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Pitching Value Meter: Tough Week Ahead for Kershaw

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week Aug. 5-11

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - at STL, TB (even with two tough matchups, he earns the top spot)
2. Adam Wainwright - LAD, CHC (had what constitutes a rough month for him in July: 3.77 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
3. Stephen Strasburg - ATL, PHI
4. Mike Minor - at WAS, MIA (highest ERA at the end of any month: 3.13 in April)
5. Matt Harvey - COL
6. Jose Fernandez - at PIT (keeps getting better, and if MIA was in any sort of contention, it'd be hard to shut him down)
7. Patrick Corbin - NYM
8. Madison Bumgarner - MIL
9. Cole Hamels - CHC (much better lately with 2.88 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 11 GS since June 1)
10. Mat Latos - OAK (strong since 6 ER at ATL: 2.41 ERA, 15 K in three GS spanning 18.7 IP)
11. Julio Teheran - at WAS (shows more with each passing start why he was a top-5 prospect two years in a row)
12. Matt Cain - MIL, BAL (sharp in last two, but CHC/PHI opponent list doesn't impress; BAL outing scary even in SF)
13. Francisco Liriano - at COL (tough outing, but he's more than proven himself)
14. Jordan Zimmermann - ATL
15. Gio Gonzalez - ATL (the two Nats are lower more due to opponent than recent struggles)
16. Shelby Miller - LAD (closed June rough then dropped a 2.78 ERA in July with 23 K in 22.7 IP)
17. Homer Bailey - OAK
18. A.J. Burnett - at COL
19. Cliff Lee - at WAS (neck concerns keep him this low, if he looks healthy this weekend, bump him up as WAS is terrible vs. LHP)
20. Gerrit Cole - MIA
21. Kyle Lohse - at SEA
22. Mike Leake - SD
23. Zack Greinke - TB
24. Ricky Nolasco - at STL, TB (not an easy slate, but he should have run support the way LAD is running)
25. Tyler Chatwood - at NYM, PIT (first bad outing doesn't take me of the Chatwood train)
26. Chad Gaudin - MIL, BAL
27. Edwin Jackson - at PHI, at STL (don't love trip to STL, but last 6: 2.23 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 4.0 K/BB)
28. Joe Kelly - LAD, CHC (allowed 5 ER in four GS over 23.7 IP, four were against MIA)
29. Wade Miley - TB (last two months: 2.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in 70 IP; cut WHIP to 1.13 in July)
30. Brandon Beachy - MIA (stuff wasn't as bad as numbers in debut, he'll get there)
31. Zack Wheeler - COL
32. Travis Wood - at PHI (not an overreaction to LAD outing, but K-guys with better matchups and 2-start SPs bumped him down)
33. Lance Lynn - CHC
34. Jeff Samardzija - at STL
35. Jeff Locke - MIA, at COL (keeps ball down, but we could see double-digit hits in COL even if he doesn't allow a homer)
36. Dillon Gee - at ARI
37. Eric Stults - BAL
38. Jorge De La Rosa - PIT (better at home somehow and gets a modest PIT offense to stay hot there)
39. Chris Capuano - at STL
40. Tony Cingrani - SD
41. Jhoulys Chacin - at NYM (more traditional COL SP who is much better on road: 1.90 ERA in 42.7 IP)
42. Bronson Arroyo - SD (excellent for two months before STL meltdown, but that's why he's so dangerous)
43. Nathan Eovaldi - at ATL
44. Jacob Turner - at ATL (like both of these young MIA hurlers, but ATL is rolling offensively lately so be careful)
45. Randall Delgado - NYM
46. Charlie Morton - MIA
47. John Lannan - at WAS (his former team is awful against lefties)
48. Wily Peralta - at SF, at SEA (he's been tough to figure out, but gets two nice venues and a terrible SF offense)
49. Kyle Kendrick - CHC, at WAS
50. Kris Medlen - at WAS (he's been a hits-allowing machine lately)
51. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at STL
52. Andrew Cashner - at CIN (terrible on the road)
53. Alex Wood - MIA

CAUTION

54. Jeremy Hefner - at ARI
55. Brandon McCarthy - NYM (first start back after major layoff)
56. Ian Kennedy - at CIN
57. Tim Lincecum - MIL
58. Carlos Torres - at ARI (maybe an overreaction, but I'm gun-shy after that face-caving he was dealt at WAS)
59. Tyson Ross - at CIN
60. Tyler Thornburg - at SF, at SEA
61. Carlos Villanueva - at STL
62. Jake Westbrook - LAD
63. Juan Nicasio - PIT
64. Tom Gorzelanny - at SF
65. Taylor Jordan - PHI
66. Dan Haren - PHI
67. Jonathan Pettibone - at WAS
68. Chris Rusin - at PHI
69. Henderson Alvarez - at PIT, at ATL
70. Edinson Volquez - BAL
71. Tom Koehler - at PIT
72. Donovan Hand - at SF
73. Guillermo Moscoso - BAL
74. Chad Bettis - at NYM
75. Zeke Spruill - TB

