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Pitching Value Meter: Gray Gets All A's

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week Aug. 4-10

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Felix Hernandez - ATL, CWS
Note: I mean, he ... I just ... I can't ... #dominant
2. David Price - at NYY, at TOR
Note: Joins his new team with a two-start week
3. Max Scherzer - at NYY, at TOR
4. Corey Kluber - CIN, at NYY
Note: Closed Apr w/a 4.14 ERA, 2.15 ERA in 121.3 IP since
5. Yu Darvish - at HOU
6. Chris Sale - TEX
7. Jon Lester - MIN
Note: Takes a 1.91 ERA and 5.1 K:BB ratio in 75.3 home IP to OAK
8. Garrett Richards - at LAD, BOS
9. Jeff Samardzija - TB, MIN
10. Alex Cobb - at OAK, at CHC
11. Sonny Gray - TB
Note: On an absurd run with a 1.07 ERA in his last six starts (42 IP)
12. Hisashi Iwakuma - CWS
13. Scott Kazmir - MIN
14. James Shields - SF
Note: Quietly back on track with a 1.93 ERA in his last five starts (32.7 IP)
15. Jose Quintana - at SEA
Note: Also on fire with a 1.84 ERA in his last eight starts (53.7 IP)
16. Dallas Keuchel - at PHI, TEX
17. Phil Hughes - SD, at OAK
Note: 2.67 FIP and 11-start run of 2.27 ERA earlier in the year are signs of a better pitcher than his 4.12 ERA
18. Chris Archer - at CHC
19. Jake Odorizzi - at CHC
Note: When season stats mislead: his 3.80 ERA is made up by a 6.83 through six and a 2.83 in his last 15
20. Jered Weaver - BOS
21. Justin Verlander - at NYY
22. Marcus Stroman - DET
Note: On a 3-win streak during which he's allowed 1 ER in 21 IP (0.43 ERA)
23. Anibal Sanchez - at TOR
Note: Labored through a miserable 6.03 ERA in July, but he's much better than that
24. Yordano Ventura - at ARI
25. Collin McHugh - at PHI
26. Danny Duffy - at ARI, SF
Note: Had an impressive 3.3 K:BB ratio in eight starts before a 6 BB effort v. MIN
27. Kevin Gausman - at WAS, STL
Note: He's improving - 6.4 K9, 2.0 K:BB in July; 5.5, 1.6 in five starts before July
28. Brandon McCarthy - DET, CLE
29. Hiroki Kuroda - DET, CLE
Note: He's been his usually self the last three months (3.63 ERA, 3.6 K:BB in 106.7 IP)
30. John Danks - TEX, at SEA
31. Rick Porcello - at NYY
Note: Lost all of his K gains from '13, but inducing gobs of weak contact and walking nobody
32. Drew Smyly - at OAK
Note: He's a changeup away from being really good, can TB give it to him?
33. Matt Shoemaker - LAD
34. David Phelps - CLE
35. R.A. Dickey - DET
36. C.J. Wilson - LAD
Note: We get to see him Saturday before having to decide about activation, but he wasn't great before the injury
37. Mark Buehrle - BAL, DET
38. Jason Hammel - TB, MIN
Note: Did he just forget how to pitch? I think it's still in there somewhere
39. Danny Salazar - at CIN
Note: I'm dipping my toe back into the waters (2.00 ERA, 17 Ks, 6 BB in 18 IP)
40. Roenis Elias - CWS
41. Jason Vargas - SF
42. James Paxton - CWS
Note: Another one we can preview before activation and while he was great pre-injury, it was for two starts in April
43. Wei-Yin Chen - at TOR

