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Pitching Value Meter: Giants Look to Cruise Madison Ave

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week of Aug. 12-18

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Matt Harvey - at LAD, at SD (too bad we don't get Kershaw v. Harvey!)
2. Madison Bumgarner - at WAS, at MIA (MadBum gets the two worst teams in OPS vs. lefties)
3. Adam Wainwright - PIT, at CHC
4. Mat Latos - at CHC, at MIL (quietly having a fourth straight great season)
5. Gio Gonzalez - SF, at ATL
6. Julio Teheran - PHI, WAS (matched his 2012 IP total last time out)
7. Clayton Kershaw - at PHI (only a host of studs going twice could push him this far down)
8. Cole Hamels - at ATL, LAD
9. Jose Fernandez - at KC (he's getting better with each start, imagine if MIA was contending)
10. Homer Bailey - at CHC, at MIL
11. Mike Minor - WAS (Minor gets a second straight outing against WAS after a 6 IP/2 ER on Aug. 5)
12. Patrick Corbin - BAL (O's have strong offense, but their damage comes vs. righties ranking 20th in OPS vs. LHP)
13. Stephen Strasburg - at ATL
14. A.J. Burnett - ARI
15. Cliff Lee - LAD
16. Wade Miley - BAL, at PIT (just got done with 13.3 IP of one-run ball vs. TB, MLB's 2nd-best team vs. LHP)
17. Matt Cain - at MIA
18. Chad Gaudin - at MIA (returned from 3.7-IP/6-ER outing with a combined 13.3 IP/2 ER over his last two)
19. Jordan Zimmermann - SF (something of a litmus test for the struggling Zimm as he aims to remedy his 6.75 ERA over his last four)
20. Ricky Nolasco - NYM, at PHI (this is a volume play with a pair of weak offenses)
21. Zack Greinke - at PHI
22. Kyle Lohse - CIN
23. Francisco Liriano - at STL
24. Mike Leake - at MIL (getting smashed by STL is hardly a crime; 7 ER still only bumped him to 2.94)
25. Zack Wheeler - at SD
26. Jacob Turner - at KC (yielded more than 3 ER just once in 12 starts)
27. Lance Lynn - PIT
28. Shelby Miller - PIT (took a shot off elbow one batter into his last start; hasn't topped 6 IP since June 1)
29. Travis Wood - CIN, STL
30. Jhoulys Chacin - SD, at BAL
31. Jorge De La Rosa - SD (continues to excel at home with a 2.58 ERA in Coors)
32. Dillon Gee - at LAD (2.39 ERA, 1.06 WHIP; averaging 7 IP over his last seven starts)
33. Chris Capuano - NYM
34. Bronson Arroyo - at CHC (STL destruction is why I rarely trust Arroyo, but as I said earlier I don't kill guys for thrashings from the Cards)
35. Tony Cingrani - at MIL
36. Dan Haren - SF (2.43 ERA in last six despite 5-IP/5-ER outing; funny what health can do, huh?)
37. Jenrry Mejia - at LAD (he's been brilliant in his first three starts, but still playing it cautiously against Dodgers)
38. Brandon Beachy - PHI (looking better each time out, though last start was against Marlins)
39. Alex Wood - WAS
40. Gerrit Cole - at STL
41. Kris Medlen - PHI (allowed 81 hits in 11 starts before holding the Nats to just three; still not optimistic)
42. Hyun-Jin Ryu - NYM (regaining his April form lately over his last three: 1.40 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 22 K in 19.3 IP)
43. Nathan Eovaldi - SF
44. Joe Kelly - at CHC
45. Ian Kennedy - NYM (an easy play at home)
46. Tom Koehler - at KC, SF (3.52 ERA, 26 Ks in 23 IP since All-Star break)
47. Wily Peralta - CIN
48. Jeremy Hefner - at SD
49. Jonathon Niese - at SD (picking on Padres with struggling Hefner and fresh-from-injury Niese)
50. Randall Delgado - BAL
51. Tyson Ross - NYM
52. Ryan Vogelsong - at WAS (sharp return against tough O's bodes well for future)

CAUTION

53. Henderson Alvarez - SF (if you're still in a 4x4 or just don't need Ks, this is a good spot for him)
54. Chris Rusin - CIN (six scoreless at STL pushes his ERA down to 3.08, still not enarmored)
55. Edwin Jackson - STL (I'm close to breaking up with EJax, and we're definitely not seeing each other while he faces the Cards)
56. Jeff Samardzija - CIN (had a lull last June, but rebounded; this year he's had multiple lulls)
57. Kyle Kendrick - LAD
58. Jeff Locke - ARI (due regression is coming slowly but surely; he's not bad, but he's not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, either)
59. Tim Lincecum - at WAS
60. Brandon McCarthy - at PIT
61. Andrew Cashner - at COL (can't really be trusted on the road, especially Colorado)
62. Marco Estrada - at TEX, CIN
63. Charlie Morton - at STL, ARI
64. Eric Stults - at COL, NYM
65. Edinson Volquez - at COL, NYM
66. Jake Westbrook - at CHC
67. John Lannan - at ATL
68. Carlos Villanueva - STL
69. Chad Bettis - at BAL
70. Juan Nicasio - at BAL
71. Taylor Jordan - at ATL
72. Zeke Spruill - at PIT
73. Ethan Martin - at ATL
74. Donovan Hand - at TEX
75. Tom Gorzelanny - CIN
76. Jeff Manship - SF

