs. TOR on Friday, but I'm excited to see how he fares vs. perhaps the league's best)
9. Hisashi Iwakuma - MIN
10. Matt Moore - at BOS, at NYY (BOS start keeps him below some one-start studs)
11. Alexi Ogando - NYY, at CLE (also returning from the DL for TEX)
12. John Lackey - TB (This year: 8.10 ERA vs. TB, 2.19 ERA vs. rest of the league)
13. Bartolo Colon - LAA
14. Doug Fister - PHI
15. Jered Weaver - MIN
16. Felix Doubront - TB (quietly picking up all of the Lester slack)
17. Derek Holland - NYY
18. James Shields - BAL
19. Ervin Santana - BAL (he and Shields weren't supported in several gems and now get DET/BAL back-to-back)
20. Hiroki Kuroda - at TEX
21. Jeremy Hellickson - at BOS (like Moore and Price, he's dinged a little for a tough BOS start)
22. Bud Norris - OAK
23. Corey Kluber - TEX (TEX hasn't been as frightening for pitchers lately)
24. CC Sabathia - TB
25. Hector Santiago - DET, KC (actually has 0.80 better ERA as starter: 3.13 in 69 IP)
26. Rick Porcello - at CWS, at PHI
27. Ivan Nova - at TEX, TB (on fire, but this is a really tough pair of matchups)
28. Josh Johnson - LAD, HOU (skills are there, but home runs are destroying him)
29. Miguel Gonzalez - at KC
30. A.J. Griffin - at HOU
31. Jake Peavy - DET (will he be a White Sock still?)
32. John Danks - DET
33. Justin Masterson - TEX (reiterating from last PVM - first 10: 2.83 ERA; last 10: 4.68 ERA; the difference is OPS vs. LHB: .621 to .846)
34. C.J. Wilson - at OAK
35. Wei-Yin Chen - at KC (his return could really spur O's in second half)
36. Scott Kazmir - at SEA
37. Jon Lester - at BAL (O's aren't killer vs. LHP, but Lester hasn't been killer vs. anyone lately)
38. R.A. Dickey - HOU (so up and down, and the downs are devastating; surely he can thwart HOU, right?)
39. Erasmo Ramirez - CLE, MIN (getting shelled by BOS in season debut is forgivable)
40. Samuel Deduno - at LAA, at SEA
41. Scott Feldman - at KC, BOS
42. Ryan Dempster - TB, at BAL (17-percent K rate since May 1 makes the mid-4.00 ERA less palatable; had 35-percent K rate in April)
43. Dallas Keuchel - OAK, at TOR
44. Tommy Milone - at HOU, LAA (usually a home-only guy, but trip to HOU is one of better road trips available)
45. Jordan Lyles - at TOR
46. Erik Bedard - at TOR (these two Astros have quietly been doing well lately, but a trip to TOR is scary)
47. Dan Straily - LAA
48. Esmil Rogers - LAD (very pleasant surprise as a starter for the Jays)
49. Andy Pettitte - at TEX
50. Chris Tillman - BOS (HR rate, modest skills suggest ERA should easily be north of 4.00; tread cautiously)
51. Martin Perez - at CLE (skills didn't support early ERA, but taking steps forward)
52. Joe Saunders - CLE
53. Chris Archer - at NYY
54. Danny Salazar - at SEA (in AAA, but on schedule to fill Tuesday fifth spot)
55. Jerome Williams - at OAK
56. Jose Quintana - KC

CAUTION:
57. Joe Blanton - MIN, at OAK
58. Jarred Cosart - OAK, at TOR (great in debut, but this is a tough slate)
59. Brandon Workman - TB, at BAL
60. Roberto Hernandez - at BOS, at NYY
61. Phil Hughes - at TEX, TB (could yield 32 home runs this week)
62. Ubaldo Jimenez - at SEA, TEX
63. Jason Hammel - at KC, BOS
64. Mark Buehrle - HOU
65. Mike Pelfrey - at LAA
66. Kevin Correia - at SEA
67. Jeremy Guthrie - at CWS
68. Kyle Gibson - at LAA, at SEA (let's give the rook some time)
69. Todd Redmond - LAD, HOU
70. Wade Davis - BAL, at CWS
71. Bruce Chen - BAL, at CWS
72. Aaron Harang - CLE, MIN
73. Scott Diamond - at SEA
74. LAA fifth starter - MIN, at OAK (it could be you, stay by your phone)
75. Ross Wolf - NYY

