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Pitching Value Meter: Leave it to Weaver

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week July 29 - Aug. 4

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - at CHC (Harvey might have it better at MIA, but Kershaw is baseball's best in ERA, WHIP, H/9)
2. Matt Harvey - at MIA (his worst, fourth-worst games of the year - by GameScore - were vs. FLA oddly enough)
3. Adam Wainwright - at PIT
4. Stephen Strasburg - at DET
5. Gio Gonzalez - at DET (these two Nats have their work cut out for them in DET, but few arms throwing it better)
6. Mat Latos - at SD (not his first return trip as he threw seven shutout IP with 8 K in no-decision last July)
7. Jose Fernandez - CLE
8. Julio Teheran - COL
9. Francisco Liriano - STL, COL (STL outing is why he doesn't vault ahead of the one-start guys)
10. Patrick Corbin - at BOS
11. Madison Bumgarner - at TB
12. Jordan Zimmermann - at MIL (rough pair of outings hasn't significantly altered my opinion of JZ)
13. Cole Hamels - SF
14. Homer Bailey - at SD
15. A.J. Burnett - STL (thoughts of last year's 12 ER massacre were diminished by seven shutout IP April 17)
16. Cliff Lee - ATL (scratched from Saturday start with stiff neck; stay tuned for details for week 17)
17. Zack Greinke - NYY (couple mistakes took him off of his hot streak, but still looked sharp in 7-IP/4-ER outing v. CIN)
18. Travis Wood - LAD
19. Shelby Miller - at CIN
20. Mike Minor - COL
21. Kyle Lohse - at CHC, WAS (after 6.51 May ERA, 2.49 ERA in June, July in 68.7 IP)
22. Ricky Nolasco - NYY, at CHC
23. Mike Leake - at SD, STL (avoided disaster at SF yielding 12 H, but just 1 ER in 6 IP)
24. Zack Wheeler - at MIA, KC (settled in with a 2.78 ERA in 22.7 July IP including a 3-0 record)
25. Lance Lynn - at PIT, at CIN
26. Jorge De La Rosa - at ATL, at PIT (one of the few COL SP with better home ERA, but 3.25 road ERA is still strong)
27. Jeff Samardzija - MIL, LAD (looked great in COL before losing control again in ARI with 5 BB in 5.7 IP)
28. Nathan Eovaldi - NYM, CLE
29. Jacob Turner - NYM, CLE (these two Marlins have shown great flashes; pair of home starts is appealing)
30. Matt Cain - at PHI (are you sold by a gem v. CHC? I'm still skeptical)
31. Tyler Chatwood - at ATL (back-to-back home gems has vaulted him onto the full scale mixed-league landscape)
32. Wade Miley - at TB (quietly erasing disastrous 7.34 ERA with a 2.69 ERA since, including a 1.89 in July)
33. Jeff Locke - STL
34. Dillon Gee - at MIA
35. Chris Capuano - at CHC (last 6: three 0-ER outings, three 5-ER outings; this sets up better for 0 ER than 5 ER)
36. Bronson Arroyo - STL (2.52 ERA in his last 9, including 6 IP/2 ER vs. STL on June 9)
37. Tony Cingrani - STL
38. Andrew Cashner - NYY
39. Kris Medlen - at PHI (hasn't allowed fewer than 7 H in his last five: 7, 9, 8, 9, 7)
40. Gerrit Cole - COL (good ol' baseball: 11% K rate in June, 4-0; 19% in July, 1-3.)
41. Eric Stults - CIN (can't be trusted on the road, but leverages Petco for 2.45 ERA)
42. Jhoulys Chacin - at PIT (home: 4.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 1.7 K:BB; road: 1.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.4 K:BB)
43. Carlos Torres - KC (sparkly numbers aren't just built off relief work: 1.64 ERA, 11/2 K:BB in 11 IP over 2 starts)
44. Randall Delgado - at TEX (efficient shutout of SD saw him throw 100 pitches, allow three hits)
45. Edwin Jackson - LAD (deserves better than 4.89 ERA; maybe SF start is the beginning of that)
46. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at CHC
47. Wily Peralta - at CHC
48. Chad Gaudin - at PHI (Gaudin, Peralta had a disastrous week, but get great rebound outings this week)
49. Kyle Kendrick - SF
50. Brandon Beachy - COL, at PHI (don't expect the world from him immediately, it'd be a major upset)
51. Joe Kelly - at PIT (3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 K:BB in 17 IP over 3 starts following similarly solid record as SP last year)
52. Jeremy Hefner - at MIA, KC (horrific back-to-back outings, but this pair of teams sets up nicely for a rebound)
53. Yovani Gallardo - at CHC, WAS
54. Carlos Villanueva - MIL, LAD