CONSIDER


44. Drew Hutchison - BAL
Note: His wildly disparate home/road splits are venturing to meet in the middle, which means home improvement coming (you have to reply "I don't think so, Tim" if you disagree)
45. Trevor Bauer - at NYY
46. Chris Young - ATL
Note: If the 7.0 K9 and 4.0 K:BB ratio from his last nine are real, he's something, but I'm just so skeptical that they're real
47. Hector Santiago - at LAD, BOS
Note: His last 12 app. (7 starts) - 2.64 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 44.3 IP
48. Rubby De La Rosa - at STL, at LAA
49. Chris Tillman - STL
Note: Has a 2.63 ERA in his last 10 starts, but just 34 Ks in 65 IP
50. Joe Kelly - at STL
Note: He's got great stuff, but can he properly deploy it?
51. J.A. Happ - BAL
Note: 1.96 ERA in his last three starts (18.3 IP)

SIT


52. Brett Oberholtzer - TEX
53. Brad Peacock - at PHI
54. Brandon Workman - at STL
55. Ubaldo Jimenez - STL
56. Scott Feldman - TEX
57. Jeremy Hellickson - at OAK
58. Bud Norris - at TOR
59. Clay Buchholz - at LAA
60. Kyle Gibson - at OAK
61. Miguel Gonzalez - at TOR
62. Shane Greene - DET
63. Allen Webster - at LAA
64. Chris Capuano - DET
65. Colby Lewis - at CWS
66. Yohan Pino - at OAK
67. Nick Tepesch - at CWS
68. Nick Martinez - at CWS, at HOU
69. Josh Tomlin - CIN, at NYY
70. Jeremy Guthrie - at ARI
71. Hector Noesi - TEX, at SEA
72. T.J. House - at CIN
73. Kevin Correia - SD
74. Scott Carroll - at SEA
75. Miles Mikolas - at HOU
76. Logan Darnell - at OAK

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - LAA, at MIL
Note: I haven't the words ...
2. Johnny Cueto - at CLE, MIA
3. Zack Greinke - LAA, at MIL
Note: He has a 2.11 ERA, 52 Ks, and 5.8 K:BB ratio in his last six starts (42.7 IP)
4. Julio Teheran - at SEA
5. Adam Wainwright - BOS
Note: Last time he allowed 7 ER, he went on a seven-start, 1.03 ERA run
6. Cole Hamels - NYM
7. Madison Bumgarner - at KC
8. Stephen Strasburg - at ATL
9. Zack Wheeler - at WAS, at PHI
Note: He's been dominant lately with a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts
10. Lance Lynn - BOS, at BAL
11. Tanner Roark - BAL, at ATL
Note: He went 7 IP in each of his five July starts w/a 2.06 ERA and 5.8 K:BB ratio
12. Gio Gonzalez - NYM, at ATL
13. Alfredo Simon - at CLE, MIA
Note: Hasn't slowed down one bit w/a 2.97 ERA in 30.3 July IP
14. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM
15. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at LAA
16. Tyson Ross - at PIT
Note: Has a 1.89 ERA in his last three road starts, giving him a 3.53 ERA
17. Jesse Hahn - at MIN
18. Mat Latos - CLE
19. Homer Bailey - CLE
Note: Has a 2.00 ERA in his last five starts and a 3.50 ERA since May 1st
20. Jake Arrieta - at COL
Note: The way he's pitching, I'm not sure even Coors can mess with him
21. Ervin Santana - WAS
22. John Lackey - at BAL
23. Doug Fister - NYM
Note: He's been kind of a Porcello-plus w/a 2.39 ERA in his last 10, but just 4.8 K9
24. Wily Peralta - SF
25. Matt Garza - LAD
Note: Back-to-back 1 ER outings after that awful 0.3 IP/5 ER dud
26. Ian Kennedy - at PIT
Note: Surprisingly wasn't dealt at the deadline, but that's good for us
27. Josh Beckett - at MIL
28. Alex Wood - SEA
Note: Since returning to the rotation - 3.12 ERA, 3.5 K:BB ratio in 43.3 IP
29. Wade Miley - KC, COL
Note: Posted a 2.45 ERA with 36 Ks in 40.3 IP in six July starts
30. Charlie Morton - MIA, SD
Note: It doesn't get much better than this matchup-wise
31. Tim Hudson - at NYM, at KC
Note: His 3.52 ERA from his last 11 starts is the level we should expect the rest of the way
32. Yovani Gallardo - SF
33. Kyle Lohse - LAD
34. Francisco Liriano - SD
Note: Since coming off of the DL - 1.96 ERA, 27 Ks, and 2.3 K:BB ratio in 23 IP
35. Bartolo Colon - at PHI
36. Jacob deGrom - at WAS
Note: Gave up 6 ER on June 16th, but just 7 ER in his last seven starts (46 IP)
37. Ryan Vogelsong - at MIL
Note: Hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last seven starts (2.95 ERA in 42.7 IP)
38. Jake Peavy - at MIL
Note: New environs should play better for his 7.3 K9 and 2.2 K:BB ratio
39. Jimmy Nelson - SF
Note: Settling in nicely with a 3.46 ERA and 11 Ks in his last two starts (13 IP)
40. Jon Niese - at WAS
41. Mike Leake - MIA
Note: He is what he is - a mid-3.00s ERA guy who can put together some very impressive stretches
42. Vance Worley - SD
43. Tom Koehler - at PIT
Note: He has a 3.45 ERA in his last eight (47 IP) despite a 3 IP/7 ER start mixed in
44. A.J. Burnett - NYM
45. Aaron Harang - WAS
Note: He's been solid this year, which has definitely surprised me
46. Chase Anderson - COL
47. Jeff Locke - MIA
Note: Back-to-back bombs have dented the ERA, but I like this matchup
48. Brad Hand - at PIT, at CIN
Note: He has a 2.11 ERA in his last three (21.3 IP), but just 10 Ks and 5 BB

