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Pitching Value Meter: Darvish Still Dealing

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week July 28 - Aug. 3

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - NYY, at CLE
Note: Many pitchers would kill for a 3.95 ERA and 76 Ks in 57 IP to be their "downside"
2. Felix Hernandez - at CLE
3. David Price - MIL
Note: Trade feels like a longshot at this point; 1.88 ERA and 99 Ks in last 86.3 IP
4. Chris Sale - MIN
Note: He's allowed just 1 ER while going 7-plus IP in each of his three Jul starts heading into today
5. Jon Lester - TOR
6. Max Scherzer - CWS
7. Corey Kluber - SEA
Note: Kluber's K prowess has returned with a vengeance with three 10 K gms in his last four
8. Hisashi Iwakuma - at CLE, at BAL
9. Marcus Stroman - at BOS, at HOU
Note: He has a 3.7 IP/5 ER mixed in with three 7 IP/0 ER gems in July
10. Jose Quintana - at DET, MIN
Note: Q has a 2.03 ERA, 28 Ks, and 4.0 K:BB ratio in 26.7 IP in July... with a 0-0 record
11. James Shields - MIN, at OAK
Note: After three-start blip, he has a 2.03 ERA, 28 Ks, and 9.3 K:BB ratio in 26.7 IP over his last four
12. Anibal Sanchez - CWS, COL
13. Jake Odorizzi - MIL, LAA
Note: Entered June with a 5.31 ERA ... it's at 3.97 now, plus he's a K machine
14. Sonny Gray - KC
Note: He's bounced back from his 5.40 ERA in June with a 0.95 in four July starts prior to Saturday
15. Jeff Samardzija - at HOU
16. Garrett Richards - at BAL
Note: His 4 ER vs. DET was first time above 3 since May 30 (1.66 ERA in 70.7 IP)
17. Alex Cobb - MIL
18. Scott Kazmir - KC
19. Chris Archer - LAA
Note: His volatility can be unnerving, but just stick with him because he always bounces back
20. John Lackey - NYY
21. Drew Hutchison - at HOU
Note: 2.95 ERA in 83.3 road IP (7.71 in 37.3 home IP)
22. Jesse Chavez - at HOU, KC
Note: He's not the stud from Apr-May, but his 3.61 ERA the last two months is usable
23. Trevor Bauer - SEA, TEX
24. David Phelps - at TEX, at BOS
Note: Phelps has a 3.76 ERA as a starter (3.86 in relief)
25. Dallas Keuchel - OAK
Note: Love the effort vs. MIA, let's see him handle a good team before putting him back up with the elites
26. Justin Verlander - COL
Note: At least he gets COL away from Coors (.672 OPS on road vs. RHP)
27. Rick Porcello - COL
28. Hiroki Kuroda - at TEX
Note: His 3.39 ERA in the last two months has finally brought his ERA back under 4.00
29. Tyler Skaggs - at BAL
30. Drew Smyly - CWS
31. Phil Hughes - at KC
Note: I'm growing a bit concerned with one my favorite sleepers (5.20 ERA in last 10)
32. Danny Duffy - MIN
33. Yordano Ventura - MIN
Note: The 5.8 K/9 in his last 12 outings is down from a 9.8 K/9 mark in his first 8
34. Kevin Gausman - LAA
35. Mark Buehrle - at BOS
36. Brandon McCarthy - at TEX
Note: He likely would've started to improve with ARI, too, but he has a 1.45 ERA in his first three starts with NYY

CONSIDER


37. Collin McHugh - TOR
Note: Returning from DL, but gets a neutered TOR offense
38. Jered Weaver - at BAL, at TB
Note: He's just a different pitcher on the road - 4.45 ERA, 5.9 K/9 (2.66, 7.9 at home)
39. R.A Dickey - at BOS, at HOU
Note: Interestingly it's the poor teams that kill him - 5.27 ERA vs.
40. Chris Tillman - LAA, SEA
Note: Love the 2.40 ERA in his last nine, but just 28 Ks and a 1.5 K:BB ratio
41. Chris Young - at CLE
Note: I just don't get it ... but I'm still not confident in him
42. Jason Hammel - at HOU
Note: He just hasn't been good with OAK, but this is a nice matchup
43. Matt Shoemaker - at TB
Note: 6.3 K:BB ratio in 15.3 IP with 19 Ks since 8 ER smashing at KC
44. Hector Santiago - at TB
Note: Last two months - 3.15 ERA, 35 Ks, and 3.5 K:BB ratio in 34.3 IP (6 GS, 2 relief app.)
45. Danny Salazar - TEX
Note: Not totally sold by his first start in return to MLB, but TEX isn't so scary
46. Shane Greene - at BOS
Note: Solid numbers so far, but just 19.3 IP
47. John Danks - at DET
Note: DET kills lefties, but Danks does have a 2.03 ERA vs. them in two starts
48. Wei-Yin Chen - LAA
Note: He's solid, but unspectacular and LAA kills LHP