CAUTION:

55. Alex Wood - COL, at PHI (still being stretched out as a starter)
56. Jake Westbrook - at PIT, at CIN (still fading him 100 percent: 8.6% K, 8.8% BB rates portend heavy correction)
57. Juan Nicasio - at ATL, at PIT (markedly worse on road: 3.86 ERA, 2.8 K:BB at home; 4.91 ERA, 1.5 K:BB on road)
58. Ian Kennedy - at TB, at BOS
59. Tim Lincecum - at TB (didn't take long for the no-hitter shine to wear off)
60. Taylor Jordan - at MIL
61. Dan Haren - at MIL
62. Charlie Morton - STL
63. Henderson Alvarez - NYM
64. Edinson Volquez - CIN
65. Tyler Skaggs - at BOS
66. Sean O'Sullivan - CIN, NYY
67. Jonathan Pettibone - ATL
68. John Lannan - SF, ATL
69. Jake Arrieta - MIL
70. Tom Koehler - NYM
71. Donovan Hand - WAS
72. Tom Gorzelanny - WAS
73. Drew Pomeranz - at ATL
74. Tyson Ross - NYY
75. Barry Zito - at PHI, at TB
76. Chris Rusin - LAD
77. PIT DH Fill-in - STL (could be Jeanmar Gomez or a call-up)
78. MIL DH Fill-in - at CHC (who knows who it'll be, but you don't want him in your lineup)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Jered Weaver - at TEX, TOR (1.32 ERA over last 6, including vs. DET, STL, BOS, OAK)
2. Matt Garza - LAA, at OAK (despite a season in the NL, he's already faced both of these clubs: 3.15 ERA in 14.3 IP)
3. Felix Doubront - TB, ARI (2.71 ERA in last 13 starts spanning 79.7 IP)
4. Ervin Santana - at MIN, at NYM (rebounded from at-NYY disaster with gems against DET, BAL)
5. Derek Holland - LAA, at OAK
6. Max Scherzer - CWS
7. Yu Darvish - ARI (looked brilliant in his return from the DL, though tired some in the seventh)
8. David Price - ARI (trips to TOR, BOS give his 5-game streak some heft: 1.76 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 27:1 K:BB in 41 IP)
9. Felix Hernandez - at BOS
10. Matt Moore - SF (2-hit shutout in BOS was incredible)
11. Chris Sale - at CLE
12. James Shields - at MIN
13. John Lackey - SEA (tough to fault for a hiccup in BAL)
14. Bartolo Colon - TOR
15. Anibal Sanchez - WAS (getting better with each start since returning from the DL)
16. C.J. Wilson - at TEX, TOR (LAA team struggles have left him underrated)
17. Wei-Yin Chen - HOU, SEA (would love to see more K, but can't argue with the results)
18. Jake Peavy - at CLE, at DET (getting dealt would allow him to avoid tougher of two starts)
19. Jarrod Parker - TEX
20. Jeremy Hellickson - ARI
21. Doug Fister - CWS
22. Hiroki Kuroda - at LAD
23. Justin Verlander - WAS (worst part about CWS outing was that velocity was back up)
24. Hisashi Iwakuma - at BOS (ripped at home by BOS earlier this month: 3 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR)
25. Alexi Ogando - at OAK (not a bad return from DL; only threw 78 pitches and will likely be sub-100 next time)
26. Corey Kluber - CWS
27. CC Sabathia - at SD (opponent alone keeps him this high)
28. Rick Porcello - CWS (DET didn't play CWS before ASB hence Porcello seeing them in 3 of 4 starts)
29. Ivan Nova - at SD (battled Yu pitch-for-pitch with only one mistake to Cruz in the seventh)
30. Chris Tillman - HOU (skills worried me re: ERA regression; but skills have changed in last three: 24% K & 9% BB rates 21 IP v. TOR, TEX, BOS)
31. Miguel Gonzalez - HOU
32. Justin Masterson - CWS (0.72 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 20 K, 3-0 v. CWS in 3 starts over 25 IP)
33. Chris Archer - SF
34. Bud Norris - at BAL, at MIN (could be traded, but he'd make the worst of two starts if so)
35. Scott Kazmir - CWS, at MIA (7-start run of 1.60 ERA has finally brought season ERA below 4.00)
36. Esmil Rogers - at OAK, at LAA
37. Zach McAllister - CWS, at MIA
38. A.J. Griffin - TOR, TEX
39. Brandon Workman - SEA, ARI
40. Roberto Hernandez - at BOS, SF (he's allowed exactly 3 ER in each of last 5, but only topped 6 IP once)
41. Jose Quintana - at CLE (despite only 0.15 ERA difference from 2012, he's shown strong skill improvement)
42. Phil Hughes - at SD (might find a way to give up multiple HRs even in SD, but I like him here)
43. Jon Lester - ARI (back-to-back QS and 3 of 4 might be a sign of life; still hittable with 28 H in 24.7 IP in Jul)
44. Samuel Deduno - HOU (strikeout potential and we might finally see it against HOU)
45. Scott Feldman - SEA
46. Ryan Dempster - ARI
47. Dan Straily - TOR
48. Tommy Milone - TEX (3.20 ERA at home; plus TEX scoring just 3.7 R/G this month after 4.3 in 3 months before July)
49. Jarred Cosart - at MIN (adapting well to bright lights of MLB through 2 starts)
50. Ubaldo Jimenez - at MIA (opponent alone puts him above the caution line)