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - at HOU, SEA (46 Ks in five starts over 34.7 IP against these two teams this year)
2. Max Scherzer - at CWS, KC
3. Chris Sale - DET, at MIN
4. David Price - SEA (M's are on fire, but Price is 10 levels above whatever is hotter than fire)
5. Jered Weaver - at NYY
6. Ervin Santana - MIA (this is the perfect remedy after getting blasted by Red Sox)
7. Felix Hernandez - at TEX
8. Doug Fister - at CWS, KC (1.59 ERA in five starts since back-to-back 6 ER outings)
9. Hiroki Kuroda - LAA, at BOS
10. Justin Verlander - KC (vintage JV his last time out, let's hope it lasts!)
11. Anibal Sanchez - KC
12. Matt Garza - MIL
13. Felix Doubront - NYY
14. John Lackey - NYY (starting to see some depth in AL when two studs against the weak NYY offense rank outside the top 10)
15. C.J. Wilson - at NYY (all three facing NYY likely will log more Ks in one appearance than Colon in two ...)
16. Bartolo Colon - HOU, CLE (... but he should still log several strong innings, possibly a pair of wins)
17. Hisashi Iwakuma - at TEX
18. Jarrod Parker - HOU (6-IP/3-ER outing in TOR is a gem given that stadium; another good start will get him back below 4.00)
19. Derek Holland - SEA
20. Ivan Nova - LAA (how does the most popular team in the world have two highly underrated arms (Kuroda is the other)?
21. James Shields - at DET (I'm perplexed, he seems to wash away a bunch of good work with a colossal dud every 6-7 starts)
22. Rick Porcello - at CWS (1.74 ERA in 20.7 IP v. CWS over last five starts)
23. Justin Masterson - at OAK
24. Wei-Yin Chen - COL
25. Chris Archer - SEA, TOR (left with forearm tightness Wednesday; stay tuned to RotoWire for the latest)
26. Garrett Richards - at NYY, HOU (has a 2.50 ERA in three starts since rejoining rotation July 27)
27. Hector Santiago - DET, at MIN (3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 46 Ks over his last seven starts has yielded meager 0-2 record)
28. Danny Salazar - at MIN, at OAK
29. CC Sabathia - LAA, at BOS
30. Jeremy Hellickson - TOR
31. Alexi Ogando - MIL (hasn't completed six in his last five, hasn't gone past six in any of his last nine)
32. Jake Peavy - at TOR (5.04 ERA in four starts since returning from the DL, though he's gone six-plus in all but one)
33. Jose Quintana - at MIN
34. Scott Kazmir - at MIN
35. Zach McAllister - at MIN (Twins are below league average against both lefties, righties)
36. Jon Lester - at TOR (two duds in his last seven, but still a 3.77 ERA and 41 Ks over 43 IP)
37. Chris Tillman - at ARI
38. Miguel Gonzalez - at ARI
39. Alex Cobb - TOR (slated to return from that terrifying head injury)
40. Bud Norris - COL (soft landing as an Oriole continues as the Rockies are just a different team on the road)
41. A.J. Griffin - CLE
42. Phil Hughes - LAA
43. Samuel Deduno - CLE (soft skills remain a concern, but there's real stuff here)
44. Bruce Chen - MIA, at DET (1.14 ERA, 0.63 WHIP in five starts since rejoining the rotation July 12)
45. Brett Oberholtzer - TEX, at LAA (two great starts vs. BAL, BOS earned some confidence)
46. Scott Feldman - at ARI, COL (three great, three awful starts as an Oriole)
47. Ryan Dempster - at TOR, NYY
48. Dan Straily - at TOR, CLE (hasn't finished five innings in his last three)
49. Sonny Gray - HOU (keep an eye on his first MLB start Saturday)
50. Andre Rienzo - at MIN

CAUTION:

51. Erasmo Ramirez - at TB, at TEX
52. Tommy Hanson - at NYY, HOU (love the matchups, don't trust the pitcher)
53. R.A. Dickey - at TB
54. Erik Bedard - at OAK
55. Mark Buehrle - BOS
56. Jarred Cosart - at OAK (skills just aren't there yet)
57. John Danks - DET (his homer-fest continued even in a good start as he went 7 IP/3 ER at DET a week ago with 3 HR allowed)
58. Jerome Williams - HOU
59. Andy Pettitte - at BOS
60. Ubaldo Jimenez - at OAK
61. Roberto Hernandez - SEA
62. Joe Saunders - at TB
63. Josh Johnson - OAK, at TB
64. Jordan Lyles - at OAK, at LAA
65. Martin Perez - SEA
66. Jeremy Guthrie - at DET
67. Esmil Rogers - BOS
68. Brad Peacock - at LAA
69. Kevin Correia - CWS
70. Kyle Gibson - CLE
71. Mike Pelfrey - CWS
72. Andrew Albers - CLE, CWS
73. J.A. Happ - BOS, at TB
74. Wade Davis - MIA, at DET
75. Aaron Harang - at TB
76. DET DH fill-in (Drew Smyly??) - KC

MLB TOP 100

1. Matt Harvey - at LAD, at SD
2. Madison Bumgarner - at WAS, at MIA
3. Adam Wainwright - PIT, at CHC
4. Yu Darvish - at HOU, SEA
5. Max Scherzer - at CWS, KC
6. Chris Sale - DET, at MIN
7. Mat Latos - at CHC, at MIL
8. Gio Gonzalez - SF, at ATL
9. Julio Teheran - PHI, WAS
10. Clayton Kershaw - at PHI
11. Cole Hamels - at ATL, LAD
12. Jose Fernandez - at KC
13. David Price - SEA
14. Jered Weaver - at NYY
15. Ervin Santana - MIA
16. Homer Bailey - at CHC, at MIL
17. Mike Minor - WAS
18. Patrick Corbin - BAL
19. Felix Hernandez - at TEX
20. Stephen Strasburg - at ATL
21. Doug Fister - at CWS, KC
22. Hiroki Kuroda - LAA, at BOS
23. A.J. Burnett - ARI
24. Cliff Lee - LAD
25. Justin Verlander - KC
26. Anibal Sanchez - KC
27. Matt Garza - MIL
28. Felix Doubront - NYY
29. John Lackey - NYY
30. C.J. Wilson - at NYY
31. Wade Miley - BAL, at PIT
32. Matt Cain - at MIA
33. Chad Gaudin - at MIA
34. Bartolo Colon - HOU, CLE
35. Jordan Zimmermann - SF
36. Ricky Nolasco - NYM, at PHI
37. Hisashi Iwakuma - at TEX
38. Jarrod Parker - HOU
39. Zack Greinke - at PHI
40. Kyle Lohse - CIN
41. Derek Holland - SEA
42. Francisco Liriano - at STL
43. Mike Leake - at MIL
44. Zack Wheeler - at SD
45. Jacob Turner - at KC
46. Ivan Nova - LAA
47. James Shields - at DET
48. Rick Porcello - at CWS
49. Justin Masterson - at OAK
50. Shelby Miller - PIT
51. Lance Lynn - PIT
52. Wei-Yin Chen - COL
53. Chris Archer - SEA, TOR
54. Garrett Richards - at NYY, HOU
55. Hector Santiago - DET, at MIN
56. Danny Salazar - at MIN, at OAK
57. CC Sabathia - LAA, at BOS
58. Travis Wood - CIN, STL
59. Jhoulys Chacin - SD, at BAL
60. Jorge De La Rosa - SD
61. Dillon Gee - at LAD
62. Chris Capuano - NYM
63. Bronson Arroyo - at CHC
64. Tony Cingrani - at MIL
65. Dan Haren - SF
66. Jeremy Hellickson - TOR
67. Alexi Ogando - MIL
68. Jake Peavy - at TOR
69. Jose Quintana - at MIN
70. Scott Kazmir - at MIN
71. Zach McAllister - at MIN
72. Jon Lester - at TOR
73. Jenrry Mejia - at LAD
74. Brandon Beachy - PHI
75. Alex Wood - WAS
76. Chris Tillman - at ARI
77. Miguel Gonzalez - at ARI
78. Gerrit Cole - at STL
79. Alex Cobb - TOR
80. Kris Medlen - PHI
81. Hyun-Jin Ryu - NYM
82. Nathan Eovaldi - SF
83. Joe Kelly - at CHC
84. Ian Kennedy - NYM
85. Tom Koehler - at KC, SF
86. Bud Norris - COL
87. A.J. Griffin - CLE
88. Phil Hughes - LAA
89. Samuel Deduno - CLE
90. Bruce Chen - MIA, at DET
91. Brett Oberholtzer - TEX, at LAA
92. Scott Feldman - at ARI, COL
93. Ryan Dempster - at TOR, NYY
94. Dan Straily - at TOR, CLE
95. Sonny Gray - HOU
96. Wily Peralta - CIN
97. Jeremy Hefner - at SD
98. Jonathon Niese - at SD
99. Randall Delgado - BAL
100. Tyson Ross - NYM