CONSIDER


49. Tim Lincecum - at MIL, at KC
Note: Can we get some more SD starts on his schedule?
50. Jordan Lyles - CHC, at ARI
Note: Looked solid before his injury, but how much will 2 mos. Off affect him?
51. Kyle Hendricks - at COL
Note: Like what he's been doing lately, but probably not in Coors

SIT


52. Mike Minor - WAS
53. Dan Haren - at LAA
54. Nathan Eovaldi - at CIN
55. Shelby Miller - BOS
56. Dillon Gee - SF, at PHI
Note: He's been horrific since returning - 6.08 ERA in 23.7 IP
57. Jarred Cosart - at PIT
58. Travis Wood - at COL, TB
59. Justin Masterson - at BAL
Note: This could be good, but let's see something first
60. Jacob Turner - at CIN
61. Tsuyoshi Wada - TB
62. Edinson Volquez - MIA
63. David Buchanan - HOU
64. Jorge De La Rosa - at ARI
65. Odrisamer Despaigne - at MIN
66. Tyler Matzek - at ARI
67. Eric Stults - at PIT
68. Edwin Jackson - TB
69. Brett Anderson - CHC
70. Kyle Kendrick - HOU, NYM
71. Vidal Nuno - KC
72. Trevor Cahill - COL
73. Josh Collmenter - KC
74. Roberto Hernandez - HOU
75. Franklin Morales - CHC