CAUTION:

51. Erasmo Ramirez - at BAL (looked better v. CLE, but I'm cautious of many RHP at BAL)
52. Hector Santiago - at DET
53. Tommy Hanson - TOR (drew rave reviews in DL return with elevated velocity, sharp results, but it was MIN; need to see more)
54. Mark Buehrle - at OAK, at LAA
55. Joe Saunders - at BOS, at BAL (5.26 road ERA is due for a big bump)
56. John Danks - at CLE, at DET (homers are his undoing, but coming along nicely otherwise; keep an eye on him)
57. Andy Pettitte - at LAD
58. Josh Johnson - at LAA (allowed at least 7 H in 5 of last 6 starts)
59. R.A. Dickey - at OAK
60. Erik Bedard - at BAL
61. Dallas Keuchel - at MIN
62. Jordan Lyles - at BAL
63. Jason Hammel - SEA
64. Kevin Correia - KC
65. Kyle Gibson - HOU
66. Mike Pelfrey - KC, HOU
67. Scott Diamond - KC
68. Martin Perez - LAA
69. Jeremy Guthrie - at MIN
70. Jerome Williams - at TEX
71. Todd Redmond - at LAA
72. Wade Davis - at NYM
73. Bruce Chen - at NYM
74. Aaron Harang - at BAL
75. Garrett Richards - TOR

