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Pitching Value Meter: Speeding into September

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

With expanded rosters kicking in Sept. 1, probables are subject to change more than ever. Stay tuned to our fantasy news wire and projected starters for updates.

For the week Sept. 2-8

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Stephen Strasburg - at PHI, at MIA (last start - vs. MIA - cut by rain)
2. Clayton Kershaw - at COL, at CIN
3. Cole Hamels - WAS, ATL (quietly had a 6-start, 2.00-ERA Aug.)
4. Madison Bumgarner - at SD, ARI
5. Adam Wainwright - at CIN, PIT (destruction vs. CIN is a little unnerving, but still trusting previous 27 starts of excellence)
6. Patrick Corbin - at SF (deserves more attention for amazing season)
7. Mike Minor - at PHI
8. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
9. Alex Wood - at PHI (these three lefties will give PHI nightmares this week; PHI is 29th in wOBA vs. LHP)
10. Jose Fernandez - WAS (MIA expected to shuffle to ensure he starts at home vs. WAS)
11. Julio Teheran - NYM
12. Francisco Liriano - at MIL
13. Zack Greinke - at CIN (posted 1.23 ERA in 36.7 IP over five Aug. starts)
14. Wade Miley - TOR, at SF (big Aug. gives him a 2.66 ERA in 105 IP over last three months)
15. Mat Latos - STL, LAD
16. Homer Bailey - STL, LAD (I trust both Reds, but this tough slate makes some one-start guys more intriguing)
17. Shelby Miller - at CIN
18. Cliff Lee - ATL
19. Jordan Zimmermann - at PHI (appears to have righted the ship with back-to-back solid 7.2 IP outings)
20. Travis Wood - MIA, MIL
21. Charlie Morton - at MIL, at STL (Morton's surge lessens damage of Jeff Locke implosion: 2.68 ERA in 6 Aug. starts)
22. Kyle Lohse - at CHC
23. Tyler Chatwood - at SD (returns from DL Sunday)
24. Joe Kelly - PIT (2.24 ERA in 52.3 IP since joining rotation in early July.)
25. A.J. Burnett - at STL
26. Dan Haren - at MIA (big part of WAS surge with 2.12 in 34 Aug. IP)
27. Matt Cain - ARI (slated to return from the DL and cut into Zito's two-start week)
28. Zack Wheeler - at CLE
29. Dillon Gee - at ATL
30. Gerrit Cole - at MIL
31. Jon Niese - at CLE (1.93 ERA in 4 Aug. starts off DL)
32. Kris Medlen - NYM (threw some of his best baseball in Aug. with 3.00 ERA in 36 IP)
33. Ian Kennedy - SF, COL (pure home/road play at this point, so two in Petco makes him a start)
34. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at COL (playing it safe with trip to Coors, but he was brilliant in Aug.)
35. Jeff Samardzija - MIA (maddeningly inconsistent lately, but he can handle MIA)
36. Tyson Ross - COL
37. Eric Stults - SF
38. Robbie Erlin - SF
39. Andrew Cashner - COL (all four of these Padres dominate at home)
40. Tim Lincecum - at SD
41. Edwin Jackson - MIA
42. Yovani Gallardo - PIT (allowed 2 ER in 19.3 IP since returning, including 7 shutout IP in PIT)
43. Marco Estrada - at CHC (also excellent since returning from DL: 1.88 ERA in 24 IP)
44. Wily Peralta - PIT (could MIL play spoiler in Sept. with emerging rotation?)
45. Jorge de la Rosa - LAD (better at Coors than on road, but LAD is tough)
46. Jacob Turner - at CHC
47. Trevor Cahill - at SF
48. Ryan Vogelsong - ARI (deserved better than a 1-0 record in 4 Aug. starts that yielded a 2.55 ERA)
49. Nathan Eovaldi - WAS (bounced back from 9-ER shellacking vs. SF with 2-ER outings vs. LAD, WAS)
50. Lance Lynn - at CIN
51. Chris Capuano - at CIN
52. Roy Halladay - WAS (focus on the results, not the name when judging him for Sept.)
53. Ross Ohlendorf - at MIA
54. Ricky Nolasco - at COL (don't love the opponent, but can't deny recent greatness with 1.64 Aug. ERA)
55. Kyle Kendrick - ATL
56. Mike Leake - LAD
57. Jhoulys Chacin - LAD
58. Randall Delgado - TOR (8 HR in Aug. tempers expectations for this start)