SIT


49. Clay Buchholz - TOR, NYY
Note: Has allowed 4 ER in four of his last six (though does have a HOU shutout mixed in)
50. Jeremy Hellickson - LAA
Note: Only 4.3 IP in his debut, they may take him slowly to start; tough matchup, too
51. Bud Norris - SEA
52. Miguel Gonzalez - SEA
53. Rubby de la Rosa - TOR
Note: Love the talent, but he's not a close to a finishing product so he's tough to trust
54. Roenis Elias - at BAL
Note: 5.89 ERA in his last eight
55. Brad Peacock - OAK, TOR
56. J.A. Happ - at HOU
57. Scott Feldman - OAK, TOR
58. Yohan Pino - at CWS
59. Chris Capuano - at BOS
60. Jarred Cosart - TOR
61. Kyle Gibson - at KC, at CWS
62. Colby Lewis - NYY
63. Zach McAllister - TEX
64. Scott Carroll - MIN
65. Nick Tepesch - at CLE
66. Nick Martinez - NYY
67. Josh Tomlin - SEA
68. Jeremy Guthrie - at OAK
69. Hector Noesi - at DET
70. Kevin Correia - at KC
71. Miles Mikolas - at CLE
72. Logan Darnell - at CWS
73. Bruce Chen - at OAK
74. Jake Peavy Replacement - NYY
75. Mariners Fifth Starter - at BAL
Note: Maybe Taijuan Walker gets called back up?

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Cole Hamels - at NYM, at WAS
Note: Pitching like an ace again - 2.04 ERA, 111 Ks, 3.5 K:BB ratio in his last 105.7 IP
2. Clayton Kershaw - ATL
Note: It's stupid how good he is ...
3. Tyson Ross - STL, ATL
Note: Two home starts (1.89 ERA in 11 at Petco) is enough to vault him over some one-start aces
4. Adam Wainwright - MIL
5. Johnny Cueto - at MIA
6. Julio Teheran - at LAD
Note: He's gone 7-plus in six of his last seven (Mets roughed him up at Citi in the other)
7. Jake Arrieta - COL
8. Madison Bumgarner - PIT, at NYM
9. Zack Greinke - ATL
10. Stephen Strasburg - at MIA, PHI
Note: Neither of these next two Nats has been ace-like lately, but I still like 'em with this intra-division two-start slate
11. Jordan Zimmermann - at MIA, PHI
12. Lance Lynn - at SD, MIL
13. Doug Fister - PHI
Note: I thought we'd have actually seen his Ks go up, not down; everything else is sharp
14. Gio Gonzalez - PHI
Note: 2.50 ERA and 37 Ks in 26 IP since returning from the DL (prior to Saturday at CIN)
15. Hyun-Jin Ryu - CHC
16. Zack Wheeler - PHI
Note: Rolling of late with a 2.30 ERA, 42 Ks, and 2.8 K:BB ratio in his last 43 IP (despite a 2 IP/6 ER vs. OAK mixed in there)
17. Homer Bailey - ARI, at MIA
Note: Finally stabilizing with a 3.34 ERA in his last 9, but chiseling a 5.04 ERA takes more than (down to 4.22 now)
18. Ian Kennedy - at ATL, ATL
Note: That's not a typo, he faces them twice in a row
19. Ervin Santana - SD, at LAD
20. Kyle Lohse - at TB, at STL
21. Jesse Hahn - STL
22. Cliff Lee - at WAS
Note: I wouldn't freak out over a tough return, he should be OK
23. Tanner Roark - at MIA
Note: All five WAS pitchers in the top 23; 2.20 ERA in last 10
24. Mat Latos - at MIA
25. Jacob deGrom - SF
26. Bartolo Colon - PHI, SF
Note: Both of these could be dealt before their second start
27. A.J. Burnett - at NYM, at WAS
28. Mike Leake - ARI, at MIA
29. Josh Beckett - ATL, CHC
Note: His last five - three scoreless outings, but a 9.31 ERA in the other two
30. Yovani Gallardo - at TB
31. Wily Peralta - at STL
Note: Back-to-back gems after that 9 ER meltdown vs. PHI
32. Matt Garza - at TB
Note: Maybe he can slow down TB, his old franchise
33. Tim Hudson - PIT
Note: Hasn't been otherworldly like earlier, but you can live with his 3.48 ERA over his last 10
34. Alfredo Simon - ARI
35. Jon Niese - SF
Note: He isn't winning you your league, but he's a solid arm
36. Wade Miley - at CIN
Note: Rough showing in PHI last time out, but 3.61 ERA and 59 Ks in last 57.3 IP
37. Alex Wood - at LAD
Note: Nice work against, San Diego, buddy
38. Ryan Vogelsong - at NYM
39. Charlie Morton - at SF
40. Aaron Harang - at LAD, at SD
Note: Hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last six (2.20 ERA in 41 IP) and he gets SD!
41. Chase Anderson - at CIN, PIT
42. Henderson Alvarez - WAS, CIN
43. Jeff Locke - at ARI
Note: 2.38 ERA in 56.7 IP since recall on June 8th (5.3 IP/6 ER in only other start before that)
44. Tom Koehler - CIN

