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Pitching Value Meter: Weaver gets his Wings Again

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week of Sept. 9-15

With expanded rosters kicking in Sept. 1, probables are subject to change more than usual. Stay tuned to our fantasy news wire and projected starters for updates.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - SF (one of two remaining starts vs. SF against whom he has 1.13 ERA in 4 GS)
2. Jose Fernandez - ATL (last start for baseball's H/9 leader, NL's K/9 leader)
3. Stephen Strasburg - PHI
4. Julio Teheran - at MIA, SD (ranks behind one-start studs because of possible schedule juggling that put him here in the first place)
5. Gio Gonzalez - at NYM, PHI (ranks behind one-start starts because of recent general inconsistency)
6. Mike Minor - at MIA
7. Zack Greinke - SF (earned Year 1 of his contract in his last 11 GS: 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in 79.7 IP)
8. Cliff Lee - SD
9. Cole Hamels - at WAS
10. Patrick Corbin - at LAD (off-the-radar CG during Petit's near-perfecto is a microcosm of his overlooked brilliant season)
11. Mat Latos - at MIL
12. Homer Bailey - at MIL
13. Dillon Gee - WAS, MIA (even with a pair of 4 ER outings in the mix, 1.94 ERA in 69.7 IP over last 10)
14. Kris Medlen - at MIA, SD (I smoked Medlen in June-July when he was a hit machine, but a 2.19 ERA in last 6 is impressive)
15. Jordan Zimmermann - at NYM, PHI
16. Francisco Liriano - at TEX, CHC (waiting until late in the season to break hearts with 10, 7, 4 ER outings in his last 6 GS)
17. Shelby Miller - MIL, SEA
18. Madison Bumgarner - at LAD
19. Adam Wainwright - SEA (does CIN have his number or are there more systemic issues? We'll find out on Saturday vs. PIT; either way, can't bench him)
20. Gerrit Cole - at TEX, CHC
21. Ricky Nolasco - ARI, SF
22. Jhoulys Chacin - at SF, at ARI (ERA drops from 3.81 to 2.19 when he hits the road)
23. Ryan Vogelsong - COL, at LAD
24. Bronson Arroyo - CHC, at MIL
25. Carlos Torres - WAS, MIA (last time we trusted after two strong starts he dropped 8 ER on our faces; I'm at least a little nervous)
26. Travis Wood - at CIN, at PIT
27. Randall Delgado - at LAD, COL
28. Tony Cingrani - CHC (Cueto to pen keeps our K Machine in the rotation; has 42 K in 39 IP since the break despite outings of two and one K)
29. Joe Kelly - MIL
30. A.J. Burnett - at TEX (either amazing or terrible lately: 1, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 4, 1, 5 ER in his last nine)
31. Mike Leake - CHC
32. Charlie Morton - CHC
33. Jon Niese - WAS
34. Zack Wheeler - WAS
35. Hyun-Jin Ryu - ARI
36. Jorge de la Rosa - at SF
37. Alex Wood - at MIA (the Marlins pasted a 2.3-IP/7-ER outing on him on Sept. 1)
38. Wade Miley - COL (can't predict baseball: TOR had MLB-low wOBA vs. LHP for Aug. before crushing Miley in 1.7-IP/5-ER outing)
39. Robbie Erlin - at PHI
40. Yusmeiro Petit - COL (control always present with 7% BB, but command finally showing up)
41. Tim Lincecum - COL, at LAD
42. Tyson Ross - at ATL
43. Tyler Chatwood - at ARI
44. Roy Halladay - SD (poor opponent, but honestly, how confident are you?)
45. Nathan Eovaldi - at NYM
46. Michael Wacha - SEA
47. Yovani Gallardo - CIN
48. Marco Estrada - at STL
49. Kyle Lohse - CIN (quietly having a great year until 5 and 7 ER vs. PIT and CHC, of all teams)
50. Wily Peralta - at STL
51. Matt Cain - at LAD
52. Jacob Turner - at NYM (kind of the NL's Cosart with a great ERA, but horrible component stats)
53. Edwin Jackson - at CIN
54. Trevor Cahill - at LAD
55. Tanner Roark - at NYM (making first MLB start Saturday, stay tuned)

CAUTION

56. Lance Lynn - MIL
57. Jeff Samardzija - at CIN (if you're chasing Ks without worry of ratio repercussions, he's your guy)
58. Dan Haren - at NYM (seems like that back is flaring up again)
59. Scott Baker - at PIT
60. Juan Nicasio - at SF
61. Andrew Cashner - at PHI
62. Ian Kennedy - at ATL
63. Eric Stults - at ATL
64. Jeff Locke - CHC
65. Tyler Cloyd - SD, at WAS
66. Chris Rusin - at PIT
67. Jake Arrieta - at PIT
68. Paul Maholm - SD
69. Brandon McCarthy - COL
70. Chad Bettis - at ARI
71. Tyler Thornburg - at STL
72. Johnny Hellweg - CIN
73. Edinson Volquez - ARI, SF
74. Kyle Kendrick - at WAS
75. Burch Smith - at PHI
76. Henderson Alvarez - ATL, at NYM
77. Brian Flynn - ATL
78. Daisuke Matsuzaka - MIA