CAUTION

59. Tyler Thornburg - PIT, at CHC
60. Bronson Arroyo - STL (no matter how well he throws, it's impossible to fully trust him)
61. Chris Rusin - MIL
62. Jake Arrieta - MIL
63. Brandon McCarthy - TOR, at SF
64. Paul Maholm - NYM, at PHI
65. Chad Bettis - LAD, at SD
66. Tyler Lyons - at CIN, PIT
67. Henderson Alvarez - at CHC, WAS
68. Carlos Torres - at ATL
69. Juan Nicasio - at SD
70. Greg Reynolds - STL
71. Ethan Martin - WAS
72. Kris Johnson - at STL
73. Yusmeiro Petit - ARI
74. Barry Zito - at SD
75. Tom Koehler - at CHC
76. Daisuke Matsuzaka - at CLE, at ATL

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Chris Sale - at NYY, at BAL (8 ER v. TEX marred Aug. ERA, but 44 K, 5.5 K:BB ratio show his brilliance)
2. Felix Hernandez - at KC, TB (5 ER in 3 of his last 6, including twice against TEX)
3. Derek Holland - at OAK, at LAA (not drawing much attention for his best season ever)
4. Yu Darvish - at OAK
5. Max Scherzer - at BOS
6. Anibal Sanchez - at KC (between Max's rise and JV's fall, Sanchez goes somewhat unnoticed with AL-leading 2.61 ERA)
7. David Price - at LAA
8. Chris Archer - at LAA, at SEA (you might find yourself in the Danger Zone when facing TB's latest young stud)
9. Chris Tillman - at CLE, CWS (justifying his All-Star bid after the fact: 2.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 55.3 IP since break)
10. John Lackey - DET, at NYY
11. Jon Lester - DET, at NYY (tough slate for both Sox, but both were excellent in Aug.)
12. Justin Masterson - BAL, NYM
13. Hiroki Kuroda - CWS, BOS (8.10 ERA over last 3 still only pushes ERA to 2.89 showing how great he's been this year)
14. Hisashi Iwakuma - TB
15. Jarrod Parker - TEX (best month of his season gives him a 2.81 ERA in 141 IP since May 1)
16. Jered Weaver - TB
17. Ervin Santana - SEA
18. Alex Cobb - at LAA (getting better each time out since returning from DL: 2.16 ERA in 16.7 IP)
19. James Shields - DET
20. Justin Verlander - at KC (who knows?!)
21. Ivan Nova - BOS (if you haven't watched him, I encourage you to do so as he has truly electric stuff)
22. Jake Peavy - at NYY
23. Felix Doubront - at NYY
24. C.J. Wilson - TEX
25. Sonny Gray - HOU (let's see how he rebounds from first taste of adversity Saturday vs. TB)
26. Martin Perez - at OAK
27. Matt Moore - at LAA, at SEA (slated to return this week, but this is a conservative ranking given the time off)
28. Jason Vargas - TB, TEX (appears to be fully back after four starts from the DL)
29. Danny Duffy - SEA, DET
30. Doug Fister - at BOS, at KC (always seems to break up a hot run of success with an absolute dud)
31. Garrett Richards - TB, TEX
32. Erasmo Ramirez - at KC, TB (finding his footing after horrific start: 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in last three)
33. Jose Quintana - at NYY, at BAL
34. Matt Garza - at LAA (homers killing as a Ranger: 1.5 HR/9 rate, including 2 HR allowed in 3 of last 4)
35. CC Sabathia - CWS (facing one of the only teams he's looked sharp against lately)
36. A.J. Griffin - HOU
37. Wei-Yin Chen - CWS
38. Taijuan Walker - at KC (looked sharp in MLB debut; can't wait to see more)
39. John Danks - at BAL
40. Scott Kazmir - NYM (either great or lame lately: 0, 4, 0, 5, 5, 1 ER in last 6)
41. Hector Santiago - at NYY
42. Dan Straily - TEX, HOU (hasn't shown any discernible difference at home so double home starts doesn't bump him up)
43. Bud Norris - at CLE, CWS
44. Jarred Cosart - MIN (continues to defy odds with brilliant results despite a hideous 1:1 K/BB ratio)
45. Andy Pettitte - BOS
46. Mark Buehrle - at ARI (2.70 Aug. ERA gives him 3.00 ERA in last 21 starts spanning 138 IP)
47. Andrew Albers - at HOU, TOR (allowed as many runs as he has strikeouts - 13 - but also has a 2.92 ERA)
48. Danny Salazar - NYM (Indians have been very careful with Salazar limiting his ceiling)
49. Bartolo Colon - TEX, HOU (is the clock about to strike midnight?)
50. R.A. Dickey - at MIN
51. Zach McAllister - BAL (when it's bad, it's really bad and BAL isn't much easier than DET)
52. Rick Porcello - at BOS
53. Brett Oberholtzer - at OAK