MLB TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - LAA, at MIL
Note: I haven't the words ...
2. Felix Hernandez - ATL, CWS
Note: I mean, he ... I just ... I can't ... #dominant
3. Johnny Cueto - at CLE, MIA
4. Zack Greinke - LAA, at MIL
Note: He has a 2.11 ERA, 52 Ks, and 5.8 K:BB ratio in his last six starts (42.7 IP)
5. David Price - at NYY, at TOR
Note: Joins his new team with a two-start week
6. Max Scherzer - at NYY, at TOR
7. Corey Kluber - CIN, at NYY
Note: Closed Apr w/a 4.14 ERA, 2.15 ERA in 121.3 IP since
8. Yu Darvish - at HOU
9. Chris Sale - TEX
10. Jon Lester - MIN
Note: Takes a 1.91 ERA and 5.1 K:BB ratio in 75.3 home IP to OAK
11. Julio Teheran - at SEA
12. Adam Wainwright - BOS
Note: Last time he allowed 7 ER, he went on a seven-start, 1.03 ERA run
13. Cole Hamels - NYM
14. Madison Bumgarner - at KC
15. Stephen Strasburg - at ATL
16. Zack Wheeler - at WAS, at PHI
Note: He's been dominant lately with a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts
17. Lance Lynn - BOS, at BAL
18. Tanner Roark - BAL, at ATL
Note: He went 7 IP in each of his five July starts w/a 2.06 ERA and 5.8 K:BB ratio
19. Garrett Richards - at LAD, BOS
20. Jeff Samardzija - TB, MIN
21. Alex Cobb - at OAK, at CHC
22. Gio Gonzalez - NYM, at ATL
23. Alfredo Simon - at CLE, MIA
Note: Hasn't slowed down one bit w/a 2.97 ERA in 30.3 July IP
24. Sonny Gray - TB
Note: On an absurd run with a 1.07 ERA in his last six starts (42 IP)
25. Hisashi Iwakuma - CWS
26. Scott Kazmir - MIN
27. James Shields - SF
Note: Quietly back on track with a 1.93 ERA in his last five starts (32.7 IP)
28. Jose Quintana - at SEA
Note: Also on fire with a 1.84 ERA in his last eight starts (53.7 IP)
29. Dallas Keuchel - at PHI, TEX
30. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM
31. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at LAA
32. Tyson Ross - at PIT
Note: Has a 1.89 ERA in his last three road starts, giving him a 3.53 ERA
33. Jesse Hahn - at MIN
34. Mat Latos - CLE
35. Homer Bailey - CLE
Note: Has a 2.00 ERA in his last five starts and a 3.50 ERA since May 1st
36. Jake Arrieta - at COL
Note: The way he's pitching, I'm not sure even Coors can mess with him
37. Ervin Santana - WAS
38. Phil Hughes - SD, at OAK
Note: 2.67 FIP and 11-start run of 2.27 ERA earlier in the year are signs of a better pitcher than his 4.12 ERA
39. Chris Archer - at CHC
40. Jake Odorizzi - at CHC
Note: When season stats mislead: his 3.80 ERA is made up by a 6.83 through six and a 2.83 in his last 15
41. Jered Weaver - BOS
42. Justin Verlander - at NYY
43. Marcus Stroman - DET
Note: On a 3-win streak during which he's allowed 1 ER in 21 IP (0.43 ERA)
44. Anibal Sanchez - at TOR
Note: Labored through a miserable 6.03 ERA in July, but he's much better than that
45. Yordano Ventura - at ARI
46. Collin McHugh - at PHI
47. John Lackey - at BAL
48. Doug Fister - NYM
Note: He's been kind of a Porcello-plus w/a 2.39 ERA in his last 10, but just 4.8 K9
49. Wily Peralta - SF
50. Matt Garza - LAD
Note: Back-to-back 1 ER outings after that awful 0.3 IP/5 ER dud
51. Ian Kennedy - at PIT
Note: Surprisingly wasn't dealt at the deadline, but that's good for us
52. Josh Beckett - at MIL
53. Alex Wood - SEA
Note: Since returning to the rotation - 3.12 ERA, 3.5 K:BB ratio in 43.3 IP
54. Wade Miley - KC, COL
Note: Posted a 2.45 ERA with 36 Ks in 40.3 IP in six July starts
55. Charlie Morton - MIA, SD
Note: It doesn't get much better than this matchup-wise
56. Tim Hudson - at NYM, at KC