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Max Scherzer - at CWS, KC (because that's how baseball rolls: 5 IP/5 ER = ND, 7 IP/2 ER = L)
2. Yu Darvish - PIT, OAK
3. Jered Weaver - at MIN, at HOU (3 QS in 4 starts, 2.67 ERA over 27 IP since destruction in Bronx)
4. Chris Sale - DET, CLE
5. Jarrod Parker - at MIN, at TEX (2.82 ERA since May 1 in 147 IP, including 4 QS vs. TEX)
6. Anibal Sanchez - at CWS
7. Felix Hernandez - HOU
8. David Price - BOS, at MIN (recent shakiness, BOS outing put him behind some one-start studs)
9. Derek Holland - OAK
10. Chris Archer - at MIN (2-6 with 2 games left, the entire TB staff is ready to be done out west; Archer tries to rebound Saturday, Sept. 7)
11. Doug Fister - KC (classic set-it-forget-it guy because once you try to predict failures he drops seven scoreless in Fenway)
12. Ervin Santana - at CLE, at DET
13. Ubaldo Jimenez - KC, at CWS (allowed more than 3 ER twice in last 23 GS, not once in his last eight: 2.22 ERA in 48.7 IP)
14. Hisashi Iwakuma - at STL
15. Justin Verlander - KC (gets KC Saturday, Sept. 7, too)
16. Martin Perez - PIT
17. James Shields - at CLE (wow, what a season-ruiner vs. DET on Friday night)
18. Sonny Gray - at MIN (bat-missing ability has been most impressive part of his MLB debut)
19. Matt Moore - at MIN
20. Jason Vargas - at HOU (seems everyone on hot streak has pulled the rug out from under us fantasy managers)
21. Corey Kluber - at CWS (returns from DL on Saturday against the Mets)
22. Alex Cobb - BOS
23. Hiroki Kuroda - at BOS (I'm leery of all BOS starts, so these two find themselves way lower than normal)
24. John Lackey - NYY
25. Jon Lester - NYY
26. Matt Garza - PIT (his 2012 Ryan Dempster imitation is way too good)
27. Jake Peavy - at TB
28. Brad Peacock - at SEA (finally handled a lefty-heavy lineup with dismantling of OAK)
29. Taijuan Walker - HOU (his final start of the season after two solid 5-IP outings)
30. Scott Kazmir - KC
31. Chris Tillman - at TOR
32. C.J. Wilson - at TOR (Tillman, Wilson lowered because of opponent)
33. Andy Pettitte - at BAL (ugly matchup, but Pettitte is surging: 1.75 ERA in last 36 IP)
34. Mark Buehrle - LAA, BAL
35. Zach McAllister - KC, at CWS
36. Felix Doubront - at TB (fading hard in Sept. at exactly the wrong time)
37. Rick Porcello - at CWS (can rebound from Boston Massacre with outing vs. Sox team he has dominated this year)
38. Brett Oberholtzer - LAA
39. Garrett Richards - at TOR
40. Erasmo Ramirez - at STL (a lot of tough matchups for the mid-tier AL talent this week)
41. A.J. Griffin - at MIN
42. Danny Duffy - at DET (steering clear of DET as much as BOS)
43. Danny Salazar - at CWS (basically a five-and-dive guy, but steady strikeouts at least)
44. R.A. Dickey - LAA
45. Ivan Nova - at BAL, at BOS
46. CC Sabathia - at BAL, at BOS (BOS start is bad enough for these Yankees, but a trip to Camden is no cakewalk, either)
47. Wei-Yin Chen - NYY
48. Dan Straily - at TEX
49. Bartolo Colon - at TEX
50. Kevin Correia - OAK (has a 3.16 ERA in 37 IP over last six despite, including of 2-IP/6-ER shelling in KC on Aug. 5)