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - at LAA, at HOU (it's high time he fan 20 Astros for us)
2. John Lackey - at HOU, at KC
3. Chris Sale - NYY, MIN (his offense will probably find a way to let him post a 2.00 ERA in 14 IP with an 0-0 record here)
4. Anibal Sanchez - at CLE, at NYY
5. Justin Verlander - at CLE, at NYY (I know, I know ... but the stuff and velocity have been there even in recent poor outings)
6. Hisashi Iwakuma - TOR, MIL
7. David Price - at LAD (pitching so well I considered him ahead of 2-start guys)
8. Matt Garza - at HOU
9. Max Scherzer - at CLE (first L before ASB was barely a blip, since: 1.29 ERA, 0.36 WHIP, 12 K in 14 IP)
10. Felix Hernandez - TOR (not far behind Price in terms of amazing numbers in July)
11. Derek Holland - at HOU
12. Hiroki Kuroda - at CWS (is there a more underrated SP in baseball, especially considering the team he plays for?)
13. Jered Weaver - at CLE
14. Felix Doubront - at KC
15. James Shields - MIN (a little off in three GS to close June/start July, but since: 2.53 ERA in five GS)
16. Jose Quintana - NYY, MIN (not only a 2.79 ERA in six GS during July, but also 38 K in 38.7 IP)
17. Jon Lester - at HOU (still inconsistent, but the matchup is too juicy)
18. Justin Masterson - DET, LAA
19. Corey Kluber - DET, LAA (both offensives, but especially DET, can mash so I bumped the two Indians down a bit)
20. Wei-Yin Chen - at SF
21. Doug Fister - at CLE (popped for 6 ER on July 7, but allowed 4 ER in 28 IP since)
22. Ervin Santana - BOS
23. Bartolo Colon - at TOR
24. C.J. Wilson - at CLE (the Indians mash lefties, so he gets a bump down)
25. Jake Peavy - at KC
26. Ryan Dempster - at HOU, at KC (a nice pair of outings to help a wobbly Dempster stabilize)
27. Chris Archer - at ARI
28. CC Sabathia - at CWS (if they embarrass him then we really need to worry)
29. Rick Porcello - at NYY
30. Hector Santiago - NYY (deserves much better than his 3-7 record given how he's pitches)
31. Jarrod Parker - at TOR (erased a lot of his good work in five poor innings vs. LAA; at TOR is tough)
32. Jeremy Hellickson - at ARI
33. Chris Tillman - at SF (juicy matchup for homer-prone Tillman to show his best)
34. Samuel Deduno - at KC (get him on your radar if for some reason he's not)
35. Scott Feldman - at SF
36. Bud Norris - at SD
37. Miguel Gonzalez - at SD (several BAL SPs get a nice outing this week)
38. Alexi Ogando - at LAA (he's been a little uneven since returning from the DL)
39. Ivan Nova - DET
40. Erasmo Ramirez - MIL
41. Garrett Richards - TEX (this 25-year-old has stuff and was once a top prospect)
42. Mark Buehrle - OAK
43. Andy Pettitte - at CWS, DET (worried that the DET outing will just cancel the CWS one)
44. Scott Kazmir - LAA
45. John Danks - MIN (HRs only downside, but it's a big downside; MIN only has 21 HR vs. LHP - 26th in MLB)

CAUTION

46. Dan Straily - at CIN, at TOR (tough pair of venues, so if you don't need the 2 starts, maybe sit out)
47. Esmil Rogers - OAK
48. Zach McAllister - DET
49. A.J. Griffin - at TOR (Like Rogers, McAllister, Griffin, but these are brutal matchups)
50. Roberto Hernandez - at LAD
51. Phil Hughes - DET
52. Tommy Milone - at TOR (Hughes, Milone get the worst possible setups for their skills)
53. Kevin Correia - at KC, at CWS
54. Martin Perez - at LAA, at HOU
55. Ubaldo Jimenez - DET
56. Joe Saunders - MIL
57. Tommy Hanson - TEX
58. Jordan Lyles - BOS, TEX
59. Jarred Cosart - BOS
60. R.A. Dickey - at SEA, OAK
61. Erik Bedard - TEX
62. Dallas Keuchel - TEX
63. Andre Rienzo - MIN
64. Kyle Gibson - at CWS
65. Mike Pelfrey - at CWS
66. Jeremy Guthrie - MIN, BOS
67. Jerome Williams - TEX, CLE
68. Matt Moore fill-in/Jake Odorizzi - at LAD
69. Brett Oberholtzer - BOS, TEX
70. Todd Redmond - at SEA
71. Wade Davis - MIN
72. Bruce Chen - BOS
73. Aaron Harang - TOR
74. Josh Johnson - at SEA, OAK
75. MIN Call-Up - at KC, at CWS