Note: His 3.52 ERA from his last 11 starts is the level we should expect the rest of the way
57. Danny Duffy - at ARI, SF
Note: Had an impressive 3.3 K:BB ratio in eight starts before a 6 BB effort v. MIN
58. Kevin Gausman - at WAS, STL
Note: He's improving - 6.4 K9, 2.0 K:BB in July; 5.5, 1.6 in five starts before July
59. Brandon McCarthy - DET, CLE
60. Hiroki Kuroda - DET, CLE
Note: He's been his usually self the last three months (3.63 ERA, 3.6 K:BB in 106.7 IP)
61. John Danks - TEX, at SEA
62. Yovani Gallardo - SF
63. Kyle Lohse - LAD
64. Francisco Liriano - SD
Note: Since coming off of the DL - 1.96 ERA, 27 Ks, and 2.3 K:BB ratio in 23 IP
65. Bartolo Colon - at PHI
66. Jacob deGrom - at WAS
Note: Gave up 6 ER on June 16th, but just 7 ER in his last seven starts (46 IP)
67. Ryan Vogelsong - at MIL
Note: Hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last seven starts (2.95 ERA in 42.7 IP)
68. Rick Porcello - at NYY
Note: Lost all of his K gains from '13, but inducing gobs of weak contact and walking nobody
69. Drew Smyly - at OAK
Note: He's a changeup away from being really good, can TB give it to him?
70. Matt Shoemaker - LAD
71. David Phelps - CLE
72. R.A. Dickey - DET
73. C.J. Wilson - LAD
Note: We get to see him Saturday before having to decide about activation, but he wasn't great before the inj.
74. Jake Peavy - at MIL
Note: New environs should play better for his 7.3 K9 and 2.2 K:BB ratio
75. Jimmy Nelson - SF
Note: Settling in nicely with a 3.46 ERA and 11 Ks in his last two starts (13 IP)
76. Jon Niese - at WAS
77. Mike Leake - MIA
Note: He is what he is - a mid-3.00s ERA guy who can put together some very impressive stretches
78. Vance Worley - SD
79. Tom Koehler - at PIT
Note: He has a 3.45 ERA in his last eight (47 IP) despite a 3 IP/7 ER start mixed in
80. Mark Buehrle - BAL, DET
81. Jason Hammel - TB, MIN
Note: Did he just forget how to pitch? I think it's still in there somewhere
82. Danny Salazar - at CIN
Note: I'm dipping my toe back into the waters (2.00 ERA, 17 Ks, 6 BB in 18 IP)
83. Roenis Elias - CWS
84. Jason Vargas - SF
85. James Paxton - CWS
Note: Another one we can preview before activation and while he was great pre-injury, it was for two starts in April
86. Wei-Yin Chen - at TOR
87. A.J. Burnett - NYM
88. Aaron Harang - WAS
Note: He's been solid this year, which has definitely surprised me
89. Chase Anderson - COL
90. Jeff Locke - MIA
Note: Back-to-back bombs have dented the ERA, but I like this matchup
91. Brad Hand - at PIT, at CIN
Note: He has a 2.11 ERA in his last three (21.3 IP), but just 10 Ks and 5 BB
92. Tim Lincecum - at MIL, at KC
Note: Can we get some more SD starts on his schedule?
93. Drew Hutchison - BAL
Note: His wildly disparate home/road splits are venturing to meet in the middle which means home improvement coming (you have to reply "I don't think so, Tim" if you disagree)
94. Trevor Bauer - at NYY
95. Chris Young - ATL
Note: If the 7.0 K9 and 4.0 K:BB ratio from his last nine are real, he's something, but I'm just so skeptical that they're real
96. Hector Santiago - at LAD, BOS
Note: His last 12 app. (7 starts) - 2.64 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 44.3 IP
97. Rubby De La Rosa - at STL, at LAA
98. Chris Tillman - STL
Note: Has a 2.63 ERA in his last 10 starts, but just 34 Ks in 65 IP
99. Joe Kelly - at STL
Note: He's got great stuff, but can he properly deploy it?
100. J.A. Happ - BAL
Note: 1.96 ERA in his last three starts (18.3 IP)