MLB TOP 100

1. Jered Weaver - at TEX, TOR
2. Matt Garza - LAA, at OAK
3. Felix Doubront - TB, ARI
4. Ervin Santana - at MIN, at NYM
5. Derek Holland - LAA, at OAK
6. Matt Harvey - at MIA
7. Adam Wainwright - at PIT
8. Clayton Kershaw - at CHC
9. Max Scherzer - CWS
10. Yu Darvish - ARI
11. David Price - ARI
12. Felix Hernandez - at BOS
13. Matt Moore - SF
14. Chris Sale - at CLE
15. James Shields - at MIN
16. John Lackey - SEA
17. Bartolo Colon - TOR
18. Anibal Sanchez - WAS
19. Stephen Strasburg - at DET
20. Gio Gonzalez - at DET
21. Mat Latos - at SD
22. Jose Fernandez - CLE
23. Julio Teheran - COL
24. C.J. Wilson - at TEX, TOR
25. Francisco Liriano - STL, COL
26. Patrick Corbin - at BOS
27. Madison Bumgarner - at TB
28. Jordan Zimmermann - at MIL
29. Cliff Lee - ATL
30. Cole Hamels - SF
31. Homer Bailey - at SD
32. Zack Greinke - NYY
33. Wei-Yin Chen - HOU, SEA
34. Jake Peavy - at CLE, at DET
35. Jarrod Parker - TEX
36. Jeremy Hellickson - ARI
37. Doug Fister - CWS
38. Hiroki Kuroda - at LAD
39. Justin Verlander - WAS
40. Hisashi Iwakuma - at BOS
41. Alexi Ogando - at OAK
42. Corey Kluber - CWS
43. Travis Wood - LAD
44. Shelby Miller - at CIN
45. A.J. Burnett - STL
46. Mike Minor - COL
47. Kyle Lohse - at CHC, WAS
48. Ricky Nolasco - NYY, at CHC
49. Mike Leake - at SD, STL
50. Zack Wheeler - at MIA, KC
51. Lance Lynn - at PIT, at CIN
52. Jeff Samardzija - MIL, LAD
53. Jorge De La Rosa - at ATL, at PIT
54. Nathan Eovaldi - NYM, CLE
55. Jacob Turner - NYM, CLE
56. CC Sabathia - at SD
57. Rick Porcello - CWS
58. Ivan Nova - at SD
59. Chris Tillman - HOU
60. Miguel Gonzalez - HOU
61. Justin Masterson - CWS
62. Chris Archer - SF
63. Bud Norris - at BAL, at MIN (could be traded, but he'd make the worst of the two starts if so)
64. Scott Kazmir - CWS, at MIA
65. Esmil Rogers - at OAK, at LAA
66. Zach McAllister - CWS, at MIA
67. A.J. Griffin - TOR, TEX
68. Brandon Workman - SEA, ARI
69. Roberto Hernandez - at BOS, SF
70. Phil Hughes - at SD
71. Jose Quintana - at CLE
72. Jon Lester - ARI
73. Samuel Deduno - HOU
74. Scott Feldman - SEA
75. Matt Cain - at PHI
76. Tyler Chatwood - at ATL
77. Wade Miley - at TB
78. Jeff Locke - STL
79. Dillon Gee - at MIA
80. Chris Capuano - at CHC
81. Ryan Dempster - ARI
82. Dan Straily - TOR
83. Tommy Milone - TEX
84. Bronson Arroyo - STL
85. Tony Cingrani - STL
86. Andrew Cashner - NYY
87. Kris Medlen - at PHI
88. Gerrit Cole - COL
89. Eric Stults - CIN
90. Jhoulys Chacin - at PIT
91. Carlos Torres - KC
92. Randall Delgado - at TEX
93. Edwin Jackson - LAD
94. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at CHC
95. Wily Peralta - at CHC
96. Chad Gaudin - at PHI
97. Kyle Kendrick - SF
98. Brandon Beachy - COL, at PHI
99. Jarred Cosart - at MIN
100. Joe Kelly - at PIT