MLB TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - at STL, TB
2. Yu Darvish - at LAA, at HOU
3. Adam Wainwright - LAD, CHC
4. Stephen Strasburg - ATL, PHI
5. Mike Minor - at WAS, MIA
6. John Lackey - at HOU, at KC
7. Chris Sale - NYY, MIN
8. Anibal Sanchez - at CLE, at NYY
9. Justin Verlander - at CLE, at NYY
10. Hisashi Iwakuma - TOR, MIL
11. David Price - at LAD
12. Matt Garza - at HOU
13. Matt Harvey - COL
14. Jose Fernandez - at PIT
15. Max Scherzer - at CLE
16. Felix Hernandez - TOR
17. Patrick Corbin - NYM
18. Derek Holland - at HOU
19. Hiroki Kuroda - at CWS
20. Madison Bumgarner - MIL
21. Cole Hamels - CHC
22. Mat Latos - OAK
23. Julio Teheran - at WAS
24. Matt Cain - MIL, BAL
25. Jered Weaver - at CLE
26. Felix Doubront - at KC
27. James Shields - MIN
28. Jose Quintana - NYY, MIN
29. Jon Lester - at HOU
30. Justin Masterson - DET, LAA
31. Corey Kluber - DET, LAA
32. Francisco Liriano - at COL
33. Jordan Zimmermann - ATL
34. Shelby Miller - LAD
35. Gio Gonzalez - ATL
36. Wei-Yin Chen - at SF
37. Doug Fister - at CLE
38. Ervin Santana - BOS
39. Homer Bailey - OAK
40. A.J. Burnett - at COL
41. Cliff Lee - at WAS
42. Gerrit Cole - MIA
43. Kyle Lohse - at SEA
44. Mike Leake - SD
45. Zack Greinke - TB
46. Bartolo Colon - at TOR
47. C.J. Wilson - at CLE
48. Jake Peavy - at KC
49. Jose Quintana - NYY, MIN
50. Ryan Dempster - at HOU, at KC
51. Ricky Nolasco - at STL, TB
52. Tyler Chatwood - at NYM, PIT
53. Chad Gaudin - MIL, BAL
54. Edwin Jackson - at PHI, at STL
55. Joe Kelly - LAD, CHC
56. Chris Archer - at ARI
57. CC Sabathia - at CWS
58. Wade Miley - TB
59. Brandon Beachy - MIA
60. Rick Porcello - at NYY
61. Hector Santiago - NYY
62. Zack Wheeler - COL
63. Travis Wood - at PHI
64. Jarrod Parker - at TOR
65. Jeremy Hellickson - at ARI
66. Chris Tillman - at SF
67. Samuel Deduno - at KC
68. Lance Lynn - CHC
69. Jeff Samardzija - at STL
70. Scott Feldman - at SF
71. Bud Norris - at SD
72. Miguel Gonzalez - at SD
73. Jeff Locke - MIA, at COL
74. Dillon Gee - at ARI
75. Alexi Ogando - at LAA
76. Ivan Nova - DET
77. Eric Stults - BAL
78. Jorge De La Rosa - PIT
79. Chris Capuano - at STL
80. Tony Cingrani - SD
81. Jhoulys Chacin - at NYM
82. Bronson Arroyo - SD
83. Nathan Eovaldi - at ATL
84. Jacob Turner - at ATL
85. Erasmo Ramirez - MIL
86. Garrett Richards - TEX
87. Mark Buehrle - OAK
88. Randall Delgado - NYM
89. Charlie Morton - MIA
90. John Lannan - at WAS
91. Wily Peralta - at SF, at SEA
92. Kyle Kendrick - CHC, at WAS
93. Kris Medlen - at WAS
94. Andy Pettitte - at CWS, DET
95. Scott Kazmir - LAA
96. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at STL
97. John Danks - MIN
98. Andrew Cashner - at CIN
99. Alex Wood - MIA
100. Jeremy Hefner - at ARI
101. Dan Straily - at CIN, at TOR