CONSIDER


45. Mike Minor - at SD
Note: All of these next three are struggling to varying degrees, but it's hard to sit anyone vs. SD ... especially AT SD
46. Shelby Miller - at SD
47. Joe Kelly - at SD
48. Tim Lincecum - PIT
Note: Seems like his surge might've been schedule-induced
49. Odrisamer Despaigne - STL
Note: The NL's Chris Young? He has a 1.31 ERA with a 1.6 K:BB ratio
50. Francisco Liriano - at SF, at ARI
51. Vance Worley - at SF, at ARI
Note: He's not great, but you could do much worse

SIT


52. Nathan Eovaldi - WAS, CIN
Note: I love Eovaldi, but he just hasn't been anywhere near the same of late
53. Dillon Gee - PHI
54. Jimmy Nelson - at STL
55. Dan Haren - CHC
Note: Haren is being skipped once in the rotation, but he's supposed to return here
56. Edinson Volquez - at ARI
57. Jake Peavy - at NYM
Note: The NL and SF specifically should improve his HRs, but let's see it first
58. Vidal Nuno - PIT
59. Brett Anderson - at CHC
60. Jorge de la Rosa - at CHC, at DET
Note: 5.37 ERA on the road is more than two runs higher than his 3.23 home mark
61. Trevor Cahill - at CIN, PIT
62. Kyle Hendricks - at LAD
63. Tsuyoshi Wada - COL, at LAD
64. Travis Wood - COL
65. Jacob Turner - CIN
66. Brad Hand - WAS
67. Kyle Kendrick - at NYM
68. Roberto Hernandez - at WAS
69. Eric Stults - ATL
70. Edwin Jackson - COL, at LAD
71. Tyler Matzek - at CHC
72. Josh Collmenter - PIT
73. Franklin Morales - at DET
74. Yohan Flande - at CHC, at DET
75. Cardinals Fifth Starter - MIL
Note: Martinez is out of the rotation, but they still only have four listed