MLB TOP 100

1. Max Scherzer - at CWS, at PHI
2. Yu Darvish - NYY, at CLE
3. Jarrod Parker - at HOU, LAA
4. Chris Sale - DET, KC
5. Patrick Corbin - CHC, SD
6. Felix Hernandez - MIN
7. Anibal Sanchez - at CWS
8. Adam Wainwright - at ATL
9. Matt Harvey - at WAS
10. Clayton Kershaw - CIN
11. Stephen Strasburg - PIT
12. Gio Gonzalez - PIT
13. Matt Garza - at ARI, at SF
14. Jose Fernandez - at COL, PIT
15. Julio Teheran - at NYM, STL
16. Travis Wood - at ARI, at SF
17. Shelby Miller - PHI, at ATL
18. Mat Latos -at LAD
19. Francisco Liriano - at WAS
20. A.J. Burnett - at WAS
21. Madison Bumgarner - CHC
22. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM
23. Justin Verlander - at CWS
24. Cliff Lee - at DET
25. Cole Hamels - at DET
26. Mike Leake - at SF
27. David Price - at BOS
28. Hisashi Iwakuma - MIN
29. Matt Moore - at BOS, at NYY
30. Alexi Ogando - NYY, at CLE
31. John Lackey - TB
32. Bartolo Colon - LAA
33. Doug Fister - PHI
34. Jered Weaver - MIN
35. Felix Doubront - TB
36. Derek Holland - NYY
37. Homer Bailey - at LAD
38. Zack Greinke - CIN
39. Lance Lynn - PHI
40. Matt Cain - CHC
41. James Shields - BAL
42. Ervin Santana - BAL
43. Hiroki Kuroda - at TEX
44. Jeremy Hellickson - at BOS
45. Mike Minor - STL
46. Kyle Lohse - SD
47. Jeremy Hefner - ATL
48. Jeff Locke - at MIA
49. Ricky Nolasco - at TOR
50. Paul Maholm - at NYM
51. Tim Hudson - at NYM
52. Bud Norris - OAK
53. Corey Kluber - TEX
54. CC Sabathia - TB
55. Hector Santiago - DET, KC
56. Rick Porcello - at CWS, at PHI
57. Ivan Nova - at TEX, TB
58. Dillon Gee - ATL, at WAS
59. Tim Lincecum - CIN, CHC
60. Chris Capuano - at TOR, CIN
61. Bronson Arroyo - at SF, at LAD
62. Tony Cingrani - at SF, at LAD
63. Andrew Cashner - at MIL, at ARI
64. Dan Haren - PIT, NYM
65. Kris Medlen - at NYM, STL
66. Gerrit Cole - at WAS, at MIA
67. Charlie Morton - at WAS, at MIA
68. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at TOR, CIN
69. Josh Johnson - LAD, HOU
70. Miguel Gonzalez - at KC
71. A.J. Griffin - at HOU
72. Jake Peavy - DET
73. John Danks - DET
74. Justin Masterson - TEX
75. C.J. Wilson - at OAK
76. Wei-Yin Chen - at KC
77. Scott Kazmir - at SEA
78. Jeff Samardzija - at ARI
79. Jon Lester - at BAL
80. Zack Wheeler - ATL
81. Randall Delgado - SD
82. Jorge De La Rosa - MIA
83. Tyler Chatwood - CHC
84. Edwin Jackson - at SF
85. Chad Gaudin - CIN
86. R.A. Dickey - HOU
87. Carlos Villanueva - at ARI
88. Wade Miley - CHC
89. Yovani Gallardo - SD
90. Erasmo Ramirez - CLE, MIN
91. Samuel Deduno - at LAA, at SEA
92. Scott Feldman - at KC, BOS
93. Ryan Dempster - TB, at BAL
94. Dallas Keuchel - OAK, at TOR
95. Tommy Milone - at HOU, LAA
96. Jordan Lyles - at TOR
97. Erik Bedard - at TOR
98. Dan Straily - LAA
99. Esmil Rogers - LAD
100. Andy Pettitte - at TEX

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