CAUTION

51. Clay Buchholz - at TB, NYY (not an easy draw in DL return)
52. Jarred Cosart - at SEA (season might end before 1:1 K/BB ratio fully catches up to him, but I'm still avoiding him)
53. Andrew Albers - TB
54. Andre Rienzo - CLE
55. Jeremy Hellickson - BOS
56. David Huff - at BAL (skeptical, but intrigued)
57. Miguel Gonzalez - NYY, at TOR
58. Jerome Williams - at TOR, at HOU
59. Jose Quintana - DET
60. Hector Santiago - CLE (Quintana and Santiago both get lefty killers)
61. Scott Feldman - NYY
62. Nick Tepesch - OAK
63. Bud Norris - at TOR
64. Joe Saunders - HOU
65. Jeremy Guthrie - at CLE
66. John Danks - CLE
67. Bruce Chen - at DET
68. Todd Redmond - LAA
69. Paul Clemens - LAA
70. Esmil Rogers - BAL
71. J.A. Happ - LAA
72. Jordan Lyles - at SEA
73. Erik Johnson - DET
74. Dallas Keuchel - LAA
75. Liam Hendriks - OAK, TB
76. Mike Pelfrey - OAK
77. Pedro Hernandez - LAA, TB

MLB TOP 100

1. Max Scherzer - at CWS, KC
2. Yu Darvish - PIT, OAK
3. Jered Weaver - at MIN, at HOU
4. Clayton Kershaw - SF
5. Jose Fernandez - ATL
6. Stephen Strasburg - PHI
7. Chris Sale - DET, CLE
8. Jarrod Parker - at MIN, at TEX
9. Anibal Sanchez - at CWS
10. Felix Hernandez - HOU
11. Julio Teheran - at MIA, SD
12. Gio Gonzalez - at NYM, PHI
13. Mike Minor - at MIA
14. Zack Greinke - SF
15. Cliff Lee - SD
16. Cole Hamels - at WAS
17. David Price - BOS, at MIN
18. Patrick Corbin - at LAD
19. Mat Latos - at MIL
20. Homer Bailey - at MIL
21. Dillon Gee - WAS, MIA
22. Kris Medlen - at MIA, SD
23. Jordan Zimmermann - at NYM, PHI
24. Francisco Liriano - at TEX, CHC
25. Shelby Miller - MIL, SEA
26. Madison Bumgarner - at LAD
27. Adam Wainwright - SEA
28. Derek Holland - OAK
29. Chris Archer - at MIN
30. Doug Fister - KC
31. Ervin Santana - at CLE, at DET
32. Gerrit Cole - at TEX, CHC
33. Ricky Nolasco - ARI, SF
34. Jhoulys Chacin - at SF, at ARI
35. Ryan Vogelsong - COL, at LAD
36. Bronson Arroyo - CHC, at MIL
37. Carlos Torres - WAS, MIA
38. Travis Wood - at CIN, at PIT
39. Ubaldo Jimenez - KC, at CWS
40. Hisashi Iwakuma - at STL
41. Justin Verlander - KC
42. Martin Perez - PIT
43. James Shields - at CLE
44. Sonny Gray - at MIN
45. Matt Moore - at MIN
46. Jason Vargas - at HOU
47. Corey Kluber - at CWS
48. Randall Delgado - at LAD, COL
49. Tony Cingrani - CHC
50. Joe Kelly - MIL
51. A.J. Burnett - at TEX
52. Mike Leake - CHC
53. Charlie Morton - CHC
54. Jon Niese - WAS
55. Zack Wheeler - WAS
56. Hyun-Jin Ryu - ARI
57. Jorge de la Rosa - at SF
58. Alex Cobb - BOS
59. Hiroki Kuroda - at BOS
60. John Lackey - NYY
61. Jon Lester - NYY
62. Matt Garza - PIT
63. Jake Peavy - at TB
64. Brad Peacock - at SEA
65. Taijuan Walker - HOU
66. Scott Kazmir - KC
67. Alex Wood - at MIA
68. Wade Miley - COL
69. Robbie Erlin - at PHI
70. Yusmeiro Petit - COL
71. Tim Lincecum - COL, at LAD
72. Tyson Ross - at ATL
73. Tyler Chatwood - at ARI
74. Chris Tillman - at TOR
75. C.J. Wilson - at TOR
76. Andy Pettitte - at BAL
77. Mark Buehrle - LAA, BAL
78. Zach McAllister - KC, at CWS
79. Roy Halladay - SD
80. Nathan Eovaldi - at NYM
81. Michael Wacha - SEA
82. Felix Doubront - at TB
83. Rick Porcello - at CWS
84. Brett Oberholtzer - LAA
85. Garrett Richards - at TOR
86. Erasmo Ramirez - at STL
87. A.J. Griffin - at MIN
88. Yovani Gallardo - CIN
89. Marco Estrada - at STL
90. Danny Duffy - at DET
91. Danny Salazar - at CWS
92. R.A. Dickey - LAA
93. Ivan Nova - at BAL, at BOS
94. CC Sabathia - at BAL, at BOS
95. Wei-Yin Chen - NYY
96. Kyle Lohse - CIN
97. Wily Peralta - at STL
98. Matt Cain - at LAD
99. Dan Straily - at TEX
100. Jacob Turner - at NYM

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