MLB TOP 100

1. Yu Darvish - NYY, at CLE
Note: Many pitchers would kill for a 3.95 ERA and 76 Ks in 57 IP to be their "downside"
2. Cole Hamels - at NYM, at WAS
Note: Pitching like an ace again - 2.04 ERA, 111 Ks, 3.5 K:BB ratio in his last 105.7 IP
3. Clayton Kershaw - ATL
Note: It's stupid how good he is ...
4. Felix Hernandez - at CLE
5. David Price - MIL
Note: Trade feels like a longshot at this point; 1.88 ERA and 99 Ks in last 86.3 IP
6. Chris Sale - MIN
Note: He's allowed just 1 ER while going 7-plus IP in each of his three Jul starts heading into today
7. Tyson Ross - STL, ATL
Note: Two home starts (1.89 ERA in 11 at Petco) is enough to vault him over some one-start aces
8. Adam Wainwright - MIL
9. Johnny Cueto - at MIA
10. Julio Teheran - at LAD
Note: He's gone 7-plus in six of his last seven (Mets roughed him up at Citi in the other)
11. Jake Arrieta - COL
12. Jon Lester - TOR
13. Max Scherzer - CWS
14. Corey Kluber - SEA
Note: Kluber's K prowess has returned with a vengeance with three 10 K gms in his last four
15. Hisashi Iwakuma - at CLE, at BAL
16. Marcus Stroman - at BOS, at HOU
Note: He has a 3.7 IP/5 ER mixed in with three 7 IP/0 ER gems in July
17. Jose Quintana - at DET, MIN
Note: Q has a 2.03 ERA, 28 Ks, and 4.0 K:BB ratio in 26.7 IP in July... with a 0-0 record
18. Madison Bumgarner - PIT, at NYM
19. Zack Greinke - ATL
20. James Shields - MIN, at OAK
Note: After three-start blip, he has a 2.03 ERA, 28 Ks, and 9.3 K:BB ratio in 26.7 IP over his last four
21. Anibal Sanchez - CWS, COL
22. Stephen Strasburg - at MIA, PHI
Note: Neither of these next two Nats has been ace-like lately, but I still like 'em with this intra-division two-start slate
23. Jordan Zimmermann - at MIA, PHI
24. Lance Lynn - at SD, MIL
25. Jake Odorizzi - MIL, LAA
Note: Entered June with a 5.31 ERA ... it's at 3.97 now, plus he's a K machine
26. Sonny Gray - KC
Note: He's bounced back from his 5.40 ERA in June with a 0.95 in four July starts prior to Saturday
27. Jeff Samardzija - at HOU
28. Garrett Richards - at BAL
Note: His 4 ER vs. DET was first time above 3 since May 30 (1.66 ERA in 70.7 IP)
29. Alex Cobb - MIL
30. Scott Kazmir - KC
31. Chris Archer - LAA
Note: His volatility can be unnerving, but just stick with him because he always bounces back
32. Doug Fister - PHI
Note: I thought we'd have actually seen his Ks go up, not down; everything else is sharp
33. Gio Gonzalez - PHI
Note: 2.50 ERA and 37 Ks in 26 IP since returning from the DL (prior to Saturday at CIN)
34. Hyun-Jin Ryu - CHC
35. Zack Wheeler - PHI
Note: Rolling of late with a 2.30 ERA, 42 Ks, and 2.8 K:BB ratio in his last 43 IP (despite a 2 IP/6 ER vs. OAK mixed in there)
36. Homer Bailey - ARI, at MIA
Note: Finally stabilizing with a 3.34 ERA in his last 9, but chiseling a 5.04 ERA takes more than (down to 4.22 now)
37. Ian Kennedy - at ATL, ATL
Note: That's not a typo, he faces them twice in a row
38. Ervin Santana - SD, at LAD
39. Kyle Lohse - at TB, at STL
40. Jesse Hahn - STL
41. Cliff Lee - at WAS
Note: I wouldn't freak out over a tough return, he should be OK
42. Tanner Roark - at MIA
Note: All five WAS pitchers in the top 23; 2.20 ERA in last 10
43. Mat Latos - at MIA
44. Jacob deGrom - SF
45. Bartolo Colon - PHI, SF
Note: Both of these could be dealt before their second start
46. A.J. Burnett - at NYM, at WAS
47. Mike Leake - ARI, at MIA
48. Josh Beckett - ATL, CHC
Note: His last five - three scoreless outings, but a 9.31 ERA in the other two
49. John Lackey - NYY
50. Drew Hutchison - at HOU
Note: 2.95 ERA in 83.3 road IP (7.71 in 37.3 home IP)
51. Jesse Chavez - at HOU, KC
Note: He's not the stud from Apr-May, but his 3.61 ERA the last two months is usable
52. Trevor Bauer - SEA, TEX
