East Coast Offense: 2013 Predictions and Vegas Player Props

One change: I won't be doing a full survivor section or a best bet ATS this year. The problem was the column went up Tuesday night, and it was too early in the week to publish anything to which I'd want to commit. And while I always wrote "I reserve the right to change my mind," it was torture deciding whether to go against my first instinct and already-published advice. In practice, I was making survivor and ATS choices on Tuesday, an unnecessary handicap. With the Thursday game, it's unavoidable to make picks too early (Wednesday night), but at least we've seen the initial injury report. I will talk plenty of survivor here still and of course handicapping. But I'm not going to make picks until Beating the Book, Survivor and Staff Picks come out.

For those of you in pools with early deadlines, you should consider joining ones that allow you to adjust until five minutes before kickoff. Given the variety of good Survivor and Office Pool Commissioner options (Yahoo!, ESPN, Officefootballpools.com, Sportsline), there's no reason to be locked in mid-week.

Non-obvious Predictions for 2013

•Rob Gronkowski returns in mid-to-late September and scores 12 TDs, making him more valuable than Jimmy Graham, when you factor in the 3-4 games of the replacement tight end you used while Gronkowski was out.

•Maurice Jones-Drew is a top-10 back.

•Reggie Bush gets off to a huge start, making him a top-5 PPR back through the season's first month, but injuries in October destroy his season.

•Eli Manning is a top-10 QB.

•Alex Smith throws 28 touchdown passes, 12 of which go to Dwayne Bowe.

• One RB on the Jets, Cardinals or Steelers finishes in the top-20.

•DeMarco Murray is a top-10 back on a per-game basis. If he plays 14-plus games, he's top-10 overall.

•Antonio Gates finishes as a top-5 TE.

• Neither the Falcons, nor the Saints win the NFC South.

•Demaryius Thomas has a better year than Brandon Marshall or Julio Jones.

•Josh Gordon returns from suspension to post a top-20 WR season.

•Rod Streater leads the Raiders in receiving yards and TDs.

•Mark Ingram scores 10-plus TDs.

•LaMichael James is a factor for the fantasy playoffs.

•Daryl Richardson outproduces DeAngelo Williams.

•Cam Newton has a better fantasy season than Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.

•Joe Flacco and the Ravens make the playoffs yet again.

• Neither Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard nor Montee Ball is the top rookie RB.

• The NFC East is the highest-scoring division in football.

• Some of these predictions are wrong.

Last year's predictions can be found here. (Scroll down). For 2011, click here and scroll.

ADP vs. Year-End Results

Like last year, let's take a look at how well preseason ADP stacks up against year-end results:

Quarterbacks

2011

2012

The data present a decent argument that you can win by taking a QB early - even if the difference in projected year-end points between Marshawn Lynch and a seventh round RB (say Ben Tate) is greater than the difference between Drew Brees and a seventh-round QB (say Tony Romo). Brees' projection is far more reliable than Lynch's, so you can bank on that positive differential over Romo with more certainty. Of course, Romo's projection is far more reliable than Tate's, but the reliability argument matters most at the top.

Running Backs

2011

Last year was a different story. Of the top-eight ADP RBs, two finished outside the top-30, four finished outside the top-20 and only one (Arian Foster) finished in the top-5.

Chances are 2013 will fall in between the extreme results of the last two seasons in terms of RB reliability, but it's a safe bet 3-4 backs in the top-10 won't finish in the top-20.

Wide Receivers

2011

Looking deeper, in 2011, the top-10 ADP WR produced five top-10 year-end finishes, but Nos. 2 (Jordy Nelson) and 4 (Victor Cruz) weren't even in the top-30 ADP.

In 2012, four of the top-10 ADP WR finished in the top-10, while three of the top-10 failed to crack the top-25. Last year, the sweet spot was 11-20, where there were five top-10 finishes, more than in the 1-10 range. But in 2011, slots 11-20 were a disaster at WR, with one top-10 finish and five outside the top-20.

Tight Ends

2011

Last year, the market got Graham and Gronkowski right, but was otherwise largely off base.

This is only two years of data, and it's possible the results are anomalous over that span. But from this sample it seems the reliability of preseason ADP is strongest at QB, then RB, then WR and then TE. That's not surprising when you consider those positions are also ordered in descending number of attempts. Fewer opportunities mean a smaller sample and, as such, more volatility.

Heading to Vegas for the NFFC

After Thursday's SXM show, I'm heading to Vegas to host the NFFC $10,000 buy-in Diamond league on Friday morning (I have assurances from both Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich that if someone fails to show, I'll take his spot, but it's not too often someone bails after paying 10K).

After that, I'm drafting in the NFFC Main Event and picking seventh, which was my preferred slot given the third-round reversal. I figure once Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Jamaal Charles are off the board, I'll get either C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Calvin Johnson or Ray Rice, any of whom I'm happy with. Then I get a mid-round pick in both Rounds 2 and 3.

But both of those events are on Friday, so I get to watch the Broncos-Ravens game from a sports book - will be taking the Ravens plus 7.5 and looking for other random props for the game.

I also might head down to the LVH for some season-long props. Here are a couple I found online:

(It's worth reading through all of them to see how the sports books essentially rank players for fantasy purposes and how those rankings differ from ADP or your own personal rankings)

• NFL MVP J.J. Watt 50:1

•Demaryius Thomas to lead NFL in receiving yards 16:1

•Steven Jackson over 7.5 rushing TDs (-130)

•Torrey Smith over 1,000 receiving yards

•Josh Gordon over 825.5 receiving yards

•Jason Witten under 92.5 receptions

•Wes Welker under 7 receiving TDs

•Calvin Johnson over 10 receiving TDs

•Reggie Wayne under 5.5 receiving TDs

•Maurice Jones-Drew over 1,000.5 rushing yards

•Alex Smith over 3350 passing yards

•Alex Smith over 19.5 TD passes

•Dwayne Bowe over 1,000.5 receiving yards

•Dwayne Bowe over six TDs.

•Stevan Ridley over 10 rushing TDs

•Mark Ingram over 6.5 rushing TDs

•Eli Manning over 4100 passing yards

•Doug Martin over 8.5 rushing TDs

•Mike Williams over six receiving TDs

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