CAUTION

54. Travis Blackley - at LAA
55. Andre Rienzo - at BAL
56. Phil Hughes - CWS, BOS (somehow made it two starts v. TOR without allowing a HR; can't see it continuing here)
57. Miguel Gonzalez - at CLE
58. Scott Feldman - CWS
59. Jeremy Guthrie - SEA
60. Ubaldo Jimenez - BAL
61. Ryan Dempster - DET
62. Jerome Williams - TB
63. Brad Peacock - at OAK (horrid vs. lefties and OAK can stack six or seven in a lineup)
64. Bruce Chen - SEA, DET
65. Todd Redmond - at ARI, at MIN
66. Paul Clemens - MIN, at OAK
67. Joe Saunders - at KC
68. Roberto Hernandez - at SEA
69. Esmil Rogers - at ARI
70. J.A. Happ - at MIN
71. Jordan Lyles - MIN
72. Kevin Correia - TOR
73. Dallas Keuchel - at OAK
74. Liam Hendriks - at HOU
75. Mike Pelfrey - TOR
76. Pedro Hernandez - at HOU

MLB TOP 100

1. Stephen Strasburg - at PHI, at MIA
2. Clayton Kershaw - at COL, at CIN
3. Cole Hamels - WAS, ATL
4. Adam Wainwright - at CIN, PIT
5. Chris Sale - at NYY, at BAL
6. Felix Hernandez - at KC, TB
7. Derek Holland - at OAK, at LAA
8. Yu Darvish - at OAK
9. Max Scherzer - at BOS
10. Anibal Sanchez - at KC
11. David Price - at LAA
12. Chris Archer - at LAA, at SEA
13. Chris Tillman - at CLE, CWS
14. Madison Bumgarner - at SD, ARI
15. Patrick Corbin - at SF
16. Mike Minor - at PHI
17. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
18. Alex Wood - at PHI
19. John Lackey - DET, at NYY
20. Jon Lester - DET, at NYY
21. Hiroki Kuroda - CWS, BOS
22. Jose Fernandez - WAS
23. Julio Teheran - NYM
24. Jarrod Parker - TEX
25. Hisashi Iwakuma - TB
26. Francisco Liriano - at MIL
27. Zack Greinke - at CIN
28. Wade Miley - TOR, at SF
29. Jered Weaver - TB
30. Ervin Santana - SEA
31. Alex Cobb - at LAA
32. James Shields - DET
33. Mat Latos - STL, LAD
34. Homer Bailey - STL, LAD
35. Shelby Miller - at CIN
36. Cliff Lee - ATL
37. Justin Verlander - at KC
38. Ivan Nova - BOS
39. Jake Peavy - at NYY
40. Felix Doubront - at NYY
41. Jordan Zimmermann - at PHI
42. C.J. Wilson - TEX
43. Sonny Gray - HOU
44. Martin Perez - at OAK
45. Matt Moore - at LAA, at SEA
46. Travis Wood - MIA, MIL
47. Jason Vargas - TB, TEX
48. Danny Duffy - SEA, DET
49. Doug Fister - at BOS, at KC
50. Garrett Richards - TB, TEX
51. Charlie Morton - at MIL, at STL
52. Erasmo Ramirez - at KC, TB
53. Jose Quintana - at NYY, at BAL
54. Kyle Lohse - at CHC
55. Tyler Chatwood - at SD
56. Joe Kelly - PIT
57. A.J. Burnett - at STL
58. Dan Haren - at MIA
59. Matt Cain - ARI
60. Matt Garza - at LAA
61. CC Sabathia - CWS
62. A.J. Griffin - HOU
63. Zack Wheeler - at CLE
64. Dillon Gee - at ATL
65. Gerrit Cole - at MIL
66. Jon Niese - at CLE
67. Kris Medlen - NYM
68. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at COL
69. Ian Kennedy - SF, COL
70. Jeff Samardzija - MIA
71. Tyson Ross - COL
72. Eric Stults - SF
73. Robbie Erlin - SF
74. Andrew Cashner - COL
75. Wei-Yin Chen - CWS
76. Taijuan Walker - at KC
77. John Danks - at BAL
78. Scott Kazmir - NYM
79. Tim Lincecum - at SD
80. Edwin Jackson - MIA
81. Yovani Gallardo - PIT
82. Marco Estrada - at CHC
83. Wily Peralta - PIT
84. Hector Santiago - at NYY
85. Dan Straily - TEX, HOU
86. Bud Norris - at CLE, CWS
87. Jorge de la Rosa - LAD
88. Jacob Turner - at CHC
89. Trevor Cahill - at SF
90. Ryan Vogelsong - ARI
91. Nathan Eovaldi - WAS
92. Jarred Cosart - MIN
93. Lance Lynn - at CIN
94. Andy Pettitte - BOS
95. Mark Buehrle - at ARI
96. Chris Capuano - at CIN
97. Roy Halladay - WAS
98. Ross Ohlendorf - at MIA
99. Ricky Nolasco - at COL
100. Andrew Albers - at HOU, TOR