53. David Phelps - at TEX, at BOS
Note: Phelps has a 3.76 ERA as a starter (3.86 in relief)
54. Yovani Gallardo - at TB
55. Wily Peralta - at STL
Note: Back-to-back gems after that 9 ER meltdown vs. PHI
56. Matt Garza - at TB
Note: Maybe he can slow down TB, his old franchise
57. Tim Hudson - PIT
Note: Hasn't been otherworldly like earlier, but you can live with his 3.48 ERA over his last 10
58. Alfredo Simon - ARI
59. Dallas Keuchel - OAK
Note: Love the effort vs. MIA, let's see him handle a good team before putting him back up with the elites
60. Justin Verlander - COL
Note: At least he gets COL away from Coors (.672 OPS on road vs. RHP)
61. Rick Porcello - COL
62. Hiroki Kuroda - at TEX
Note: His 3.39 ERA in the last two months has finally brought his ERA back under 4.00
63. Tyler Skaggs - at BAL
64. Drew Smyly - CWS
65. Phil Hughes - at KC
Note: I'm growing a bit concerned with one my favorite sleepers (5.20 ERA in last 10)
66. Danny Duffy - MIN
67. Yordano Ventura - MIN
Note: The 5.8 K/9 in his last 12 outings is down from a 9.8 K/9 mark in his first 8
68. Kevin Gausman - LAA
69. Mark Buehrle - at BOS
70. Jon Niese - SF
Note: He isn't winning you your league, but he's a solid arm
71. Wade Miley - at CIN
Note: Rough showing in PHI last time out, but 3.61 ERA and 59 Ks in last 57.3 IP
72. Alex Wood - at LAD
Note: Nice work against, San Diego, buddy
73. Ryan Vogelsong - at NYM
74. Charlie Morton - at SF
75. Aaron Harang - at LAD, at SD
Note: Hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last six (2.20 ERA in 41 IP) and he gets SD!
76. Chase Anderson - at CIN, PIT
77. Henderson Alvarez - WAS, CIN
78. Jeff Locke - at ARI
Note: 2.38 ERA in 56.7 IP since recall on June 8th (5.3 IP/6 ER in only other start before that)
79. Tom Koehler - CIN
80. Mike Minor - at SD
Note: All of these next three are struggling to varying degrees, but it's hard to sit anyone vs. SD ... especially AT SD
81. Shelby Miller - at SD
82. Joe Kelly - at SD
83. Tim Lincecum - PIT
Note: Seems like his surge might've been schedule-induced
84. Odrisamer Despaigne - STL
Note: The NL's Chris Young? He has a 1.31 ERA with a 1.6 K:BB ratio
85. Francisco Liriano - at SF, at ARI
86. Vance Worley - at SF, at ARI
Note: He's not great, but you could do much worse
87. Brandon McCarthy - at TEX
Note: He likely would've started to improve with ARI, too, but he has a 1.45 ERA in his first three starts with NYY
88. Collin McHugh - TOR
Note: Returning from DL, but gets a neutered TOR offense
89. Jered Weaver - at BAL, at TB
Note: He's just a different pitcher on the road - 4.45 ERA, 5.9 K/9 (2.66, 7.9 at home)
90. R.A Dickey - at BOS, at HOU
Note: Interestingly it's the poor teams that kill him - 5.27 ERA vs.
91. Chris Tillman - LAA, SEA
Note: Love the 2.40 ERA in his last nine, but just 28 Ks and a 1.5 K:BB ratio
92. Chris Young - at CLE
Note: I just don't get it ... but I'm still not confident in him
93. Jason Hammel - at HOU
Note: He just hasn't been good with OAK, but this is a nice matchup
94. Matt Shoemaker - at TB
Note: 6.3 K:BB ratio in 15.3 IP with 19 Ks since 8 ER smashing at KC
95. Hector Santiago - at TB
Note: Last two months - 3.15 ERA, 35 Ks, and 3.5 K:BB ratio in 34.3 IP (6 GS, 2 relief app.)
96. Danny Salazar - TEX
Note: Not totally sold by his first start in return to MLB, but TEX isn't so scary
97. Shane Greene - at BOS
Note: Solid numbers so far, but just 19.3 IP
98. John Danks - at DET
Note: DET kills lefties, but Danks does have a 2.03 ERA vs. them in two starts
99. Nathan Eovaldi - WAS, CIN
Note: I love Eovaldi, but he just hasn't been anywhere near the same of late
100. Clay Buchholz - TOR, NYY
Note: Has allowed 4 ER in four of his last six (though does have a HOU shutout mixed in)